MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Copenhagen Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT MAIN CARD
Hermansson 9200 vs Cannonier 7000
Hermansson has really impressed and surprised me as of late. With a 20-4 record, he’s on quite the tear. After losing to Thiago Santos he turned a quick corner beating Laites, Meerschart, Branch, and Souza. With 11 KOs and 5 Subs, Hermanson can get it done anywhere, and at 31 years of age, he is primed to make a serious run (which has already started). In his 4 losses, the Swedish fighter has lost 2 by submission and 1 by KO. Hermansson does nothing with smoothness or grace. He is quite choppy in his movements, and even though he is a very, very well-rounded fighter, nothing he does ties together smoothly. However, it WORKS for him, so why change something that isn’t broken? Quite honestly, it’s mostly likely because he has an awkward athletic style. You will see what I mean if you really pay attention to his movements. They are more herky jerky than you would see from a more fluid fighter. He will be taking on Jarred Cannonier, and, to be honest, I am not sure where this guy came from all of a sudden. It seems like one day he was sitting in the roster filling arena and now he is getting all these opportunities in big spots, and I am really not sure why. He lost 2 straight fights and bounced back to win his last 2 against an aging Anderson Silva and David Branch. How that qualifies him to get all these opportunities makes me wonder. The 12-4 fighter has shown us spots of his ability but he has also shown us spots that would make you want to turn the TV off. The one thing intriguing about this fight is the striking. Jared can bang. With 7 KOS under his belt, he throws with enough heat to put you on notice or flatten you out. With that said, what happens if The Joker takes this ground? How will he fare there? With a 44% takedown defense and The Joker sucking in over 2 per affair this could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in this one. I already give the striking edge in volume to The Joker given that he lands over 5 sig strikes per minute to Jared’s 3, which also shows you that he is the more active of the 2. I would say that Jared holds the better one hitter quitter power, but, outside of that, I am just not sure where this fight makes a ton of sense for The Joker. I feel like Jared has everything to gain here and the Joker has much more to lose. However, these are the fights that can be quite dangerous. However, the fight is in Denmark where The Joker will have a ton of support, and he is just the clear cut better fighter here for me. I think Jared is what you would call solid but I don’t see him as a major threat or a major player in the game. I do, however, see bright things on the horizon if The Swede can keep things rolling to 5 in a row. I think he does here.
The Pick: Hermansson
Madsen 9500 vs Belluardo 6700
Honestly, this fight should be a joke. Madsen is an extremely high pedigree wrestler with a silver medal in the 2016 olympics. We all know in MMA that a high level wrestler can tie little elements together in order to set up what he really wants on the ground. Madsen is one of those guys where no matter who he fights and what kind of wrestling they have, it’s safe to say they don’t want to play on that side of the yard because Madsen will own them. The undefeated fighter has an 8-0 record with 2 KOs and 3 Subs and will debut against a poor soul in Belluardo, who is literally being left out for feeding. The Italian fighter will have one attribute in his corner and that is his length. The 6ft Italian holds a 12-3 record with 6 KOs and 3 Subs. He does have some ability, but when you look at the matchup, it is clear that the UFC wants this kid to be a ragdoll. Being longer is not always a good thing. In a stuation like this, the 5’7 Madsen will have clear paths to his hips and will most likely use this to his advantage very, very quickly. Given that Madsen is a pure wrestler, you have no idea what his finishing mindset will be. You need to remember that wrestlers are groomed for position over submission and even though you can rewire and reset, it doesn’t happen over night, and this is Madsen’s debut in front of his people. So you wonder how safe he plays this fight to just control and win. The question is not if Madsen wins – because I really think he does – the question is will he look to advance for a finish, or play it safe in his debut and control the clock? I see no way the Itaian wins this fight unless he catches him cold.
