MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown and Predictions!!!
Here is what Twitter is saying.
This card went through a complete overhaul. There are a lot of variables that are involved here and such an unstable card you can’t sit there and say you have a really good grasp on it. You are under the knife in times like this and you need to narrow down the film time and shoot from the hip in some spots and shooting from the hip isn’t worth a big bankroll. So, like I always say when there is uncertainty lurking around a card. Have fun, play responsibly, and don’t invest heavy on this card. I would honestly take some large GPP swings here. This card could be all over the place and if you are on the right side of some wacky situations, you may just strike a big one with minimal investment. I usually don’t promote large field plays, but this could be anyone’s play on this one. Have fun!
UFC FIGHT NIGHT CARD
Pedro Munhoz DK $9000 / FD $21 vs. Frankie Edgar DK $7200 / FD $18
New Jersey’s toughest son is back in the octagon representing us the way we should be represented. A tough gritty state that has a never say attitude instilled within us. No matter where you live now, the New Jersey Born tend to be the tougher skinned people around for numerous reasons. Frankie is a clear symbol of that. The Toms River Native came to the UFC with a Division 1 wrestling pedigree in which he qualified for Nationals 4 years in a row. Storming onto the scene in 2006 with a 6-0 record before entering the UFC, he made his mark quickly winning his first 3 straight under the big show’s umbrella before suffering his 1st loss to Gray Maynard, which would later turn into a historic trilogy. Edgar would then get his crack at UFC lightweight gold against the Prodigy BJ PENN in which he was sitting in the dog position. Frankie would pull off the upset and capture the title in which he defended 3 times successfully until losing it to Benson Henderson. After losing the strap, he had his rematch, lost again to Henderson in a split decision, and then would drop his next one to the great Jose Aldo. Edgar would have a few more opportunities to gain the Lightweight and featherweight strap but would ultimately come up short in those matchups. With a record of 23-8, Edgar’s record isn’t really the telltale sign of how good this guy was in his prime. Now at the age of 38 years old, Edgar is looking to make another run to see if he can eventually go out in the blaze of glory. The Black Belt in BJJ under the great Almeida has dropped his last 2 straight and needs this win in order to avoid the lonely 3 fight skid. With 7 wins by KO and 4 by submission, Edgar is much more of a drag you into the deep with his wrestling kind of a fighter. With his first 2 KO losses coming in his last 4 fights, Edgar is starting to show the wear from the wars he was once involved in, but it doesn’t mean Frankie still can’t get it done. Frankie has been in so many fights where he would literally be on skates in the first round and storm back to win. Exciting at the time but those fights will end up catching up to you and it is apparent that War Frankie’s body may be looking to collect on those debts. It doesn’t get easier against an extremely sharp and neck happy Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace in Pedro Munhoz.
The Black Belt in BJJ has been lingering around the UFC for quite some time, but really never got the full shine he deserved. Starting his UFC run in 2014 he would drop his first fight which is never a good tempo setter. It would then take him a few fights to get his footing until he would rattle off 4 straight with 3 coming by way of submission. He would then drop his next fight to John Dodson, storm back, and win 3 straight including a devastating KO against Cody Garbrahndt and then losing a split decision to uber-talented and champion contender Aljo. Never losing 2 in a row, Munhoz will look to get back on track with the understanding that he isn’t getting any younger either but is still on the right side of his 30’s. At 33 years of age, Munhoz has a record of 18-4 with 9 of them by way of submission and 6 of the 9 by way of Guillotine choke. Munhoz has an uncanny ability to find your neck the minute the time is right or you expose it to him. He will take it on the shot, take it on the ground and look for it in the cinch. He has a very good feel on the timing and when he feels you will expose it by your mechanics and movement. He also has become very comfortable with his striking. He showed that against Garbrahndt where he sat in the pocket and dug his toes in and bit down on the mouthpiece with Cody, winning the exchanges and ultimately Knocking him out. Munhoz is extremely durable as well. Never being finished, I have only seen him on skates and hurt but he never buckled and I am not sure Frankie is going to be the guy to make him buckle here. Franky will be the faster fighter but when it comes to getting to the spots for the duration of 5 rounds I think Munhoz will hold more consistency and less drama. He seems to fight at a good speed and rate and cardio has never really been a major concern in his career, where we have seen Frankie lose some ground late. Munhoz has only been to the 5th round 1 time and he lost that fight by decision. Frankie has been there many many more times and holds a 4-5-1 record when hitting the cards in the 5 round affairs. So we are really uncertain about Munhoz going into the 4th and 5th rounds and how he would fare. With that said, I am not sure it is too much of a cause of concern here for Munhoz. He isn’t a newbie of the game, he just has never received the main event or title shot shine that he is getting now. Edgar is going to give him some early looks that may make him pause a bit. However, I think he hooks Frankie’s neck at some point that will also give Frankie pause with his shots going forward in the fight. Frankie’s shots will have to be very very clean when he decides to take them and he will need to be mindful of that. I think the fight is a really good one. The matchup is very intriguing, but in the end, I think Munhoz has a little more in the tank in the later rounds and pockets the win against Edgar in what should be an exciting main event.
