MadLab’s UFC Fight Night San Antonio Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying…
UFC FIGHT NIGHT MAIN CARD
Rafael Dos Anjos $7900 vs. Leon Edwards $8300
Leon Edwards is no stranger to being in the media lately with some post-fight issues when he and Jorge Masvidal got into it after they crossed paths following both of their victories. Leon Edwards showed great takedown defense against nelson and also showed that he was able to get out of odd situations against such a high level and committed grappler. The issue with him was that he did show a little downslide in conditioning near the end of that fight when nelson was finally able to secure mount against him after having so much success shucking him off for the entire fight. When you are fighting in a main event spot for 5 rounds against someone like RDA you better be ready to go full tilt conditioning-wise unless you really think you are going to spark him cold. RDA is a guy in which should be declining but he continues to impress with a monster win against the highly respected up and comer Lee. Where he showed that his gas tank will prevail if you don’t have the oxygen to match or the ability to finish him. His game is well rounded, well-timed, and he ties everything together so well. His striking is on point, his durability is solid, his cardio is always in check, his grappling is chained together so well, and his Cage IQ ad experience is at its height. Edwards is a very talented and well-versed fighter in his own right but can we say all these same attributes apply to him? I don’t think we can. He is in my estimation very underrated, but in the same breath, So is RDA. people are sleeping on both men and I think this fight can get one of them their rightful due. I think Edwards will give RDA all he can handle on the feet but it is where RDA can switch things up that can be a problem. Edwards, even tho he showed a much improved grappling game and takedown defense against a ground weapon like Gunner Nelson, RDA is a different animal altogether. As good as a grappler that gunner is, his ability to get you to the ground lacks and it showed with the way that Edwards held his own shucking him off. I am not sure he will have that same success against RDA. Also, if this becomes a fight of conditioning then I have to lean on RDA here. Edwards is on an absolute tear beating guys like Sabbatto, Cerrone, Nelson, Barberana, and Luque. He has not lost a fight since 2016 putting him on a 7 fight win streak. He is not to be taken lightly by anyone, but he is not familiar with rounds past the 3rd and RDA has awent 5 in 3 of his last 4 fights. This has become normal territory for him at this point and picking him in a prime time spot in which has been academic to him for years seems like the smart and educated way to look at this. Edwards hit the lucky 7 mark; it’s time for that streak to come to an end here.
The Pick: RDA
Aleksei Oleinik $7500 vs. Walt Harris $8700
If this fight doesn’t scare the shit out of you then you don’t know much about the men fighting. Olenik is one of those guys that I can only describe as “Old Man Strength.” You won’t see any fancy transitions rolling into these crazy situations. He isn’t fast, athletic, or even appealing to watch. What he is, is a master at sneaking in chokes that you don’t expect coming and when they start to find its way into position it’s just too late. His old man strength and grip are just far too constricting to even imagine without feeling it. The 42 year old and Black Belt in BJJ under the great Ricardo Liborio has a 57 and 12 record and has applied that vice grip to 45 of his 57 opponents laying them to rest. The issue with him is that in his 12 loses he was KO’d 6 times and his last 2 losses were from that exact way. At 42 years old, you have to lose a step, and it’s a step that he just didn’t really have to begin with but if he gets his paws on you then say goodbye to the people, lights and surroundings around you because you most likely will be taking a nap as he chokes you to sleep slowly. He will be looking to show exactly that against the younger, faster, and big power puncher in big Walt Harris. With a 12-7 record, Walt has the tools to be a good fighter but he is very reliant on that big shot and he proves it with every win with all 12 by way of KO. In his 7 loses he has been KOd 2 times and submitted once by the great Fabricio Verdum. His takedown defense if respectable at around 75 percent but it is not the takedowns that you really have to worry about with AO. He will start a submission standing in the clinch, on his back or on top. It really doesn’t matter where he is, so the best path to victory is to stay clear of him and just let your hands go beating him to the punches which really is not that hard considering he is very rickety and rusted in his approach. If Walt stays in a decent range and can get off his hands then I am expecting him to land something big at some point, but he will really need to play his cards right or he can find himself in a situation that so many people have found themselves in, in the past. Which is here today and gone tomorrow. The upside for Walt is nice, but the risk and reward can be daunting and scary against a guy like AO. frightening fight to pick but gun to head I am going with the big ticket.