The Pick: Madsen
Nelson 7900 vs Burns 8300
In my opinion, this should be the headlining fight. I know that Gunnar has had his woes as of late but the matchup is just so intriguing to me. These guys are so very similar that it is really hard to gauge where this one will go. On one hand, we know that as good as Gunnar is on the ground holding a Renzo Gracie Black Belt in BJJ, there are very few with better credentials than Burns in the Division. So, from a grappling stand point, I would give the edge to Burns, but I think he respects Nelson plenty and vice versa. You have to wonder if someone is going to want to make a statement there or if this will play out on the feet because of that mutual respect. Personally, I would love to see this end up a grappling fest. When you have 2 men at this high of a level in BJJ, it’s a treat to watch. The concern here for me is more of who initiates it first and who succeeds in Top Control from the gate. Both men are very good once it’s there but getting it there sometimes can be an issue for both men. Burns averages about 2 Takedowns per fight but lately he’s fallen in love with KO’ing people. I get it, the feeling is different, and it becomes addictive, but when your bread and butter is your submission game, straying from it is not the greatest of ideas. His striking has come a long way, but I just feel as if you have a weapon on that level, use it to a fault. It’s concerning that we just don’t know what Burns we’re gonna get fight-to-fight. On Gunnar’s side, you have to wonder how he is holding up these days. As talented as he is, he just seems to have lost some of that confidence that he once had that made him so dangerous. It still shows up in spots, but just when you think he’s turning a corner, he has a performance like he did in his last fight against Edwards. There is no reason why a striker like Edwards should own Gunnar at his own game. Edwards was able to secure takedowns and control Gunnar in ways that just really shouldn’t happen, and that is concerning to me. I feel like sometimes Gunnar puts himself in spots that he just accepts and you can’t do that when there is a 15-minute window to make things happen. Burns will bring a heavy pace to him and it is going to be up to Gunnar to sit back with his Karate-based style to either stay patient and let Gilbert blow some wind or engage and play a very dangerous game with him. I feel like Gunnar at his best wins this fight, but I am just not sure who we are getting here. With that said, I am going to take Gunnar in a very, very close fight that can honestly go either way. He will have the crowd support, and in a close fight like this, the judges can be slightly influenced by crowd reactions. That makes me lean his way a bit more here.
The Pick: Nelson
Cutelaba 7800 vs Rountree 8400
This is a very tricky fight and one I doubt reaches the final horn. Cutelaba is 3-3 under the UFC umbrella and, obviously, in a situation like this, he feels an urgency to win. The thing with Ion is it’s either super easy or super hard. He is extremely matchup based, and unless his opponent is willing to go in there and slang and bang from the opening moments, it seems he will have some issues. Very powerful hands with an average wrestling game, Ion is one of the guys who has potential but is stuck in a brawler’s mentality. That is fine on the regional scene and when you are fighting the journeymen of the UFC, but once you hit a certain point, that just no longer works anymore. I am not saying that he can’t change because he absolutely can, but after six fights under the banner, he hasn’t yet, and that is certainly a concern for me. My biggest issue with him is his cardio. You will get the Best Ion in the first round, and if you are willing to sit back and be patient, then the 2nd round brings a new fighter and the 3rd brings another new fighter. He starts to fade and he starts to fade fast. Rountree, unlike Ion, took a very big leap in his last fight against Erik Anders. He looked extremely sharp and comfortable on his feet. He was calculated, composed, and his kicking game was on point in all ways. He actually did look like a different guy. Even though you can’t change overnight, it shows that Roundtree is taking his career very seriously and is putting the work in, win or lose. After seeing Rountree in his last fight, we really don’t know if he’s made another leap for this one. We do know what Ion will do, and I think Rountree does as well, and for that you have to give Rountree the preparation edge. KR has some serious hands – we’ve all seen them on display – but now that he’s coming into his own, he’s earned the opportunity to have some eyes on him. Like Ion, he holds a mediocre record under the umbrella at 4-3, but if this is the new and improved KR, then I think it’s safe to just put the rest of his past fights aside for the most part because he seems a bit different. The big issue I do have with KR is his take down defense is not very good and I’m worried that if Ion becomes commited early to the takedown, this could get ugly quick. However, if Ion wastes a lot of energy trying these takedowns and doesn’t succeed, he will gas out quickly. KR should be aware of this going into the fight. He should bait him into taking shots then shrug him off over and over again. His new found leg kicking game, coupled with his heavy hands, may be too much for Ion as they get deeper into the match. Rountree has shown me such a different side of him that it would be really hard not to pick him against a guy who hasn’t evolved at all.