The Pick: Munhoz
Alonzo Menifield DK $8300 / FD $17 vs. Ovince Saint Preux DK $7900 / FD $16
Menifield is one of those guys that understands he has game-changing power. However… Now that I think about it. Does he? His power is proven in the stats and obviously, when you have that much power, you have some stroke of confidence in the pocket. However, something that concerns me about Menifield is that he doesn’t listen to his corner very well. To me, that is an extreme element in fighting. It tells a story about how they can possibly be on the Training Grounds. The reason why I look into this is that fighting is all about adjustments, and if your team is advising you to lean a certain way and you don’t listen, then what adjustments will really be made? The last fight against Devon Clark made me realize how much this kid really needs to work on. His conditioning, his Grappling, and how to really set his punches up, and when they are dialed in, start chaining them together properly. There is no doubt that Menifield is a scary fight for anyone, but there are clear blueprints as long as you have a chin for the 1st round and ½. He takes on the Vet in OSP. OSP has fought some of the Elite in the game but it really depends solely on what OSP you are going to get on any given night. A very long striker that clears space very very well. Sharp hands when he lets them go and his footwork changes from good movement to sitting completely flat-footed. With that said, OSP has an extremely crafty ground game. He is a very patient grappler and he usually has a few different setups for this choke but even tho a fighter knows it’s coming, it tends to be there for him often. With a record of 24-14, OSP has 11 wins by way of KO and 8 wins by submission. 4 of those submissions are by way of his favorite choke that isn’t used too often, created by Jason Flue. Since OSP brought that submission back into the cage, it has recently been re-named, the Von Prueix choke. There is no doubt OSP offensively is very talented. However, you can fold him if you start getting off first. In his 14 losses, he has been KOd 2 times and submitted 3. When you really look at both fighters there are concerns on both sides. For Menifield, it’s his experience, his conditioning and his overall game. OSP has the know-how to get this one done. If he can get this to the ground and keep it there long enough, I think Menifield will have a big issue on his hands. However, OSP also concerns me with his frequency to not pull the trigger sometimes and as of late he looks like his durability looks like it’s starting to fade a bit. He is put on skates much easier these days. I think Menifield isn’t going to show major improvements, but I do think he finds his way in OSP at some point in this fight and stings OSP with something big and sets the tone of the fight. However, he better not hit the ground or gas himself out, because OSP will in fact capitalize late if that’s the case. I’ll give Menifield the Nod here in a very difficult fight for both men.
