MadLab’s UFC Rochester Breakdown and Predictions!!!
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MAIN CARD
Rafael Dos Anjos $8200 vs. Kevin Lee $8000
Talk about a very close main event in pricing and in stylistic matchmaking. When you look at this fight in a briefcase you will most likely be swayed to the side of Lee and here is why. When you look at the last 2 losses of RDA what do you see? He was beaten by 2 wrestlers in Usman and Covington. No matter what he tried to do, they were just able to really keep on that pressure and make it slimy for the duration of the fight. So with Kevin Lee a good wrestler he should be able to do the same correct? Well, yes and no. Yes because he will be able to implore his wrestling early but one thing that Lee doesn’t have that allows Colby and Usman to be so effective is great cardio. Kevin Lee does tend to tire and we have seen that over and over again in his fights win or lose. He pushes a very hard pace for about 2 round and then he tends to coast with a pace that is still ok but yet very very manageable. We have also seen him rocked plenty of times in which his opposition just didn’t capitalize at the right time or failed to altogether. In Lee’s defense, he has been coming into fights plagued with ailments that can hinder your cardio, but it just seems that his cardio in its entirety is not meant to go a full 5 and if he does, he just exhausts himself. RDA is a very different animal. Extremely well versed on the feet, solid on the ground, has been in many deep fights, and incredibly hard to finish. In 39 fights the UFC Vet has only been finished 3 times. 2 by KO and 1 by way of Submission. 4 of his last 6 fights have been decisions going all 5 rounds which tells us that he is well equipped to go yard if he needs to. Another thing you must remember here is that many people look at RDA as a very well polished striker which he is. Very good leg game, slick boxing, understands how to create angles and also very good in a phone booth. However, Kevin Lee may want to think twice about getting too cute on the ground with him. Even tho he is much more prone to standing and banging with you, He does own a 3rd degree Black Belt in BJJ and is more than capable of catching Lee especially later in a fight that Lee may get sloppy in a wrestling exchange due to gas tank issues. Both men have their lanes to win this fight and to be honest, Lee is talented enough and well versed enough to really take it to RDA, but the story remains unread on his cardio and conditioning deep into fights and RDA is one to start taking over as fights become deep and dirty. Lee has more of an ability to put it on you early where RDA has more of an ability to really have a steady consistent style that unless you have the conditioning and the ability to adjust for all 5 rounds you can end up on the wrong side of the judges. I see this being super competitive especially in the beginning and I can see Lee getting the better of some exchanges early. Then as the fight progresses I see RDA just slowly stuffing some desperation shots by Lee and really start to open up with his striking and leg game. Lee has been known, as I said above, to be rocked and taken out of his game and RDA is not one to let you off the hook if you are rocked. Lee is really going to have to be on point with his wrestling in order to really keep RDA off his timing. I think he does it early but not for the span of 5 rounds.
The Pick: RDA
Vicente Luque $9400 vs. Derrick Krantz $6500
Say goodbye to Magny and hello to the local kid. The record looks good and he has 20 finishes out of 22 fights. The local kid got the call literally last minute as he now gets to fight a beast like Vicente Luque. Luque has a full camp, has plenty of experience and is fighting a kid that was supposed to debut on the contender series. This is not a mock on the kid, because the 30-year-old is a tough customer, but this is about to get a little overwhelming for him and that’s all I need to say about this to be quite honest. Too much. Too soon.
