MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Vancouver Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT MAIN CARD
Donald Cerrone $7200 vs. Justin Gaethje $9000
Very intriguing fight for me here and here is why. Both men bring a very hard element to solve their styles. On one side you have Justin in which, although he is not flashy, he is much like a walking zombie in a sense that the riddle isn’t something that needs to be thought out, but much more having the desire to push forward and meet him in some very dark places. Gathje will test you and will really be the person to show you who you really are as a fighter. So many fighters really believe that they have the heart and the desire to walk through fire until they are actually near the flame. Justin is going to show you what it’s like to dig deep, he is going to really make you prove to him that you are willing to go into the darkest of places to win that fight. So the riddle really isn’t solving him. The riddle is really solving you. It is a sheer riddle on yourself to see how far you are willing to go to get that “W” and I can guarantee you that if one man is going to pull you to your endpoint, it will be him. The funny thing about Justin is that he knows that. He has a very easy path to a safe victory in many of his fights but for some odd reason, he refuses to go there. He has extremely good wrestling, but Justin knows that he has something that many just don’t, and that is a full bore desire for war and to be the last man standing. He is a showman and if you want to beat him then you need to really show you’re on his level which in most cases is not the way it ends. He will be taking on another crowd favorite in Cowboy Cerrone. Cowboy is a riddle in his own right for the mere fact that he really just has such a well-rounded game and you need to be prepared on all levels. He has an extremely good stand up and his grappling is so slick yet so very underrated. Cerrone is a guy that has had a major surge in his career. This is a guy that at one time just seemed like he was absolutely washed. We were all calling for him to consider retirement and boy did he ever prove us wrong after he had a child. Going on a 3 fight win streak beating guys like Mike Perry, Alexander Hernandez, and Al Iaquinta. In his last fight, he lost to Ferguson by doctors stoppage due to a serious eye issue, but he was game until then. There is no telling what Cerrone you will see as he gets more aged, but he has never looked better in his career and that can be an issue for JG. JG is there to be hit and the thing that makes him so good is that he is so damn durable, but Cerrone is going to have target practice in spots with him and it will be really on his gas tank to see how hard he can push for how long, and if his own durability holds up against a guy like JG. Look, it’s really not a hard equation from a durability standpoint. We all know JG is far more superior when it comes to being able to take punishment but there is also no doubt that the more cerebral fighter is going to be Cerrone. However, the kicking game is where this can be interesting. Cerrone has a very good top and low-level kicking game and has shown us that many times in the past, but JG has possibly the most powerful kicking games in the division. I can see this fight starting out on the feet where they are both playing cat and mouse. Cerrone is really going to have to pace himself here. This is not a fight that he can afford to have his mouth open in the 2nd round as the wind starts to leave his sails. He must pace himself and understand that anytime he wishes to exchange, JG is going to smile and exchange back. Use footwork and speed to get this fight into your wheelhouse and get JG chasing. That is when fighters tend to get a little sloppy. All this is much easier said than done tho. It is also very frustrating when you are teeing off on a man that just won’t go away. I feel like Cerrone is going to be winning this fight until he realizes that JG just isn’t going away. JG is going to start walking through fire, taking 2 to land one until he just wears on Cowboy. Eventually, the levy is going to break and Cerrone is just going to become sucked into a fight that he really wants no part of. This fight should be a pick em but I need to lean on JG a bit more. He digs too deep to ever really be able to confidently pick against him. There are a lot of moving parts in this fight but I keep going back to JG just eventually dragging Cerrone into the basement with the lights off into a place he really doesn’t want to be at this age.
