MadLab’s UFC Fight Island 2 Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying.
I had an issue with my laptop, and there will be no Labology for this card. I apologize. Apparently, I received the blue ring of death and my hard drive went due to an update that was installed yesterday and resetting up my office with some new monitors and stuff. I really apologize, but I literally had to finish this article typing from my cell phone in Google Docs.
This article is very watered down because I had one day to turn it around and do all the film study. But it’s not a card that is really worth it anyway after deep diving.
Total transparency here guys. Not a good card for betting or DraftKings. It’s just not. I’m expecting this card to be all over the place, and quite honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked at much here. Personally, I will be playing lighter than I thought and I will also be betting lighter than I thought. So please play responsibly.
Vegas info will be up either late tonight or in the am.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT CARD
Deiveson Figueiredo DK $9000 / FD $22 vs. Joseph Benavidez DK $7200 / FD $17 – TITLE FIGHT
This is a rematch that deserves to happen and many disagree. This is unreal to me, considering Figs came in overweight and was quite comfortable before, during and after weigh-ins. Holding a size and strength already against JoeB, I think it’s fair to say the playing ground was not even from jump street. That and given JoeB being a staple in the division and coming up slightly short against some of the biggest names in the division. Losing by hairs in his approaches to the title has been the story of his career and Figs missing weight by over 2 pounds is something that is out of his control and it has to be ran back. However, the takes of that fight for me became glaring in spots and not so glaring in others. JoeB is the faster fighter with much better footwork and his grappling credentials are better. He was getting in and out of the pocket very nicely in the beginning of that fight. Then he was stung by a shot and it caused him to hesitate. After that, he had a grappling exchange with Figs where he was almost Arm Barred and that really sent him into an emotional tailspin. He began to load up on his punches like that was his only option. He was doing very well when he was in and out, but for some reason he let his head get the best of him and he became desperate very quickly. His striking became very sloppy and he was reaching, overextending and totally leading with his head. Proof of that was the head butt that was really his fault. He just seems like he became desperate a little early in the fight. Figs made him stray from the game plan and it obviously worked like a charm. So what were the real takeaways here? JoeB has the speed advantage, the better technical movement when it comes to creating angles and pulling Figs into him. Figs holds the clear size, strength and power advantage. He seems like he will walk through 3 of JoeB’s shots to line him up for 1. I like JoeB and no one wants to see him win this fight more than I do, but this is a tough matchup for JoeB here. It really is going to be predicated on if he can keep a cool head and keep things flowing the way he needs them to flow. He needs to remember it is not a race. If he gets rocked, he doesn’t have to get it back right then and there. Stick to what works and that is speed. If you get clipped, reset and approach again. Getting clipped and then trying to even the playing field is just playing with fire against a guy who is clearly stronger than you. So points. Look to score. Minute by minute just win the volume game and stay as clean as you can while doing it. JoeB has the chops to win this fight but you have to wonder if being KO’d is going to make him come out a little too hot, letting his head takeover against what really needs to be done. It’s really hard to pick against Figs here after he made weight easily and looked good on the scales doing so. I see a clear path for JoeB here and I would not be shocked at all if you told me that he won. However, 25 minutes is a long time for figs to find his mark and as shown previously, it only takes one for him to change the complexion of the fight.