The Pick: Luque
Antonio Carlos Junior $8700 vs. Ian Heinisch $7500
Talk about a possible fight of the night here. Heinisch is just so tough, and he really lives up to the German last name he owns. Good pace, good hard pressure, power wrestling, serviceable striking and just a solid chin. This guys toughness makes him much better than he actually is skill wise. I say that often to people and they don’t quite understand that. Sometimes sheer toughness can take over for talent in certain aspects of the fight. If you are the most talented fighter in the world with no toughness to you than it is honestly useless. Heinisch brings both in which makes him dangerous. The 12-1 fighter has the ability to finish but half of his wins have just been by grinding decisions just the way he likes them. He will be taking on “ShoeFace.” The Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace understands exactly what he is good at and showed that in his career pulling off 8 submissions in 10 wins. He is currently on a 5 fight win streak in which all but one went to the cards. Fighting shoe face is simple… stay standing or good luck. Sounds easy right? Well, good luck. If you decided to engage on the floor with him, his confidence in his grappling allows him to really just go full offensive from his guard and that’s what makes him so dangerous. The minute the fight hits the canvas you will see him almost smile like he just arrived home and is now in his wheelhouse. The problem is Heinish is just so damn tough that tapping him out will not be easy at all. With that said his sole loss was in fact by way of submission and I wouldn’t consider Markus Perez anywhere on the level of shoe face in that department. It’s going to be a very interesting fight and a tough test for men indeed but gun to head I can’t go against ACJ here. He is just too slick on the back and in top control and sometimes toughness won’t even help you to defend a tight choke.
The Pick: ACJ
Megan Anderson $8500 vs. Felicia Spencer $7700
There has been a lot swirling around about Anderson and her weight cuts lately. Also, people feeling that maybe this girl is a little over hyped as well. Long for the division, good striking and very strong. Anderson has all the marking of being a very talented fighter. Her UFC career happened in a very odd fashion. Her first fight against Holm, I just think she was thrown to the wolves there, and in her last fight, she won by red stoppage due to an injury to Zingano’s eye. Not exactly how you want to win but she got the “W” at the end of the day. Anderson does have pressure on her to perform. People gave her a pass fighting Holm on her debut and even the eye poke is something that can’t be controlled, but she needs to win a fight to really get her star rolling and if she doesn’t then reasonably speaking people may start to ask questions. She takes on Felicia Spencer from Invicta who is currently holding a 6-0 record with 3 of them by way of submission. She is not what you would call a household name and not someone that I can honestly see the UFC getting behind. I really think that they are throwing Anderson a layup here. She needs to do her job and win here and if she doesn’t then the critics will pounce. Spencer has zero pressure in this spot, so all the pressure is in Anderson’s lap. Despite the weight cutting rumors flying around, I think Anderson gets her back off the wall here and wins this fight. It isn’t going to answer many questions considering the talent she is facing, but it will at least get her a win and starts the momentum into her next quality opponent. Can’t go against her here.
The Pick: Anderson
Charles Oliveira $9300 vs. Nik Lentz $6900
Such a dangerous fight here from a pricing perspective. Oliveira is such a threat with his submission game that there really isn’t anyone who can shake him once he starts to lock in on you from a grappling perspective. He is extremely slick on the ground from all areas and he knows it. The Black Belt in BJJ has 18 submissions to his merit in 26 fights, so it clearly shows the talent he has obtained in the submission game. However, one thing about CO that you should know is that when things are not going his way, he does tend to bend and break rather quickly and abruptly. I have seen it happen with him on a few occasions. He does not bounce back very well with adversity. I have seen him quit before and I have seen him really just become discouraged if his game isn’t working in the flow of what he wants. The way to beat CO is to really weather his grappling storm and bring pressure that will make him fold or even start to question the balance of power. Nik Lentz is that type of fighter, but has his time come and gone, and can he still Put on that “you have to kill me to beat me” type style of fight. In 42 fights he has only been finished 4 times. Lentz without a doubt has the style to break the will of Oliveira but you also wonder if Oliveira turned a corner since then. What if those days are behind him. What if he is comfortable and confident with his skills to the point where he trusts them enough not to break. I like Lentz a lot but he has been in many wars in his day and even tho he is a tough out for anyone and his durability, for the most part, is top shelf, he is still slowing up and he is still going to be a step behind in this one. If he tried to grind this on the ground then he is playing a very very dangerous game and I am not sure it’s one that he wants to play. Lentz is always going to be in any fight that he’s in and he will always make you leave knowing that you were in one, but he comes up short here.
