MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown and Predictions!!!
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT CARD
Michelle Waterson DK $8000 / FD $17 vs. Angela Hill DK $8200 / FD $20
Believe it or not, this fight was not supposed to be the main event and unlike The Smith and Rakic fight, they actually did move this to a 5 round fight. Hill and Waterson, for the most part, are always in 5 round shape when they go, and both tend to get a little better and grittier as the fight goes on, so this makes it much closer and much more intriguing. Angela Hill came under the UFC umbrella with expectations in mind. However, in her debut, she displayed that she was there for war. She would be greeted by Jessica Andrade and even tho she lost, she fought with a refusal to take a back step. The fight would go on to win Fight of the Night. Hill has been very active since then. Debuting in 2017, she has 11 fights since then. After such a tremendous debut showing, it was clear that it would be a hard act to follow, and that indeed it was. With a 6-6 record in the UFC, Hill really has had her ups and downs. However, it seems as if she is really starting to tie things together now. After a 3 fight winning streak, she lost her last fight against Claudia Gadelha by way of split decision, where many people thought the win went to the wrong person. A win there would have put Hill in a really good spot, but things happen for a reason and here she is headlining against a very tough mainstay in Michelle Waterson. Hill was never a finishing artist, but she brings a tireless striking pedigree that spits a lot of volume at you for the duration. With a record of 12-8, Hill is far better than her record indicates, but you can see with 5 by KO and 7 by decision, she relies on outworking you on the feet. In her 8 loses, she has never been finished at her own game but has been submitted 2 times. However, she is clearly getting stronger and looking for the finish more. She has 2 finishes in her last 3 wins. Hill without a doubt is either coming into her own or maturing but I do like the growth that I see.
Michelle Waterson is a black belt in karate, but many identify with her a little more by her extremely tricky and slippery ground game. With a record of 17-8, Waterson has 3 Kos and 9 submissions. In her 8 loses, she was KO’d 1 time and Submitted 3 times. One of my biggest knocks with her from a technical standpoint is her very high-risk moves that she will attempt during her fights. One example is her love for the head and arm throw. Great move if it works but if not executed perfectly, you can be the one ending up on the bottom and we have seen it plenty with her. It also doesn’t help that Waterson is a natural Atom Weight and I know people may not think that is a big deal, but it actually is. With that said, Waterson has something that many men and women don’t have. It can’t be taught, it can only be instilled in you. She never says die until she is dead. You need to literally finish her for her to quit. I have seen her beaten, battered and defeated, and she has gotten off her stool ready to fight more in the next round. Tie that into the talent that she has and you have a dangerous fighter on your hands. Waterson is a points-based fighter on the feet. Will not wow you with volume but she looks for holes to make things count. The real work starts for her when she hits the ground. The advantage on the ground for her is clear. However, even tho she is the better grappler, Hill is not one to sit in place. So Waterson will need to advance position quickly to keep her in place. Hill is going to want to fight long. Keep her hips in space, and if Waterson pins her against the cage, escape and clear the warning track right in the center of the cage again. Fight in space where you know you will be the longer striker. Waterson is easy to pin what her game plan is. She is going to stand with you and feel you out. Coupling leg kicks and strikes to soften up a hole to find your hips. Once she sees that there is an opportunity for entry, she may disguise it with a barrage of strikes, but that is her end game. However, I highly advise against the head and arm throw against someone as long and as wiry as Hill. I have a feeling we see it anyway. Whether she succeeds with it or not remains to be seen. Just one example that can lose her the fight or maybe the round it’s executed. I like Waterson a lot. Not because of her style, but because she is such a game fighter. She truly is a fighter. There is no quit in her and I respect that so much in people inside and outside the cage. Fighters are winners. It doesn’t have to be a fistfight. People who don’t give up and fight for what they want are winners eventually in the long run. I just don’t think she wins this fight on Saturday night. Hill has a lot of momentum right now despite her loss. She really feels in her heart she was taken by the judges and I think it set a fire under her to really get one back against a big name in a headlining spot. This can be a major step forward for both ladies here, but it can also be a step back if things don’t go as planned. Both ladies are in their mid 30’s and even tho that is fairly young, Fighting age is far different. I think this is going to be a very exciting and competitive fight, however as the clock starts to hit the witching hour, Hill is just going to start really laying a bead on Waterson, landing more volume most likely winning a tough fought decision. However, heaven help Hill if she can’t stop herself from hitting the ground.