The Pick: Gaethje
Glover Teixeira $7700 vs. Nikita Krylov $8500
I’m not super high on this fight at all. Makes no sense for a Co-Main to be honest with you. At 39 years of age, where is Glover really going? He is on a 2 fight win streak which I get, but at the end of the day, Glover is still on the wrong side of 30. In the history of his resume, this is a fight that he should really win. It seems Glover’s entire career he takes major leaps and then when he gets a big meaningful fight, he tends to drop it. With that said he is an extremely talented heavyweight with very slick boxing and a Ground game that can hang with the best of them in the Light Heavyweight Division. With 17 wins by KO and 8 by way of Submission, it’s easy to understand why he is a major threat no matter what age he is. I just feel like as an aging heavyweight the damn doors eventually give in, but will it happen now? That is a very hard question to answer when you have a guy on a 2 fight win streak and hasn’t shown a major decline as of yet. But 39 and 27 is a huge gap in age, especially when you are fighting a more athletic and well-versed fighter in Krylov. With a 25 and 6 record, Krylov has 10 wins by KO and 15 wins by way of submission. The interesting stat for Tex being a 2nd-degree black belt in BJJ is that he has been submitted 5 of his 6 losses. So there is a clear path there if this hits the ground. In his last fight he submitted OSP who in his own right is a very good ground specialist for a big man, but the fight before that he was submitted by Jan Blachowitz. So as you see as much as an offensive submission threat that he is, he really does have some defensive grappling issues and that can be a serious problem against a guy like Glover. It is so hard to gauge how this fight will pan out and where. Both men are very similar in their approach in spots and both men will actually need to respect each other’s games on both levels. I am expecting this fight to be slow in the beginning. I think they will feel each other out for the most part and both will be very tentative to go to the ground unless the opportunity really presents itself or the other gets into trouble on their feet early. I personally think that Glover is the better fighter and we know he is the more seasoned fighter, but I just think as this fight travels farther down the stretch, you are going to see age playing a factor. There are a few things in life you can’t fight and time is one of them. I am expecting him to put on a showcase a very good fight but I think he comes up a little short as NK just gets to the spots a little cleaner, sharper, and faster.
The Pick: Krylov
Todd Duffee $7900 vs. Jeff Hughes $8300
What in the F___! Todd Duffee?! That was literally my reaction when I saw him on the card. To fill you in, Duffee has not fought since 2014 and he is only 33 years of age. Duffee had a very promising career when he started out winning his 1st 6 fights and his debut in the UFC. He then ended up suffering his first KO loss and from there had a follow-up KO loss by the hands of Alistair Overeem. Since that point in time, he continued his winning ways, but the talent pool was so thin that we really never got a really good gauge on him. He was beating guys like Anthony Hamilton and let us be honest, who doesn’t beat Anthony Hamilton. In his last fight against Frank Mir, he suffered his last loss by KO in the very 1st round and then he disappeared from MMA. If you look at him historically, all the names that mean anything in MMA (Overeem and Mir) were able to finish him off. That isn’t a knock against him at all, but it is a small indication that maybe he could have been a product of bad talent. There is no doubt that he was a specimen and a dangerous out for anyone, but he is unproven and now that he has had almost 5 years off I wonder what he has been doing, why he is coming back, and what kind of shape physically and mentally he will be in. He takes on Jeff Hughes who honestly in his own right has underperformed a bit on the big stage, but he is at least active. After being on a 4 fight win streak and getting a spot in the UFC off the contender series, he ended up dropping his debut fight against Maurice Greene in a rematch that he won the first time around. With a 10-2 record, Hughes has 4 by KO and 5 by way of decision. So I wouldn’t consider him someone that is going to walk through you but the guy is better then he showed in his debut fight coming off the contender series. My issue here with this fight is this. I would love to pick Duffee here, but how do you pick a guy that you haven’t seen nor heard from in almost 5 years. At that point, you are picking him based on 5 years ago. How can you do that? You just can’t. On the flip side, you can pick him solely based on the fact that Hughes just isn’t very good, but even then I feel like there is an integrity that you must uphold and pick a guy that has been a ghost for this long is something I just can’t do. I can totally see Duffee waxing Hughes and not be surprised about it, but I won’t take a shot in the dark on a someone we really have no idea why he is coming back to fight when he made the decision to stay away from the game for as long as he did. If you stay away for a year or so to reevaluate things or to really work on clear disadvantages, then that’s one thing. However, to be out this long is an entirely different ballgame. I need to go with the fighter that I know has been more active here.