The Pick: Figs
Kelvin Gastelum DK $8200 / FD $17 vs. Jack Hermansson DK $8000 / FD $16
This is a really good fight and very creative matchmaking here. Gastelum is one of those fighters that really had to get a good kick in the ass early on. He was like the kid in school that had all the potential in the world, knew it, but didn’t really put forth all the effort to see where it goes. Early on Kelvin would miss weight and just wasn’t dialed in like he should have been and quite honestly that is OK. People need to remember at the end of the day, some of these guys are still very young. So maturity will set in a little later than others. Now at 28 years of age Kelvin seems to be taking things more seriously and even tho he has had a tough go on paper, the kid has fought killers. 2-3 in his last 5, Kelvin beat Bisping and Souza. Then lost to Weidman, Izzy and Darren Till. All absolute studs. Quite honestly, in his last 2 losses, he lost a split decision to Till – which was very close – and a very hard-fought decision loss to Izzy. So is he getting beat? Yes, but I would rather have a fighter that is getting beat by top-flight competition closely than a guy who is starching people outside of the top 10. Kelvin is always coming in a bit smaller in his fights, so it really is no surprise to him. The southpaw is extremely powerful on the feet and really will be patient until he feels that he can line something up. With a 15-5 Record, Kelvin has shown that he is not a 1 trick pony with a very balanced finishing rate of 6 KOS and 4 Subs. Holding a BJJ Black Belt under Eddie Bravo’s 10th Planet System, he is well equipped to take it there if need be. With that said, Kelvin can be taken down and for some reason, that seems to be the one hole in his game that is still clear. If you really want to get him there you can but finishing him is an entirely different ball of wax. Kelvin has a tremendous chin and has only been submitted one time in his career. He will need to take that durability with him against surging Swedish fighter, Jack Hermansson. Hermansson was always a tough fighter, but it was just recently that he really made a name for himself. After his loss to Thiago Santos, he went on a 4 fight tear finishing everyone in his path but Souza. The fighter was primed for some big spots very soon on the horizon and it all came to a crashing halt when he was completely flatlined by Jared Cannonier in the 2nd round. With a 20-5 record, The Joker has 11 KOs and 5 Submissions. In his 5 losses, he has been KO’d 2 times and submitted 2 times as well. He will be coming in with a 5-inch reach advantage here and a solid wrestling game that he is very very confident in. Against Souza who is an extremely high-level black belt in BJJ, he tossed all that to the wind and grounded Souza 3 times. With an average of just over 2 takedowns per affair, Hermansson will look to go to the ground when it’s possible or he sees the path to do so. This is an issue for me with Kelvin in all of his fights and that is why I picked Weidman over him. With that said, you need to think that he has really dialed in on that issue at least a little bit and progressed in some capacity. However, drilling it and doing it live is 2 different things. I feel like if this was 5 rounds it would scare me much more for Kelvin due to that wrestling of Hermansson later in the fight. The reach advantage would be more of an issue for me if it wasn’t a regular occurrence for Kelvin but this is a kid that went to war with Izzy and gave up 9 inches. He was still able to get inside on a very tricky and fast fighter. If he was able to find his spots against guys like Izzy and Till then I am confident he will find ways to hit his target. It will all be predicated on if he can keep this standing. If he does, I really like his chances.
The Pick: Gastelum
Marc Diakiese DK $8500 / FD $27 vs. Rafael Fiziev DK $7700 / FD $22
When you talk about very athletic fighters, it’s really hard not throwing MD into the mix. Long frame, fast, dynamic and very hard to figure out when he really starts getting into his groove. With a 14-3 record, I feel like MD really paused on his potential for a bit and just started flat-lining, which I was surprised about. Losing 3 in a row to very good competition, you start to normally ask yourself if maybe this guy was overachieving a bit. Then, just like that, he bounces back with 2 big wins against Joe Duffy and Lando Vannata. In his 14 wins, he has 6 by way of KO and 1 by sub, so it’s obvious that his stand up is where he can put the breaks on you but it doesn’t really tell the tale of him. He averages over 2 takedowns a fight and will use that when he sees it fit to do so. Diakiese seems like he is maturing a bit and this fight would be the perfect opportunity for him to really showcase how he can tie it all together and show a small sample size of it all instead of a big sample of one thing. He will take on Rafael Fiziev, who is a polished striker with some impressive finishes. With that said, he really is going to come in as the slower more plodding move forward fighter in this one and historically if you put Diakiese on his back foot, that is a very uncomfortable spot for him. The issue is RF’s speed. It’s just not there. He will walk you down, very flat-footed and just look to score big and I am not sure that is the type of stalking that will ultimately stall MD’s game. If you are not mirroring him and really cutting off the cage then MD will slide out and keep moving on his way and if he does start having success trapping him in spots, I think the athletic ability of MD will allow him to find a good hip entry to put an end to that at least momentarily to allow him to reset and start the process over again. The UFC has really not done MD many favors with his matchups but this is one that I think he should win if he plays his cards right.
