The final event of the PGA Tour season is finally here as we head to North Carolina and Sedgefield Country Club. Sedgefield is a Par 70 which measures just over 7,100 yards and requires accuracy off the tee and the ability to hit small undulating greens in regulation.
Because the greens are small, proximity to the hole should be an important stat to target this week as players will need to either drop dimes next to the pin, or hit a specific undulation and watch the ball roll towards the hole.
Because of this nuance on the greens, I think knowing how to play each hole is important and, therefore, course history should be as well. We’ve seen repeat winners here in Davis Love III, Brandt Snedeker over the years and while I’m not comparing this course to Augusta, I think the same skillset that’s required to play well at Augusta should be considered here as well considering who has been a contender at both over the past 10 years – Sneds (2x winner), Patrick Reed (winner of both events), Sergio Garcia (winner of both events), Ryan Moore (winner here, contender through 54 holes on multiple occasions at The Masters), and Jordan Spieth (winner at Augusta, runner-up here).
Conversely, good putters have been the type of players who have won here as well (with the exception of Sergio & Si Woo), so targeting guys who have above baseline tee to green games and are typically known as good putters would be my way to attack lineups.
o The Course
· Sedgefield Country Club [Ross Course]
· Par 70
· 7,100 yards
· Bermuda greens
o Location: Greensboro, NC
o Corollary Courses/Performances:
o Past Champions:
· 2018: Brandt Snedeker -21 over Webb Simpson & CT Pan
- 2017: Henrik Stenson -22 over Ollie Schneiderjans
- 2016: Si Woo Kim -21 over Luke Donald
- 2015: Davis Love III -17 over Jason Gore
- 2014: Camilo Villegas -17 over Bill Haas & Freddie Jacobson
KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – SG: Ball Striking (OTT + APP), Birdie or Better %, Par 5 Scoring
o Important – SG: P, P4 Scoring 400-450, APP 150-175 yards, 175-200+, Scrambling
THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS
- Webb Simpson (DK $11,200)
· Course History: 2nd– 3rd– 72nd– 6th
· Form: 2nd– 30th– DNP – DNP
· Stats:102nd– SG: OTT, 15th– SG: APP, 12th– SG: P, 17th– SG: T2G
· Analysis: He needed a low round on Sunday to nab the runner-up finish last year, and he did just that, but ultimately came up one stroke shy of getting into a playoff with Sneds. Simpson’s runner-up last week paired with his elite course history should have him as a chalky play in all formats this week.
- Brandt Snedeker (DK $10,000): The two-time Wyndham champ returns to defend his title this year and has gained three strokes less than Webb over the years. He didn’t play here in 2017, but has two Top 5’s in his last three tries (prior to winning last year) and comes in off a middling performance at the St. Jude where he finished T27.
- Bill Haas (DK $7,600): Haas used his runner-up finish here in 2014 to springboard himself through the FedEx Cup playoffs and has caught some form as of late, albeit in weaker field events. That being said, finding form on Tour can have a positive effect on his overall mindset which should make Bill a favorite value play this week.
- Johnson Wagner (DK $6,600)
· Course History: 33rd– 24th– 5th– MC
· Form: 25th– MC – 37th– 23rd
· Stats: 160th– SG: OTT, 135th– SG: APP, 31st– SG: P, 175th– SG: T2G
· Analysis: Wagner’s form has been decent enough to give a look in all formats over his past four events and the course history aligns with his form as he’s had one good outlier finish and one bad in his last four tries. He seems like an average floor, average ceiling play whose best suited for cash games this week.
- Chez Reavie (DK $9,300): Winner this year who’s accurate off the tee, strong on approaches and isn’t a terrible putter. I could think of a ton of players who will get touted this week who only hit one or two of those categories listed above and Reavie won’t be one of them. He’s firmly in play for both cash & GPPs this week.
- Cameron Smith (DK $9,000): 12th & 20th in his last two, both of which were strong field events. His course history is a compliment sandwich of 7th – MC – 18th which means he’ll probably be too popular for my liking this week and ultimately someone I’ll end up fading in my one lineup. If I was someone who made more than one lineup, I’d have him pegged for about 10-15% exposure.
- Jonas Blixt (DK $6,600)
· Course History: 36th– MC – 33rd– 10th
· Form: 48th– DNP – DNP – MC
· Stats:101st– SG: OTT, 123rd– SG: APP, 71st– SG: P, 116th– SG: T2G
· Analysis: Blixt is the boom or bust play we’re looking for in GPPs this week. He has solid bermuda grass putting splits and plays an aggressive “all or nothing” type of game where he could be the guy we need to take us to the promised land and bink a GPP.
- Doc Redman (DK $7,600): Redman’s strength lies in his off the tee play. He’s a better putter on bermuda thus far, but it’s too early to tell if he’s going to be a massive split putter or not. It’s tough to draw much from his performances this year because of the fields and type of courses he’s played, but his T20 at The Open should indicate that the skillset is strong in Doc and he has made a ton of birdies when playing on courses that give them up.
- Roberto Castro (DK $6,500): DNP – 28th– 20th – 66th is his course history at Sedgefield the last four years and his lead in form of DNP – 22nd – 26th – 46th mirrors the same sentiment. He looks like a solid cash and someone we could get low owned in GPPs. Hopefully he can continue his solid play.
CONTRARIAN CORE (GPP PLAYS)
- Patrick Reed (DK $9,700): Last week’s T12 finish was solid enough for me to endorse him this week. He’s been trending upwards the past month, and even though his ownership will probably be higher than we’d like, we’re still going to make sure we’ve got a ton of exposure to the former winner of this event.
- Billy Horschel (DK $9,600): We’re still on bermuda greens and on a course where accuracy off the tee is important which puts BillyHo on our radars this week following his T9 finish last week. He comes in a bit more expensive, but that’s to be expected considering the field.
- Scott Piercy (DK $8,100): He probably shouldn’t be this cheap in this field, but here we are. Piercy’s ball striking has been typical of his baseline as he’s a great player with his irons. The putter has also been around his baseline as we all know how horrendous of a putter he is so setting our expectations low for him this week will be a key factor in whether or not we’ll be on tilt when he’s missing 5’ birdie putts.
- Si Woo Kim (DK $7,000): He’s always a better bet than DFS play, but we’re making an exception for Si Woo this week, primarily because I don’t like a lot of the options around this price range, especially when considering upside. He’s missed the cut twice here, but did win in his only made cut, and we know when he’s dialed in he’s lights out with the irons.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!
– Pari (@hitthehighdraw)