The Pick: Menifield
Mike Rodriguez DK $8900 / FD $19 vs. Marcin Prachnio DK $7300 / FD $14
Prachnio came into the UFC with some promise. On an 8 fight wins streak with 6 of them coming by way of finish. What’s not to like about a guy that hits with pop and likes to finish fights? However, once he got to the big show there seems to have been something that hasn’t translated yet. He seems very unsure of himself there. He has been KO’d in the 1st round in his last 2 fights because of it. He seems very gun shy and that can change the entire approach to the fight for both fighters. He knows what he needs to do but it just seems as if he is afraid to engage because he doesn’t want to be engaged back. He seems to be fearing getting KO’d more than he is fearing actually losing the fight in spots. The one positive I did notice with him is his confidence can be flipped in the right direction quickly if he gets something off that gets a reaction. He is a fighter that really goes as the fight is going. Going his way? All is well in the world. Not going his way? He just looks like he’s willing to die for it. He takes on Mike Rodriguez with a record of 10-4 with 8 by KO and 2 by Submission. So as you can see, MRod isn’t one to take it to the cards if he has something to say about it. In his 4 losses, he has been finished 1 by KO and 1 by submission. Rod is a long and rangy striker that really understands distance quite well. The Contender Series fighter hasn’t had the greatest success here in the UFC either and that’s why this is such a big fight for both men. I think Prachnio will look good early, but eventually, Rod is going to either sting him or frustrate him and the confidence level of Prachnio may begin to drop. How he responds is anyone’s idea, but I don’t like what I have seen from him. So until he starts to show me that he has the confidence in himself to let his hands go and engage more, I can’t pick him in this spot. I don’t expect this to be the cleanest fight, but one that Rod should be able to win if he plays his cards right.
The Pick: Mike Rodriguez
Dwight Grant DK $8800 / FD $17 vs. Calen Born DK $7000 / FD $13 (CANCELED – GRANT WILL NOW FIGHT DANIEL RODRIGUEZ)
Born comes in as a late replacement with a 7-1 record. Having 4 subs and 2 KOs he does have a wrestling background in his pocket. However, the guy is a brawler and if you have the patience or the composure to really hold onto the reins while he does his thing, then he can be had with sharp technical ability. Grant is a long and rangy fighter with some very good pop in his shots and technical ability to really set up his shots. With a 10-2 record, he has 7 by way of KO and in his 2 losses, he has never been finished. When you look at the opposition that he faced, they were a wide assortment of riddles that he has been able to beat. Pedersoli, a good grappler with a wild striking game. Alan Jouban is a very good striker with a 10th planet grappling game. However, Zakk Otto was able to beat him with the grind. With that said I don’t see Born being able to duplicate what Zakk Otto did in that fight. The chips seemed stacked against him here. I have to go Grant.
The Pick: Grant
Mariya Agapova DK $9300 / FD $19 vs. Shana Dobson DK $6800 / FD $9
Dobson is a very match-up based fighter. She is one of those fighters who is just very vanilla. There is nothing special about her game. No guesswork needed. Just straight boxing. She is actually a decent boxer but in these times of MMA, most people have enough boxing to at least get around. Dobson fares much better when the fight isn’t high paced. She sets things up, likes to reset, and ultimately wants to fight with a balance of rate and pace. Dobson has had no success since her appearance on the TUF. Losing 3 in a row is never a good look and she is on the way to losing 4 in a row which can very well mark the spot to her exit here if she loses. With an overall record of 3-4, Dobson is one of the few UFC fighters with a losing record. I think it’s clear that her time here is most likely short but she can do something on saturday night to maybe buy herself a little more time. However, she takes on a very active and pressure fighting prospect in Agapova. The 23-year-old made quite the statement in her debut, submitting Hannah Cifers. An overall record of 9-1, she has 3 by KO and 4 by submission. In her 1 loss, she has never been finished. The thing that I like about Agapova is that she looks to heat up the fire. She sits on her punches and commits. If she gets the takedown, she looks to advance position and attack. In a nutshell, Agapova is a finisher and Dobson doesn’t fight well when she is under that constant pressure. Her hands aren’t sharp enough, fast enough, or have enough pop in them to really back Agapova up. Agapova should be the bully in there and get her hand raised while Dobson possibly sees her pink slip after dropping 4 straight.