The Pick: Rountree
Oleksiejczuk 9100 vs OSP 7100
At one time OSP was one of the very dangerous men in the division. Very good striking and an extremely sneaky and creative ground game to match. With a very modest 23-13 record, he has lost 3 of his last 5, and we’re seeing his gradual decline. When dialed in, there is no doubt that he can absolutely hang with the best of them, but he hasn’t been able to do it consistently of late. I’m not saying that he isn’t dangerous because the guy can absolutely KO you or hook you up before you even blink. The issue with OSP is that he is getting older, and I’m starting to wonder how much longer he can fight before it gets ugly. I understand that he isn’t totally washed yet, and he may even have a surge of life left in him, but eventually this will all come crashing down. I’m just not sure when. He is fighting MO who has not lost a fight since 2014 and has yet to lose in the UFC after 3 dances, one of which was a no contest. With a 14-2 record, he has won 10 of them by way of KO, and in 2 losses, he lost one by KO and one by Sub. MO would much rather use his quickness to keep this standing, which is probably the best bet for him against such a sneaky grappler in OSP. MO’s straight forward approach worries me for OSP. He seems to be getting rocked easier and easier in every loss, and MO will be in his face testing him out on Saturday night. This fight isn’t super appealing, and I do think both men hold their spots, but at the end of the day, Michal should be the one controlling the tempo and landing the bigger shots putting OSP on watch and maybe even on skates. It’s really hard to side with OSP when you know what he once was and now see him in slow decline. It’s just not a comfortable spot to take him against a guy who has given me no reason not to trust him and who continues to win. Good fight but one that possibly sends OSP into questioning.
The Pick: Oleksiejczuk
Dalby 7400 vs Cowboy Oliveira 8800
After landsliding in the UFC, Nick Dalby put his energy back on the regional scene to shape up. With a 15-3 record, his 3 losses all came strung together on the tail end of his UFC run. Since then, Dalby has put together a set of wins to earn him another crack under the UFC umbrella, and it seems as if he is ready to push all his demons aside and make the best of it. Dalby is a tough kid but he has fought many things both in and out of the cage. If you look at his fighting resume, it’s tough to take his measure, but it’s at least easier than others with minimal exposure. We know he’s been a success on the regional circuit, but has struggled to clear the stump in the UFC against more evolved fighters. So where does he really stand? Well, we’ll find out a bit more in this fight as I consider Cowboy to be better than average. His record fluctuates, but he’s always competitive, and he has fought, beat, and lost to some of the better guys in the division. So it’s safe to say that Cowboy is right there in the thick of it. However, it would be an understatement to say that he hasn’t been flighty in his approach. His 19-7 record is on a different level than most considering the opposition he’s faced, including Darby. With 12 of those 19 wins by KO, it’s clear where Cowboy does his best work. Coming off of 2 very tough losses to Mike Perry and a blood bath with Gunner Nelson, I’m a little worried about his durability given the number of wars he’s been in. At the young age of 31, he has a faster burning wick than someone with a cleaner fight history. That said, the guy loves to fight and he is pretty damn good at it, too. Both men have a similar trait in that when they get beaten up, they tend to move forward. Both men also average about two takedowns an affair, and if it hits the ground, it will likely all boil down to who gets top control first. There is no doubt that Cowboy is the better, more seasoned fighter, but Dalby won’t go quietly into the night. He has never been finished and he will be in your face until the end. Especially when you are talking about a 2nd chance like the one he is getting on Saturday night. Cowboy has shown the ability to fold in spots, and if he doesn’t come in mentally ready for a war against a guy he probably wont finish, then Dalby can walk away with this one. I think for this fight alone, it is a good thing that Cowboy lost his last two fights. This means there is pressure on him not to fold or buckle. He needs this fight because dropping 3 in a row is usually when there’s talk of a pink slip. I think Cowboy is going to have to fight through some very tough spots with Dalby in this one but if he really wants to save his roster spot then he is going to need to turn that dial a little bit and make the UFC Brass believers again. I think he does. I don’t think he finishes Dalby, but I think we see a very good, scrappy fight where he grinds through and pulls off a very close decision.