The Pick: Walt Harris
Greg Hardy $8100 vs. Juan Adams $8100
If you are looking for a very low skill leveled fight with 2 monsters that will literally be looking to decapitate each other with their ruthless power, then look no further. This fight honestly should have you covered. Hardy came to the UFC with a load of personal issues, but no one can really deny the guy’s athletic ability, making it to the highest level in football being the NFL. After Dana White gave him his shot to fight, the raw power of this guy is quite clear. He has tallied a 4-1 record in which his only loss was by way of disqualification. With that said, it is obvious that the UFC is walking this guy at a very very slow pace to give him plenty of time to get ahead of the curve. His competition has been regional circuit at best and I will dare to say that his last fight could have been a small work in the way that fight went down, but that’s none of my business. He will face Juan Adams. A very large man with some sick power in his own right with a 5-1 record, all of his wins have come by way of KO and his only loss was in his last fight against Bhuller in which honestly could have gone either way. With that said he is extremely raw and has about as much cage time as Hardy does in the grand scheme of it all. This will not be a high technical fight, it will not be a fight in which skill sets come into play and it will not be a fight that you need to really sit there and try to get all scientific. Anyone that is breaking this down from a statistical standpoint or by “this one’s last fight and that one’s last fight they did this and that…..” Then I highly suggest you look away and laugh. I will make it very very simple for you. The person who lands the cleanest bomb before gassing out wins. Period…..End of story….. Flip a coin because that is what this fight is all about. If you go by the narrative that the UFC is getting behind Hardy and they want to see him win then you have your answer. However, something tells me that this fight could be the end of the Hardy train. I could be dead wrong. Just a gut feeling here.
The Pick: Adams
James Vick $7700 vs. Dan Hooker $8500
This is a hard fight to call, to be honest. In one stretch of the means, you have Dan hooker who just showed tremendous heart and durability in his fight against Barboza. I mean that fight seriously could have been stopped plenty of times and he really did take a lot of unnecessary blows. In situations like that where his corner did not look out for his best interest and the red dropped the ball on his well being, you wonder how a person is affected going forward. A lot of factors play into an assault like that. It will be a good measuring stick for him and his constitution as a fighter and a person. You learn a lot about yourself after situations like that. On the flip side, you have James Vick who was on a fast rise until he was stopped cold in his tracks two fights ago and then was outworked by Paul Felder in his most recent outing. He too needs to prove to us and himself that he can bounce back from heavy defeat like that. Tough fight to call here with both guys coming in needing measuring sticks to see where there are after tough roads. There is no doubt that hooker has the skills and the power to put Vick away for a 3rd time in a row but I see Vick’s length and ability to grapple coupled with a possible cautious game plan may allow him to really use his length to keep his chin out of range making it difficult for Hooker to find his mark. I’m expecting Vick to really use his jab here and keep hooker honest with kicks. If hooker gets close enough, expect Vick to close the space even more and clinch. In a fight that Vick really needs to save face here, I am giving him the slight edge in front of his home state of Texas. Give me the dog.
The Pick: Vick
Alexander Hernandez $8900 vs. Francisco Trinaldo $7300
Despite what people are touting now or talking about now, I think it’s fair to say that I was one of the only people on this kid when he came in on short notice against Dariush. I said that there was something about this kid that really scares me and that if he was going to win this fight it was going to be off explosive movements and catching Dariush cold. Well, that’s exactly what happened and the rest was history. Since then he remained looking very sharp until he faced the grizzled veteran in Cerrone. He showed his rawness and his nonability to stay patient and embrace the moment. He got worked and there is no excuse that can be made. However, in most cases, not all losses are bad ones. Especially if you have a brain in your head with room to grow and Hernandez is a very intelligent young man with a ton of potential. Well above average athletic ability, explosive, powerful and has a very good wrestling game, Hernandez is really not far off from being a legit ranked name. He will take on a very tough vet by the name of Francisco Trinaldo. The jury is still out on how old this guy really is but he is def much older than the young spry Hernandez. Impeccable shape for his age with good power and very sharp grappling, Trinaldo is not an easy out for anyone in the division. With that said you need to really be realistic here. Who is the future and who really has the opportunity to cause some heat in this division? Hernandez does. He’s charismatic and he is a very good personality for the brand on top of an extremely fan-friendly fighting style. The UFC is thrilled to death they found this kid. Trust me. This is a stepping stone for him to be able to put a solid name on his resume before he takes a dive in the dark and deep water of the division where the real sharks play. I am expecting Hernandez to be aggressive but not to a fault this time. He will use his wrestling to stifle Trinaldo and make the aging fighter keep up to his pace which eventually the old respected vet just won’t be able to do. This is Hernandezes fight to win or lose. I think he passes the test and starts to get his scuba gear on because then it’s time to go swimming with the big boys.