The Pick: Hill
Khama Worthy DK $8500 / FD $15 vs. Ottman Azaitar DK $7700 / FD $17
Azaitar comes in with a 12-0 record and 9 of them by way of KO. However, even tho he has power in his hands, he has fought a very padded set of fighters. I will not take any stock in his UFC KO in his last fight. He needs to show me more and beating Worthy will be a decent measuring stick. There is nothing that Azaitar does that is different or new. He is what he is. He is going to move forward on you and really just try to lay some leather on you in the hopes he keeps the high ratio of KO’s flowing in his direction. The issue here is that he is finally fighting a worthy opponent. (See what I did there). Worthy comes in with a 16-6 record but has been on a tear for his last 7 fights in a row. Including 2 big wins against Smith and Pena in which he was slated to lose both. He has 9 wins by KO and 4 by way of submission. Worthy is going to extract whatever it is that Azaitar has to offer. A game of fire for fire if you will. I think Worthy is the one that will have the edge here with the lighter fluid in the tank to have more heat in the flame thrower.
The Pick: Worthy
Andrea Lee DK $8900 / FD $19 vs. Roxanne Modafferi DK $7300 / FD $9
Every time Modafferi fights, I tend to find areas and gaping holes where she is going to lose, but she has been proving the masses wrong with just sheer will. Let’s face it, and it’s not a knock on her, but she is not a very good fighter when it comes to technique and athletic ability standing. However, MMA is not only about standup. In MMA you need to embrace what you are good at and try and level up your weaknesses to nullify situations that you may be overmatched. Well, it’s fair to say that Modafferi, for the most part, is almost always outmatched on the feet, but when it goes to the ground, we are talking about an entirely different story. With a record of 24-17, I can honestly say that her record is a good indication of her. In her 24 wins she has 15 by way of decision, so what does that tell us? She is going to outwork you if you let her. Her determination, her grit and her obsession with never giving up on trying to go ground can and will break many girls in the division. Now, what happens if she fights another fighter that has that same dog mentality, better on the feet, athletic, and is not only good on the feet but very well equipped on the ground as well? I will tell you what happens. Roxanne loses. That’s what she is facing here. Lee is a very very talented fighter with a lot to give. Good striker with very underrated grappling, Lee is not just a pretty face like a PVZ. This girl comes to fight come hell or high water. Running through people in LFA, Invicta, and watching that success spill over into the UFC. Lee won her 1st 3 fights in the UFC by way of decision. In her last 2, she would drop 2 split decisions to Lauren Murphy and JoJo Calderwood. What do they have in common? Lauren and JoJo are both junkyard dogs in their own right. So, I am not saying Roxanne is out of this fight, because historically speaking Lee has problems with that awkward fighting style. However, Roxanne being 37 with the knee issues, the wars and the wear and tear is not going to get her faster and sharper from fight to fight. At this point in time, you start to train around your holes to make due and find new ways. Which is fine. It’s called evolution. However, Lee is 31 years old. Fresher, younger and sharper. I don’t see her beating Lee here. With that said, she has proved me wrong quite a few times in the past.