The Pick: Hughes
Michel Pereira $9500 vs. Tristan Connelly $6700
Meh… I will keep this one short. TC is taking this fight on very short notice. Less than 1 week to be accurate. The 13-6 Fighter doesn’t really have too much to shoot from in order to get a very good bead on him but He does like top control and hunting for subs. With 9 Submissions and 4 KO’s, Tristan has never had his hand raised unless it was inside the horn. With that said, as impressive as that is, he really hasn’t fought anyone. Now he is coming in on very short notice against a guy who is a true wildcard and you really never know what he is going to pull out of the hat at any given time. MP is extremely dynamic and athletic and would more than likely clean the clocks of every name on TC’s resume. Much more of a striking dynamo, MP is going to look get fancy and creative early. With a 23-9 record, he has 10 KOS and 6 Subs. In his 9 losses, he has only been finished 2 times. This is the type of fight in which TC is going to have to really get creative to find some sort of hip entry. He can’t telegraph what he is doing because MP will time it and add him to a highlight reel. MP is extremely athletic and has a very good sense of timing. He showed that in his debut against Danny Roberts with a beautiful knee that would end the night. It is extremely hard to believe that outside of a few minutes that TC is really going to be able to hang here. Outside of him coming in on short notice, I just don’t think that he is UFC ready. They are feeding MP here and what he does with his food is up to him.
The Pick: Pereira
Uriah Hall $7100 vs. Antonio Carlos Junior $9100
Tricky fight… Uriah Hall just never panned out to what I thought he could be. Big, Athletic, extremely good striking, with very good power. The problem with Hall was that he loved to give it but really couldn’t take it all that well. I will confess that he is better than his 14-9 record, but the holes in his game are clear and it just seems like he never really evolved all that much. In 14 wins, he has finished 10 by KO, and in his 9 losses, 4 of them have been by way of KO. Hall has always been a streaky fighter. Lose 2, win 2. Lose 3 win 2. He was really never able to hold a consistent balance of wins throughout his career. In his last 10 fights, he is 5-5 and that just isn’t going to cut it when you are talking title contention. Hall is another one that when you look at his record he really beat everyone that he is supposed to beat but the minute you give him a huge opportunity, he fails. The win over Mousasi looks great on paper, but he had a little lady luck on his side. The one positive thing that he has going for him in this fight defensively is that he has never been submitted. That stat may change though when he takes on Grappling specialist ACJ. ACJ is a very high-level BJJ BlackBelt in his not shy to show that in his fighting style. With a 10-3 record, 8 of them have been by way of submission. In his 3 loses he was KO’d 1 time. ACJ was on a nice 4 fight win streak until he crossed paths in his last fight with Ian Heinisch in which he lost a decision. After watching that fight a few times, it just seemed like he couldn’t get into his pocket. ACJ is the type of fighter that really likes to control the course of action and if they push back on his grappling a bit then he could be in some trouble. However, if you give him a window he will jump through it before you can blink. Hall is going to really need to keep this standing and with a 70 percent Takedown defense it is clearly possible, but how long is he going to be able to keep ACJ off his hips. It really only takes one time for ACJ to start working and if it’s early enough in a round that can smell trouble. The key for Hall here is timing. He is going to have to really bait and time ACJ with something. Catch him clean coming in or just keep him o the end of his punches making him second guess the shot. Stay in open space and keep you back off the cage. Do not give him any situation where he can actually close distance hard and have the cage to work with while your back is against it. Hall has the tools to do this but for how long, that is my issue. I think Hall does just fine on his feet, but eventually in this fight, ACJ will begin to win it with control time on the ground. Hall may shuck off some of the attempts, but I don’t see him shucking off all of them. Depending on where these takedowns are initiated in the round will dictate how the rounds will go scoring-wise and if Hall will be able to survive the majority of a long round with someone as skilled as ACJ doing work in top control.