The Pick: Diakiese
Ariane Lipski DK $8300 / FD $23 vs. Luana Carolina DK $7900 / FD $21
Lipski came into the UFC with a ton of steam behind her. Labeled as the Violence Queen, Lipski entered the UFC umbrella on a 9 fight tear with 7 of the 9 by way of finish. Then it seemed that she took a step back and didn’t really look like the same fighter that we saw on tape. Strength of schedule? Sure. Maybe the bright lights? Sure again. However, she fought a dog in Calderwood and dropped her 1st loss in 10 fights. She then came back and dropped another fight to newcomer Molly McCann and it seemed as if her confidence was just shattered at this point. When you look back at the 2 fights she had, they were both women that can really make you test your medal mentally. They both will take you into a dirty dirty place if you don’t clean them up. So I kept that noted in my mind about Lipski. She is very tough but if you bring her into that dark place you can break her. In her 3rd try in the UFC, she beat Isabella de Padua which is a win but still shows me nothing. Lipski looks great when the fight is going her way. Pushes forward, good changeups with her striking, and when she level changes and gets you to the ground, she has a very good ground and pound. However, if you resist and don’t allow her to bully you around the cage, the fight can be yours for the taking. With that said, you need someone that has the ability to do it and I am not sure Carolina is the one. Carolina is very composed and loose in there which I do like, but she really has some sloppy striking when she pressures forward. The striking patterns are all good ideas with the way she ties it all together with punches, kicks and knees but fundamentally it just isn’t executed properly. She literally will charge forward in spots, close her eyes and just start throwing strikes. Although that may back some fighters off, I think Lipski is sharp enough to take advantage of that. Nothing with Lipski will surprise me anymore, to be honest, but I think this is a fight that she should really tie a 2 fight in streak together with. Sit tight, let Carolina engage, and then come underneath, and will get in and back out selling her that false hope while catching her on the way out or change levels and start securing top control. If she can do this successfully, I think she wins this fight. I’ll ride with the Violence Queen in this one.
The Pick: Lipski
Alexandre Pantoja DK $8800 / FD $27 vs. Askar Askarov DK $7400 / FD $20
This fight should be priced a little closer in my opinion but I can see why Pantoja is the favorite here and it’s rightfully deserved. You can really look at this fight in so many different ways and the paths to victory for both guys is really fruitful. However, when you really look at the nuts and bolts of this fight what do they both do really well? Askarov is a very top-heavy wrestler with extremely heavy hips and when he does get on top of you, getting your hips loose is not going to be easy. He really understands weight distribution and how to use his weight to keep your hips pinned while advancing position. Against Tim Elliott, he also showed a very good ability to land with power walking backward on a backpedal with accuracy and that is something that I really was impressed with because landing on your bike is one thing but landing with power is different and he lands with power. However, the one hole I do see in his game is that he does not like to be crowded. You can make him very uncomfortable if you chip at his legs and just walk him down. Taking away that space will really take away his ability to catch you at the end of his punches. So that is something that Pantoja should be looking into coming into this fight. Picking what Pantoja does well is hard because honestly, he is pretty good everywhere. He understands distance, he will sit in the pocket with you and he will also take it to the mat at a very high level if he needs to. With a 22-4 record, he has a perfect balance of 8 subs and 8 KOs. They should indicate a slight sample size of just how well rounded Pantoja is against very good competition as well. Pantoja is glossed over by many and once again I think it’s due to the fact that he isn’t really a pop out personality. He flies under the radar, wins and vanishes. This is a very interesting matchup but I think Pantoja walks Askarov down, changing it up and really getting Askarov firing more to keep Pantoja at bay then to pour offense on outside of a few spots. Askarov will have his opportunities to do so because Pantoja is hittable, but in the end, Pantoja will be the one advancing the position and mixing it up enough to lose Askarov in his patterns. I like Pantoja here until Askarov shows me a bit more.