The Pick: Lee
Mike Rodriguez DK $8800 / FD $20 vs. Ed Herman DK $7400 / FD $12
Welcome back M-rod, who just fought a few short weeks ago. After needing a win in a dire way, Mike Rod literally put his opposition to sleep in round number 1, leaving no question that he is looking to turn the tables after his 1-3 start in the UFC. Eager to eve the score on his record from now 2-3 to 3-3, Rod steps in to fight savvy and gritty veteran in Herman. Herman and Arlovski are the only 2 fighters left that still want to really fight and truly love to fight. I can tell the way they win or lose. There is a certain passion involved on both ends for these gentlemen and that helps, but it will only take you so far in this game. Age waits for no one. Herman has been around for quite some time and although he never panned out to be a huge name in the sport, there is no doubt that he is a tough out for many and is very respected by his fellow fighters. The Black Belt in BJJ still believes he has it to make one more run, but Rod will have something to say about it while trying to stop Herman right in his tracks. After a 3 fight losing skid, Herman fired back with 2 nice wins and will look to make it 3 in a row. The 39-year-old would be wise to take notes on where and where not to take this fight. MIke Rod has not been uber impressive in his UFC stint but you can’t deny that he has a very effective striking pedigree once it really starts to let loose. With a 5-inch reach advantage on Herman, he is going to really need to stay long and watch his hips. With a 35 percent takedown defense and Herman securing 2 a fight on average, it would not bid well for him to tangle on the ground with Herman. I am concerned for Rod in this spot because Herman is a savvy vet and he does know where he needs to execute here. However, knowing where to execute is much different than actually executing it. Quick turn around for M-Rod here, but I think he gets it done.
The Pick: Rodriguez
Billy Quarantillo DK $9300 / FD $19 vs. Kyle Nelson DK $6900 / FD $13
Kyle Nelson is a few athletic strands away from being a solid fighter. Not that he is not now, but it just seems that he is missing a gear. He understands what needs to be done, but it really needs to be tapered down into his abilities athletically that may hurt him down the road. With a 13-6 record, he is 1-2 under the UFC umbrella. After dropping his first 2 fights, he came back and TKO’d Polo Reyes in his last outing. The issue here is, Polo Reyes is not a bragging point if you are able to KO him. He has one of the more suspect chins in MMA. Nelson will move forward and really rely on his power more than he will his footwork and creating angles to back you up. Plodding and straight forward with everything stemming from the centerline, Nelson is there if you want him. He takes on Quarentillo that just seems to be a little more well rounded everywhere and on top of it is the better athlete. Sharper, faster, good snap on his shots and a good grappling foundation. The issue I do have with BQ is that his conditioning can take a dip in spots and that will always be a concern for me. It will be very important for him to take a quick charging lead, in the beginning, to give him that security in case the conditioning starts to fail him. I am expecting it to fall off a ledge slightly but not enough to lose a decision or to get finished by Nelson. I see Nelson chasing a bit and getting sloppy and that is where Nelson will lose this fight.
The Pick: Quarantillo
Matt Schnell DK $8600 / FD $16 vs. Tyson Nam DK $7600 / FD $17 (CANCELED)
This fight is really tricky. It’s funny because there is only one real factor holding me back from picking Schnell here but it is a valid one. Let me lay the canvas out for you with an example. This will actually be the breakdown as well. Schnell has very good hand speed, good volume, applies just enough pressure, and has a very under spoken ground game. Moves well, utilizes his jab, ties everything together fairly well. He has had his ups and downs, but for the most part, Schnell is a solid fighter. With a 14-5 record, Schnell has 2 KOs and 8 Submissions. In his 5 losses, he has been KO’d 3 times. Well rounded and the ability to go anywhere, Schnell has one issue. He can be winning the fight from pillar to post and if you hit him in the right spot on the chin, you are taking a chance of him waking up 2 days later. He has a very very suspect chin. Tyson Nam doesn’t present as many offensive tools as Schnell does and from a talent and volume perspective, Schnell is in the bonus. However, what Nam has over Shnell is legit KO power. With a 19-11 record, Nam has 11 by way of KO. in his 11 losses, He has never been Subbed and he has been KO’d 3 times. I can see a situation where Schnell is taking it to him and then in the blink of an eye, Nam lands something big and puts him out. I can almost smell it happening. With that said, it’s really hard to pick Nam on just that alone. So very cautiously and with some stroke of fear, I am picking Schnell here to take a few shots from Nam, taste his power, and pivot to taking this to the ground where he will have a clear advantage, and even if he doesn’t submit him, He will be able to control and neutralize.