The Pick: Oliveira
Davi Ramos $9200 vs. Austin Hubbard $7000
Hubbard is debuting here but he actually does show some promise. The former LFA fighter comes to us out of elevation fight team with a 10-2 record. The 27-year-old throws on a decent pace that is a style that seems to be predicated a bit on pocketing rounds. Much more of a striker he holds 3 wins by way of submission while his KO to decision ratio is rather balanced. The tape study def showed that there was something there, but that something doesn’t seem to be enough right now in the position that he is in. He is walking into his debut fight against grappling ace, Davi Ramos. The ADCC World Champion comes to ya with a 9-2 record, with 7 by way of submission. In his 2 losses, he has never been stopped. There isn’t too much to say here or breakdown. Hubbard is really going to have to stay erect for 15 minutes and I don’t think that happens. Eventually Ramos gets him to the ground, eventually Ramos ties him up, and eventually, the kid will begin to see that he is in some very very real situations. If Ramos doesn’t submit him, he will get very close and win by position alone on points. But I think he has him tapping before the final horn.
The Pick: Ramos
UNDERCARD
Aspen Ladd $9100 vs. Sijara Eubanks $7100
Eubanks is tough. I always said that about her, and she does have a good fighter’s frame, but there was always something about her that I thought was missing. I could never really pinpoint it. There is no doubt the girl can fight; she does hold a black belt in BJJ and trains under Gracie Jiu-Jitsu instructor Jamal Paterson. So the tools are there, but there is something that is just holding me back buying in, and maybe it was her last persona. However, the 4-2 fighter is still raw and you need to give raw fighters time to grow into themselves. So we should see growth here, and I’m curious to see if we, in fact, do see that. She will take on the undefeated Aspen Ladd. At 24 years of age, Ladd has made quite the name for herself, supporting a 7-0 record. Ladd has something that I really do like. Outside of her skill set that needs much polishing, she holds a very very primitive fire within her. She really does begin to change during her fights. When she sees an opportunity to finish, she becomes extremely primitive and will scream as she punches, even losing control a bit depending on what her positioning is. People tend to laugh at this, but it does show that she does switch over and in a fight sometimes that is a major asset. To be able to shit off all reasonings and just compute for war. This could be why in 7 wins she has 5 KOs. This is also a rematch that Ladd won once before in Invicta FC 21 by way of decision. So you can imagine that Eubanks was ya this one back bad. I’m sure we will see a better Eubanks then we did in the first outing against Ladd but I also think we see a better Ladd.
The Pick: Ladd
Desmond Green $9500 vs. Charles Jourdain $6700
This one is written all over the wall and if he drops it then he will have pie on his face. After the win against Ross Pearson, he begged to have a spot at home on this card. Well, Desmond, they granted it to you. They also gave you a fighter from TKO to debut here against you at home. The rookie looks good on paper and some of the film I have seen. A 9-1 record with all of his wins coming by way of finish. 6 KOs and 3 submissions. His sole loss was by way of decision. He has a very wiry style and seems to be hard to really lay a bead on. With that said, Green is extremely athletic, fast, and his wrestling is very much on point when he utilized it properly. Fighting at home you have to wonder if Desmond is going to get cute and try to finish this in spectacular fashion for his people. That is dangerous and you never play with fire like that against the unknown. If he stays within the boundaries of his game plan the ln this fight should be as good as won, but like I said we have seen crazier things. With 22 wins green does have finishing potential but 15 have come by way of decision. I am expecting a very similar outcome here. He will have opportunity if he steps on the gas for this one, but the safer logic will tell you Green wins this one most likely by a convincing decision. But don’t be surprised if he steps totally out of character and tries to give his people at home a reason to launch out of their seats.