The Pick: Hernandez
Andrei Arlovski $7200 vs. Ben Rothwell $9000
The big boys are back again y’all. Not going to spend too much time here because I really think this is going to go one of two ways but more so the way I am predicting. Arlovski ay one time was the best pure boxer in heavyweight MMA by a country mile. His movement, footwork, and combos were just so crisp and fluid. As time progress so did the dip in his skills and timing but that is natural with age. However, what never diminished was his will to fight. The guy still loves to fight. He isn’t doing it for money or fame. He is doing it because he truly loves to fight and the guy can still throw down. With that said he is slowing down and his brain is writing checks that his body isn’t willing to fully cash out anymore. Rothwell is no spring chicken but the guy had a lengthy layoff and he is much fresher as well as much larger and stronger than the pit bull. Don’t let Rothwell fool you. This guy was a force to be reckoned with before his hiatus. Beating some primed guys like Josh Barnett in his prime. This fight is interesting because it is a rematch from years back where Arlovski would win the first and it’s quite obvious Rothwell wants this one back. This is a fight where I think the pit bull will look good early, using his movement and speed to stay elusive but eventually the big man is going to start finding his sweet spot and Arlovski will have a lot of weight to carry with Rothwell using it wisely possibly wearing on Arlovski giving Rothwell all the opportunity to pull the rug out from under Arlovski’s early success and draw it out of him late. I have to go Rothwell here. I feel he was taken for in his return fight in a fight I thought he won 29-28. He didn’t look great but he didn’t look bad either and now I think he kicked some rust off his boots and should be ready to roll here.
The Pick: Rothwell
UFC FIGHT NIGHT UNDERCARD
Alex Caceres $8800 vs. Steven Peterson $7400
Weird fight for me here but there is something about this kid Peterson that I like. He isn’t very good and he reminds me of a little of a Jason Knight style of fighter. He will eat 3 to five one and the kid just keeps moving forward in the process. What he lacks in skill the kid brings in heart and even tho his record is not an impressive one at 17-8, the kid is going to give you his soul in there if it’s necessary. His striking is nothing to write home about but it’s aggressive and his wrestling is nothing to put a stamp on the letter and send it but it’s also aggressive. He is just an aggressive fighter and when you fight a guy like that you need to be very in tuned with timing and rhythm because a guy like Peterson will not give you huge windows to find them if you can’t seem to dial things in. His record is up and down with a rotation of wins and loses but I can say the same about Caceres coming in with a record of 17-12 which isn’t that impressive either. Caceres is one of those kids who came into the UFC and you really thought that he has the opportunity to present that new matrix style. He has some flashes of very good dynamic abilities and started to showcase some of the new bloodline that we can look forward to going forward. I glimpse into what’s is to come in our sport if you will. With all that said he lost his way a bit and he was more concerned with outside of the cage excursions like spending time with his GF and all that. That’s all fine and great, no one is saying what’s right and wrong but if you want to maximize what you are as a combat sports athlete, your first love needs to be fighting for the time you are heavily involved. I don’t believe that he ever truly peaked due to these reasons but there is still time and sometimes with maturity comes focus and maybe he is ready to turn a corner. At 31 years of age, if he wants to turn that corner then now is the prime age to do it at. With that said he will need to win this fight on points because I don’t see him having the power to KO Petersons wildly durable chin or submit him due to the pressure and smothering style that Peterson will bring Caceres. Close fight but I will take a stab on the dog here.
The Pick: Peterson
Raquel Pennington $7800 vs. Irene Aldana $8400
Those of you that know me, know I like Aldana. She is long, rangy, and has a solid striking prowess. On top of that, she fights with that Mexican pride which is always appealing. With that said she has shown the ability to let people really hang around and very rarely will put it on them in a decisive manner. With that said there is no quit in her approach and even in times of sliding, she will start to show that Mexican pride and really start to show her resilience even if her chops aren’t meeting her halfway. The way to beat Aldana is constant pressure and bring the fight to her. Allowing her to dictate the terms of the fight will only allow her to catch her rhythm and set her own pace. In turn, dialing you in will not be too difficult considering striking is her weapon of choice and she is usually longer than most of her opposition. RP brings an interesting matchup here for Aldana because like Aldana she fights with a certain element of toughness under her belt and she really uses her toughness more than anything to get underneath and test your medal. With that said she lost her last 2 against Nunes and GDR. Not losses to really hang your head low about. She has wins over people like Miesha Tate and Jessica Andrade even tho it stems back a few years. If you look at the 2 people that she lost to as of late, they were both strikers. Strikers that are better than Aldana, but still strikers. They understood how to keep space and use their combos in an effective manner to let her know that if she comes in she is going to be clipped. This is the way you need to fight someone like RP. Although Aldana is not as crafty as the other 2 women, she is long and crafty enough to keep her off. This is going to be a better fight then people think but a fight Aldana should win.
