MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown and Predictions!!!
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IMPORTANT NOTE… PLEASE READ:
I would like for you, my loyal subs to be the first to hear it from me. As of the 14th of October, I will no longer be under the Elite Fantasy Umbrella. This is my final piece of content on this platform.
5 years ago, I was 1 of the original 4 horsemen of this tremendous ride (Tommy G, Kevin Adams, Myself and Benny Ricciardi). In that time, I have watched this company continue to grow and grow, and it has been nothing short of amazing to watch. I have met some very amazing people in this industry and in this company. I was able to take my 25 years of boxing, grappling and my educational background in Exercise Science to really dive into one of my truest passions. MMA DFS was not all that big when we started, and I would like to think that I was a part of the springboard to what it has become, along with other people who love and contribute to the sport.
Firstly, I would like to thank Tommy G for all his support through the years and really just trusting me to spread my knowledge to all of you in a manner that I really wanted to, in my own way and my own words. Supporting me in trying new things and just playing with this new monster that I had at my fingertips. So thank you, brother.
I also want to thank Kevin and Benny for being driving forces behind the scenes when things needed to be hashed out or figured out no matter what time it may be. I appreciate them both.
I want to thank Rob, Jeff Mans and the entire Elite staff for making ships sail smoothly, and I am proud to have gone to war during this pandemic with all of you. It was a trying time, but the word team was truly solidified by the way everyone stepped up to the plate and we all helped each other see daylight when things looked bleak. So thank you all Elite. The pleasure has been all mine, and I look forward to seeing all of your success from afar.
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I will be announcing my future plans sometime next week, but I wanted you all to be the first to know and I wanted it coming from me because we have been loyal to each other for 5 years and that, my dear friends, is priceless. Let’s get this card this weekend.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT CARD
Marlon Moraes DK $8000 / FD $19 vs. Cory Sandhagen DK $8200 / FD $21
It is so crazy how people can love you one day and forget you the next. In some aspects depending on who you are talking about, the term “What have you done for me lately” is so true. I remember a short ago when people looked at Moraes like some wrecking ball of the division. There were even people that were so positive that he was beating Cejudo. Then he loses and people kind of forget him. Very odd how the community works in certain times. However, he is taking on a guy that I have been high on for quite some time. When you look at name value you will see this a certain way but when you line them up next to each other you will see something a little different. The matchup tells a much bigger and clear story. When you look at Marlon, he is extremely dominant for the 1st round and half in the majority of fights that he doesn’t finish you in. Explosive, powerful, amazing switch kicks and bone-shattering low kicks. However, if you can get by the first round with Moraes and really let him exhaust out his limbs a bit, he will start to change right before your eyes. Genetically, Moraes is extremely muscular and cuts a good amount of weight. This calls for much more oxygen to keep him going and in turn, you will exhaust much easier than someone a little more limber and loose. With that said, exhausted or not, Moraes will fight until he has nothing left and has a chin of steel. He showed this in his fight with Cejudo. He literally outclassed Cejudo in round 1. Chipping and chipping away at his lead leg until Cejudo was deading the leg with no weight on it near the end of the round. In the 2nd round, Cejudo made adjustments and that is where you need to really look here. Not so much the gas tank but also how Cejudo was able to adjust and Moraes was not. The gas tank absolutely played a big role in it, but you need to be able to adjust and I am not sure Moraes has that ability. He fights one way and you either adhere to it or go off-script and chances are he will not follow. However, if he catches you, you are going to sleep.