The Pick: Agapova
Daniel Rodriguez DK $8700 / FD $18 vs. Takashi Sato DK $7500 / FD $16 (CANCELED – D-ROD WILL NOW FIGHT GRANT)
Both of these guys have pretty polished approaches to the game. Sato is a very patient striker. He will stalk you until he finds exactly what he wants and unload in little clips. He will never chain together a barrage of strikes unless he reality feels like he has you on the ropes. The one bonus with Sato is that he doesn’t finish fights with accumulation for the most part. He finishes with precision striking. With a record of 16-3, he has 11 by way of KO which shows us how he likes to finish things. With a black belt in Judo and trained under the close eye of Henry Hooft, Sato is a fighter that can be dangerous in many spots. Rodriguez is much more the active fighter with a good standup but he really works well going forward and backward. He also has pretty good head movement and will look for level changes when needed or they are there for the taking. With a 12-1 Record, Rod has a much more diverse style that allows him to finish in multiple ways. With 6 by KO and 4 by submission, he is currently on an 8 fight win streak including his first 2 fights in the UFC. D-Rod still has some work to do but he does show promise and I think he will be the more active fighter in this fight. Both men have a very good finishing rate but I am not sure if the matchup stylistically is going to be a super active one. With that said, I think D-Rod is going to be the one getting off volume clips a little more and once he starts to get his timing down, I am expecting him to go from the hunted to hunting. Could be a very close fight but I feel D-Rod has more tools in the kit to get this one done in what I am projecting to be a pretty evenly matched fight.
The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez
Mizuki Inoue DK $8600 / FD 16 vs. Amanda Lemos DK $7600 / FD 15
Watching Lemos on film it is quite clear her pattern when she fights. She is very cautious in her approach out of the gate. She has a slowness about her style with no real urgency until you press and then she tends to flip a switch in spurts. When the switch is flipped, she will unload a clip and then reset all over again. Lemos also has no problem with pulling guard if she needs to or feels the need to. With a 7-1 record, all of Lemos’ fights have been by finish with 5 by KO and 2 by way of Submission. Her only loss was in her debut against Leslie Smith by way of TKO. Lemos has potential and she will go for it when she sees the opening but sometimes that just isn’t good enough because you aren’t really presenting anything new. Inoue has been around. Even tho she isn’t known by many, She has fought a list of decent names including Bec Rawlings, Jandiroba, Alexa Grasso, KK and a few others. The issue with her is that she has a rough time beating these girls. She was only able to beat Bec and honestly, as tough as Bec is, she is probably the weakest link of them all. Inoue comes to us with a record of 14-5 and 9 wins by submission and 5 wins by Decision. She is very Sub happy and understands that is her greatest path to victory so I am expecting this fight to end up on the ground at some point and even tho Lemos has shown clear ability there, Inoue has shown the ability to capitalize much more on her opportunities. This fight will most likely be a scrappy one but one that Inoue has all the assets to win this fight and win this fight I feel she will.
The Pick: Inoue
Joe Solecki DK $8400 / FD $16 vs. Austin Hubbard DK $7800 / FD $15
I actually commented on a fight that Joe Solecki fought. When I was commentating for ROC, Joe really impressed me with how good his grappling was. Very very smooth transitions, patient and most importantly, he really knows what he’s good at. He is not going to sit there and fight fire with fire for the sake of doing it. He is going to go right to his bread and butter and look to get this to the mat. With a 9-2 record, he has 6 by way of submission and in his 2 losses, he has been KOd one time. The Black Belt in BJJ has a host of submissions but really has a good knack for taking the back and sinking in the Rear Naked Choke with 4 of his 6 Submissions coming from that method. He takes on Austin Hubbard, who actually borderline retired a very very big hype train in his last fight. With a boatload of steam coming behind Max Rohskopf, Hubbard stayed patient and composed and waited for his time to really start leading the dance with his striking. Hubbard was put into trouble in the first round when Max’s slick ability on the ground was looking like it was going to be a major threat. However, Hubbard stayed composed and patient. He then started to really dial in his timing and started to break Max to the point he actually quit in the corner. Hubbard is coming in with a lot of confidence and momentum. However, Joe Solecki is a much higher pedigree grappler than Max and I highly doubt he breaks as Max did. I am expecting Hubbard to come out firing his jab and trying to keep Solecki Honest, but at the end of the day, I don’t think he can stay upright for all 15 minutes. I think Solecki finds his way to the Mat in this one and starts working from there. Solecki wins this one by control time if not by submission.