The Pick: Aldana
Sam Alvey $7600 vs. Klidson Abreu $8600
Alvey was my knight in shining armor a few times in DK, but as time goes on he just has more lackluster performances then he does solid ones. He is a counter striker but a counter striker to a fault. He can really throw some low output that will really make the judges raise their eyebrows and yawn, but he does have a pretty well time check hook when he steps back. He understands how to really walk you onto it. It is not so much as baiting you as much as it is him just understanding the way to walk you onto it when you are already committing to him. With that said it has to be timed well and the windows for these things are not very plentiful. De Abreu came in on short notice against Ankalov and although he lost the fight by decision, I was impressed with him in a sense. Very good grappling and really embraced the moment instead of shying from it. It says a lot about his confidence as a fighter. He reminds me of someone who would come out of Bellator for some reason. Not a household name guy that will ever really contend for much but a guy that can be a middle of the road fighter that has the ability to test some chops. In his 14 wins, 10 of them have been by way of Submission which is a clear indicator that his chops are very clean and clear on the ground. In his 3 losses, he had his clock cleaned 2 times and outside of his last fight where he did show some potential, he hasn’t really fought anyone that you can say is very good. Even tho Alvey is aging and he def isn’t the same guy anymore. He still does have decent takedown defense and a very sneaky check punch that will really put anyone out if he catches them right. I’m not expecting a great fight here by any means but I think Alvey still has enough in his tank to teach the newcomer a lesson here. I’ll take the old dog one time here.
The Pick: Alvey
Roxanne Modafferi $8000 vs. Jennifer Maia $8200
This fight took place already in Invicta, and Maia would win a split decision. I am not high on any of these ladies and you really think I would have learned my lesson a long time ago with picking against Modafferi. However, her style is just so plodding and there is really nothing about her game that intrigues me at all. She is slow, uncoordinated and all around just not an athletic fighter at all. With that said the girl is tough and finds her sports when she needs to. She has good grappling and she will enter the pocket happily to make you get into a little dog fight with her. She is very seasoned and one of the happiest people to be walking into the octagon. She really loves the game. With that said, I don’t see this fight going any differently than the last one. Even tho it was a split decision in Maia’s favor, she still holds the edge in just being able to get to the spots a little quicker than Modafferi. A little quicker, a little sharper and a little more athletic in a fight that will be judged in inches those traits can go a long way.
The Pick: Maia
Ray Borg $9300 vs. Gabriel Silva $6900
This fight can sway you by Silva’s record. Don’t let it. The 8-0 fighter is not terrible but if you look at him on film he is a low-grade Borg. There are no areas where I can see him better than Borg here. Stand up, cardio, experience and most of all his strength is his grappling and he isn’t going to out grapple Ray Borg. Before o dove down an unnecessary rabbit hole here let me just say that him debuting and having a huge mountain to climb and a really bad stylistic matchup just doesn’t bode well for him. Borg may not be a household name but he has been in there with the best and has held his own. I find it very hard to believe that Silva will be able to keep up with Borg where it may end up. This is borgs fight to win and I expect him to do just that.
The Pick: Borg
Mario Bautista $7100 vs. Jin Soo Son $9100
JSS is apart of the Korean Zombie fight team and he flew onto my radar a while back. His style is very interesting, to say the least. He really enjoys taunting and showboating while he is in there. He will look at you and smile. Walk forward with his chin out and laugh and just really do what he can to get under your skin in a multitude of ways. With all that said he still can fight and I like how he does just that. Pretty well rounded and well versed he also has good size behind him. In his debut fight against Peter Yan, he really showed the ability to dictate some terms and still fight with the bravado that he had before he got the call to the big show. He has confidence in his game and that’s important. He also understands how to entertain and that is important also. Bautista seems to be a fighter that is aggressive but really makes a lot of mistakes and he showed that in his fight against Sandhagen. He doesn’t seem to be super patient and he will try and create openings rather than try and wait for them to present themselves. Not the greatest approach when you are fighting a calm and patient fighter. Both these men are looking to get in the win column and I think it’s JSS.
