MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown and Predictions!!!
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT CARD
Anthony Smith DK $7500 / FD $18 vs. Aleksandar Rakić DK $8700 / FD $23
This is a very good matchup and one that really will make you dive deep looking for an edge on either one of these fighters. They both have their strong paths, but they are so different, that finding the edge in one of their paths is quite difficult. When you look at Rakic, we know what he likes if he had things flowing in his direction. He wants a fight at range where he can use his well rounded striking to keep you honest while finding his mark at will. He is not much of a grappler, but Rakic can hold his own when it comes to getting out of some bad spots. He also does a very good job in top position with his ground and pound. He knows how to keep your hips heavy and secure a decent top position. Smith is quite different in his approach. His style calls for him to take damage as well as delivering it. He needs to work off his jab and as the fight starts to thicken, he likes to move into close quarters where he can start chipping away with elbows, knees and strikes. Smith is also very well versed in the grappling game and will have a good path for himself in that department if he can get this one down to the mat or if he even wants to.
Rakic made quite the tidal wave entering the UFC with a 4 fight win streak and 2 by way of KO. With a record of 12-2, Rakic has 9 KOs and 1 Submission. In his 2 losses, he lost his very 1st fight by Sub and his very last flight to Volkan by split decision. Rakic is a big Light Heavy with a ton of pop in his hands. He sits on the outside and will prod away at you until he sees an opening to try to explode forward, unload and then reset. He works very well on the fly and he can be creative in his approach if he is forced to flip a defense into a quick spurt of offense to halt the pursuit.
Smith is one of those fighters that has been around for quite some time. There are fighters out there and people in general that bloom later in life and later in their careers. Smith has always been on the scene despite what his numerical age is. With a record of 33-15 at the age of 32, that is a statement right there. Smith’s first fight stems all the way back to 2008. In his 33 wins, he has 18 by KO and 12 by submission. In his 15 losses, he has been finished 9 times by KO and 5 by way of submission. Smith’s career has been very up and down for a long time. He would tie some nice wins together and then when his moment would come close, it would derail him from that path. However, Anthony Smith found a window to jump through and his rise in a very tough division finally kept it on the upswing all the way to a title shot against John Jones. He would falter like most men have against Mr. Jones, but it wouldn’t all end in vain for him. He now gets the fights he has longed for and now here he is main eventing another card. However, it seems since his loss to Jones, He is teetering that fine line again. Loss to Jones, win against Gus and was absolutely destroyed by Glover. Here he is on what some would call a quick turn around after a brutal assault in his last fight. He wasn’t knocked out or knocked out cold. Beaten and battered? Yes. But that is far different than getting completely shut down. When you are shut down, that means something happens within the body to turn you off for a reason. Axonal shearing and other scientific reasons why the body will turn off. That takes some recovery time for sure. I think he is ok to fight and ready for this one. I think he understands that his window is also starting to close a bit despite his age. He has been in wars and it doesn’t matter how old you are. Fighting years and numerical years are two totally different balls of wax.
Rakic is going to bring a very crisp, fast and sharp striking style. Keep a close eye on him keeping this at range with a combo of strikes that will ultimately try to keep smith honest. He will need to send a few warning shots down the centerline the second Smith decides to creep or crash the pocket. Smith, a very capable striker will want to flip the script a little here and maybe go to an area first that he usually taps into 2nd. His grappling. Smith is a very underrated grappler and I think he will be best served if he gets this to the ground and starts to work his ground game on Rakic. Rakic will most likely be prepared for it in the early going but it will be Down the stretch where Smith has all the experience and can bring Rakic into unchartered territories. Rakic has only been to the 3rd 4 times. Smith has been into the 3rd and beyond 12 times. Now keep in mind this is a 3 round fight and not a 5 round fight. If this was 5 rounds I would be more tempted to pick Smith here. However, it’s not. I have to Rakic to get in front early and even if Smith starts to storm back, he may need a finish.