Sandhagen is a bit different. Much more crafty and diverse with the ways he approaches you. He can afford to with his very long, wiry frame, pace and conditioning. Sandhagen dropped a really tough fight against Sterling. As high as I was on Sandhagen early on in his career, I picked Sterling there for a multitude of reasons, but Marlon really doesn’t carry the same threats as Sterling and that is making me see this matchup as being a much better one for him. Marlon really has a window here and depending on what side this fight ends up on will be the clear-cut winner in my opinion. There is a very high percentage that if there is a finish early, Marlon will be on the right side of it. That is when he is the most dangerous and that will also give him the time to see if you can adjust. However, even if you can, will you be able to implore it after eating some devastating kicks early. I think Sandhagen can do just that. His long frame at 5’11 and his 70-inch reach which is 3 inches longer than Moraes can keep him moving about the cabin staying away from Marlon’s power. While Marlon looks to do it with 1 shot throwing about 3.5 SS per minute and absorbing the same amount back, while Sandhagen throws a crazy 7 SS per minute and takes back 4 per minute. I think this is a telling tale here. There is a danger zone for Sandhagen here. Round 1 and 2 are the rounds he really needs to keep it moving and moving away from the power of Moraes, keeping him from getting caught clean or caught at all. Moving away from the power will take away much of the pop and sting and this will be very important for Sandhagen. After the 2nd round, you will see a drop off in the activity of Moraes if it gets that far. This is where Sandhagen can really start to pull away just scoring points in the later rounds. If this goes deep then you are looking at a decision win with Sandhagen or a late finish. If this is finished inside the first 1.5-2 Rounds, I would believe Moraes is the one to do it. I think Sandhagen is going to fight much differently coming off a loss here. I think he will fight more cautiously and let Moraes start to show some wear. Once he does, Sandhagen will then open up. Hard to pick against someone with so many bonuses in his corner with conditioning and length being the starkest selling points for me.
The Pick: Sandhagen
Makwan Amirkhani DK $7400 / FD $13 vs. Edson Barboza DK $8800 / FD $19
When you look at fighters that have been in some wars or just have taken beatings in the past, you can see a clear decline in their approach once their feet hit the cage. Their reaction times are off, the speed is gone, the snap is gone and the durability is showing clear wear. This is all predicated on a few factors of course, but if you look at Barboza’s track record, this guy has been in some life-changing fights. With that said he tends to not really lose that step. Even though his record is showing a sea of red. Losing 5 of his last 6, you really need to look at who he has fought. Ige, Felder, JG, Khabib and Kevin Lee. That is a table of tough customers. 2 of the 5 were splits, 1 unanimous and he was finished 2 times. With that said you would think that Barboza really would be an uber shop worn at this point after that run. However, he is not done yet. With thunderous kicks and extremely fundamentally sound striking, Barboza also carries a very good takedown defense at around 80%. Barboza will always be the most dangerous overlooked fighters on the roster.
Amirkhani is a fighter that I really like. Oddly enough he is an SBG guy and those who know me, know how I feel about SBG guys. I never liked any of them. I think they entire camo and kudos have come on the back of Conor. Outside of that, they haven’t really produced anything. Amirikhani is a breath of fresh air for the team because he brings a different style than most SBG guys. He is a very dedicated grappler while he moves his hands into a leveling direction with the help of SBG. However, even though he has had very good success in the UFC, apparently he has not been dialed in like he feels he should have. He claims that he has been very distracted in the recent past. Family and friends just not really respecting his time or training. He apparently trimmed the fat and secluded himself a bit more. Immersing himself in his training is something that I am interested to see what the payoff is for this talented young man. However, much like Moraes, he has proven to lose steam in his fights. Against Burgos, he gassed very quickly and Burgos was able to really do whatever he wanted to him. That is a scary thing to think about if that same issue happens with someone like Barboza who hits a hell of a lot harder than Burgos. Amirikhani is going to without a doubt going to try to ground this fight but Barboza having solid takedown defense and a Black Belt in BJJ if it does get there won’t be an easy task to keep him in place. It just feels like a bad matchup for Amirikhani here.