The Pick: Cowboy
UFC FIGHT NIGHT UNDER CARD
Amedovski 8200 vs Phillips 8000
If this isn’t a bar room fight then there’s no such thing. I dare to say that, overall, Phillips might be one of the most unskilled fighters in the UFC. The guy is just not good at all. The only thing that he has going for him is a very good chin and a hell of a haymaker if he connects. Outside of those two things, there is not a single thing that catches my skilled eye. He has no footwork, he has no clue on how to create angles or bait traps. He has zero head movement and no clue on how to set up his power strikes. He is clearly just a rough bar room brawler. That said, the style is fan friendly because of the KO potential, even if its pitiful to watch. What you can expect from a Phillips fight is about 1.5 rounds of him looking for the kill switch, and if he fails, he’s ripe for the plucking. His gas tank shuts down, and if you have any striking or grappling ability at all, you will be able to expose his chin and his body like a heavy bag hanging in your basement. However, he is fighting a guy that has a very similar style with a touch more of a grappling game behind him. However, if Philips ever wanted a dance partner to stay on the feet with him, the Amedovski may just be his partner at the gala. These are the only types of fights that Phillips can win, and if you are not intelligent enough to stay away from a fire fight for the 1st round, then you honestly deserve to lose to Phillips. And chances are you will probably get KO’d by him, too. The last thing Amedovski wants to do is meet him in the middle when the starting gate opens. He wants to be patient and to create space. Make Phillips reach and use footwork to circle away from his power side. Keep his power hand at bay. He’ll see it cocked the entire time. He will not try to hide it. He’ll have it cocked like a 12 gauge, and it’s an easy job to frustrate him by staying out of range and making him reach. However, the film I have seen on Amedovski scares me. He really doesnt grasp the concept of patience all that much and that could really play into Phillips’ hands. I can see him actually doing the right thing until Phillips gasses but I can also see him getting flatlined because he wanted to have a jock measuring contest in the center of the cage. Either way, I do think this is a dangerously close fight, but I just can’t pick Phillips here. He’s awful. If he KO’s this kid then I still wont be impressed, because all he has is durability and power, but sometimes that’s all you need in this game to get by in certain spots. I just can’t bank on that though there is a chance he ends with a highlight.
The Pick: Amedovski
Di Chirico 7600 vs Muradov 8600
Muradov is a really interesting guy to watch fight. He will skirt around the cage almost like he is drifting away from you to draw you in, and then he will explode forward and use that same energy against you jumping into the pocket, whether it be for a shot or to throw a wild combination. His style is without a doubt unique and it takes a very different fighter to really be able to lay a bead on it. With a 22-6 record, the Floyd Mayweather prospect has 15 wins by way of KO, and is looking to make good on that reputation on Saturday against Di Chirico, who will glad do the chasing. I look at Di Chirico as a fighter on the cusp. He is on the edge and walking a fine line between being ok and bad. He has done some nice things, but he has also had plenty of underwhelming performances. This fight can push him to the bad side if he chases too much. With a record of 12-3, he has shown us that he can handle a wild style when he beat Bamgbose, but a wild style is different then the drifting in and out style of Muradov. No matter how you look at this fight, he’ll have to be patient, but taking a patient approach can be confusing, and I’m not sure if Di Chirico has the ability to sit tight and let the fight come to him. That takes discipline and experience, but it doesn’t mean that he can’t. I just personally don’t think it’s in his fighting style. This is a very dangerous fight for both men, but I think Muradov knows that this is his fight to win or lose, especially with Mayweather’s hands in this one. He still has to fight and win, but it doesn’t hurt when Mayweather is involved.
The Pick: Muradov
Bahadurzada 7200 vs Naurdiev 9000
Naurdiev looked really bad against Chance Recounter. I learned that as good of a grappler as he is, pressure wrestling is one of his weak spots. Chance was able to own him on the ground and accepting position was all that he could do in most spots. It was actually very disappointing to watch. That is taking nothing away from Chance because he fought the perfect fight, but Naurdiev’s grappling ability was frozen. Cage jitters could have caused it. He wasn’t loose and he just didn’t fight at all like he has in the past. He was never really able to get into any kind of a tempo. He would fire off a few good shots but then hit the ground, accepting everything that Chance threw at him. With an 18-3 record, the Australian wonderboy now has made me skeptical until he can prove otherwise. With 11 wins by way of KO and 5 by way of submission, his chops are there, but in his debut, he seemed to have the safety on when needed to pull the trigger. His hesitancy will be a concern going forward until he feels more comfortable in there. He is going to need to shake that off quick because although Bahadurzada isnt going to swarm his hips like Chance did, he is going to throw heat with bad intent on every movement he makes. So Naurdiev will really need to be warm and loose from the gate. With a 24-7 record, Baha has 14 wins by way of KO and 6 by way of submission. While both men are primarily strikers, neither has been KO’d by strikes. So this could be very interesting to watch. In Baha’s last fight against Millender, you could see he had a hard time getting comfortable and figuring out Millender’s range. He wasn’t making adjustments and he basically just tried to use brute force to get into the pocket instead of setting things up. He will not have to worry about that with Naurdiev here because, unlike Millender, he is not as long and he pushes forward. This will be a style matchup where both should thrive. Both have shown durability so its hard to nitpick on who has the finishing edge here. I would say that Baha might have the edge to finish because everything he throws has intent behind it while Naurdiev is more calculated in his approach, picking and choosing his spots. That said, I am going with Naurdiev here, by a little. I think he really needs this win to get back one he shouldn’t have lost. Chance’s successful takedowns forced him to really lay bag on the trigger because he needed to guard 2 levels. Baha will go for takedowns, and if he gets it there he can drag the clock, but he isnt going to worry about that as much here, so I am expecting him to open up more and show us more promise. I hope that’s the case at least.