The Pick: Rakić
Neil Magny DK $8600 / FD $18 vs. Robbie Lawler DK $7600 / FD $14
What can you say about Ruthless Robbie Lawler… The guy has lived up to his name in ten folds. The wars he has been in, the wars he survived, the wars he’s won and the overall resume he has built for himself was literally built on Murder’s Row Blvd. With a record of 28-13, Lawler far exceeds what his resume shows. With 20 of his 28 wins by KO, there is a clear translation there where he likes to take things. The guy literally fought everyone that there was to fight at the time during his career which started in 2001. He has been doing this thing for a while and here he is again looking to extend his career a little longer. With a short notice call, Robbie will never say no unless he has decided to hang them up. Robbie has had a tough go in his last 3 fights losing all of them. He was outworked by Colby, He was controversially submitted by Askren and he lost a decision to RDA. Not one of those fighters is something to hang your head down about. With that said, you can see the decline creeping in with Lawler a bit. One thing that made Robbie, Robbie was his ability to tune everything out and literally change who he was in the cage. He tossed all caution to the wind and dragged you into a firefight that was quick and violent. There was no off switch with Robbie and he didn’t really think about consequences back then. Now he is a bit more reserved in his approach, his interviews and his fighting. He has matured as a person and a fighter and now having a family I think he realizes that those wars can and will affect him one day. He appears to be trying to fight smarter instead of harder but for his style, that really may not be the best way. Now with his back against a wall in a sense, you wonder if he goes back to vintage Lawler like he was against Rory, and is it even in there anymore? What Robbie has in his favor here is he is facing Neil Magny and I don’t mean that as a stab towards Magny. Because Magny is the favorite for a reason. However, if there is a high profile fighter to open up on, He’s not the worst pick of the batch. He is a volume guy and uses good and hard pressure to capitalize on his opposition. With 23 wins, 13 have been by way of Decision. Magny is all about pace and to his credit there are not many people that can hang with him with pace. He is very long and rangy and that is where I see Robbie having his issues here. Closing space. In his 14 decisions, he only lost 1, so you can see that pace and pressure is gold to him. With that said he does not carry a ton of pop in his hands and if you want to beat Robbie or keep him at bay, you need to sting him and send a message. If Magny wins it will be on 3 rounds of outpacing him which is very possible but Magny has finished 6 ties out of 7 losses, so the path is there for Lawler. He just needs to bring back Ruthless for this one. I think he just may do that.
The Pick: Lawler
Alexa Grasso DK $9100 / FD $18 vs. Ji Yeon Kim DK $7100 / FD $11
Grasso was slated to be a very big prospect and she had her ups and downs in the UFC. After being undefeated before the UFC Grasso showed that maybe she wasn’t fully ready to take the plunge. The youngster has had a rotating door of wins and losses throughout her stay here. However, her improvements are clear that she is in fact growing into her style. With an 11-3 record, the slick striker has 4 by KO and 7 by way of decision. In her 3 losses, she has been submitted only 1 time. The thing that makes her dangerous is not her power but the cardio and volume that she brings. She’s very high octane and throws her punches so crisp. The one fall from grace with her is her grappling. If you can contain her on the ground, obviously her striking acumen is out the window at that point. She takes on Kim who has a very well decorated martial arts background with a 3rd degree black belt in Hapkido, a black belt in Wushu and a purple belt in BJJ. With a record of 9-2, she has 2KOs and 3 Submissions. She has a well-rounded pedigree but her issue is her speed and ability to keep up with Grasso in the pocket. I find it hard to believe that she is going to lead the exchanges. If she can get this to the Mat by using her awkward striking ability to find a gap to shoot on, then things can be dangerous for Grasso. Also, Grasso bumping up a weight class is yet to be determined as a good thing or bad. Her speed and volume will def carry over but will the ability to fight fighters that may hold candles in other departments. I think her speed and striking keeps her in this one to pull off the win landing the more significant strikes in their exchanges.