The Pick: Schnell
Julia Avila DK $9400 / FD $19 vs. Sijara Eubanks DK $6800 / FD $10
This makes zero sense to me. I get that Eubanks has been a disappointment. However, to be a disappointment, it means you didn’t reach the standard that you have the ability to reach. So it’s not like Eubanks doesn’t have the ability, it means she really just hasn’t lived up to her potential. Avila is a good fighter, but come on now! People are picking her like she is proven as a top 5 fighter in the division. She has plenty of holes in her game. The blessing and the curse of her game is the way she storms in on her opposition when she is ready to engage. Head up, on the center line and very exposed in spots. As of now, it has been a blessing to her because the level of competition she has been fighting will tend to shell up or meet fire with fire and Avila will usually win that war. With a piping right hand, Avila does know how and when to place it. From a straight skill set level, these women are not far apart. My issue with Eubanks is honestly her tenacity and her conditioning. The talent is there. The strength is there. The ability to fight on her feet and use her black belt in BJJ on the ground is there, but if your conditioning doesn’t hold up, you can’t implore any of it. Conditioning is not something that can’t be fixed. Sure, some fighters have better conditioning than others genetically, but you can stretch your conditioning to be better and serviceable unless there is an underlying medical condition that just won’t allow it. Eubanks comes from a good camp and has clear skills, but she just can’t seem to get everything to play in concert with each other where Avila has been able to make it work a little better. Avila is going to want to keep this in rage and make sure that she is the one stalking. If she is the stalker then she can pick and choose when she engages with her spurts of fury. Use the jab until the opening for the right-hand presents itself, then unload. Eubanks is going to really need to lean on her Black Belt in BJJ at some point in this fight and make Avila carry her weight and work. I really think Eubanks is going to have success early, but the conditioning is going to be the huge question mark. Not a comfortable feeling to know your fighter can gas at any time, but the talent is there and if she truly wants to evolve, then she will need to dial in on that. If she doesn’t here, then who knows if she ever will dial that in. This fight is going to be much closer than projected. Not afraid to shoot a shot here and give Eubanks the lean in possibly a split decision here.
The Pick: Eubanks
Roosevelt Roberts DK $8400 / FD $17 vs. Matt Frevola DK $7800 / FD NA (CANCELED)
You have two completely different fighters here and that really mixes a pretty good matchup here, but a matchup where they need to lobby and dominate the space they are looking for. Roberts is a long fighter with a good striking game and a very sneaky submission game. Roberts has no issue with searching for a neck or a limb standing or on the ground. He is always on the search for something exposed. With a 10-2 record, Roberts has 5 by way of submission and 2 by KO. In his 2 losses, he has only been finished 1 tie which was his last fight where he was submitted by Jim Miller. There is no shame getting submitted by Jim Miller. The Black Belt under Jaime Cruz is extremely High Pedigree and a legend of the sport. Roberts will have plenty of hunting opportunities against a guy who loves getting in on your hips in Matt Frevola. With an 8-1 record, Frevola was stopped dead in his tracks one time by Marco Polo Reyes and hasn’t made that same mistake twice. Much more of a grinder, Frevola will look to stand and trade until he finds the opportunity to level change on you. Averaging a little over 3 takedowns per affair, the Steamroller will look to do just that against the taller and longer Roberts. Roberts is averaging a little over 1 takedown per affair but I think it will be wise for him to take this to where he has some capitalistic physical advantages, which are on the feet using his long striking style in open space. Use his speed and his athletic ability to play a little game of Matador with Frevola and when Frevola takes a few sloppy shots late, search for that neck. However, he is also going to have to stay off his back because Frevola is the better chain wrestler and if he gets control on the ground, Roberts can have some issues. I think Frevola can put pressure on Roberts that will gain the advantage late forcing Roberts to need a finish which I don’t think he gets. I’ll take the dog here.