The Pick: Barboza
Marcin Tybura DK $7700 / FD $16 vs. Ben Rothwell DK $8500 / FD $18
Initially, after seeing this from name value, I was leaning on Rothwell here, However, after seeing Tybura in his training, he just looks a little different to me. It seems he has shed some pounds and it seems as if he is sitting in better physical condition right now. The thing with Tybura is that he really isn’t a bad fighter but he sometimes does not make the best decisions and he also tends to really lose gas quickly if there is a pace put on. Tybura is a very underrated grappler and that is where he is best suited. With that said, he is a hard fighter to trust and he does tend to have problems if he can not secure a takedown in the fight. That will be no easy task against a guy like Rothwell who has a 20-pound advantage on him and will really look to use that weight to grind Tybura on the cage taxing his conditioning little by little. I am expecting both men to come out very tentative but it will be Rothwell looking to move forward and touch Tybura early with hands. Smothering him and making it just a dirty heavyweight fight. However, I am going to go out on a limb here and think that his Tybura’s camp understands the durability of Rothwell and you are not going to sit in the pocket with him and expect to win that exchange. Tybura needs to use his speed and smaller frame to slip away from the much larger Rothwell from allowing him to really corner him. The size of Rothwell and the imposing strength of him will surely work against Tybura and his tank, so it will be super important for him to really be mindful of what he is doing in the cage and utilizing as much of it as he can to keep his back off of the cage. I am going to go out on a heavy limb here and call Tybura in this one. I think that if he stays loose and stays elusive he can find ways to get Rothwell grounded. Rothwell has not been taken down in quite a few years but when people do take that shot on him, you are looking at a 65% takedown defense which isn’t terrible but something that Tybura can surely capitalize on if he is smart. However, we all know that Tybura isn’t the sharpest when he’s in there, but there is a different vibe about him right now and I am willing to take a shot on him here as a dog. Even if it’s a fight the UFC is looking for Rothwell to win.
The Pick: Tybura
Markus Perez DK $7800 / FD $16 vs. Dricus Du Plessis DK $8400 / FD $17
This is odd to me. I feel like this is a mistake in the DK scoring, to be honest. Du Plessis is a good fighter but he is debuting and he is fighting a guy in Marcus Perez that is on a full camp and was slated to fight one of the most decorated BJJ players around in Vierra who is better known as the black belt hunter. Du Plessis is debuting for KSW and is without a doubt a talented kid with decent hands and some very good grappling chops, but he is highly untested in these waters even tho the level of competition he has faced in his career has been solid. When you really look at his overall body of work, he can be hurt and he tends to not really have the greatest ability to break his hips loose from his back if he is put there. Something that Perez will look to exploit. My biggest issue with Perez is that he is more than a wildcard. This guy is simply out of his mind. He will try the most bizarre shit in there even though it is so high risk and sometimes that can really cost him the fight. With that said, he will also throw the kitchen sink at you and hope for something to stick. Perez is extremely durable and has never been finished. The Former LFA champion has had some ups and downs in the UFC but they do like this kid and the entertainment value that he brings to the table. You know Perez is going to go for it every time out, and the only thing that we need to be a tad concerned with is him burning himself out in the process. With that said he was preparing to take on a world-class grappler in this spot so you have to wonder what his approach will be here. I am expecting a very fun fight but a fight where Perez should not be the dog in this spot.
The Pick: Perez
Tom Aspinall DK $9400 / FD $21 vs. Alan Baudot DK $6800 / FD $8
There is something about Frank Mir…lol. I mean Aspinall that I like. This kid has a lot of good tools that may fly under the radar a bit. The former pro boxer with a black belt in BJJ has a very calm and cool approach to his fighting. He moves like a light heavyweight and really just seems very comfortable in there. In his fight against Collier, you really can’t take much from it at all. However, he did his job and he did it beautifully. He understands when to trade when to sit back and most of all when to change things up as far as striking to grappling. At 6’5 255, this kid has the size, athletic ability and the chops to really cause some waves in the heavyweight division. He takes on Baudot who has shown some nice things on film. However, in all the film that I watched, I did notice one thing before I got to his loss. He looks very crisp on the feet before he actually throws a punch if that makes sense. He moves well, has decent footwork, and looks like he can really tie things together soundly. Then once he lets his hands go, he literally just lets them go and his chin just sits on a very reachable shelf. However, he really just would clip them before he would get clipped. Then it all came crashing down in a fight in 2017 when the exact same situation happened with about 30 seconds in. He opened up with a wild exchange and was caught by a face breaking overhand right that literally put him in a catatonic state for a few minutes. It was right there that I knew a very crisp striker would be able to expose that. Well, here we are. Aspinall has that striking pedigree and if it doesn’t work to the fullest extent, he also has the Black Belt in BJJ that he can lean on. I just find this to be a very very good matchup for him and one I feel he capitalizes on.