The Pick: Naurdiev
Davis 8700 vs Chikadze 7500
This is another matchup where both men have a similar ace up their sleeve. If you enjoy good fluent striking then you’ll like watching Davis. He has good footwork, good movement, and he ties his punches together extremely well. The issue I have with him is that it all kind of ends there. With a 10-7 record, he has shown the ability to dish it out, but also to really take it back too much at times. As good as his striking patterns are, has issues leaving his chin on a shelf to be had. It’s kind of odd to me that someone as polished as he is in this department wouldn’t understand the art of defense and head movement. Don’t get me wrong, he isn’t walking in there like a robot, but he doesn’t slip and move around as much as he should. People fail to understand that slipping and head movement not only helps a fighter avoid punishment, but it creates new angles and helps set traps for the opposition. So is he a good striker? Yes, but does he understand all the elements that are involved within the sweet science? Absolutely not. I know it sounds like I am super critical of certain people but this is my job and I take it very seriously when it comes down to gathering info and trying to make sense of it all. The cold hard fact is that he is a very opportunistic offensive striker who needs to play the other strings to make sweet music. He’ll need to do that if he plans on playing that game with Chickadze who has a very good kickboxing background and is no stranger to throwing hands. The difference between he and Davis is he understands how to use all four limbs. The issue both men have is the ground game. Neither of them have any sort of impressive wrestling or grappling. The question becomes: who is willing to leave their comfort zone to win this fight? The path for both men is quite simple here. Leave your comfort zone and go ground. This is MMA, guys, you can NOT live in this world with just one element of fighting in your pocket. I say this over and over again. It will only take you so far before your blueprint fails. Everyone needs to evolve, and if you don’t, you will have a very short shelf life. I think Davis just has a little more in the tank here all the way around. Even if this stays on the feet, he just seems like he has more ability to spit out a little more in the face of the judges. I am super curious to see if someone leaves their comfort zone, but even if they dont, I have to go with Davis.
The Pick: Davis
Chiasson 9400 vs Lansberg 6800
They call Lansberg the Queen of Elbows, and for the most part I get it. However, lets not get crazy. I agree that her most dangerous weapon is her elbows, but I wouldn’t refer to her as the Queen of Elbows. She has a very balanced rotations of wins and loses in her last 6 fights. She is exactly what her record shows, very up and down. The one thing that I will give her is that she is very tough and she has shown that plenty with some of the fights she has been involved in. In her 4 losses, she has been KO’d 3 times. The decorated striker can hold her own if you decide to stand and strike with her, but there is only so far toughness will take you when you just don’t have the physical ability to back it all up. Macy on the other hand is 5-0 and we really don’t know what she is just yet. She looks extremely impressive, but she also hasn’t fought anyone yet, so it would be unrealistic and irresponsible to try to lay a bead on her. She has a lot of talent. She is long and has a very well-rounded balance of submissions and KO’s. At the end of the day, however, she has never really been tested by anyone of name value. Lansberg is the toughest competition she has faced to this point but what does that really say about Macy? Look, you can’t fault her for the matchmaking, but just know that if she wins this fight, things will not get easier, and that is where you will really see who and what she is. Right now I think she has enough in the tank to just beat up Landsberg enough to win this fight. Landsberg likes to get in close and Macy will enjoy throwing those nasty knees in the clinch to back Landsberg off. If Landsberg gets a few warning shots in close then she may abandon what she is good at and that will allow Macy to peg her at range. This is really going to come down to who gets what they want in the clinch. I think Macy takes some clean elbows in there but in the end she is going to end the exchanges on the break and get the best of them. Landsberg will have the crowd behind her but I really dont think that helps her here.