The Pick: Matt Frevola
Roberts DK $8400 / FD $17 vs. Kevin Croom DK $6700 / FD $16 (REPLACEMENT)
You want to talk about late replacement? Jesus. Croom came flying in like a thief in the night 48 hours before showtime. I covered everything that you can expect from Roberts in his fight but the table has now flipped. I went from him losing to winning in most likely a big way. Croom comes to us on a debuting situation with a record of 21-12. He calls himself the Hard-hitting Hillbilly but he has more submissions than he does KO’s with 10 Subs and 6 KOS. On film, he does do some nice things but he has really never fought anyone that would make you raise your eyebrow with interest. Roberts is by no means a killer, but he has been there and has all his preparations completed. He is fully ready to fight where a debuting fighter spot is hard enough, never mind debuting on 48 hours notice. All the power to the kid if he can pull it off, but picking him would be throwing a dart with a blindfold and I am not willing to do that.
The Pick: Roberts
Bobby Green DK $9100 / FD $18 vs. Alan Patrick DK $7100 / FD $14
Patrick is a fighter that will bring the action to you if you are not willing to do so first. Starting his career he skated to a 13-0 record utilizing a combination of the entire spectrum. After going 2-0 in the UFC he would then lose his first fight by way of TKO at the hands of Taisumov. After that, you always want to see how a fighter bounces back from their 1st loss. Well, he strung together 3 straight before dropping his last fight to Scott Holtzman. With a record of 15-2, despite his Black belt in BJJ, he has 4 KOS and only 2 subs, In his 2 losses, he has been KO’d 2 times. There is no doubt that Patrick is looking to grind this on the ground, but he will have to find his way in on the hips of Green which really hasn’t been that hard historically. However, Green has been fighting with much more purpose these days and has really looked pretty damn sharp. After dropping 2 straight, Green has bounced back nicely to even that score and win 2 straight. Patrick will own a 3-inch reach advantage but that is not going to give him the edge in striking here. He is not looking for that anyway. Green is going to really need to use his speed, footwork and kicking game to make up that 3 inches and keep this in a comfortable range and style set for himself. When the fight becomes a little more labored, Green needs to really start letting his hands go, making Patrick’s shots to visibly become a little more sloppy and easier to read. I think this will be a very high octane fight while both men lobby for position in getting what they want. I think they will both have their spots of success but I think green is riding with a different level of confidence right now and I think he can smell bigger things to come if he wins this fight.
The Pick: Green
Jalin Turner DK $9000 / FD $19 vs. Brok Weaver DK $7500 / FD $14
Turner is taking this fight on short notice against Brock Weaver. He has had a rotating door of wins and losses since his entrance under the umbrella. The pattern on him is that he beats who he is supposed to right now but when you step him up a bit, he seems to lose. Long, Rangy and establishes the jab early. At 6’3 he will have a 4-inch reach advantage and he is going to really need to establish respect right out of the gate. Weaver is going to bring that dirty pressure. He likes to get into close quarters and see if he can work his way into a potential slugfest with you on the inside. There is no doubt that Weaver is a tough kid with very good hands, but when Turner really isn’t going to have to worry about getting taken down, it will allow him to really open up in space where I think he will have the advantage. Weaver is going to find his way into his fight in spots but I think Turner is able to break away, reset and keep it moving off the jab. I am expecting Turner to be patient, fight long, and continuously set up his spots off his jab, making it extremely difficult for Weaver to gain chunks of ground.
The Pick: Turner
Alexandr Romanov DK $8700 / FD NA vs. Roque Martinez DK $7500 / FD NA
This was just added to the card. Why? I haven’t a clue but here it is….The Big Boys… This is low-level MMA and both men seem to not long for the UFC to be honest. With that said, watching both men here, you need to understand that anything can happen with the heavyweights. The cardio, the chin, the one-punch KO power that most heavyweights have, etc… Heavyweight fights tend to get sloppy and when it’s low level and they get sloppy, anything can happen. SO that is just food for thought. However, this fight for me boils down to Martinez just not having enough. When I mean enough, I mean in its entirety. He is just pulling short straws in every department. Lacks speed, power, technique, etc. He has some of it but not enough to beat Romanov from what I have seen. Romanov is only slightly better but not much. However, he is a little faster, sharper, better grappler, stronger, and also a tiny bit more athletic. I guess you can say out of two untrustworthy guys, I trust him a little more.