The Pick: Aspinall
Youssef Zalal DK $8600 / FD $17 vs. Ilia Topuria DK $7600 / FD $15
I know everyone is all over the Zalal train and I get it in a sense but I also expect it. Touts, analysts and casuals will come out after a big win or something special and start touting fighters to the end of days and keep plugging these “Hype trains” until they finally have someone that sticks. I always say be careful who you target because eventually you just look like you are crying wolf. I have stood on an Island alone for over 25 years in this game because I refuse to be swayed by the outside world. If you are swayed by the outside world or you work in conjunction with so many personalities and opinions, it shows weakness in your own thoughts and confidence in your abilities to call fights, fighters and have a mind of your own. If you look at my 5-year run here at Elite, I have never really labeled many fighters as possible special fighters coming up, and all the fighters I have called to be that, I would say it before they actually fought in the UFC or were debuting. I said it about Sandhagen during his debut, I said it about Alexander Hernandez before his debut, I said it about Zabit before his debut and I said it about Till before his debut and very few others. All 4 fighters have not really reached the pinnacle but they are names that everyone knows and have been in some big spots already. Most of these hype trains that have been called by some of these people are here today and gone tomorrow and it’s hysterical. In boxing, I was all over Cotto when he just turned pro and he is a Hall of Famer when it’s all said and done and people thought I was nuts in the beginning. I also said it about Errol Spence and we all know what he is doing in boxing before his accident. So I have a good bead on young and early talent. There are plenty of others out there but unless I see something I really like from them, I won’t jump on the wagon and say “This guy is going to be special”. Zalal is another guy that people are labeling as this special fighter. Off of what exactly tho? Is he good? Yes. Does the kid have potential to be talented and make some noise? Yes indeed. However, he reminds me of a Gamboa. People slated Gamboa into this next coming and although he was good, he had tools missing that I just couldn’t be sold on. He was and is a very good boxer but whenever it came time to fight in the level of the Davis’ and the Crawfords, he was just a step behind. Zalal reminds me of a Gamboa in that way. He is going to beat a certain level of competition but I just don’t see him being this world-beater in the division. This fight is going to prove that. I am expecting him to win this fight but I would not bet a dollar on it. The opposition here is being a bit overlooked and is a very tough customer. With an 8-0 the record he has only seen the 2nd round 1 time in his career. He is a fast starter out of the gate and he will look to really implore his pressure to get you grounded quickly. This is where we are going to really see what kind of overall chops Zalal really does have. This kid is going to test him. However, the blind mark here is that we have no idea what this kid’s conditioning is like because we never had the opportunity to see it. If he does have the conditioning to push that crazy pace for 15 then you can be looking at a very very well contested fight here. We know Zalal can push that pace and we know he has also been here before, so I am giving the edge to Zalal late, but this is not a fight that you should feel confident that he just rolls. I do not see it going down like that so I would def be weary of that when you are rostering.
The Pick: Zalal
Tom Breese DK $9100 / FD $18 vs. KB Bhullar DK $7100 / FD $14
Breese is a guy that has a lot of untapped talent that we have seen glimpses of and then we have seen misses of. Breese is a blown-up welterweight that was supposed to fight last week but his opposition pulled. So they moved it to this week and he now has a late replacement in Bhullar. A well-rounded fighter with an 8-0 record. The fighter is debuting on 1 week’s notice and will try and prove that yet again another debuting fighter can steal some shine. In his 8 wins, he has 4 KO’s and 2 Submissions. Bhullar starts fast and hasn’t seen deep waters outside of 1 fight, so most of the handy work has been done early. So his conditioning is still in question a bit. Listening to him speak, he seems polished and pretty intelligent and that is important to me. A well-spoken fighter or a well thought out fighter can bring a certain translation into the cage with them. However, even tho I am not super high on Breese, he has been on fight Island for 3 weeks now and is fully adjusted and dialed in with the elements there. With an 11-2 record, Breeze has 6 submissions and 4 KOS. In his 2 losses, he has only been finished one time by strikes. I don’t see this as a cakewalk for Breese but a fight he really should and needs to win. He has been on a rotating door as of late with wins and losses in his last 4 fights and this is one that he can’t really afford to lose. A loss to a late replacement debuting fighter will definitely dull up his liking for sure. I think he does enough to get this done given he has a full camp behind him and he seems very comfortable in the spot he is in at the moment. When asked if getting late scratches are frustrating, he replies “I am in competition with myself, so it really doesn’t matter who it is.” I like that answer and that is the mindset you need in situations like this. Breese gets the W here.
