MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown and Predictions!!!
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UFC FIGHT NIGHT MAIN CARD
This article is watered down because its not worth burying a ton of time into it. Not much value but there are some dog plays that even are picked to lose that are live. They will all be listed below.
Edgar $7200 vs Zombie $9000
A few years back this fight would honestly be a no brainer for me. Edgar had a very relentless style with a very good pressure and gas tank. There wasn’t much about his game not to like. Solid wrestling and striking tied together very well with his ground game. Since then it’s been quite obvious that Edgar has had a fall from grace and should have retired a few fights ago. He actually made it seem that way after he was completely starched by Ortega. Since then he has come back with some impressive performances and some not so impressive performances. However, what I can say, is that Edgar is not going to get any better from here. Age just won’t allow it. He is fighting a guy in Zombie that stands true to his name. The guy just doesn’t go quietly into the night. You literally have to beat him to win. He just keeps coming forward and like a machine, you need to hit his switch in the right spot to turn him off. If you look at this fight in it’s entirety it really just smells trouble for edger. Less than 1 month notice at his age can be a problem. Especially in a 5 round fight. His reach is over shadowed by 4 inches and he is also 5 years older than Zombie. These are all red check marks in his corner. I’m not saying that he can’t win this fight. At the end of the day it’s Frankie, but I don’t think it ends well for him. I have to take zombie here.
The Pick: Zombie
Draft kings: Frankie is live and I won’t be fading him totally at his price but I think if he loses it doesnt make it to the Horn which puts me on Zombie more even at his price point.
Oezdimir $7600 vs Rakic $8600
Good fight. Both these guys hit very hard and have polished striking backgrounds. Oezdimir came in with a ton of hype as he was laying people out with phantom punches one after another. He then came back down to earth and looks to be settling into a realistic pocket of where he is in the division. However, the guy is tough and dangerous, just not as starlet like as he proclaimed to be in his initial run. He will take on Alexander Rakic. This guy came out of no where just disposing of people the same way with devastating striking and size to match. With a 12-1 record he has 9 KOs to his merit and has not lost a fight since his first professional fight in 2011. I think this is a dangerous fight for both men, but I think Rakic is just a little longer and a little more well rounded. I can see this going the full 3 and Rakic just putting out more volume. However, where Volkan is weak is on the ground and if you look at those 3 losses that are tied together, they were by all legit contenders. (Cormier, Smith and Reyes). I don’t see Rakic on that level just yet. He has attributes that will give Volkan trouble. I am having a hard time getting behind Volkan here. Both men have value here, but I don’t see a finish here. So I think I may leave this fight alone for the most part outside of a few small plugs just in case Rakic can finish the job. Small taste on Rakic and even smaller taste on Volkan
The Pick: Rakic
Choi Do Ho $9400 vs Jourdain $6800
Two years off for Jourdain against a guy who has a very push forward game that is really smothering at times. I’m a big believer in cage rust and I think Jourdain will suffer from it in a fight where Do Ho will be able to just throw volume that he will not be able to keep up with. I’m fading Jourdain in this spot and I will be not too afraid of Do Ho even though his price is $9400. He should be able to get this one done inside the horn. I will have my shares of him with some good confidence.
The Pick: Choi Do Ho
Da Yung $7900 vs Rodriguez $8300
This fight is priced fairly well, but at the end of the day Rod is more of a 1 trick pony and Da Yung is a bit more well rounded. I can see why Rod would be the slightly higher priced guy in this spot because he does have the more explosive striking, but Da Yng can threaten him on the feet and on the ground. If anyone is in play here Da Yung is in play. I actually think he has a very good chance to win this fight, but I am not going to feel comfortable about the pick. However, from a DK perspective if you had to pick 1 of the 2, I would rather have Yung. 400 dollars doesn’t seem like much and maybe it isn’t, but that 400 can open enough space for someone that is much more of a lock.
The Pick: Yung
Jung Yung $7700 vs Barriault $8500
This fight is a very tough fight to call and another fight that pricing is a bit off. This is going to be a stand up special and you can expect them to trade back and forth for the majority of this fight. I would not sit here and say that Barriault is the better more technical fighter, but he has more pop and throws with a little more intent behind his strikes. It is a fight I can see being a bit ugly which can honestly go either way. This is a fight that Barriault should really get done. I am just not sure that this is going to be a fight with super value on either end. I think this fight is a fade for me on DK, but Barriault should win.
The Pick: Barriault
Kyung Ho $9200 vs Liu $7000
I see this fight as priced correctly on DK. Kyung Ho is a fighter that really understands what he is good at and adheres to it. He knows his grappling is his ultimate path to victory. In 16 wins he has 11 by way of submission. So the path is simple and we love any fighter that knows where his strengths are. Liu has ok grappling chops as well with 5 submissions, but the gap in ground skills is clear to me here. Kyong Ho Kang should get what he wants here and I have no problem with spending the $9200 here. Liu is a fade for me at $7000.
