MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Vegas 2 Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT CARD
Jessica Eye DK $8300 / FD $18 vs. Cynthia Calvillo DK $7900 / FD $16
I have a love/hate relationship with Eye. When she was at bantamweight, it just seemed that she couldn’t get out of her own way. She was 1-6 before deciding to jump ship on that weight class. Then she started to look very serviceable at flyweight, stringing together 3 fights in a row which were all by way of decision, including 2 splits. She began to really stress how wrestling was going to be what she leans on more and more going forward. It wasn’t hugely apparent in those 3 fights, but she without a doubt looked much more comfortable at flyweight until….. she was offered a shot to fight Valentina for the strap and had her clock cleaned faster than her climb to the opportunity. Win or Lose, the majority of Eye’s fight lands in the judges’ hands. With only 3 KOs and 1 submission in 15 wins, Eye’s style isn’t the style to put it on you with game-changing power or some extremely tricky ground game. However, she will have 5 rounds to work with here but her finishing someone inside the horn is just something that isn’t very common. In his 7 losses, she isn’t finished quite easily as well. 1 by KO and 1 by submission. The thing you get with Eye is a very basic blueprint. She doesn’t really excel in anything. She really isn’t spectacular at any one thing which makes it very hard for her when you reach that upper class of fighter that tends to take on more shapes. One thing that she “usually” does well is that she works behind her jab and she keeps her chin tucked and her lead shoulder in a tight position all that is great but when you are just stringing things together for the sake of stringing them together then the end game is one that you really can expect more times than not to go to the cards playing the numbers game. She’s not one to get completely taken on her feet but she can be had on the ground despite her talk about “wrestling where it’s at.” Wrestling and grappling are far and away different. Wrestling is about position and control, where grappling is much more about position, control and finishing. Wrestlers also don’t work well from their backs. They are much more comfortable in top control. Eye has been taken down fairly easy in her runs with the UFC, and Calvillo, although not a takedown artist, does go for them because she understands that her ace in her back pocket is her grappling. She seemed to find her grappling groove when she waltzed into the UFC and earned a submission victory in her debut against Amanda cooper and then a follow-up submission against Pearl Gonzalez. Her only loss in the UFC is against extremely tough wrestler and grinder Carla Esparza in which the 2 have some very choice feelings about each other. Esparza was able to edge her out in a fight where Esparza thinks she was getting bullied up to the lead up to it. Despite her loss, Calvillo would test positive for Marijuana metabolites that would sit her out until November the following year. She did not lose a step as she continued her ways with a submission victory over Poliana Botelho. Followed up with a victory against Cortney Casey by way of decision.
In her most recent outing, Calvillo missed weight and fought to a draw in which it seemed people started to look at her a little less. It’s funny how this is such a “What have you done for me lately” sport. When Calvillo was submitting people and showing how elusive she was on the ground, people were singing her praises, but 1 loss, a positive drug test, missed weight, and a draw has seemed to wash that all away in so many peoples eyes. There is no doubt that the girl is talented and there is also no doubt that when she is on she is hard to handle on the ground, but I don’t ever see Calvillo as some world-beater that is going to make any clear cut run at a title. She may scrape the surface at times but I feel like when she fights the Esparza’s of the world she will just come up short the majority of the time. She falls into that Courtney Casey Category. Extremely tough, a tough out, a fringe contender with some runs but it usually ends there. With that said, you can say the same thing about Eye, but on a little lower of a scale. Eye will have a slight reach advantage here and she does ultimately throw crisper and more volume, but all this “wrestling” talk by her may not be the grandest idea with someone like Calvillo that will probably hold a slight disadvantage in striking and would welcome things to hit the sandbox. I don’t think eye shoots so freely here if at all, but Calvillo can also be baited into standing and trading with you so it will be a game of following the proper blueprint. For Eye, she will want to keep this on the feet. Use her jab to keep Calvillo honest and make her second guess her hip entries. Range is going to be a key component for Eye here. I have noticed in Calvillo’s fights that unless she is really controlling the situation with the feet, she tends to become discouraged. I can read it in her face. So Eye is going to want to really frustrate Calvillo and make her take either sloppy desperation shots or bait her pride to want to throw back when she gets hit. As far as Calvillo, the print is quite simple. Use the striking as a way to get in on Eye’s hips. Make her work. It’s not all about the takedowns. It is also about a fighter carrying your weight. Gassing their arms out while they struggle for underhooks and try to escape away from the cage. Making the arms heavy takes away pop and speed and Eye doesn’t possess that much as it is so this would allow Calvillo to build a little more confidence later when taking a shot if she is unsuccessful in the beginning. I think This fight might be a scary judging fight if it goes to the cards. I can see this being judged by the more damage on the feet by Eye and the takedowns and grappling of Calvillo if she can get it there. I say that because Calvillo is a tricky cat when it comes to what she is going to do. Given Eye’s ability to be taken down if you really want it, You would think that Calvillo is going to want to ground this sooner than later and if she starts getting popped on the feet then she should resort to it soon after. But pride takes over in fighters sometimes and that can be to their detriment. With that said, Calvillo is the better fighter here with that one shining tool when she wants and decides to use it.