The Pick: Breese
Chris Daukaus DK $7000 / FD $11 vs. Rodrigo Nascimento DK $9200 / FD $19
When you look at both of these combatants, you really need to just be realistic here. Both men are heavyweights which should tell you that unless there is a major gap in talent then you can’t be certain of the outcome and if you add in that both men aren’t very good then you really have an issue on your hands. That is the double whammy we are in here. Daukaus has not been a flattering fighter to watch but does come from a fighting family and has shown some promise but there is really not much that blows your hair back when he fights. I can say the same for Nascimento but he is the undefeated one coming into this fight. He is a very grappling heavy fighter that shows on his resume. With an 8-0 record, he has 6 by submissions and 2 by way of KO, so he has never seen the cards yet in his career. As a matter of fact, he has never seen the 3rd round and that is concerning me a bit. Daukaus comes in with much more experiences in all facets. He has gone to the cards. He has been KO’d and he has been submitted. In his 9 wins, he finished all by way of KO except for one by submission. SO he has tasted all the different flavors of victory and defeat, whereas Nascimento has not yet. However, I think Nascimentos grappling is the X-Factor in this one and has enough control time in the more advantageous positions to get this one done.
The Pick: Nascimento
Joaquin Buckley DK $7300 / FD $12 vs. Impa Kasanganay DK $8900 / FD $19
Anytime you have someone who hits with the lead that Buckley hits with, then you know you are dealing with some sort of a danger zone. They always and I mean always have that puncher’s chance. So on a DK perspective, it is something I want you to keep in the back of your mind. Buckley is 10-3, with 7 KOS and 3 Decisions. In his 3 losses, he was KO’d 2 times. Buckley is a specimen. The kid is strong, jacked, and hits like a truck but he is still very very raw. So him being the one to outwork Kasaganay is not probable. However, if he sneaks one in then you could be looking at a lights out affair. With that said, Kasaganay is coming out of Gym-O and training with guys like Bam Bam who is actually in his corner for this fight. The undefeated fighter at 8-0 has a much different approach. He is very calculated and calibrated to his craft. He will rip to the body and head with very tight combos and he understands what it means to stay tight and not get sloppy. The experience he has going into the deep is far greater than Buckley. In his 8 wins, he has gone to the cards 7 times. So he is all about work rate and outscoring you. Against Maki Pittola the Contender series prospect, showed that he will also sit in the pocket with the heavy leather slingers and still deliver the volume to win. Buckley hits hard but it isn’t too far off of Pitolla and Kasaganay handled him very well. I feel Buckley is going to be just shooting for the kill shots while Kasaganay just looks to break him down. The clear value play in DK would be Buckley but the winner of the fight in this one will be Kasaganay.
The Pick: Kasanganay
Ali AlQaisi DK $7500 / FD $15 vs. Tony Kelley DK $8700 / FD $18
A fight that I am not super intrigued about but it most likely will be a decent one. I just can’t get behind these guys for the mere fact that, if I am watching prospects in a sense, I want to see guys that have clear-cut futures and I feel as if these guys will just eventually be here today and gone tomorrow. SO although it will be a fun fight, I don’t see long-term plans in the UFC for either guy. That doesn’t mean they aren’t talented, it just means that they aren’t going to have longevity. Al Quasi has a very herky Jerky style and will crouch down weaving back and forth looking to find his way inside. He has a Kung Fu background so he really doesn’t have a traditional style stance. He has some very sneaky chokes once he locks horns with you but if you understand how to stay in motion the chances are he will end up getting a little lost on the feet with a very very crisp and tight striker. With a record of 8-4, he has 1 KO and 4 Submissions and in his 4 losses, he has only been submitted once. Kelley is much more of a well-rounded fighter that has a few more approaches. He looks at his striking as a means to an end to get you to the ground. If he can’t get it there then he is totally equipped with standing with you with good movement and range striking. With that said, there is no doubt that Kelley would take it ground if he had his way. With a record of 5-2, He has 1 ko and 3 subs. In his 2 losses, he was never finished. I just feel like he has a much cleaner approach even tho in spots it can be awkward and unchained. For the most part, he sticks to his game plan and will not give you looks that he hasn’t shown before. He has gone 5 rounds with Kevin Aguilar, so we know he has a chin and we know he has the cardio to go 5 never mind a good hard 3. I like him in this spot as long as he keeps his neck safe on his shots and in the clinch.