The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang
Gane $9600 vs Bosser $6600
There is nothing that appeals to me with Bosser. I know he’s $6600 and it’s the heavyweights. I just see no way in hell Bosser wins this fight. He’s a full fade for me. Gane’s price really scares me at $9600. I think people are going to jump all over him, but Bosser isn’t finished easy. So I will have a taste, but not as much as I was expecting before film. Careful here. I wouldn’t be surprised if this goes the distance, but it should be Gane all day.
The Pick: Gane
Seong Wo $9300 vs Maktarian $6900
At $6900 I find Maktarain as an interesting play. The guy isn’t a good fighter, but that price is very tempting to me. I hate the entire camp but it’s not like he’s fighting a world beater here. I just don’t think that this price is fair. I would have seen this fight much closer than this and I would have faded it totally. I think a small plug on Maktarian in a large field GPP is ok. I’m not expecting much from him. Hell I’m not even predicting him to win here, but there is an inside track that he can pull something out of his hat. Worth a bullet.
The Pick: Seong Wo
Hyun ma $7400 vs Morales $8800
Maestro is a fighter that throws with some great heat and was involved in one of the most brutal fights that I have seen in quite some time. As fun as that is, you need to keep an eye out with fighters that enjoy the pocket fights like that. You really can’t be in a fight like that against MPR and expect to walk out with the same durability. He is taking on a much fresher fighter in Morales who has not been in the uncomfortable spots that Hyun Ma has been in. The $7400 is very very tempting, but I am seeing this as a price that can be bait for failure here. I wouldn’t get too intrigued here and quite honestly, I might find myself more intrigued on the higher tag of morales. He has power and he is going to have his spots. I will give Hyun Ma a very small play to back things up, but I am expecting Morales to be a lower owned fighter that may have the ability to shut the lights out before the horn. My prefered play here is def Morales.
The Pick: Morales
Pantoja $9100 vs Shnell $7100
Very good fight, but one that I will not be intrigued too much by the price. Shnell has some really good skill and he has shown the ability to be pretty well rounded, sharp and able to finish fights. The issue with Shnell is that his chin has been out playing what it really is. People forget that at one point in time Shnell was looked at as extremely chinny and after a few flashy wins it seems to be forgotten a bit. Pantoja is tough, durable and can bring heat late in the fight to Shnell causing him to take steps back. The price on Shnell is intriguing due to his speed and skills, but the price directly correlates to his ability to be clipped if he is hit clean. Pantoja is a guy that can expose that and that scares me. I am picking Pantoja here, but Shnell is not a horrible play in a few GPPS for some diversity and value. Be weary here because he can get lit up at any moment. However, Pantoja is a little pricey on the flip side, but he does have upside for a finish. I don’t think Pantoja will be super highly owned so I will have him in large field GPP lineups where he can be a little sneaky. Both men have the upside here, but I can see Pantoja finishing this sometime late.
The Pick: Pantoja
Barcelos $8400 vs Nurmogamedov $7900
Barcelos is extremely diverse and well rounded. He can take the fight anywhere. Even though he is a black belt in BJJ the guy can bang. Keep in mind that he still does have the BJJ in his back pocket. He sets a high pace and he is comfortable anywhere this fight goes. I think the price should be a little closer in my opinion, but Nurmogamedov is without a doubt the better striker in this spot. You would think that being Khabib’s cousin his style would be the opposite, but that is really not the case here. Barcelos can hang with him for a certain amount of time, but eventually he is going to want to test Nurmog’s chops on the ground. If he can, I think he wins this fight. If he can’t then things can get dicey down the stretch when Barcelos tends to fade. I am taking Barcelos and it is a fight I think you want to be involved in. There is going to be a certain pace set here and I think both men are priced well enough to exceed their value in a win. I will have a heavier lean on Barcelos but I just cant Fade Nurmog totally in this spot either.
The Pick: Barcellos
Granger $8900 vs Lemos $7300
This fight is priced off to me. I feel like when fights are priced off like this that it tempts me to step away. I know she brings pace and has a push forward style, but I am not comfortable with dumping that money. $8900 is a lot of money to drop on Granger here, so she is fade here for me. Lemos is going to really have to keep up with Granger here and I don’t know that she will. She has been KO’d by Leslie Smith and that is concerning to me and maybe that is what DK is seeing, but the 7-0 Granger is not a KO artist. She brings much more of a submission game to the table and I think Lemos can at the very least take this to the cards. However, I’m not comfortable with her either. So for me, I am most likley fading this fight. I am picking Granger to win.
The Pick: Granger
Alatang $8000 vs Benoit $8200
If you like MMA math then technically Benoit is up for a loss. He has W,L,W,L ratio. He just can’t tie things together to get his motor going. He is well rounded and even though he has good wrestling chops, his keys to victory is throwing heat and looking for a KO. Alatang is going to look to grapple with him, but I think Benoit can do enough to nullify it. I think Benoit is a fair price here and even though the price doesn’t seem ever a great idea to bury some eggs on, I don’t mind Benoit here. I do fear that his layoff may cause him to be rusty, but I think he gets this done and I will grab some of him here. I will fade Alatang.
The Pick: Benoit
Live Dogs: (In prefered Order)
Da Yung $7900
Shnell $7100 (be very careful here and dont expect much. This is flyer.)
Moktarian $6900 (This is a MAJOR punt. But a bullet wont kill ya.)
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