The Pick: Chiasson
Diakiese 8500 vs Vannata 7700
Diakese is one of those fighters who has all the dynamic athletic ability in the world and tools that anyone would love to mold. He is fast, sharp, creative and will attempt things with his athletic ability that others can’t. With a 13-3 record, he’s lost three of his last four. The thing that makes it a little less harsh is the quality of opposition. Nasrat Haqprast, Dan Hooker, and Drakkar Klose. Nothing to be ashamed of there. However, he is still losing these fights and it just shows me that something isnt clicking with him. You can have all the ability in the world, but if you dont have the IQ to use it, you have a problem. In his last fight against Joe Duffy, he looked impressive, but at the end of the day, it was Joe Duffy. This is not really a matchup thing with him because the fighters in his 3 losses have very different strong suits. This seems to me like an adjustment issue. However, this is the fight that will seem very familiar to him. Groovy Lando Vanata earned his name for the same reason that makes Diakese so impressive. He is extremely dynamic and very risky in his approaches. With a record of 10-3, Lando has seen better days in his career. Even though he finally got on the right side with a win in his last fight, the 4 fights before that ended as follows: Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss. This poor guy couldnt get out of his own way, and didn’t get any favors with the tough opposition he faced. Both men can play off each other and give us a very dynamic and fun fight, but what concerns me is that both men don’t have the greatest cage IQ – it shows if you really dig into their film. I am expecting a very good fight here but I think Diakese just does a little more. Vanata will let you run with the fight and he will just roll with whatever scenerio you put him in. Sometimes that is a really good thing, but it can also be a terrible thing because if you look at Landos recent record, he’s had 2 draws in 3 fights. That shows me that he fights either up or down to the level of his dance partner. He never really just pushes through that wall and leaves no doubt in the judges’ eyes. He fights to get by most of the time and that’s not someone I like to pick in a fight. Both men looked good last time out but I think Diakese is turning a little bit of a corner and I think the speed along with the ability to get to spots quicker may give him the edge here in the judges’ eyes. I am not looking for a finish here but I am looking for a fun and close fight where Diakese pulls it out.
The Pick: Mark Diakese
Shore 8900 vs Hernandez 7300
The undefeated Jack Shore sits at 11-0 with some hype behind him in his UFC debut. With 6 Subs and 4 KOs, he likes to finish fights no matter where it goes. He is well-rounded and does his best work when he drags you to the ground and uses his big frame to work from there. He is patient but not patient to a fault, which is something I like. He knows what he wants, and although raw and this is his debut, it seems that all of his rhymes have reasons behind them and that to me is very important. He will be taking on Hernandez who sits at 9-3. He took one of those L’s against Marlon Vera in his last fight by way of 2nd round submission. He does have experience fighting in LFA, Bellator, and obviously his last fight in the UFC, but his style is a bit unchained and reckless at times. He does have 6 decision wins which shows me that he is fine going to the cards and in his 3 losses he has been submitted 2 times. His unchained style can work quite well against certain matchups, but in a fight where Shore is very big for the division and can catch you in a wild spot to drag you into the sandbox, I feel like it is just a matter of time before that is exactly what happens. I can see Hernendez doing fine and possibly quite well on the feet, but it’s when this goes ground that I think he gets hurt. I see Shore testing the chops of Hernandez early and then realizing that his greatest path is to use his advantages on the ground. I believe he’ll do that when the time is right and Hernandez gives him the window to do so.
The Pick: Shore
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DRAFTKINGS
- Hermanson 9200
I still don’t see where this fight makes sense. Cannonier hasn’t earned his spots here and even thoough he is dangerous to a point, I just really don’t see Hermansson losing this fight. He is expensive, but you are getting 5 rounds. If he wins, he should surely cover. I will have some.
- Cannonier 7000
I am just not high on him. I have no idea why. I just can’t get behind this guy. Outside of his power, I really don’t understand why he is here. Maybe he will prove me wrong, but I am just having a hard time believing in him right now.