The Pick: ACJ
Misha Cirkunov $8000 vs. Jimmy Crute $8200
This fight can be extremely deceiving. We are all asking the same question. What in the hell happened to Misha? It seemed that he showed a form of promise as a very good fighter and not only did he drop off, but he dropped off in a very serious way. After enjoying an 8 fight win streak it seemed as if Cirk’ was on his way to do big things. Then on one night, he was absolutely merked by what seemed to be a phantom punch that would start his demise. Since then he has lost 2 of his last 3 by way of KO. He just doesn’t look the same. His confidence nor his ability. With a 14-5 record, Misha has 8 by way of submission proving that he is a very legit BJJ Black Belt. However, in his 5 losses, they have all been by way of stoppage. (3 by KO and 2 by Submission). There is no doubt that Misha has some good skills but something along the way has plagued him from pulling the trigger. If you take that and throw his durability into the mix then that can be a recipe for disaster. However, when you look at the other side of the cage you have a very young and confident Jimmy Crute that is coming in with a lot of steam, but he does lack the knowledge and the overall cage time that Misha has. So on a cerebral level, I would say even given Misha’s current woes, he is in a better spot if decisions need to be made on the shift. Crute is extremely young and raw at the ripe age of 23. He has a lot to learn in this game yet. He is going to make his mistakes and he is going to progress from there. He is yet to drop a fight and that does concern me. In his last 2 fights he showed great ability to KO Sam Alvey and to submit Paul Craig. Beating both men in their own games. I was extremely impressed, to say the least. With a record of 10-0, Crute has 4 wins by KO and 3 by Submission. A Brown Belt in BJJ, he is no stranger on the ground, but on Misha’s level of grappling, I am not too certain just yet. He hasn’t reached his “Man’s Strength” yet. Misha can put him into some spots that can be concerning on the ground. I am expecting Crute to want to keep this upright. Given the track record of Misha’s chin lately and his ability on the ground, his corner would be nuts to voice to him otherwise. Test his chin over and over again. Stuff his shots and just try and put him on weak legs. The game plan for Crute should really be Black and White. As far as Misha, it’s quite simple. Avg over 4 takedowns a fight and Crute sitting at about a 65% takedown defense, it’s safe to say that Misha can get this to the ground if he just protects his chin when doing so. I think this is Misha’s last chance here. Even tho Crute is extremely tough and a rising prospect. The writing is on the wall for Misha here. Crute is 23, he is raw and he has a lot to learn yet. That on top of being undefeated and never tasting adversity and defeat it’s all there for him to take advantage of. If he can’t get this win then I think it’s time to take Crute very seriously and let Misha go on his way. I am going to give Misha the nod here to get him back in the good graces of UFC brass and see how Crute bounces back from a loss in his young career.
The Pick: Misha
UFC FIGHT NIGHT UNDERCARD
Marcin Tybura $8400 vs. Augusto Sakai $7800
Both of these guys are similar yet different in the way they approach fights. Sakai is much more of a banging striker with a thirst to trade. With a 13-1 record, he has 10 by way of KO and he has never been finished. The former Bellator fighter is on a 4 fight win streak with 3 of them coming by way of KO. In his last fight against Arlovski, I personally thought he lost, but he ended up taking a controversial split decision. He isn’t someone that is going to really wow you. He doesn’t have anything flashy about the way he fights, He isn’t going to drag you to the ground and submit you, but what he will do is stand in the pocket and trade with you until you taste what he is serving to see if you can stand the seasoning. I am the first one to admit that his competition has not been very good at all but at the end of the day he is still winning and he is still finishing people. So that does say something about his power. However, well rounded he really is not and if you can take his out of his element than he may be able to be had quite simply. Tybura is a fighter that can, in fact, do just that. Although he has good striking and will stand with whoever tests him to. He is a very well established BJJ BlackBelt that really just doesn’t use it very much. Tybura has had his woes as of late and yes they are starting to become a bit of a concern. With a 17-5 record, he has lost 3 of his last 4 fights including his last one by way of KO. He is very well rounded with his approach obtaining 7 by KO and 6 by way of submission. In his 5 losses, 3 have been by way of KO and he has never been submitted. There is a clear path for Tybura here is he wants it and he doesn’t get baited into a firefight with the hard-hitting Sakai. One issue for me is the gas tank of Tybura. Once he starts to fade, he really starts to fade, but talent-wise, he is just the better and more rounded fighter in my eyes. I think he knows he needs this fight if he wants any shot at relevance here. If he keeps his chin tucked, avoids the oncoming traffic of Sakai and can get this to the ground where he can rest and work at his own pace then he does have the chops to win this fight. I am going to pick him here with a very skeptical eye but I do see this as a fight he can certainly win.