The Pick: Pantoja
Roman Dolidze DK $8900 / FD $17 vs. Khadis Ibragimov DK $7300 / FD $14
Such a hard fight to call here because I honestly don’t like either of these guys. Both men have a very similar grade all the way around. The striking of both men seems pedestrian and when you charge forward and just start flailing punches in hopes that something connects is not the way to fight nor is it the smart way. Calculation, making reads, creating angles and countering are all ways that high-level strikers do things. Neither of these guys has shown the ability to create unless they are just pushing forward and swinging for openings recklessly. Nothing tied together and nothing really set up or calculated. Dolidze does have some good ideas on the ground and he will look for kneebars and heal hooks which makes him a little intriguing because you can see that he at least understands how to chain things on the ground. However, at 6-0 with 3 subs and 3 KOS, he still hasn’t fought anyone that would really give you any sort of measuring stick onto how legitimate that record and those stats are. I wouldn’t call these guys bad, but I would and could tell you that they most likely won’t be here very long. When you have 2 guys at this level with so many question marks, it’s really hard to understand why the prices are so overly inflated here. I don’t think that there is clear and concise reasoning behind it, and given Ibragimov being the one with more time under the UFC umbrella fighting more elite-level competition, I am going to give him the nod here. It’s not him being good, more of Dolidze just not being that good. I’ll take a swing in the dog here.
The Pick: Ibragimov
Grant Dawson DK $9200 / FD $19 vs. Nad Narimani DK $7000 / FD $12
Grant Dawson has a lot of hype behind him and he earned it to a point. A very good wrestler with hood submissions, but I’m not sure the hype behind him is warranted just yet. He seems to be very very pedestrian on the feet, but he has not really had to leave the wrestling well all that much. However, when he does, he seems pretty reckless on the feet. With a 15-1 record, he has 11 by submission and he makes it pretty clear early where he wants to take it. However, he is taking on a guy that will really hold the striking advantage here and also has a wrestling game that will possibly be able to neutralize Dawson’s strengths, which is wrestling. With that said, if Narimani isn’t getting this into motion early, then Dawson can easily control that part of the fight because Narimani really isn’t a fighter that likes to fight off the defense. Things need to be going forward for him. That’s why it’s so important for him to dictate terms. However, I think this fight is really much closer than people are slating it to be so I am going to give Narimani the nod here on a card that is starving for some dogs.
The Pick: Narimani
Joe Duffy DK $9300 / FD $20 vs. Joel Alvarez DK $6900 / FD $11
If you look at Joel Alverez on paper, he looks like a submission machine, but what you always need to remember is strength of schedule. With a record of 16-2 and 14 wins by way of submission, he hasn’t really fought many people. In his debuting fight, he lost to Damir Ismagulov by decision and really didn’t look all like his record presented. After that, he bounced back in a big way with a KO in the 2nd round against Belluardo. In his debut fight in the UFC, he dropped a decision loss to Damir Ismagulov and really didn’t look too much like his record would indicate. Then he bounced back in a big way with a KO victory against Belluardo, but still out of character for him to finish in that manner. So there is still a heavy jury out on this kid but what I can tell you is that he is fighting a very savvy vet in Joe Duffy. Most know him as the guy that handed Conor his first “L” in MMA and that stands to be true, but coming into the UFC he had boatloads of steam behind him and it just never translated that way for joe. Extremely sharp hands and good grappling, Joe has all the tools to be a very good fighter, but for some reason, he peaked in a sense and never pushed that ceiling to the potential. With a record of 16-4, I think it’s safe to say that Duffy faced the far better competition and brings an edge in many facets of this fight to win. In his 16 wins, Duffy has 10 by Sub and will likely have no caution in grappling with Alvarez. Coming off a 2 fight losing streak, it’s very important for Duffy to get this win and keep himself on the board. This is honestly his fight to win or lose. I think he is cleaner everywhere and gets this one done breaking the 2 fight losing streak.