The Pick: Soo Son
Dom Pilarte $9400 vs. Felipe Colares $6800
This fight is really cut and dry for me. Pilarte is bigger. Stronger. Faster. And has very good pressure wrestling. Colares has good grappling but that’s about where it ends and I think he is going to be fighting to survive more than he is fighting to win offensively. I think Pilarte controls this fight and takes the W to start off the card with a possible finish here.
The Pick: Pilarte
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DRAFTKINGS
- RDA $7900
I am expecting this fight to go decision but in a 5 round fight of your giving me RDA under $8k with a fight he can surely win, I’ll take my chances.
- Edwards $8300
He has value as well, not being too far off RDA’s price. With that said, I am picking RDA so I will obviously have more of RDA in my lineups.
- Oleinik $7500
The guy always has a shot to slip something in deep so I wouldn’t fade him ever, but something tells me if he doesn’t sink something quick then it can be a rough night for him.
- Harris $8700
At sub $9k, I am not thrilled about it but I feel like there is upside for a KO here. I’ll have some.
- Hardy $8100 / Adams $8100
Get some both ways. There is really no way to pick this one. They are both mehhh. But they have power. Someone should get flatlined. I will have both just due to the upside but I will have more Adams.
- Vick $7700
Vick’s had a tough run lately, and even tho he is cheap, it’s a scary fight for me to really trust him all that much against a guy who took an assault from Barboza and lived to tell the tale. Not super excited about this one.
- Hooker $8500
Tough kid and showed his medal in his last fight. However, Hooker may have his issues clearing space against a guy like Vick. I am not high on him here.
- Hernandez $8900
You know I love this kid, but he may come out a little more disciplined than in his last fight. With that said, I won’t be fading him. However, I will be tempering my expectations a bit.
- Trinaldo $7300
I don’t see him keeping up.
- Arlovski $7200
I don’t like this matchup for the legend.
- Rothwell $9000
There is upside for a finish here, and Rothwell is going to be more comfortable then he was in his last fight after being inactive for quite some time. I’m expecting a good fight, but Rothwell should be able to dictate terms here. I am interested in some Rothwell lightly.
- Caceres $8800
He is favored to win, but I don’t see him finishing Peterson. At $8800, I don’t see much value.
- Peterson $7400
There is value here. He isn’t very good but neither is Caceres. He isn’t more skilled than Caceres but he is tougher and he is going to be looking to push the fight at his pace. I’m slightly interested.
- Pennington $7800
I don’t doubt that she can win this fight and I wouldn’t be shocked if she did but you need to pick and choose your spots. I wouldn’t hate you for taking a swing on her but I’m going to pass here.
- Aldana $8400
If Pennington decides to stand and trade with Aldana, then the volume could accumulate. I don’t love it, but I don’t hate it either. At $8400, I will find some room for her in small spots.
- Alvey $7600
I don’t see why he should be a dog here. I hate him for draft kings and he never scores well. But I am always intrigued by a small bullet or 2 just for the mere fact that he does have that one punch that he can walk you on to. With that said Alvey is not someone you should be excited to target, but one that every once in a while can be a sneaky one.
- De Abreu $8600
I’m off him here. He hasn’t proved anything to me outside of a padded record and a tough fought fight that he still lost anyway. $8600? Prove to me. Show me more.
- Modafferi $8000 / Maia $8200
This fight is intriguing to me. I feel like this will either be a super fun fight or a really boring one. Very black and white. I feel like I am going to have some small exposure here but nothing that will allow me to be too invested. The price is right to hedge as well. I am going to pass on this fight in the majority of my lineups but I will have exposure in spots with a heavier weight on Maia.
- Borg $9300
He is expensive but his transitions and his upside to showcase against someone like Silva is there but he hasn’t been finishing fights as of late so it will be really up to Silva push the pace allowing Borg to flow. I would have loved for him to be cheaper because $9300 is not a great price. But I will have my shares of him given all the ways he can add points to his final result.
- Silva $6900
Fade for me here.
- Soo Son $9100
He really isn’t super active and he is more of a patient fighter which would normally make me lean more on fade mode for his price tag. But to fade him fully probably isn’t a good idea. He does have the ability to tune it on when the time calls for it.
- Pilarte $9400
I have some intrigue here. But damn he’s expensive. Good wrestling and very explosive. It’s scary but I am going to take a few chances here in hopes that he can secure the fight when he gets it there.
- Colares $6800
Good BJJ but I think he spends a lot of time on his back here.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT VEGAS BETS
Ray Borg -175
1.75 Units to win 1
2.2 to Win 1
Jin Soo Son -165
1.65 to win 1
1 Unit to win 1.10