The Pick: Grasso
Ricardo Lamas DK $9200 / FD NA vs. Bill Algeo DK $7000 / FD NA
I had the opportunity to call Algeo’s fight in ROC. I was very impressed with him. Smooth on the feet, good grappling and a swag about him that fits the UFC model. With a record of 13-4, Algeo has 6 wins by Sub and 3 By KO. In his 4 losses, he was submitted 2 times and never finished by strikes. At 31 Algeo is not a spring chicken coming under the umbrella but he is in a perfect sport to have a wide enough window to make some waves and have a good career if he translates. With that said, this is a super tough ask for Algeo to come in on short notice against a very tough and proven Ricardo Lamas. Not only is he proven but Lamas really has his back against the wall. Lamas dropped 3 of his last 4 fights with 2 of them ending in violent KO. Usually, in a situation like Lamas where he is taking a clear dip in performance, you start to question the chin a bit now. With an overall record of 19-8 Lamas will always be a little better than an average guy on the roster who is always dangerous. With an equal balance of 6 KOs and 5 Subs, Lamas has also been KO’d 5 times which obviously is always a concern if he abandons what he is truly good at. A solid wrestling pedigree and a Black Belt in BJJ under Daniel Valverde. Lamas can tend to be one of those guys that you can bait into a firefight but the last two guys that KO’d him hit like trucks for the division in Kattar and Emmett. I am not sure Algeo has that power to really back him up like that. So if he can’t back the 38-year-old up then does he resort to grappling? Well he can, but not recommended against someone like Lamas that to me, is better on the ground then he is on the feet, and not only that, He will be keeping his chin much safer in Close quarters. So if you look at the paths here, Algeo really needs to keep this standing and in range just enough so Lamas can’t manage this fight to the ground. I think it’s going to be a tough ask to be honest and I have to side with Lamas here.
The Pick: Lamas
Magomed Ankalaev DK $9000 / FD $19 vs. Ion Cutelaba DK $7200 / FD $12
I am reallllllly looking forward to this one. Let me give you a little backstory if I may. This is a rematch from one of the most controversial stoppages that I have seen in quite some time. Ankalaev was landing strikes at a rapid and hard pressured pace during an exchange and Ion seemed to be rocked. Wobbling on his back steps and really looking like that he was borderline getting ready to be put out on his feet. Just when you thought that he was getting ready to go, He would bite down and start throwing heat like nothing was wrong. It was clear to me then that Ion was playing Possum. He was playing the cat and mouse game to try and get Ankalaev to commit false pretenses inside the pocket. However, the ref didn’t see it that way and stopped the fight just as Ion threw a wild overhand right. The odd thing about the stoppage is usually a ref will pull the engaging fighter away from the one getting beaten down, but he stopped it the opposite way. He jumped in the middle of Ion when he was the one that was supposed to be on queer street. So that to me was a bit odd. Bad stoppage? Absolutely. Whose fault is it? Well, the refs’ fault for sure considering he is the one that stopped it, but it’s also Ions fault. You are not Ali. You aren’t skilled enough to walk that fine line yet trying to pull off the rope-a-dope. The reason why he was doing that is that he knew that was his only chance. Ankalaev is too polished and well rounded and I think Ion knew that his only saving grace was to really bait him into a vicious exchange where Ankalaev could possibly get clipped. If you get clipped by Ion, you are more than likely not going to be able to be awake to tell the tale. With a record of 15-5, The 26-year-old has 12 by way of KO. In his 5 losses, He was submitted 2 times and KO’d 1. However, I am not putting too much stock into that KO loss. What I will put some stock into is his cardio and his nonability to really show nothing more than devastating striking. That can be an issue here for him. He fights emotionally and he is going to come in emotional because of the back story. He is going to want to right the ship here and finish this in spectacular fashion. I can just tell the way his persona is. That is not going to benefit his cardio, In fact, if he comes out like a bat out of hell and misses the mark or doesn’t finish Ankalaev then it may cause an adrenaline dump in the process. So keeping an eye on the way he approaches this fight in the 1st minute will be a telltale sign about how this fight could end. Ankalaev did a very good job in the 1st fight being patient and not biting on Ion’s approach. However, That tells us something about ION. He felt like he needed to do that to gain ground. Sounds brilliant to some, but to me, that shows a level of uncertainty in your actual skill set way too early in a fight. If you want to throw tat in for a second or two later in the fight that’s fine, but to throw it in on that level so early on shows me that he didn’t have a plan B and he sold himself out now for this fight, because Ankalaev will now look for it and maybe not go in for the kill as easily now knowing that there is a chance he can be getting baited. I think Ankalaev stays disciplined and plays matador until he is certain that his attacks are at the right time for the right reasons while Ion will be fighting in desperation mode as the witching hour approaches if it even goes that far. Ion will always have a puncher’s chance against everyone but Ankalaev has felt the cage with him already and I am sure he will make the minor adjustments to make sure he is fighting at safe range in this one.