The Pick: Duffy
Montel Jackson DK $9100 / FD $19 vs. Brett Johns DK $7100 / FD $12
Good fight between two very good wrestlers. Johns is your prototypical high paced on your hips wrestler that will grind you for as long as you allow him to succeed. However, you saw in 2 fights that the opposition has some wrestling or grappling chops they were able to really give him a rough go. Aljo and Munhoz. I know what you’re saying, “Lab, they are two guys in the division”. Yes, you are correct but they are still high pedigree grapplers showing a clear formula. Jackson is still a huge question mark and I’m not saying if he’s good or bad. I’m saying to see how good he really is and can be. I don’t think we have begun to scrape the surface with him yet. In his debut fight, I was really excited for this kid. I was screaming his name from mountain tops in how good his wrestling game actually was, and it looked like he never left the hotel room. I mean SIMON took it to him from pillar to post and I was literally so confused. He then must have shaken off the nerves because he has now rallied together 3 straight wins and is showing some footing. With that said he still seems sluggish at times in the cage. Like he just gives what he needs to win and you sit and wonder how much more this guy actually has. With a 9-1 record Jackson will look to put a double-digit in the win column making it 4 in a row and putting himself in the mix of the division. I want to see this fight because Johns is going to present that same type of pressure that Simon pressed. Not in the same manner but just heavy pressure. I want to see how he learned from it and what adjustments he made since then. I think it’s enough to win this fight.
The Pick: Jackson
Amir Albazi DK $8600 / FD $17 vs. Malcolm Gordon DK $7600 / FD $14
I don’t think this price is warranted. Both of these guys are willing to trade whenever you invite them to do so. Gordon comes in with a savvy ground game with a 12-3 record. With 6 subs and 4 KOs. So he looks to finish which is always a good thing. However, in all 3 of his losses, he has been KOd. I have seen him get a little light legged in his fights in which I start to question his chin a bit. He takes on Albazi who is 12-1 and like Gordon has a high finishing rate as well. 7 submissions and 4 KOs. In his 1 loss, he has never been finished. Albazi showed me a little more on tap. Although Gordon has the chops to be considered a threat, he doesn’t seem polished enough to me to really lead the parade against Albazi. I think if anyone gets clipped on the feet it will be Gordon and even tho he does have extremely good grappling, Albazi is not far behind and whoever gets top control first can really dictate the terms of the rest of the round or maybe even the fight. This fight honestly sums up this entire card. It’s such a coin flip and not one I’m willing to really go near with my money, but gun to head, I have to side with Albazi here. I think he is going to be the one pushing the pace and I’m the eyes of the judges, that can be the make or break signal when chalking in that round from one fighter to another. Being on Yas Island helps a bit as well for Albazi, but ultimately I think he gets what he actually wants before Gordon does.
The Pick: Albazi
Arman Tsarukyan DK $8700 / FD $18 vs. Davi Ramos DK $7500 / FD $13
Both of these gentlemen have a similar opponent in common in their last fight and that is Islam Mackachev. Both men also have something else in common. They both lost to him by decision. However, if you really watch both fights, Ramos really wasn’t impressive at all in that fight. The 3rd degree black belt in BJJ really had zero desperation to get it to the ground. It seemed as if he was just content with standing and taking whatever Makachev was willing to serve out with some slight rebel in return. Ramos is still a vulture on the ground with 10 wins and 7 by way of submission. In his 3 losses, he has never been finished, but Ramos just tends to have a block in his throttle that really has been holding back his potential a bit. He doesn’t fight with that surge of desperation unless it’s from an opportunistic standpoint. When Tsa fought Makachev he really took it to him and wasn’t accepting the hype behind Islam. He wasn’t accepting the position and he had trust in his skill to match up with Macachev and matchup he did. He put Makachev in some tough spots, was able to reverse positions and he just made things very hard for Makachev to gain any ground outside of slight advantages. He impressed me very much in that fight. From his striking down to his ability to hold his own in grappling exchanges with Islam. I would highly suggest he doesn’t toil with Ramos on the ground unless it’s later when Ramos tends to lose steam and he can really secure some top control with Ramos necked up against the cage where his hips have very little space to get loose. The pressure game should be advantage Tsa and I believe he does enough to just outwork Ramos here most likely by decision.