The Pick: Calvillo
Karl Roberson DK $7400 / FD $12 vs. Marvin Vettori DK $8800 / FD $19
Well, there is some bad blood here. These guys almost went at it in a hotel lobby after Roberson pulled out of their initial engagement, but here we are yet again. The bad blood will now have a chance to boil over. Have you ever seen 2 fighters that really hold a bit of the same strengths and wondered how to compare them? Well, there are a few ways but the most common way in which I do not believe in is MMA MATH. Many people tend to use MMA math and it’s just not the way to do things. Statistics will help you in some stroke of the equation because it can show a certain level of consistency, but at the end of the day, it isn’t the best measuring stick to go by. You can also look at momentum, training camps, and peep in on their cuts to see how smoothly everything is going. With that said, one of the best ways to recalibrate your thinking is to understand that everyone has holes and if their holes are strengths of the other fighter then you may be able to work with something there. When I look at both of these guys they are extremely close in comparison. Even with their momentum, they are both on a 2 fight win streak. Roberson has a decent skill set and background in kickboxing, but he tends to have a thirst for grappling as well. He has 4 submissions and 2 KOS, and in his only 2 losses, he has been submitted himself. Roberson pushes a decent pace but he does make mistakes and can be backed up if you make it your business to do so. Vettori not only has the ability to do this but he is coming into this fight with a clear chip on his shoulder. He fights with a chip on his shoulder, to begin with, but this one is a little more personal. I would also add that if you really look at the overall big picture, Vettori is a little better everywhere. He went the full time with Adesanya and lost a very close split decision, which he gave an exceptional showing of himself. Vettori, in my eyes, is very underrated. He presses a good pace, he is durable, and he has very solid wrestling when the opportunity presents itself. I think Roberson shows a good portrait of himself early. I think his athletic ability and the caution on Vettori’s side early on, but in the end, Vettori will be the one to start pushing the pace pocketing rounds and gaining the edge in the eyes of the judges if it goes that far.
The Pick: Vettori
Merab Dvalishvili DK $9200 / FD $20 vs. Gustavo Lopez DK $6800 / FD $10 (Borg Out)
This is a very interesting style clash here. On one side you have one of the hardest pushing pressure fighters in the game with Dvalishvili. He sets the bar extremely high when it comes to extremely high motor wrestling. His entire game plan is around smothering your hips and taking you down immediately. If you have the chops to stand back up, then he will soon after magnate onto your hips, rinse and repeating you all over again. There aren’t many people that I have seen that can keep up with this type of motoring pace and if you can then you are most likely going to have a very tough time getting set and getting your plan on track. He doesn’t allow you to breath and he doesn’t allow you to really get into any sort of a tempo especially if you are a striker. Merab is one of those fighters that you either have to neutralize, catch or flat out, out-work. The only one that seems hard to believe is outwork. Ray Borg is a guy that can actually do all 3 in the right setting. He can somewhat neutralize his wrestling with his slick transitions on the ground, he can catch him if Merab gets sloppy on the ground and he can’t outwork him but he can lessen the work rate of Merab for the mere fact he can threaten Merab with submissions from the ground and Merab has been caught slipping in a fight against Ricky SIMON where he was saved by time but refused to tap. The issue with Borg is being able to have the breathing room to get his hips loose and or mount some offense on his own. Borg is a tricky fighter, to say the least, but when you have a very top-heavy wrestler who continues to use your defense to create offense it never is easy. I think Borg has a transitional grappling chance here, but I haven’t seen any signs of validation on why Borg would be a firm pick here. Merab puts too much pressure on Borg, frustrating him and making him fight much more defensively than offensively.