The Pick: Kelley
Giga Chikadze DK $7900 / FD $16 vs. Omar Morales DK $8300 / FD $17
I really like this fight a lot and I honestly think this should be higher on the card. Chikadze is truly a seamless and fundamentally sound Kick Boxer with extremely high striking acumen. He utilizes all the approaches so well. His feints, his ability to switch stances on the fly giving you so many different looks, his ability to set traps, and the way he understands range. He needs time rounding out his game but as of now it really hasn’t tarnished the record. With a 10-2 record, he is 3-0 in the UFC. You can argue some of the wins given there were 2 of those 3 by split. However, we go by what it says on the paper and 3-0 it is. However, he is facing a very under the radar fighter in Omar Morales. Morales brings a very solid pace with slick boxing, power, speed and pressure. He also is not afraid to take things to the ground and really get you to grind on the ground with him. With that said he does most of his handy work with his boxing and pressure. I think this boils down to the volume and the pressure of Morales here. In a super close fight, this should be enough to edge a really close decision here. However, this line is off. It should def be closer to a pick em’.
The Pick: Morales
Tracy Cortez DK $9000 / FD $17 vs. Stephanie Egger DK $7200 / FD $10
I can’t figure out why this is so unbalanced here. Cortez is a tough fighter with a lot of chops all across the board. She can really take the fight wherever you want to take her and do quite well. However, she really isn’t a pure specialist anywhere. Being undersized for the division she uses that full-pressure bulldog approach to get her respect in the cage. With a record of 7-1, Cortez does most of her handy work in the long stretch. With 1 submission and 1 KO, she has 5 by way of Decision. In her 1 loss, she has been submitted 1 time. Coming in on late notice is Egger. Egger is a Judo specialist that has been decorated in numerous world-class tournaments including the ADCC. Egger comes into this fight the bigger fighter that is not as well versed as Cortez but has much more of an opposing frame to her. Now here is some food for thought. Judo players really never had a ton of success in the UFC outside of very few like Rousey and Karo. It’s a slim pool when it comes to top-level Judo players historically. With that said some of the things that Cortez does will feed into that player’s system. Having the stronger and naturally bigger frame, Egger will be able to really control the clinch and it seems Cortez does like to engage there. Even tho Cortez has very solid wrestling and BJJ game, if you tie in close with a high-level Judo player, chances are you can be going for a ride at some point and if Egger gets top control, she has a very very rough and tough Ground and Pound once she secures mount. I really really don’t understand this price tag and I can’t justify it. I can see Cortez winning this fight but that price is just not justifiable at all and for that reason, at all I am going to go against the grain here and give Egger the nod in a close one. This is not going to be a bet in any facet but this isn’t the worst swing in the world and Egger is getting a bit disrespected here.
The Pick: Egger
Bruno Silva DK $6900 / FD $9 vs. Tagir Ulanbekov DK $9300 / FD $20
Both of these guys like to get things done in the mud. Ulanbekov is your typical Eagles MMA style fighter. You know exactly what to expect. You have Khabib and then you have all the lower grade versions of him that are still beasts. Ulanbekov gets things done with strong wrestling, a grinding top game and he waits for the opportunity to force the window completely open when he sees it cracked. He isn’t getting submissions off his back with super loose hips and fluid transitions. His submission game is not made up that way. He is more of a top control first and submission later if it’s there. Silva is different. Also likes to grapple but he has much more of the traditional BJJ style to his game. More slippery style transitions and hunts for the submission rather than let it flow to him. The issue when you have these two types of grapplers is that the top control fighter usually holds the Ace here if he truly understands weight distribution. In this fight, I feel as if he will be able to do just that. Get the top control, control the clock, and really pin his hips down not allowing Silva to get loose. Silva is going to have his opportunity early on in the fight with some of his dynamo style approaches, but once he gets figured out, I think he will spend some time on his back in this one.