The Pick: Joe Solecki
Ike Villanueva DK $8200 / FD $17 vs. Jordan Wright DK $8000 / FD $16
When you talk about low-level MMA, this could be an understatement. I am not going to spend too much time here because both men are not fun to watch in any facet. However! Sometimes when you get two cans going at it, it could shape up to be a very entertaining fight. Wright was a competitor on the contender series coming in from Beverly Hills and a very wealthy family. The kid looks like he graduated from Harvard, but one thing I can say about him is that he really doesn’t like to get hit. However, Villanueva has seen his time and the weight fluctuation sometimes can be very taxing on the body. He has the power advantage and the experience in this one but Wright, as bad as he is, is younger, fresher, and will have a little more sting behind his strikes. However, he doesn’t like to hit at all so this one could get interesting. I am going with Wright here with one eye open and one eye closed.
The Pick: Wright
Carlton Minus DK $8500 / FD NA vs. Matthew Semelsberger DK $7700 / FD NA
This fight is much more power vs technique. Carlton Minus comes in with only 1 loss by the hands of very gritty veteran Rick Story back in PFL. With a 10-1 record, Minus has 6 by way of KO and 1 by way of submission. As you can see, he has the full-blown ability to finish fights, but he does it much more strategically. He doesn’t have one-punch KO power, but he has plenty of sting to finish you in an exchange. On the other side of the cage, you have a guy in “Semi” that relies much more on his power to get it done more than a strategic setup. He will throw wild overhand rights and lefts, tie in some solid leg kicks, and really just looks to throw for the fences when he is on the feet. With a record of 6-2, Semi has 4 by way of KO and 1 by submission. He has been finished both times with 1 by KO and 1 by Sub. It’s always a concern getting the call a week before your debut but when that call comes in you take it. Especially after his team has been turning down a few fights in other promotions. I think Minus, being the cleaner striker is going to be able to keep space in this fight. Semi may crash in a few times, trying to land something big, and Minus will keep it moving, frustrating Semi, but scoring in the process. I am looking at this fight going to the cards but Unless Semi can land the bigger shots more often, I don’t see him holding the candle in volume here.
The Pick: Minus
Timur Valiev DK $9100 / FD $20 vs. Mark Striegl DK $7100 / FD $12 (Canceled – replaced with Trevin Jones)
Striegl comes to the UFC with an 18-2 record, with 14 of them by way of submission. He is a good athlete with an overall solid game but his record really is a little inflated if you ask me. Especially after watching his fight with Reece Mclaren. Mclaren came in as a short replacement and really turned the tides halfway through the fight and caught the neck of Striegl halfway through the 3rd round. One thing that I noticed about Strigel is that he really hates checking kicks and that can really soften him up if you dial in and keep attacking. He takes on Valiev with a very similar record of 16-2 with 5 KOS and 2 submissions. Valiev tends to take things to the cards to get his work done, but he really is pretty well rounded with his attacks. Training with guys like Frankie Edgar and Ricardo Almeida, he brings that very clean style with him using a lot of movement and tying things in as needed. I think Valiev is going to find homes for his kicks and just being the aggressor. I think we will see some very good exchanges and some nice transitional work from both men, but in the end, I think Valiev just outworks him for 15 minutes to grab the win.
Well…. Now that fight is canceled. We have Trevin Jones stepping in as a super late replacement. Jones is a good athlete with some clean entries and a decent grappling game. The thing with Jones that I see negatively right out of the gate is his want to take things slow and not be aggressive. You can back him up and dictate the pace very easily with this young man. He will fire off a few solid leg kicks, a few single and double shots, and then really wait for you to crash in before he really makes a move. He is not going to want to do that here against a very active Valiev that constantly moves forward. I am not sure if that is Jones’ style or if that is just the few fights that I watched, but in any event, He will need to throw that style out the window if he wants to outwork Valiev. With a 12-6 record, he has 2 by KO and 4 by Submission. So it is clear that there is a decent chance this goes to the cards and if it does, I do not see him outworking Valiev. Short camp, Debut and a stylistic mismatch. I am not thinking that this one is leaning in his favor here.