The Pick: Green
Danny Roberts $8900 vs. Michel Pereira $7300
Look who is back on quick turnaround. Danny Roberts. After a dreadful loss to Claudio Silva, I think his taste buds have soured from the bitter taste. A fight that he was doing so well in, he ended up making a few bad decisions and it put him in a situation that he really didn’t have to be in. Danny Roberts really had Silva dead to rights and exposed a limb and was submitted via armbar. However, it wouldn’t come without controversy. Roberts never tapped and the ref called it a tap out by armbar. Roberts was clearly livid in a fight that was on its way to going his way, and it was taken by the ref. With that said, Roberts never should have been in that position, to begin with, so tap or not, I blame him for putting himself in an exposed situation like that. So here he is and what do we do now? Trust Danny Roberts again? Knowing that he is notorious for bad decisions or do we look at this fight like a give me one back from a fight that was his? MP comes in from Road FC with a 21-9 record. The Brazilian is seasoned and he also has a very well rounded finishing rate of 8 KOs, 6 Subs and 6 Decisions. In his 9 losses, he has only been finished 3 times. So this guy isn’t a pushover, but once again, the level of competition should really be in question as well. He has a strong frame and will be able to match Roberts when it comes to fighting for position, but the speed factor of Roberts is really going to be and should be the equalizer. Roberts, despite his lapse in judgments, really is not a bad fighter, and he does have very good athletic ability and explosive movements. There are obvious reasons why he is turning around so quickly, and I really think that this is a fight that he can win with just his athletic ability, speed and wrestling alone but he will need to be smart and not get impatient. When Roberts doesn’t think and he tends to just move with instinct, that’s when he tends to fall off. I’m certain situations Roberts needs to think quickly but think so he is going through the steps in order to understand where he is and the consequence involved making the wrong decision. He is going into this fight hotwired and I think he really does want that one back very bad. The next best thing he can do is get back in there and get it any way that he can. He will have plenty of time to possibly get a crack at a rematch down the road and right that ship, but right now getting a W is the most important thing. I think he gets it here and gets back in the win column.
The Pick: Roberts
Michael Trizano $8300 vs. Grant Dawson $7900
Very good fight here, and a fight that I will be watching closely. Both of these gentlemen have the ability to make a mark in their division because both have very good promise. Grant Dawson comes to us at 13-1 with 9 by way of submission. The kid has a really big love affair with rear naked chokes considering he has 7 of the 9 subs that way from RNC. He really does look for it where others let it come to them, he will literally search for it and it has worked well for him as you can see. My issue with him here is that he is fighting Mike Trizano and I am super high on this kid. I like his toughness (his striking is obviously in step coming from TSK), and his grappling I would say is sufficient. At 8-0, Trizano has 5 by way of decision and his last two were actually splits. Trizano has finishing ability with submissions and KOs to his merit but his tough smothering style makes it really hard to get him off you to catch a tempo. Trizano likes to be in somewhat of control and he will dance with you until you give him something he likes. He will shoot for subs off his back if he sees it or he will look to secure you against the cage and just outwork you. He isn’t going to back down but he will have to really play his cards right here against a very slick and tough Dawson. Such a hard fight to call here because I can make huge arguments for both, but Trizano is a guy I have had my eye on for a while and I think I have to ride him here until further notice. Not to mention this is a somewhat of a hometown stand for him in this one.
The Pick: Trizano
Patrick Cummins $8800 vs. Ed Herman $7400
What a strange fight this is, huh? This reminds me, with all due respect, as a backyard fighting match with talent. Cummins is a former Penn State wrestler that just shows such a grit about him in all his fights. He knows what he is good at and he knows his genetic code will never allow him to be this flashy fighter. He understands that pressure wrestling whether it’s boring or not will be his path to victory. The guy is a good athlete despite his appearance. The issue with him is that he is a tad chinny and can sometimes be baited into a firefight that doesn’t go his way. At the end of the day, he still understands that wrestling is his token to pass and striking will only be a small means to a path there. Herman was once called “short fuse” good power, tight grappling and never truly a stud but someone that can give you a good scrap on any given night. A gatekeeper if you will, but it seems his time has passed him by a bit and he is just an aging veteran trying to stick around when I am not sure he should be. Still tough and still has the ability to put it on if given the chance, but the opposition needs to be right, and despite his ground ability, I just don’t think Cummins is going to let him breathe once he gets him to the ground. Both men aren’t upper tier men so it can be a dicey fight, but it’s def a fight that I see cumming grinding out for the win.