- Madsen 9500
This guy will roll, but will he finish? The price tag is super tough to swallow and I think he will be owned pretty highly. So the way I am playing this is simple. I am going to have some plugs on him because he is safe and in a cash game it makes total sense. However, in GPPs, I will use him but I will temper my size a bit. You want some thoough, so make sure you do so.
- Belluardo 6700
Ill pass here.
- Nelson 7900/Burns 8300
I hate this fight and Im taking Nelson but this fight is really a coin flip on all levels. I will agree that Burns has better finishing upside but this one really can go either way. This is a fight that if you do play with it, you need to go both ways. The pricing is not too far off that you can’t. I will have a slightly larger lean on Gunnar because it does open some space but I will not fade Burns in any form. So please play this one smart.
- Cutelaba 7800
There is clear value here. I am picking Rountree, but if Ion wins this fight, it will be early so at 7800 the value is there in a big way. I will have some.
- Rountree 8400
I’m picking Rountree here, but I can’t be sure that he’s totally changed in a short period of time after just one performance. I am getting shares of him but I will say that he will need to be patient before he starts storming Ion’s castle or he’ll find himself flattened early.
- Oleksiejczuk 9100
I honestly don’t like his price here. I think OSP has seen much better days but 9100 is a bit high for me. I think I will avoid this one.
- OSP 7100
It’s tough to look at 7100 and not take a small swing. I am not expecting him to win this fight but I have seen him do some crazier things in the past. Chances are he is going to get beaten here but, at 7100, if you have some wildcard lineups in large field GPPS, its not the worst play in the world. I wouldnt have him in your mains, though.
- Dalby 7400
I can see people really getting onboard here and I get it, but I think I am going to sit back and hope it blows up. I think Cowboy wins this fight but it’ll be tough to finish off Dalby. With that said, I am still going to sit back on this one and hope for the best.
- Cowboy Oliveira 8800
8800 is expensive in a fight I think goes the distance. I am tempted to take a phantom plug here to cross out the field a bit, but outside of a small plug, he is too expensive here.
- Amedovski 8200/Phillips 8000
Someone COULD be getting KO’d here so, yes, I am telling you to play this both ways with a heavier lean on Amedovski.
- Di Chirico 7600
I don’t see him being able to tie down Muradov’s style here. I am off.
- Muradov 8600
I am not crazy about his price, but this could be a sneaky play that people might avoid. At low-ish ownership, I am interested.
- Bahadurzada 7200
He does have the power to finish fights but Naurdiev has something to prove after his last showing.
- Naurdiev 9000
He is going to look to right the ship here but the finish is going to be a tall order against a durable fighter. I’m interested to a point but not interested enough.
- Davis 8700
I like Davis here even though it’s a dangerous matchup for him. I just think he’s the cleaner striker and should be able to avoid the kicking game of Chikadze if he learns to keep his chin tucked.
- Chikadze 7500
Any striker has a shot against Davis because he really puts his chin on a shelf. If you have the ability to keep up with him then you have a chance. I just don’t see Chikadze having enough to keep up for the duration here. I’m off.
- Chiasson 9400
She’s expensive but she should really get this done and put in some work in the process. I know she is raw but I’m willing to take a few shots on her here in a fight that Landsberg is going to give her the fight that she wants. Landsberg is tough but Chiasson can finish her here.
- Lansberg 6800
You can’t take away from her toughness but this just isn’t going to be her night. Off.
- Diakiese 8500
Super scary tag here for a fighter that is so up and down. Against a guy that has a very similar style. I like him winning this fight but the price tag does scare me a little. I can see people jumping the other way here but this is a fight that I wouldn’t feel confident in either way. This can be boring or it can be a dynamic field day. Some shares here isn’t out of bounds considering the rate they have the potential to reach but I’m not going crazy. I would be much more comfortable if the numbers were a little closer. I won’t be fading him fully here but I will be treading lightly.
- Vannata 7700
Never count out Groovy. I just don’t think he’s in a good spot here with a guy who can match his abilities on a higher level. This seems like a spot where people will take their swings on Groovy. There isn’t much value on this card and he is a very live dog. With that said, I am going to be underexposed to him.
- Shore 8900
He is expensive and he is the first fighter of the night but I can see him rolling here. I am intrigued and I will have some light ownership here.
- Hernandez 7300
He is going to make a mistake somewhere and Shore should take advantage of that spot. I see this as being a fade for me.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT PRIZE PICKS
1.6 to win 1
1.45 to win 1
1 units to win 1