The Pick: Ankalaev
Impa Kasanganay DK $8500 / FD $17 vs. Maki Pitolo DK $7700 / FD $16
Who’s ready for Coconut Bombs? Pitolo is a very one-dimensional fighter and we know that. However, The kid throws with heat in every punch so fighters are more inclined to fight a little safer. He obviously matches up very well with a fellow striker, but if you put him into a spot where he is fighting a wrestler or a BJJ player then he can really be on the shit end of the stick. Faith in his power? Yes! Faith in his standup? Yes! Faith in his grappling? No, not at all. I would call it serviceable but that’s where it ends. Kasanganay is a better athlete and he is kind of balanced everywhere. He does have the ability to get this to the ground but he is very very raw and can be bound to make mistakes or sloppy entries. If his shots aren’t set up then he can get clipped coming in and if he gets hit coming in, they don’t call Pitolo coconut bombs for nothing. I think this is going to be a close fight, to be honest. I think the athletic ability and speed will keep Kasanganay in this fight, but at the end of the day, it will be Pitolo that will land the harder strikes and more effective ones in the eyes of the judges if it goes that far. Give me the dog.
The Pick: Pitolo
Mallory Martin DK $8900 / FD $18 vs. Hannah Cifers DK $7300 / FD $12
Hannah Cifers is on a 3 fight skid but she has fought 3 tough girls in those 3 fights. Agapova, Hill and Dern. She was finished in all 3 of those fights but it doesn’t mean that she isn’t tough and I can also argue that she walked herself into some of those losses. For example, she was doing very well against Dern until she thought it would be a good idea to tangle with a world champion BJJ player. The toughness is there for cifers but her decision making sometimes is just not in her best interest. Cifers has shown the ability to win fights against cusping fighters but when it’s time to step up a notch she tends to fall short. A good stand up due to her overall toughness and willingness to go into the pocket and trade, cifers don’t have much of a ground game. It’s said she is a brown belt in BJJ but I have not seen the accolades of that belt on the ground considering in 10 wins she has 5 by KO and none by sub. And in her losses, she has been subbed 3 times and KOd 2 times. So the BJJ brown belt thing? Meh. However, Malory Martin isn’t a huge finisher coming into this fight. With a 6-3 record, she has 3 wins before the horn and in her 3 losses, she was submitted 1 time. She’s young, she’s raw but she does have some Moxy in her ability to pursue the opposition and try to make things happen. She looks to get into the clinch and also has a pretty heavy ground and pound once she secures position. However, that line is very very odd to me. There is Noway that she should be sitting as a -345 favorite. I’m sorry that is blasphemy. I’m picking her here but by no means is this going to be a steamroller affair like Vegas thinks.