The Pick: Cummins
Trevin Giles $8400 vs. Zak Cummings $7800
Such an odd fight to me, because if you really look at both fighters, I would dare to say that Cummings is the better all-around fighter. Decent hands, very good BJJ but the problem with him lately is that he just isn’t fighting up to his capability and that bothers me. It seems he has a block in his trigger for some reason. Against Prazeres, he was really just so timid and couldn’t seem to get into any sort of a pocket despite his size and reach advantage in that fight. Against Trevor Smith in his last fight, he looked better and ultimately won a decision but again he didn’t look like he was pulling the trigger totally. He seemed a tad lethargic in both fights. With a 22-6 record, Cummings is very very talented and can really take it to you especially on the ground where he had 11 by way of submission. In his 6 losses, he has been submitted 2 times but has never been KOd which is actually where Giles likes to finish things. So the matchup is interesting to say the very least. I’m just not sure what Cummings we get here and Giles comes to us with an 11-0 record taking heads in his path with only one of his fights heading to the cards. With 5 submissions and 5 KOs. He knows how to finish it anywhere and he has shown that time and time again. However even tho he does have some wins in the UFC I wouldn’t say the level of competition is and was there quite yet. There is no doubt in my mind that he is talented and has a future but this is a really good fight and a measuring stick to really see how good he is right now and where he is at this moment in time. I see his avenues to win here being landing the harder strikes and more effective offense. I also see a window for him to hand the first KO loss in Cummings career. These are possibilities but not necessarily how I think things will go. I think he needs to suffer a loss in his career at some point. It’s a learning lesson. It’s also good sometimes to see the fabric of a fighter and yourself on how you bounce back. He’s good, but he isn’t undefeated good on a high level. I think this could be the fight he takes an “L”. If Cummings shows up with no safety on the trigger and applies offense in a desperation attempt to string together 2 in a row putting him back in the mix then we can have a very good fight on our hands. I’m taking the dog here. Cummings has what it takes to win this fight, he just needs to apply it.
The Pick: Cummings
Julio Arce $9600 vs. Julian Erosa $6600
Erosa is one of those long and rangy fighters for the division that can give anyone fits. Very well rounded but most of all very very hard to lay a bead on. Long limbs, range and overall length will always make you dangerous especially if you truly know how to use it. He does and he has proven that in his resume. With 22 wins, Erosa has won 10 by way of KO and 9 by way of submission. When you fight someone like Erosa, you either have to smother him with wrestling or clinch control or you really need to understand the science of standup to get underneath, Create angles, and really just find ways to clear his range. Julio Arce has all of that, and he will need to utilize it here. Eddie his tough split decision loss to Moraes, Arce hasn’t lost a fight since boom Kelleher in 2016. The 2011 golden globes champion has an extremely polished boxing skill set that will give you fits if you can’t make reads and adjust. He also has an extremely underrated ground game that he only uses if he really needs to shake loose from a situation or he truly has the positioning or control on the ground to make something happen. The Tiger Schulmann 2nd degree black belt is more than capable of hanging with top-flight competition on the right night. Arce is going to eat some shots early against someone like Erosa. He may even threaten the hips early to drop Arce’s hands low to show him that he is coming upstairs and down. At the end of the day, once Arce dials him in and the adjustments are made, I just think his superior boxing and stand up will start to take over and Erosa will start to wither down the stretch. Close fight early but Arce turns the tables late and takes this with overall better movement and more smoothness on the feet.
The Pick: Arce
DRAFTKINGS
- Rafael Dos Anjos $8200 / Kevin Lee $8000
You want some of this fight at both of their prices in a 5 round fight it would be foolish not to. However, picking the right side can be an issue because it is such a close fight. Dos Anjos is my pick so I will have more of him. But fading lee would not be smart. This fight has a lot of the signs of going very deep or even to the cards, which will mean the winner scores very well. The value is there for both men but RDA will have my heavier weight.
- Vicente Luque $9400
He is fighting a late replacement fighter in which is debuting on literally like 48 hours notice. Luque is on a full camp, was training for Neil Magny and will be extremely prepared for this one. $9400 is steep for any name, but I’m willing to take my chances on some here. No reason why he shouldn’t roll here.
- Derrick Krantz $6500
Great opportunity for the kid, but I just can’t see this manifesting into a positive. I’m off.