The Pick: Tsarukyan
Serghei Spivak DK $8400 / FD $16 vs. Carlos Felipe DK $7800 / FD $15
Very Low-Level MMA Here. Throw their records out the window. These guys literally are not good enough to spend a ton of time on, and they are heavyweights, which means there are paths for both of them to get finished here. From what I have seen, Felipe is the better striker and his hands actually move decently for a big man. However, he is a big boy carrying a lot of weight which causes you to wonder how well he will carry his power over into the later rounds. Obviously, we know that laying a body on someone and making them carry your weight will tire you out especially at heavyweight. That is really what Spivak does. Even tho he is a plodding fighter, he still looks to move forward to get inside given his background. So even if he is not successful on the inside, you are still making Felipe carry your weight and at 240 lbs, you can really make it an uncomfortable spot. I am not of the mind that this is going to be a very good fight at all. It’s going to be sloppy and it may even require a few laughs but at the end of the day Spivak is the better fighter and I would not say that he is horrible. He’s just not very good and none of these guys have a shot in hell to even crack the top 10, but it doesn’t mean the fight can’t be entertaining. I just don’t see it being as such but I do see Spivak pulling this one out.
The Pick: Spivak
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS
Deiveson Figueiredo – DK $9000 / FD $22
At $9k in a 5 rounder, he did it once and he can do it again. Even if he doesn’t finish JoeB, Joe brings enough pressure for Figs to have to throw volume back. So a win should be able to cover your value.
Joseph Benavidez – DK $7200 / FD $17
Well, it’s obvious that Joe has a chance here and his price is extremely low for the caliber of a fighter he is. I don’t think he is laughable here. You should def have some of Joe here. Never count this stud out.
Kelvin Gastelum – DK $8200 / FD $17
Jack Hermansson – DK $8000 / FD $16
When the price is this close, we play it both ways with a lean on one side heavier. I originally liked Hermansson here, but something kept dragging back to Gastelum here. So I am going heavier with KG.
Marc Diakiese – DK $8500 / FD $27
Good athlete and his price is fair. On a card with so many wild card fights, I’m willing to get some of MD for sure.
Rafael Fiziev – DK $7700 / FD $22
There is def a path here for him to win, but I’m going to take a few stands here and I’m going to try to fade a few spots on such a tough slate. I’m going to start here. Fade.
Ariane Lipski – DK $8300 / FD $23
Many people are shitting on her and rightfully so. She just hasn’t lived up to the hype around her. However, this could be the night where she can prove the masses wrong. She’s in for a tough scrap, but it’s a scrap she can def win and I see her doing so. At her price, if she gets her wheels under her, it could hit the value mark. She’s a risk play but, while many most likely will be on Carolina here, Lipski may get some love from me. But not a fight I’m overly excited about at all.
Luana Carolina – DK $7900 / FD $21
Her value to me is really contingent on what I do with Lipski. If I do have Lipski in a few, I may back up with a few Carolinas here. However, it’s a play more against Lipski than it is actually Carolina if that makes sense. However, I’m really not intrigued at this fight at all.
Alexandre Pantoja – DK $8800 / FD $27
Wish the price was a little better in this spot, but Pantoja will bring it and bring it hard. I see him winning this fight but covering value against such a tough guy like Askarov won’t be easy. With that said, it’s Pantoja, and as underrated as he is, the guy knows how to finish. I’ll have some.