The Pick: Ulanbekov
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS
Marlon Moraes DK $8000 / FD $19
At 8k, Moraes has clear upside for 1 reason. Not because it’s a 5 round fight. Because if he wins this fight, he will need to do it within 3 rounds. We all know that his conditioning is not the most stellar out there and Sandhagan has Cardio for days. So he will surely cover his value if he wins this fight considering it would be by finish if he did and to be quite honest, it’s a very realistic outcome. Get some…
Cory Sandhagen DK $8200 / FD $21
I think he will be higher owned than the 2. He is long rangy, tricky, durable, and has boatloads of talent. He had a tough outing against Sterling who is extremely high pedigree on the ground and he gave Sterling what he wanted. With that said if he can withstand the early kicks and overall game of Moraes early then you are going to see him start to pull away late. A very very Hedgeable fight and one I personally have Sandhagen winning late.
Makwan Amirkhani DK $7400 / FD $13
Even tho I picked him to lose in this spot. I really like this kid. I like his moxie and I like the way he approaches fights. He knows that grappling is where it’s at for him and against Barboza, I think he knows that’s his only path to win. So I am expecting him to shoot hard and fast in the 1st round. In turn, if he locks up a submission early then his value goes through the roof. However, it’s much much easier said than done. I’ll have a small taste but I think this is a bad matchup for him, but he’ll live until the conditioning starts to rear its head.
Edson Barboza DK $8800 / FD $19
Barboza has been in some wars but he has proven that he really doesn’t leave a big part of himself in the cage. He is down on his luck lately in terms of his resume but we have seen Amirikahni come out very very hot and fade hard and quick in spots. I think if Barboza can line him up late with one of those signature high kicks, we can see Amirikhani out late. However, the price tag is hovering in the area of borderline good and too high. However, Barboza always has the equalizer to take a swing with, so I will have some but a little lighter because Amirikhani is going to live and die getting this to the ground. So roster in the hopes Barboza can find the open window if you roster him. I’ll def have some.
Marcin Tybura DK $7700 / FD $16
Let’s face it. Rothwell hasn’t been the same guy as of late. I think Tybura is faster, the better athlete, and the fresher fighter career-wise. Tybura makes some very foolish decisions at times but when he is on his game he really isn’t that bad. Good stand up and Good grappling, he can be a problem here. He’s totally live and there is value in his price.
Ben Rothwell DK $8500 / FD $18
I think he is a bit too expensive for me here. He is without inline for a KO win against anyone and Tybura has been waxed 4 times in his career by lesser men. With that said I think the movement of Tybura may keep Rothwell chasing him and let’s face it, Rothwell hasn’t been the Rothwell of old lately. I think he’s in play but I will be a little less exposed than most here. Especially because I think Tybura is super live. However, you need a taste of the heavy hitters but I will lean a little heavier on Tybura for the value.
Markus Perez DK $7800 / FD $16
He is the one with the full camp. He trained to fight a much higher pedigree fighter in Rodolfo Vierra and now gets a last-minute replacement fighter who is debuting. The kid is actually good but the odds are stacked against him here from the preparation standpoint. With Perez on a full camp and ready to go, I think he is one of the more live dogs on this card.
Dricus Du Plessis DK $8400 / FD $17
I know his price isn’t super high but I am not expecting a finish here against Perez if he wins. It will most likely be by way of decision if he does walk away with the W. Perez is extremely durable and in his 3 losses has never been finished. I know there is a first time for anything but I don’t see DuPlessis being the guy to finish him. He is also a last-minute replacement against a very talented and tough Perez on a full camp. Hard to get behind that even when he is the favorite for whatever reason. Small taste if any.
Tom Aspinall DK $9400 / FD $21
I really like this kid. Very well rounded and very composed in there. I agree that 9400 is a rough tag off of a sample size but I am willing to roster him in spots for sure. A finish is on the horizon for one of these guys in this one and I am thinking it will be Aspinall getting it done.
Alan Baudot DK $6800 / FD $8
Youssef Zalal DK $8600 / FD $17
I picked him to win…. However, this fight really scares me… I’m actually staying away here.
Ilia Topuria DK $7600 / FD $15
He is a live dog but I wouldn’t invest too much here or on this fight. However, if you want to really try shocking the masses if he wins. A plug or 2 won’t kill ya.