- ACJ $8700
Such a talented ground specialist, and no matter what happens in the fight, if it hits the mat, it’s advantage ACJ. The problem is Heinisch is just so damn tough. ACJ is sub $9k, and even tho the German is super tough, ACJ won’t let you out easily if he has you on the ground. The opportunities will be there, and that’s enough for me to to take some small chances here.
- Ian Heinisch $7500
I would honestly not be shocked here. I do like ACJ in this spot, but something about this guy makes things sit uneasy. I will have a small dose here because he’s just that type of fighter.
- Megan Anderson $8500
I think they are selling Anderson a little short here. This is her fight to win or lose, but I dare to say, it’s a must win in order for the UFC and the people to buy into her previous hype. I think she understands that she needs a very good outing, and I’m willing to toe the line lightly with her due to her probably not being heavily owned in a fight she can very well finish if she pours it on Spencer.
- Felicia Spencer $7700
I am going to hope Anderson shows up in great form here and doesn’t drop the ball. For that reason, I’m off here.
- Charles Oliveira $9300
Hefty price tag here against a guy who rarely goes quietly into the night. Something scares me about this fight, and I would rather pay the extra 100 for Luque than him in this spot. He can get the sub, but he is going to have to work for it. I just think it’s a dangerous spot against a very durable Lentz.
- Nik Lentz $6900
At $6900, I’m willing to take a flyer here in some spots. He should 100 percent lose this fight, but given Oliveira’s track record of giving up when the chips aren’t going his way, he will always leave the door open for styles like Lentz. I do like Oliveira to win the fight, but a few small punts here isn’t the worst play in the world.
- Davi Ramos $9200
The dude is a grappling ace who can literally submit you the minute you leave the window open. I am expecting him to possibly sink something in before the horn here. I will have shares of him, and I am suggesting you do as well.
- Austin Hubbard $7000
I would be surprised if he can manage to keep himself safe for the full 15 while mounting offense. I’m off.
- Aspen Ladd $9100 / Sijara Eubanks $7100
I picked Ladd to win, but I think I’ll pass on the $9100 price tag. I think the value is on Eubanks in the dog spot. But in a fight that I am not super thrilled about, I won’t be exposing this fight much at all, if any.
- Desmond Green $9500
The decision machine got a taste of a finish in his last fight and begged to be on this card. At $9500, it is an eyebrow raiser a bit, because he isn’t someone who is going to put it on you from bell-to-bell, but he will, in fact, try in his hometown. I can see him being faded in a lot of spots, and as tempting as it may be to take chances here, I won’t. He most likely wins a decision.
- Charles Jourdain $6700
Nahhhhhhh. Not on Green’s home soil.
- Danny Roberts $8900
He has something to prove after dropping a fight he should have won a few months ago. At sub $9k and people a little shy on him, I’m going to trust in him one more time that he can clean up that mess and right the ship. Don’t sleep here.
- Michel Pereira $7300
I don’t see him beating Roberts, who needs this one very badly.
- Michael Trizano $8300 / Grant Dawson $7900
I’m picking Trizano, and I will be weighted more on him, but you would be insane if you didn’t play this both ways. This is literally a coin flip fight with scoring potential.
- Patrick Cummins $8800
The price is on a cliff hanger for me, and I just don’t trust him that much. I’m expecting him to win, but I can value elsewhere.
- Ed Herman $7400
I am off this fight in its entirety, I think.
- Trevin Giles $8400
He has the potential to finish at any time. I think his price is right to slot him on some spots.
- Zak Cummings $7800
I actually think he has a very good chance to win this fight. It’s all about the game plan. At $7800, I will take some fliers here.
- Julio Arce $9600
Good spot for him, but tough price. Sometimes ludicrous prices can be just what is needed to drive his ownership down. Scares me, but 1 or 2 won’t kill me.
- Julian Erosa $6600
I don’t see him beating Arce anywhere.
VEGAS BETS
ACJ -165
1.65 to win 1
Anderson -200
2 to win 1
Ramos -155 Inside the Distance
1.55 to win 1
Lentz/Oliviera o1.5 -120
1.2 to win 1
Luque by KO/TKO -140
1.4 to win 1
Good luck, y’all!
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