Askar Askarov – DK $7400 / FD $20
Confused a bit here because I know people will be on him, and I almost want to fade him just to get really tricky, but I think that’s foolish. The value is glaring. However, I will be underexposed and take my chances.
Roman Dolidze – DK $8900 / FD $17
I don’t see him worth the value here. I really don‘t. Fade
Khadis Ibragimov – DK $7300 / FD $14
I picked him to win, and even tho there is really not a terrible amount of confidence here, the value is borderline punt so why not. He’s going to keep this fight closer than a $7300 play and has a very good chance to pull off the win.
Nad Narimani – DK $7000 / FD $12
Striking is there. The wrestling is there and the fact that this may be Dawson’s roughest test to date really gets my attention. He really needs to get to Dawson first and stay off his back. If he can manage to use Dawson’s pedestrian stand up against him to get things where he needs them, then that $7k would pay off handsomely.
Grant Dawson – DK $9200 / FD $19
I think people will be high on him, and although he is a submission machine, I think Nad presents a certain issue for him that will cause some drama. I will be underexposed here. But I will be exposed.
Joel Alvarez – DK $6900 / FD $11
Joe Duffy – DK $9300 / FD $20
This is really Duffy’s fight to win or lose. I’m interested.
Brett Johns – DK $7100 / FD $12
So intriguing at his price. You are getting a kid who will literally glue himself to your hips and search high and low to make it a grind with an endless motor. He’s def someone to consider. I just don’t see him winning this fight.
Montel Jackson – DK $9100 / FD $19
We haven’t seen the best of Jackson. I feel like we are just starting to scratch the surface. He is going to be pushed in this fight, and sometimes when you are pushed, it extracts the best out of you. Although Johns is going to take away some activity with his pressure, I think Montell has the answers. Get some.
Amir Albazi – DK $8600 / FD $17
I will have slightly more of him here in a fight I won’t have much exposure to, in general. Given that all of Gordon’s fights have been by finish could be why this price is higher than it should be. With that said, he most likely will be overlooked. In some large field GPP, I will have a few lasers here in the hopes he can connect on a few and hand Gordon his fourth loss by finish.
Malcolm Gordon – DK $7600 / FD $14
I see this fight going to the cards, and I do see it being pretty active. There is some value here because this is honestly anyone’s fight, but the upside for a finish is more towards Albazi, considering all of Gordon’s losses have been by KO. Light exposure because the fight really is close, but my official pick would be Albazi.
Arman Tsarukyan – DK $8700 / FD $18
Too expensive for me here. Ramos has never been finished, and given his grappling credentials, you are not going to be reckless. There is an element of action and also an element of caution when fighting Ramos, and unless he finishes Ramos, that’s a lot of volume to spit out in a decision. I’m off.
Davi Ramos – DK $7500 / FD $13
His upside is really predicated on if he can get the submission, and that’s the only reason he may see some of my lineups. I just don’t see him getting it there. Might be a fight to just sit back and watch from a viewing perspective. I don’t like either of their prices, but Ramos holds more value even tho I picked against him.
Serghei Spivak – DK $8400 / FD $16
Carlos Felipe – DK $7800 / FD $15
Two sloppy heavyweights, you really can’t play one and not the other. It would be foolish. No one holds this huge advantage over one another, and they both make loads of mistakes. However, I will tell you that I will have a heavier lean on Spivak here in the hopes he can keep this in close and take away the striking of Felipe.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT VEGAS
THIS IS NOT A CARD TO BET ON… I LITERALLY FEEL LIKE I AM PUSHING THESE 2 OUT, BUT WE WILL JUST SEE WHAT HAPPENS… HORRIBLE BETTING VALUE EVERYWHERE. THESE ARE MY 2 PLAYS, FEEL FREE TO PLAY OR SIT OUT…
Montel Jackson -215
2.15 to win 1
1.75 to win 1
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