Revised——He is now fighting Lopez.
In short……Merab all day….
The Pick: Dvalishvili
Andre Fili DK $8600 / FD $21 vs. Charles Jourdain DK $7600 / FD $13
Jourdain is one of those guys that really is still very raw. At the young age of 24, he still has a lot to go but there is something about him that I do see potential. The issue I do have with him is he has that young man’s braze about him. He is very willing to jump into the fire and just lead offensively with caution to the wind on defense. There comes a time when you need to change those things or become a part of who you are. It is very hard to change that in someone. You can’t just pull habits out of your instincts, so it’s very important now for his camp and him to remold certain things about his game. Against Desmond Green, he was taken down 4 times and he seems to be very comfortable on his back. With that said, no matter what, if you are on your back you are in a negative position. You need to create that offense instead of having it and losing it. He had a lot of trouble with his takedown defense against green and it cost him the fight. Against Doo-ho Choi, it was impressive, but at the end of the day, Choi is a name and he is also a tough punching bag. Choi is a guy now in his career that he can be used for highlight reels if you really have his number. Jourdain’s true comfortability came out in that fight. He likes to push forward and throw. He is a switch fighter and that can really throw people off, However, Fili is far too well seasoned to not know where his paths to victory are. He works behind a good jab, and he really has some good underrated wrestling. Fili has fought some very good stiff competition and his durability also showed its head once again when he fought hard-hitting Yussuf. So if you really look at things in a big painted picture, Jourdain doesn’t have many paths here outside of getting the best of Fili on the feet or hooking up something from his back. Outside of that, it should really be all Fili here. I can see Fili standing with him for a short period of time. Using his jab to set up a good distance to dial in on a good shot of Jourdain’s hips. Depending on how easily he gets him down will really play a huge factor in Fili’s game plan. No matter where this goes from a technical level, Fili checks all the boxes, but Jourdain is dangerous enough to make things interesting and put Fili in spots, but the savvy vet will find ways to get this one done.
The Pick: Fili
Jordan Espinosa DK $8500 / FD $16 vs. Mark De La Rosa DK $7700 / FD $15
I mean the dogs can come from anywhere but there aren’t many that really tickle my toes. Both of these guys bring very similar skill sets and threats. Espinosa is a very good athlete with solid wrestling and a very good and efficient takedown game. However, his Achilles heel when he does lose is his getting submitted. It seems he can get caught in scrambles due to his high motor. Scrambling is not a good idea against someone like Rosa. The Black Belt in BJJ will be looking for that, and Espinosa will need to stay sharp and coherent of this. Espinosa uses his high motor to pressure you and smother you with solid wrestling while he works his way to a submission. That is the proper approach for his style. With that said you can not be sloppy. You need to do it in steps. All your passes, all your advances and all of your positions need to be well thought out and heavy. You don’t want space between you. If you get too loose, De La Rosa will have room to activate his hips and get wiry on the ground looking for something sharp and quick. On a card that is starving for a dog, this may be the best shot on the card to get one. Espinosa’s strength is also his weakness. Running into submissions isn’t an uncommon thing for him. If he gets sloppy, look for De La Rosa to capitalize.
The Pick: De La Rosa
Charles Rosa DK $7800 / FD $14 vs. Kevin Aguilar DK $8400 / FD $18
Rosa is one of those guys that is better than he is slated to be on paper. A very good grappler that has notable submissions to his credit. The thing with Rosa is that he is really looked at as a solid gatekeeper. However, Aguilar isn’t really some rising star. So the angle here is really just a fight. Two mid-tier guys who match up pretty well together. Rosa is a black belt under Ricardo Liborio and a very well-groomed grappler. It was puzzling to see him get completely out grappled in his fight against Bryce Mitchell. That was a little alarming to me, to be honest. Bryce is an amazing slick grappler but you should t be able to do that to a Liborio black belt. Beat him yes, completely destroy him on the ground like that? No. With that said you can’t take away the kid’s credentials. However, in order to play his game, he will need to get it to the floor and Aguilar is a pretty solid wrestler. There is no doubt where the advantages lie here. Rosa has the full advantage on the Mat but needs to get it there and Aguilar has the full advantage on the feet. He also has the better chin. One thing that Aguilar can do is bang, and that’s really not Rosa’s game. Rosa is good on the feet, but if this turns into a firefight, I don’t think his chin would hold up and he would most likely look to take desperation shots. I’m looking for Aguilar to shuck off some shots here and really just keep his hips in space and move forward. If he gets taken down in the sea of the cage, he will need to really have to pop back up or work his way to the cage to give him that leverage to wall walk a bit. He doesn’t want to be getting into a ground pissing match with Rosa. I like Aguilar to keep this on the feet and cause more damage.