The Pick: Martin
Zak Cummings DK $8400 / FD $15 vs. Alessio Di Chirico DK $7800 / FD $17
Fight is def intriguing to me for a few reasons. I think we are going to see one of 2 things here. Who Chirico really is and if Zakk Cummings still has it at 36 years of age. Di Chirico coming in with a record of 12-4 has 5 wins by KO and 4 by way of submission. In his 4 losses, he has been submitted one time. The 30-year-old Italian Product is tough and he is pretty well rounded, but the issue I do have with him is that there is really nothing about his style that isn’t readable and it is very cookie cutter to a point. Guys like Zak Cummings that have been in the game for quite some time have seen many looks. I find it hard to believe that Di Chirico is going to show him a look that he hasn’t seen. However, seeing it and stopping it are 2 different animals. Di Chirico is in a tough spot here losing 2 fights in a row. A third would not be a good spot to be in and it doesn’t get much easier against a guy like Cummings who has a high-level Black Belt in BJJ under Leo Pachana. Cummings comes into the cage with a 23-7 record. He has finished 12 by way of submission and 5 by way of KO. Cummings is coming off a loss to Omari Akhmedov following 2 straight wins before that. He is not in jeopardy here but with a small window at his age in a rising division, he really can’t afford a loss here. I see the youth of Di Chirico being a problem. His frame, his toughness, the much fresher fighter and a possible career trajectory fight for him. With that said, in Cummings 7 losses he has been submitted 2 times and lost on the card 5 times. Knocking him out isn’t going to be an easy task and I think Cummings holds a clear grappling advantage if he can manage this to the ground or bait DC to take him there. The issue is that Cummings has not secured a takedown since 2016 against Santiago Ponz in a fight he would lose. However, the 6 fights after that, 3 of them were by way of submission without a takedown of his own. So, it is clear that he is very comfortable off his back but that is not a comfortable situation against a kid Like Di Chirico who will hunt for takedowns on his own. I like Cummings here for the mere fact that I think the fight is going to hit the ground at some point and Cummings has shown the ability to grapple his way into positive situations and out of negative ones. Close fight but I will lean with the vet here.
The Pick: Cummings
Austin Springer DK $7200 / FD NA vs. Alex Caceres DK $7400 / FD $13
You are going to want to have some of this fight because they are both grossly underpriced here. Caceres fight with Chikadze was scratched and very late replacement Springer steps in to make things interesting and keep things afloat. Springer is an interesting fighter in this spot because his success will really be predicated on if he can get underneath the range and footwork of Caceres. If he can then historically, Caceras has very big issues with defending the takedown. With that said he does fight very flat-footed and he doesn’t have a ton of movement. Caceres never really panned out the way people thought but the kid is still dynamic on the feet and should be able to outpoint Springer and keep him on the outside of his kicks and punches. Tough ask for Springer but not an impossible one. However, I have to go with Caceres here.
The Pick: Alex Caceres
Emily Whitmire DK $8200 / FD $16 vs. Polyana Viana DK $8000 / FD $15
Whitmire comes into this fight with a 4-3 record, and the last thing she wants to do is to hit the 500 mark on back-to-back losses. Not a good look in any facet. In her defense, her last loss was by the hand of Amanda Ribas who looks like a sure-fire contender at the moment. Before that, she was on a 2 fight winning streak and looked quite impressive in both fights. SO here she is trying to get back to her winning ways and inch away from that 500 mark. Much more of a points fighter, Whitmire only has 1 finish by submission in her wins, and in her 3 losses, she has been submitted 3 times. So as you can see there is a clear path to beat her if you can get her into a spot to make a mistake or open a window to grab a neck or a limb. Viana comes into the cage riding a 3 fight losing streak against Macedo, Cifers and Aldrich. With a 10-4 record, when she does win, she handles it all before the horn. With 4 wins by KO and 6 by way of submission, Viana is going to go for it whenever she steps foot into the cage. She also holds a KO win over Amanda Ribas on the regional circuit which could align a rematch in the short future if she gets by Whitmire here. However, the thing that really stands out to me about this fight is people may be swayed by the finishing ability of Viana by what’s on paper, but you need to really look at the level of competition, and that all came to a halt in her last three fights. So is Whitmire going to be another person that is just good enough to beat her or is she going to be able to take Whitmire and make an example of her? I am going to say that Whitmire is a little better here. She does have some decent wrestling and she will have the ability to make this a dirty fight to the point she can grind her and take her down with the ability to stay heavy enough to keep Viana in check. Viana is going to really hunt in this fight and it will be up to Whitmire to really stay cool and composed here, wait for her opportunity, and then pick her spots from that point forward. If she gets into wild exchanges or heavy scrambles on the ground then you are just playing with fire against someone that has been proven to finish in both areas if given the opportunity to do so. Whitmire needs to stay sharp and tight not allowing any room for mistakes and she should be able to walk out of the cage with a win Saturday night.
