The St. Jude Invitational gets bumped from being an after-thought to a WGC event this week (no cuts). With this event now after a major instead of before, scheduling is no longer a concern, and it’s a course that most of the field has played before.
We’re back in the south which means we’re back on bermuda greens for the first time in a couple months. Target your good bermuda green putters this week.
The course features fairways that are fairly tough to hit, but not in the traditional sense. They’re tough to hit, but it’s more about hitting your spots so the ball doesn’t run out into the rough or one of the many water hazards (water hazards on ten holes, and they definitely are in play).
We’ve got some corollary courses that have a strong connection to TPC Southwind, so make sure you’re looking at play on those courses to help you determine who you’re going to play outside of who I’ve recommended.
For One & Done’s, if you haven’t burned any of the top guys and you’re not planning on using them in the playoffs, now would be the time to do so, especially DJ.
If your league doesn’t go through the playoffs, you have just this week and next left on the schedule and most of the big names won’t be at the Wyndham, so now’s your chance to use the top-tier guys.
o The Course
· TPC Southwind
· Par 70
· 7,200 yards
· Bermuda greens
o Location:Memphis, TN
o Corollary Courses/Performances: Waialae CC, East Lake GC (small correlation in yardage, Bermuda greens & water), OHL Mayakoba, Puerto Rico Open
o Past Champions:
- 2018: Dustin Johnson -19 over Andrew Putnum
- 2017: Daniel Berger -10 over Whee Kim & Charl Schwartzel
- 2016: Daniel Berger -13 over Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson & Steve Stricker
- 2015: Fabian Gomez -13 over Greg Owen
- 2014: Ben Crane -10 over Troy Merritt
KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – SG: Ball Striking/APP, Birdie or Better %, Par 5 Scoring
o Important – SG: P, Scrambling, GIR, P4 Scoring 450-500y, APP 150-175y
THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS
Phil Mickelson (DK $7,300)
· Course History: 12th– 9th– 2nd– 3rd
· Form: MC – DNP – MC – DNP
· Stats: 138th– SG: OTT, 117th– SG: APP, 146th– SG: P, 120th– SG: T2G
· Analysis: Phil’s had a pretty poor summer but coming back to Southwind for a no-cut event should put him in a good place. He missed the cut last week by a mile, so he should be well rested both mentally and physically after playing just two rounds. He’ll probably be quite chalky in all contests even after missing his last three cuts in a row.
Brooks Koepka (DK $11,600): 30th – 37th – 2nd – 3rd the last four years here. His performance in this year’s WGC events has been similar to what you’d expect in regular Tour events (27th– 56th), but prior to that he finished 5th, 6th and 17th at the Bridgestone and 16th & 2nd at the HSBC. He obviously has some upside, but he was vocal about being drained after the US Open so there’s some concern about fatigue again this week, especially with a guaranteed paycheck coming.
Dustin Johnson (DK $11,400): Win – DNP – 5th – WD here the last four years, but we know DJ is a WGC beast, so I think I prefer him over anyone else at the top of the board regardless of how he played last week. There’s literally nothing I can say that hasn’t been said before about DJ, and even tough last week’s performance wasn’t great for him, that was last week and he’s likely to bounce back. Every week in PGA DFS is a new week, so don’t let last week influence your decisions.
Billy Horschel (DK $7,500)
· Course History: 51st– 4th– DNP – 8th
· Form: MC – DNP – DNP – 17th
· Stats: 114th– SG: OTT, 65th– SG: APP, 33rd– SG: P, 77th– SG: T2G
· Analysis: We’re back on bermuda greens and in the hot south, so naturally targeting Billy Ho is a good idea, especially on tight courses. He’s a good ball striker and a much better putter – especially on bermuda greens – and he’s been quite vocal about his affinity for playing courses like this. I expect him to play well this week.
Danny Willett (DK $7,600): Coming off a strong performance at The Open means he’ll more than likely carry more ownership than usual, but with the scoring conditions possibly being in his favor this week (not a score-fest) and being back on bermuda greens (his better of the two grass types) he should be a decent play. I like that he’s more of a boom-or-bust player who offers much more than some in his finishing place bonus, which he’s shown recently.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,400): Good course history (31st last year, 6th five years ago) means he’ll probably carry some ownership. Add in that this is a tight track that rewards ball striking and accuracy off the tee, and I’m sure that’ll add even more ownership to his name this week. Prior to missing last week’s cut, he had made his last two and finished 14th & 41st so I’ll take it as he wasn’t a good fit for Portrush.
Matthew Wolff (DK $7,500)
· Course History: None
· Form: DNP – 37th– Win – MC
· Stats: Hasn’t qualified for Tour stats yet
· Analysis: I thought he’d be priced much cheaper than he is, so maybe he becomes the low-owned guy to play in this price range. We know how solid he is from a tee-to-green perspective and he can rack up a ton of birdies when he’s given (or earned) four rounds of golf. I’d probably lean on him in GPPs and look elsewhere in cash this week.
CT Pan (DK $6,800): 18th here last year in his debut. He’s a solid scrub section play as he’s earned his way into this field via his OWGR ranking (he’s inside the Top 50!). He’s a great ball striker and an above average putter which makes getting him at low ownership and a cheap price in a no cut event should be a profitable move.
Keith Mitchell (DK $6,500): Bermuda greens means we’re back on Mitchell this week. 37th here last year in his debut as a rookie on tour is encouraging enough for me even after missing the cut last week in Ireland. He’s back on US soil and on a comfortable surface in the south, so he should be fine there, and he offers a ton of birdie making ability.
CONTRARIAN CORE (GPP PLAYS)
Jon Rahm (DK $10,400): Rahm is in top form and he’s been consistently great since missing back-to-back cuts (11th – Win – 2nd – 3rd). I expected a Top 5 last week and he almost came through for us. This week should be more of the same. His rookie year on Tour was his best in WGC events after starting the year T3 and 2nd, and we know he possesses a strong game, which includes making a ton of birdies.
Adam Scott (DK $8,700): I know what you’re thinking! How could I recommend him after last week’s chalk debacle? Well, golf is a fickle game and Scott is well aware of his putting woes so I’m sure he went home, relaxed for a bit and got back to work.. Outside of putting, the rest of his game is dialed in, and he doesn’t have to sweat missing the cut.
Rafa Cabrera Bello (DK $7,900): Last week was a typical Rafa letdown week. Comes in with great form and looks to be a solid play, but couldn’t make any birdies to keep him around for the weekend. Now we’re in a no cut event, on a course that requires distance and accuracy, and he’s a better putter on bermuda grass.
Kevin Kisner (DK $7,200): Bermuda greens on a tight course in a no-cut event = Kevin Kisner time. He started out hot on Thursday at The Open, fizzled a bit coming home and just kind of hung around all week. He was never in contention after Thursday, so I don’t think he’ll garner much interest this week and he checks all the boxes for course fit.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!
- Pari (@hitthehighdraw)