The Pick: Aguilar
Julia Avila DK $9300 / FD $19 vs. Gina Mazany DK $6900 / FD $10
Mazany did not have a very good stint in the UFC. It seems that she is the typical fighter that will beat all the regional level cusp girls but when it comes to beating a legitimate contender it’s just not going to happen. Mazany has a decent grappling game at best and will look to really implore that in every fight but at the end of the day you just need more. You can’t have an average level of one aspect and horrible levels of the rest. She is a fighter that can hold her own. That’s how I label her. There are times she will have bright spots but the majority of the time she will have low spots. Avila is obviously only 1 fight in But she shows much more promise than Mazany. The striking is hers to own and if she can keep her hips in space then she can really run away with this one. I see Mazany taking desperation shots here while Avila shucks then off and moves forward picking apart Mazany at range. If it goes to the ground, things can get interesting, but I think Avila is versed enough to stay safe.
The Pick: Avila
Zarrukh Adashev DK $7700 / FD $12 vs. Tyson Nam DK $8000 / FD $15
This fight actually has the ability to be an easier path for both men if they follow suit properly. Nam is a more well-rounded fighter of the 2, but he really can be baited into whatever it is that you want to do. If you grapple then he will join you and if you throw hands, he will also join you. That’s not the way you fight. You need to draw up stylistic game plans for all oppositions in order to succeed in this sport. Adashev is a pure striker and he is a good one at that. He doesn’t have many other options in his pocket. He really just gets dynamic with his striking and that is where he is tricky. You don’t need to worry about level changes or grappling. He is there for one thing to slang and bang. Now when you are fighting someone that is unhinged in his approach your best bet is to either keep him at range or take him down. Nam has the tools to do that but he can’t get caught up in a firefight. At that point, it would be a pretty even chess match but if he takes this down, he can make this lean in his favor much more. You can never tell what these guys are going to do, but if he does decide to take this down then it’s hard not to pick him here. You have to go with the guy that has more options, and that’s Nam.
The Pick: Nam
Hannah Cifers DK $7500 / FD $12 vs. Mariya Agapova DK $8700 / FD $17
This is a fight where Cifers is going to try and really rewrite a big mistake she made against Dern. The matchup on paper is obviously better for her here, but the metrics of her physical attributes are not good at all. She is 5’1 with a 62-inch reach, although, she is a very game opponent. She really just likes to slang and bang, and that goes a long way when you are fighting someone who likes to do that as well, but stand up is not only fought on the inside. If you have a range fighter, then this can be a problem. Agapova is very raw, but she is much longer and rangier. At 5’6 and a 68-inch reach, she can keep Cifers at range if she plays her cards right. Also being a southpaw, it will change the dynamics for a lot of approaches. I’m expecting Cifers to be very game. She always is. She is going to keep moving forward, but the range of the youngster should be able to keep her at bay and out of too much trouble. With that said, the durability of Cifers should keep her in it until the end.
The Pick: Agapova
Anthony Ivy DK $9000 / FD $16 vs. Christian Aguilera DK $7200 / FD $14
Ivy is literally a pure striker and that’s where it starts and that’s where it ends. I have tried to really find reasons to like him and in order to do that, you really need to show me something in every department. Show me anything to work with that shows me that there is potential there or potential to at least learn. The case with Ivy just is not that. He uses his range well and he understands how to keep things where he wants it. However, if you get him to the ground he can be had. With that said, Aguilera is exactly the style that he can match up with. He hits harder and he uses his push forward imposing style to really break your tempo. However, he is very hittable and his grappling is never really a factor unless it is defensively. The speed, better combos and range of IVY Should be enough to pass this test. Lower level guys you need to be careful tho.
The Pick: Ivy
*Griffin vs. Minner (canceled)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS
Jessica Eye – DK $8300 / FD $18
Five round fight with an $8300 price tag is feasible, but she did not look good on the scales so that does take me off this a bit. With that said, this is a fight that if you do play it, you need to take it both ways. I’m not too crazy about anything in this fight, but I am leaning Calvillo slightly so I will have a little more juice on Calvillo.