The Pick: Tybura
Cole Smith $7600 vs. Miles Johns $8600
Both guys are undefeated so someones “0” must go. Johns has a clear pattern to his fighting. From what I noticed in his film study is that he really has extremely clean and smooth hip entries with very good wrestling. The issue with him is that he will not just commit to his wrestling and his entries. He tends to really feel his way on the feet because he does have decent standup. However, if you really understand striking, he does throw the same patterns in his pursuit, So they can become extremely readable. However, what he does do is press forward in spots looking to get your hands up defensively and then dial in on your hips with extremely deep shots. He does understand how to tie his striking and wrestling together which can really confuse a guy like Smith. Smith reminds me of Johns and he as well has decent striking and ties his wrestling together well, but in the grand scheme of it all, he really just isn’t as good as Johns at any one thing. I feel like Johns is going edge him and get to spots a little quicker and sharper. The thing with Smith is that I will dare to say that he will be the one pushing forward more. He will be the one more than likely to take the first shot, but his shots are not as clean unless he has you backed up against the cage where he can change levels, adjust, get his position and drop you. Johns can shot cleaner and quicker in space and against the cage. I feel like Johns will neutralize the pressure with defensive wrestling and turn the tide on Smith putting him on his back. This can be a seesaw battle of takedowns, but in the end, Johns is just the cleaner fighter and cleaner wrestler that should control the clock better. He stays Undefeated as Cole Smith drops a very close decision.
The Pick: Johns
Brad Katona $8900 vs. Hunter Azure $7300
This fight is interesting and I really don’t agree with the price here. Katona is a very cerebral fighter with good standup, decent grappling and a good gas tank. My only issue with Katona is his camp. I tell you guys over and over again that SBG is just not a good camp. I really try to get away from them unless your name is Dillon Danis or Conor. The thing with Katona that makes him different from many fighters is that he is extremely intelligent, so wherever he trains he is going to get the most of what he is absorbing. With an 8-1 record, Katona is much more of a points fighter with 5 of 8 of his wins coming by way of decision. In his one loss, he has never been finished. In his loss to Davishvilli who has a relentless wrestling game and just clearly flustered Katona in that fight. He will be facing a similar style here in Azure, so you wonder how he will handle this the second time around. At 7-0 coming off the contender series, Azure puts a really good pace on and can really put on a wrestling clinic if you let him catch stride. Here is where it gets interesting for me. I keep saying how intelligent Katona is so he should really be able to make the adjustments needed to wrestle defensively enough to keep this upright. This is going to be a true test of just how cerebral he is and how willing he is to make these adjustments. This is a fight that can be super lopsided either way or super close. At the end of the day, I need to lean on the SBG kid in which I never thought I would do given how much I despise that camp talent-wise. I just think he is smart enough to make the adjustments needed to pull out a win here.
The Pick: Katona
Chas Skelly $7500 vs. Jordan Griffin $8700
Chaz Skelly is one of those guys that when you see his resume on paper as of late it really doesn’t speak well for him as a fighter. With a 17-4 total record, Skelly has lost 3 of his last 5 and his last 2 straight. He hasn’t really fought to his potential and that is a bit concerning because you wonder if it is a confidence thing, he isn’t evolving, or he is just starting to fall off a shelf. Skelly is best served when he is committing to his wrestling where he can start to fish for submissions in the process. With 10 submissions in 17 wins, it’s clear where he likes the fight to go and when he has a bead on you and feels the momentum of getting his way, he is quite effective. In Griffen’s debut off of the Contender Series, he was taken down 4 times by Dan Ige, so there is a clear path for Skelley if he is smart enough to take it. Griffin is going to look to keep things upright and test Skelly there. The hopeful thing is that Griffin actually starts to get off a bit and Skelly realizes he needs to get this off the feet and onto the ground. He will need to still be careful when doing so. Griffin is fairly athletic and does a very good job changing positions while in the shift of position. So if Skelly is not tight and mechanically aware in his approach, he can be easily reversed where Griffin has a pretty god top control game. One thing I do like about Griffin is that he really understands how to keep people at the end of his punches and kicks, making his reach appear to be more of a problem then it should be. Skelly will need to be patient, pick and choose his spots and time the shot of the exchange in order to really get in deep. This is a really close fight in which I can see both of these men having their spots but If Skelly can control the pace and terms of this fight with just old school fundamental heavy hipped wrestling then he should be able to do enough to surprise some people. Give me the slight dog here. People may be sleeping on this fella a little too much.