The Pick: Romanov
Bryan Barberena DK $9000 / FD $21 vs. Anthony Ivy DK $7200 / FD $11
It takes a certain breed to be able to categorize yourself in the same durability and toughness bracket as Bryan Barberena. This kid is a modern-day gladiator in its rawest form. There is nothing flashy about Bam Bam. He isn’t going to wow you with wacky transitions or highlight-reel finishes, but what he will do is be in your face for 15 straight minutes giving you hell while you throw everything but the kitchen sink at him. Hell, even if you throw the kitchen sink at him, Bam Bam is still moving forward. However, he is human and you can only take so many beating in the cage before your body starts telling you to fuck yourself. The once unbreakable has now been finished in his last 2 fights, marking those 2 fights the only two times he has been finished inside the horn outside a submission loss stemming back to 2010. Ivy is a long and rangy striker that is going to really keep this fight open and airy. He wants to keep this fight in space and does not want anything to do with getting into a phone booth with Bam Bam. Ivy was not impressive in his fight against Aguilara. He was shell shocked in the first round not even getting off double-digit strikes. He is going to look to really bounce back from this, but going against a guy that is going to drag you into a hell hole of war, it’s probably not the greatest matchup to build confidence in unless you have been there before and Ivy has not been in a storming war yet. He can absolutely catch Barberena and test his durability further, but if that chin does hold up, it’s going to be a long night for Ivy.
The Pick: Barberena
Sabina Mazo DK $9200 / FD $18 vs. Justine Kish DK $7000 / FD $12
This is a fight that is really won and lost on Mazo’s decision making and execution. Kish is a tough out for many fighters and being a tough out for Mazo won’t be any different. With that said Mazo has the tools to keep this flowing in her direction if she plays her cards properly. Kish is looking to grind, She is looking to take you into deep water to see how far you are willing to go. Many fighters that lack the athletic ability of some others will tend to lean on the “Toughness” edge, and that works plenty of times, but like everything else, there is an answer for that. Now you can’t just solve that answer, because you need the tools to do so. Mazo has those tools. She needs to fight long and use her jab at a continuous rate. Keep Kish honest while peppering her up. Mazo throws a very very heavy dose of volume but she needs to make them count. Throwing t throw is not a good idea against kish because she may find a seam and take it. Throw enough volume to keep her at bay and then take what Kish is giving you from there. I think Kish will be playing the catch-up game here making her desperate. This is where Mazo needs to stay composed and keep the fight moving. Make Kish chase you, stick move and keep that jab popping while keeping your hips in space. Good test for Mazo but one that she wins.
The Pick: Mazo
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS
Michelle Waterson – DK $8000 / FD $17
Angela Hill – DK $8200 / FD $20
I highly advise you play this fight on both sides. It’s that good of a matchup. Both of these ladies have the ability to win this fight and it can be a very high volume fight in all aspects of their styles mesh properly. I can tell you this. At their price, I will have decent exposure to this fight. I will have a heavier lean on HILL but I will not fade Waterson.
Khama Worthy – DK $8500 / FD $15
The finishing upside is there for Worthy whenever he fights. He is in a good spot with a guy that is going to give him plenty of opportunities.
Ottman Azaitar – DK $7700 / FD $17
He is 12-0 and does have finishing power but this is a tough spot here and I am not sure he wins this fight but stranger things have happened and he does have good hands. If he can catch Worthy’s chin on a shelf, he can cause waves. I won’t hate you if you do, but I just don’t see it.
Andrea Lee – DK $8900 / FD $19
I like her at this price and she may go a bit underlooked, to be honest with you. Modafferi is going to be there to get hit and if it goes to the ground she is going to be able to transition with Modafferi on the ground. This could really tally up some points for her. Sub 9k, I will have my dose of LEE.