The Pick: Valiev
ADDED: Daniel Rodriguez DK $8700 / FD $18 vs. Dwight Grant DK $8800 / FD $17
After both of their fights were scrapped, they will now face each other in what should be a pretty good matchup. However, D.ROD holds the more well-rounded skill set here. I feel like Grant is going to really look to get technical with D.Rod, but at the end of the day, he is really looking to just land that overhand right and call it a day. The issue with that for me against D-Rod is that when you uncork that overhand so often, the hips are there for the taking and I think D-Rod is going to read that early. I’m looking for it to be competitive on the feet, but eventually, I can see D-Rod trying to test Grant on the ground and getting enough control time to edge this out there. I can also see a situation that he really avoids or takes away the overhand right of Grant and keeps circling taking that away from him. D. Rod seems to understand the cage a bit more, in my opinion, and even tho they never moved the prices on DK, there is still some value here if one of these boys can get a finish. I will probably be off this a little more than I would have before due to the matchup and price stance, but I will have some traction on D-Rod. I think he gets it done here.
The Pick: D-Rod
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS
Pedro Munhoz – DK $9000 / FD $21
You would never think to see someone sitting at 9K against someone like Frankie, but times do change and even tho Frankie will always be a tough out for anyone, father time waits for no one. In a 3 round fight, I am sure these numbers would be tighter, but 5 rounds give Munhoz more time to really search and capitalize on something. I will be rostering him despite his price.
Frankie Edgar – DK $7200 / FD $18
The price is kind of insulting if you ask me. On principle alone, you can’t fade Frankie here. You need to remember that when you lose a step it doesn’t mean you lose it every fight. Frankie still has some gas in that tank but it’s just not what it was. However, even tho I am picking Munhoz here. I can’t fade Frankie at this price. There is value here.
Alonzo Menifield – DK $8300 / FD $17
High risk with super high reward here. Menifield is going to give you fury for about 7 minutes of the fight and then start to waver. However, those 7 minutes could be a high upside KO. Get some Menifield.
OSP – DK $7900 / FD $16
The finishing upside is leaning more in Menifield’s favor in this one, but if the crafty vet can hang tight until the later minutes, he may be able to drag this one into waters that Menifield doesn’t seem to fare well in right now. Small play for safety measure.
Mike Rodriguez – DK $8900 / FD $19
I don’t mind him here even tho he is a bit expensive. He is a proven finisher and Prachnio hasn’t shown me anything that indicates he isn’t going to be gun shy in this fight. I think there is some upside here but that is really predicated on the finish so keep that in mind at his price.
Marcin Prachnio – DK $7300 / FD $14
He hasn’t really shown me enough to waste money on him. Unless you are running a mass amount of lineups, which I would understand for the diversity. Outside of that, I wouldn’t rest any eggs on him in the hopes he takes the safety off the gun. Let him show us first. If he does, then we know for next fight – calculate and gauge it then. As of now, he hasn’t shown me anything.
Dwight Grant – DK $8800 / FD $17 (WILL NOW FIGHT D. RODRIGUEZ)
I was on Grant before the fight swap. Now I am pivoting away in this matchup. I don’t like the Matchup for him and although it should be a good fight. I am not paying $8800 for a guy that I think is ultimately going to lose the fight.
Calen Born – DK $7000 / FD $13 (OFF CARD)
Too many unknowns for me here. I’m off.
Mariya Agapova – DK $9300 / FD $19
Pricey here and despite dobsons terrible record and display since reaching the UFC. She is fairly durable. I dare to say that she isn’t as terrible as her record indicates, but I just don’t see any clear paths for her here. However, the price is a bit concerning for me. With that said, you will have room on this card to spend up in spots. So I will take a few plugs on her in the hopes that she is the 2nd person to finish Dobson.
Shana Dobson – DK $6800 / FD $9
Fade. Dobson is on her way out.