Tom Breese DK $9100 / FD $18
So untrustworthy he is, man. He’s not what he was supposed to be, but I think he gives a good account of himself here. If he does not then I will probably be done with having faith in him. He’s been on fight Island for 3 weeks due to a date change and now he has a short-notice replacement. If he can’t get it done here. I would tell him to reassess things. I am going to have some cautious shares here.
KB Bhullar DK $7100 / FD $14
You need to fade spots and even tho this is a dangerous spot to fade with Breese being so unpredictable. I’m fading him.
Chris Daukaus DK $7000 / FD $11
Hedge the big boys with a taste of Daukaus just incase. It only takes one mistake or being in the right spot at the right time.
Rodrigo Nascimento DK $9200 / FD $19
He is submission or bust at this price. Hey, I am all about risk to reward. I’ll risk a few spots for the big man. If he falls on his face, then so be it. However, what if he doesn’t fall on his face? Exactly.
Joaquin Buckley DK $7300 / FD $12
Buckley does hold value with his power. He is literally the punchers chance defined here. For that reason alone I will have a few smalls on him for protection of him clipping Kasang. However, if he doesn’t get him early, the cardio of Kasang will start to take over.
Impa Kasanganay DK $8900 / FD $19
Tough tag on someone that really does a lot of his handy work by decision. I must say that the kid looks to be in sick shape and training at Gym-O and having Bam Bam side by side with him is never ever a bad thing for his toughness and grind. However, you are fringing with a price tag like that. I think he is a safe play in terms of if he wins he should scrape that value with his volume but there is def going to be a period where he plays it safe with a guy like Buckley so tread lightly.
Ali AlQaisi DK $7500 / FD $15
I have him losing here but the guy does have some sneaky subs and if you expose your neck he will find it. Small value here but it’s a fight that in its entirety, I may just sit back and enjoy.
Tony Kelley DK $8700 / FD $18
I’m going to stay away from this play here. AlQaisi is sneaky and tough. Kelley is going to have to play a bit of a game with him and I don’t know how that will translate with the scoring. I don’t see him being in the optimal lineup quite honestly.
Omar Morales DK $8300 / FD $17
Giga Chikadze DK $7900 / FD $16
Awesome fight! However, you need to hedge it. I will be on Morales a little more in this spot but this fight is going to be razor close and should be ultra fun!
Tracy Cortez DK $9000 / FD $17
In a fight you don’t need in your lineups, I don’t think Cortez covers her value here. I’m off her.
Stephanie Egger DK $7200 / FD $10
She’s live here. Bigger, stronger and an ace in Judo. For someone like Cortez that likes to clinch, that can be a very bad idea because judo players will bring you for a ride once you get in close. However, it’s a fight you don’t need, but if you really want to get different in large field GPPS, I don’t mind here as a live dog.
Tagir Ulanbekov DK $9300 / FD $20
Big tag here, but I think if he wears Silva down with that grind, he can finish it late. However, if he doesn’t finish here then he will need to put on a hell of a pace and the jitters are something that you don’t know if they will affect him until fight night. So be careful here.
Bruno Silva DK $6900 / FD $9
If he finds a window to throw up a submission then he can blow the roof off of. I have no issues if you roster a small taste and go submission hunting. However, don’t Bank on it because I am not picking him here.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT VEGAS
We need to hope he gets out of the 1st 2 rounds but if he does he wins. Its worth a shot at this price. Moraes hasnt showed me that his cardio can hold up after those rounds.
1.35 to win 1
Nascimento by Submission +110
So much bigger during the weigh ins and Daukus has been finished in all 3 losses, while Nascimento has finished all of his opposition. Seems like a decent look. Fuck it.
.50 to win .55
Kelley by Decision +145
Alquasi looked really bad on the scales but is really tough in general. I think this fight has a chance to be a finish but all signs are leding this way so I am willing to take a small stab at plus money
.5 to win .73
I like the pressure of Morales and he keeps it up the entire 15 minutes. Not crazy about this line but I like Morales and I want a little juice on it.
1.6 to win 1
Egger +160 (This is just a value play at this point)
This is a sheer FEEL play. World class Judo with the bigger more imposing frame. This is going to be a very very good fight which I am gauging to be very close. So at +160 I am interested in a small Taste for the value.
.5 to win .80
1 Unit to win 1 Unit
.5 unit to win .6
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