Roxanne Modafferi – DK $7300 / FD $9
Eventually, this has to come to an end with Modafferi. She has been looking good and staying in fights, but eventually, someone is going to just run away with a fight against her. I think this could be the spot. Very light dose if you do.
Mike Rodriguez – DK $8800 / FD $20
Herman is very tough, but I think the knees and the strikes of Rod will be too much for Herman. I think he has the upside to finish and at sub 9k he is without a doubt in play.
Ed Herman – DK $7400 / FD $12
Not a huge fan here of Herman, and I think there is better value elsewhere.
Billy Quarantillo – DK $9300 / FD $19
He’s better everywhere in my opinion. He will need to avoid the power kill shots of Nelson but if he does and his gas tank holds up, he should coast to a win here.
Kyle Nelson – DK $6900 / FD $13
I think he loses but I may sprinkle him in a few light lineups. The power is there if he can find his mark, and because of that, he is worth a look.
Julia Avila – DK $9400 / FD $19
Too expensive for me here. I actually am fading her here.
Sijara Eubanks – DK $6800 / FD $10
I can’t understand this price. What has Avila really proved? If Eubanks can get her cardio in check, she has a chance to win this fight. Get a few bullets here.
Roosevelt Roberts – DK $8400 / FD $17
I started with Roberts losing, and now after a 48-hour switch, he is now my pick to win. He can’t get cocky and I am sure he will be highly owned now, but this is really his fight to win or lose and that price is tasty.
Kevin Croom – DK $6700 / FD $16
Bobby Green – DK $9100 / FD $18
Torn on this price but Green is on a high right now and is fighting quite well. I just really don’t like his price here against a dangerous opponent in Patrick. Be careful here and proceed with caution.
Alan Patrick – DK $7100 / FD $14
He is a live dog and I will treat him as such even tho I picked against him. There are paths here.
Jalin Turner – DK $9000 / FD $19
Turner is going to really have to use his range and length to win this fight. I think he is cautious against weaver to start but as he starts finding his mark, he starts to accumulate punishment against weaver where he flirts with a finish or a lopsided decision if he plays his cards right in this spot. I don’t mind him here.
Brok Weaver – DK $7500 / FD $14
Anyone who is going to really fight for you, I am interested in them. Weaver is another one of those guys that will really take it to the limits in anyone that he fights. The pride and the honor he brings into the cage gives him that edge. I am picking him to lose this fight but I will not be shocked at all if he wins. He is a dog and if you aren’t willing to get dirty with him, he may just pull away with some fights that he shouldn’t win.
Alexandr Romanov – DK $8700 / FD NA
It’s a heavyweight fight that automatically gives it the upside for the finish. At sub 9k, Romanov is going to need to get serious early. I think he is better everywhere slightly and that can give him the edge to find the opening for a finish. I’ll have some.
Roque Martinez – DK $7500 / FD NA
I’m probably going to fade him here, and I probably shouldn’t. Heavyweights can be so unpredictable. But I am picking one side on this and sticking to it. I’ll take my chances and fade here.
Bryan Barberena – DK $9000 / FD $21
Talk about a fighter that will fight for you. Bam Bam will do just that. The kid is such a dog. I am not happy about this price but he is going to go for it and because of that the upside is there. I will have some of him for sure.
Anthony Ivy – DK $7200 / FD $11
Kid’s not bad, but he is facing Bam Bam. Good luck getting him out of your face…. Fade…
Sabina Mazo – DK $9200 / FD $18
I am picking her to win here but that price is a little blown out of proportion. Mazo throws a lot of volume and can really rack up the points, but Kish liking to fight in the phone booth does scare me with halting the numbers. Not a must-play but I will have some very light exposure. I am not high on this price.
Justine Kish – DK $7000 / FD $12
I am not picking her here but I think she may be worth a few plays in certain spots depending on how many lineups you are running. She will fight for you even tho I am picking her to lose. Mazo is going to really need to show up.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT VEGAS
1.15 to win 1
1.25 to win 1
Mike Rodriguez -235
2.35 to win 1
.5 to win 1.22
Mike Rod -235
1 to win 1.49
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