The Pick: Whitmire
Sean Brady DK $9300 / FD $20 vs. Christian Aguilera DK $6900 / FD $10
Brady has been thrown to the dogs since his stay here and has passed with flying colors. He showed me a lot against Court Mcgee. Court will bring you into a place where he makes you dig and if you don’t dig, you lose. He dug deep and pulled off the win. Then in his second fight where he was a pretty sizable dog, he showed that he is really here to make some noise. Keeps a good pace, aggressive, and will look to take it to the ground the minute he feels there is an opening to do so. However, at 12-0, you know that loss is coming soon. But when? Not in this fight. Aguilera had a very good debut but I do see holes in his game that are exploitable. He comes out hot and his strike count will most likely be higher early. However, his takedown defense isn’t what I would call to be at a model status and if Brady can get it there, I have seen Aguilera controlled on the ground. The biggest thing with fighting someone like Aguilera is that you can’t let him get what he wants. If you do then the volume will start rolling. You need to get on him early and trap him into a situation where he becomes desperate. Aguilera’s window to win this fight is early because as the fight winds down, it will be Brady that will start to dictate the fight minute by minute. Give me Brady here to keep the undefeated streak alive.
The Pick: Sean Brady
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS
Aleksandar Rakić – DK $8700 / FD $23
This guy has shown a few different fighters but when he’s on, this kid is on. Big for the division, extremely powerful and well-versed striker and fights very good in range. He has all the tools to sting and finish Smith. However, Smith has been there, done that and there is no situation he hasn’t seen. 8700 is a lot of money here. Rakic does have a chance to finish this one fantastically but I’m not going heavy against a guy like Smith. I will have some but I won’t be investing as heavy as most. I’ll be underweight.
Anthony Smith – DK $7500 / FD $18
If this was a 5 round fight the dynamics of this pick would be totally different. Smith wants that 4-5 round to drag Rakic into that murky water and he isn’t going to get that opportunity. In a 3 round fight, I think Rakic is going to do enough to win some early rounds making Smith desperate to win and ultimately coming up short. I will have some of Smith but not too many here considering it’s not a 5 round fight.
Neil Magny – DK $8600 / FD $18
$8600 is expensive for Magny against someone like Lawler. If you are looking for a finish from him, you’re probably not going to get it. What you will get is Volume. However, He may be a little tempered here due to the power of Lawler. Magny can cover his price but he without a doubt has a ceiling. So be mindful of that.
Robbie Lawler – DK $7600 / FD $14
I mean, You want to talk about disrespect? How in God’s name is Lawler this much of a dog against anyone? Vegas and DK really have no faith in Lawler anymore and that is unreal to me. However, I can see why they are picking Magny here, but I can’t pass on some shares of Lawler at this price. You know he is going to come to fight and a fighting Robbie Lawler is always a dangerous one.
Alexa Grasso – DK $9100 / FD $18
This price is a little expensive for me because there are some unknowns here for me. We still don’t know exactly what Grasso is. With that said, this is her fight to win or lose here. I am expecting her to win but I am not sure she covers that price tag. Tread carefully.
Ji Yeon Kim – DK $7100 / FD $11
I think she can slow the fight down but I just don’t see her being one of the better dogs here.
Ricardo Lamas – DK $9200 / FD NA
I can see people avoiding him because he is 38 and seems a bit dusted. I get it, I understand it, but it doesn’t mean he isn’t capable. I think he is a fine cash play and a GPP as well.