Cynthia Calvillo – DK $7900 / FD $16
If Eye had a solid weigh-in, I would be a little more hesitant here. However, she did not look good or healthy in weigh-ins. I still believe you need to play both sides if you entertain this fight, but the slight lean is def more weight on Calvillo.
Karl Roberson – DK $7400 / FD $12
This is a great price for anyone with a good chance. He also weighed in heavy, and that can benefit him. History shows that this is always in favor of the fighter if the miss is big enough. They don’t need to struggle and cut as much weight; in turn, they don’t really weaken their system as much. However, Vettori looks like a man on a mission, and although I am picking Vettori here, the price on a swing with Roberson is hard to pass up. I can’t fade him here totally, especially in a fight where he missed weight grossly and all this bad blood.
Marvin Vettori – DK $8800 / FD $19
I don’t like the price, to be honest, but he is going to bring some heat and he is probably going to look to make a statement here. There is upside for a finish, but you are taking a risk here. With that said, I am willing to take a few stabs to see if he comes out with a chip on his shoulder.
Merab Dvalishvili – DK $9200 / FD $20
I mean… I shouldn’t have to tell you that he will be super high owned, but Merab has the best upside on the card.
Gustavo Lopez – DK $6800 / FD $10 (Borg Out)
Andre Fili DK – $8600 / FD $21
I like Fili to win here, but Jourdain is pretty durable. I am looking at him to win by decision here, and that $8600 price tag might just be about the ceiling. Not bad and I will be having some of him, but I see him more as a solid play rather than a slate breaker.
Charles Jourdain – DK $7600 / FD $13
He’s a tough kid, but I don’t see him beating Fili.
Jordan Espinosa – DK $8500 / FD $16
I am not crazy about the price here. Good athlete, can 1000 percent win this fight on his wrestling and athletic ability alone, but him getting caught in submissions is a concern against a High-Level Black Belt in De La Rosa. You need to be careful here.
Mark De La Rosa DK – $7700 / FD $15
Sub $8k, he is worth a swing as a dog for sure. He does have a very slippery ground game on the ground, and on a card that is starving for dogs, he is one who has a very good chance against a guy who is prone to be a good ground player but does make his share of mistakes.
Charles Rosa – DK $7800 / FD $14
His winning is really premised on if he can get this to the ground and start grappling. Aguillar has very good TD defense so it may be hard, and after his recent loss to Mitchell, he may be a bit disheartened. He is going to really come out and try to right the ship, but Aguilar is a tough customer and he doesn’t want to stand and bang with him. He is worth a play in small dosage.
Kevin Aguilar – DK $8400 / FD $18
I like his price tag. Good price for a guy who can bang, is durable and should get the best of Rosa on the feet if it stays there. If he can keep this standing, there is some upside for a finish.
Julia Avila – DK $9300 / FD $19
Pay $100 less for Merab? I think you know the answer. She will be very low owned, and if you want to pivot on a few, that’s fine. But I can’t justify it when Merab has the highest upside on the card.
Gina Mazany – DK $6900 / FD $10
I mean, I feel like I have to fade her just because she is really not good. So, I shall.
Zarrukh Adashev – DK $7700 / FD $12
Tyson Nam – DK $8000 / FD $15
Flighty fight on both ends here. This is all about game plan. I will have more shares of Nam here, but I won’t be fading Adashev if he can keep this upright. However, I am not too sure how much lead I will have on this fight all together but have a heavier lean on Nam for the ones you do use his fight in.
Hannah Cifers – DK $7500 / FD $12
I can totally see Cifers having a valiant effort, and her durability will keep her in it against such a raw fighter. I don’t see her winning, but she isn’t a long shot and I wouldn’t be shocked if she brings out a dog fight in this one.
Mariya Agapova – DK $8700 / FD $17
The only reason I do not see this as a good play is that Cifers is pretty durable. Cifers is most likely going to get outpointed here, but it’s nothing that is going to blow the cap off DK. I would be wary of this one.
Anthony Ivy – DK $9000 / FD $16
This is a little pricey for such a raw kid. He can and should put some good work in, but I can find better value elsewhere… I’m off.
Christian Aguilera – DK $7200 / FD $14
I am off this fight altogether.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT VEGAS
You have a choice. You can use my picks and choose how you want to bet. With that said this is what I am betting. I would play this card lightly.
1 units to win 1.2 Units
1.3 to win 1
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