Daniel Rodriguez – DK $8700 / FD $18 (WILL NOW FIGHT GRANT)
I was on D-Rod harder in this spot before the scratch out. Now I am still on him but def lighter. Even tho I like the matchup for him, Grant still poses a problem with his awkward style and power. I will flirt with the plays on him here but I will be scaling it back a bit.
Takashi Sato – DK $7500 / FD $16 (OFF CARD)
Sato has some good skills that we really haven’t seen yet. Black belt in Judo and polished striking under the thumb of Henry Hooft, The kid isn’t a pushover. However, he doesn’t present anything with a very different or original blueprint. His fighting is what I like to call “Standard”. Very predictable and even tho the fundamentals are all there, it’s still kind of predictable. It doesn’t mean he can not win this fight because this is a very well matched fight. I just think the heavier weight should be on D-Rod in this spot with a sprinkle of Sato as a backup.
Mizuki Inoue – DK $8600 / FD 16
She looks for the submission and she usually snags one if she’s in a good spot for it. The issue with her is that even tho she has the tough names on the resume, she can’t seem to get by them. She beats the people she’s supposed to beat and then seems to end there. However, Lemos is not that level. So this is Inoue’s fight to win or lose in my eyes. She could be sneaky in this spot.
Amanda Lemos – DK $7600 / FD 15
Lemos sits back on her heels very patiently and then uncorks. Almost like Thiago Santos-ish in a sense. Then she will reset and start over again. She also seems to be comfortable from her back which scares me against someone like Inoue. She’s not going to want to tangle with her down there and I am afraid she will. I’m off her.
Joe Solecki – DK $8400 / FD $16
I announced a fight for this kid and I was very impressed with his ground game. There is true upside for a submission here if he goes to the well early and can avoid the striking of Hubbard while clawing his way underneath going ground and putting on a grappling clinic. I will have shares of this young man.
Austin Hubbard – DK $7800 / FD $15
Hubbard is def riding high after his last win against a big hype train and actually making him quit in the corner. If he can keep this standing, then Solecki can be in a bit of trouble. I don’t hate it in spots, but my official play is Solecki.
Ike Villanueva – DK $8200 / FD $17
Jordan Wright – DK $8000 / FD $16
This fight is such garbage I will just tell you that I am going Wright to win but if you play this fight then you would be nuts not to protect yourself. I don’t think it’s a mandatory fight but the price is right and someone can get finished. So play if you wish but play smart.
Carlton Minus – DK $8500 / FD NA
Matthew Semelsberger – DK $7700 / FD NA
I’m not super high on this fight, to be honest. Minus is the more technical striker and Semi holds the edge in power. The fight has an inside path for both men to get a finish in their own way but I see this as more of a points game here with some highs and lows. I feel like this fight should be priced much closer but possibly because of the short notice they are hooking that in as a factor here. I will have light exposure to this fight but $8500 isn’t a price tag that intrigues me too much on Minus and I am not banking on Semi to win, so it’s probably a fight I have a small taste on but just watch it for the most part.
Timur Valiev – DK $9100 / FD $20
The reason I became much more locked in on him in this spot to win is due to the leg kicking game that he engages in if he sees that you aren’t checking kicks. Well, Striegl has a very serious issue checking kicks and if Valiev gets off early then that can hinder the speed and explosion of Striegl very quickly. Valiev is not a huge finisher so that is a concern here for me due to his price tag, but I am going to get a few shares here.
Note: He is now fighting Trevin Jones and nothing else changes for me. I think this is a more favorable matchup now.
Mark Striegl – DK $7100 / FD $12 (OFF CARD)
Striegl is strong, fast and athletic with a very very good and slippery grappling game, but he doesn’t seem to have that other gear when he needs it. I think Valiev controls the fight and Striegl is playing a fatal game of catchup. I’m off him here.
Jones: Jones is now replacing Striegl at the same price point and he is a fade for me in this spot.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT VEGAS
1.25 Units to win 1
Munhoz ITD -137 (William Hill)
1.37 to win 1
Mike Rodriguez -230
2.3 to Win 1
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