Bill Algeo – DK $7000 / FD NA
I commented on the fight in ROC and the kid has a lot of potential. But he is fighting a rough junkyard dog for his debut. Algeo is a good striker with a black belt in BJJ but the only edge I really see him holding here is him being the fresher fighter. Maybe 1 or 2 bullets but I am not feeling good about his chances here.
Magomed Ankalaev – DK $9000 / FD $19
In the rematch, I am expecting the fight elements to change a bit but the outcome to ultimately the same. I will have some Ankalaev while I can see a lot of people jumping on Cutelaba here.
Ion Cutelaba – DK $7200 / FD $12
People are looking way past something in the last fight. Ion literally pulled out the rope-a-dope 30 seconds into the fight. Why? Could it be because he realized that his skills weren’t enough to beat Ankalaev for 15 minutes so he needed to try baiting him? Interesting thought. His path here is simple. He needs to land a big shot. I am not banking on it. The few that I throw on him it will be just in case he does land that hail mary shot. But I am not counting on it.
Impa Kasanganay – DK $8500 / FD $17
I can’t see spending $8500 on him. I feel like He is too raw to trust. Show me…
Maki Pitolo – DK $7700 / FD $16
Quick turnaround here but Pitolo really does have some cork in his pop. He is not going to hold the athletic edge or the speed, but Kasanganay isn’t someone that Pitolo has to worry about power-wise. I think Pitolo can walk him down without the fear of getting caught with a bomb. I don’t think Kasanganay carries that sort of power. I think Pitolo is a live dog here.
Mallory Martin – DK $8900 / FD $18
I get her being a SLIGHT favorite but come on. These lines are just crazy to me this week. Martin comes with a good base and solid wrestling, but I can’t get behind this price at 8900. It’s not deserved or warranted here. Not yet, off.
Hannah Cifers – DK $7300 / FD $12
On a card that you really have a starvation of dogs. I don’t think it’s a horrible swing. She fought all well-respected fighters. Martin is not one of those names. I’ll give her a few looks, but I won’t be on this fight too much, as it is.
Zak Cummings – DK $8400 / FD $15
I think Cummings is just a little more well versed everywhere here. The issue here is his age and you wonder how much he has left. With that said, I am willing to take my chances with him but I would highly suggest hedging here. But have a heavier lean with Cummings. However, I will admit that this fight should be $8200-8000 or $8100-8100.
Alessio Di Chirico – DK $7800 / FD $17
He’s the fresher fighter and he can take advantage of the aging legs of Cummings. However, I still think the edge goes to Cummings in a super close fight. I wouldn’t avoid him here because we could be looking at a split decision.
Emily Whitmire – DK $8200 / FD $16
Polyana Viana – DK $8000 / FD $15
You should be able to swap in and out here, but I will be Heavier on Whitmire here. She is going to bring an element of wrestling to this fight that should be able to control Viana on the ground. With that said, if Whitmire lets Viana loosen her hips up and get her submission game going then things can get ugly. So Vianna has a submission path here but I think the Play here is to be heavier on Whitmire and the control.
Austin Springer – DK $7200 / FD NA
He does have an inline chance and a path to win here but you need to pick and choose spots so I may have a touch but not much.
Alex Caceres – DK $7400 / FD $13
Caceres should be the favorite here, and due to the late swap, they left him in dog money territory. He will probably be highly owned because of that but I will have some of Caceres as well. There is some good value there if he wins.
Sean Brady – DK $9300 / FD $20
I like Brady here but once again that price tag is a tough one. However, I think this is a fight that is a step down for him since his last 2. I think Brady will have success with his takedown attempts against Aguilera and that is where he will need to look to gain some ground in points here. I will have some Brady here.
Christian Aguilera – DK $6900 / FD $10
His chance really is to land something big early. As the fight goes on, Brady should start running away with it. I’m off.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT VEGAS
1.28 Units to win 1
Lawler by TKO/KO +420
.25 Units to win 1.05
Grasso by Decision -140
1.4 to win 1
Caceras -190 (BetOnline)
1.9 to win 1
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