The Pick: Skelly
Louis Smolka $9200 vs. Ryan MacDonald $7000
Smolka is a very very interesting guy. Not outside of the cage but inside the cage. Some fights he shows shades of very good abilities and then there are times he just looks like he doesn’t belong there. You really just don’t know what Smolka you will get. This is a guy that has had a host of issues outside of the cage with alcohol and other things. He is one of those guys that has a ton of talent but still tends to not be consistent with his ability. Anytime you see Smolka at over $9k, it is a scary proposition because you never know where he is mentally and if he is dialed in or not. Smolka is best known for his grappling and scrambling ability. He has a very fluent movement on the ground and he does some very nice things when the grappling exchanges are moving. When he plays in his guard, he really is just comfortable there and that really just bothers me. So in order for him to really be effective, he needs to have a flowing exchange where the pace just isn’t stuck in the mud. MacDonald is the guy that will give him that movement that he likes. With a 10-1 record, he has 3 wins by KO and 3 by way of submission, but his record is extremely padded and it shows. In his debut fight against Chris Gutierrez, he was stripped of his perfect record in somewhat convincing fashion. He is long and rangy but really doesn’t have hands that should be feared all too much. Smolka should really own the grappling exchanges and I think he should be able to close distance on McDonald to get things started on the ground. I am expecting Smolka to feel MacDonald on the feet, but in the end, he is going to look and take this to the ground, where he should really own the transitions putting MacDonald in some very tough spots. The problem is, I say “Should” because you really don’t know who you are going to get. Smolka is very Jekyll and Hyde-like, as I said before. I can tell you this. He will be low owned because people really just don’t trust him, so in GPP where he has clear upside for a submission, I would consider him as a pivot to some of the more popular high tagged guys.
The Pick: Smolka
Kyle Prepolec $7400 vs. Austin Hubbard $8800
I am not into this fight for a few reasons. So I will keep it fairly short because it’s dangerous. Austin Hubbard dropped his last fight against Davi Ramos but he did hold his own for the most point in the perspective that he was able to survive. I wouldn’t consider him a bad fighter, but I really don’t view him as a fighter that will ever really amount to much under the UFC umbrella. At 10-3 he has 4KOs, 2 Subs, and 4 Decisions. Despite his 6 finishes, he doesn’t really push as hard as I was expecting, watching his film. He does push forward, but he pushes with caution which will make him look slower then he is. I will say that his combos against the cage are nice considering he does go to the body which is a lost art these days. He throws wide and he does throw a little wild, but he also throws his punches with the intent to really dig in. On a full camp, he takes on very short notice replacement and hometown Canadian Kyle Prepolec. Prepolec comes in after dropping his debut to Nordine Taleb by decision and at 12-6 he has 7 KOs and 3 Submissions. In his 6 loses he has been submitted 2 times and has never been knocked out. This is where it gets very dangerous for me. Even tho Prepolec is coming in on late notice, he still is a fellow Canadian. So if this goes to the cards in a lower skill level match, you wonder where they will lean. I never liked last-minute replacement fights because you are gam planning for A and then you end up getting B. But at this level of MMA, there is really nothing that is so over the top that can’t be adjusted on the fly. I think Hubbard training in elevation and coming in on a full camp he should get this done. Do I trust it tho? Not a chance….
The Pick: Hubbard
Sanchez vs Vettori (Cancelled) 🙁
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DRAFTKINGS
Gathje is very hittable and Cerrone is accurate enough to take advantage of that. He will have to do it early before JG starts to really go into Zombie mode and starts dragging this fight into hell. I am picking against Cerrone here but at $7200 you just can’t fade Cerrone totally here, but I am not expecting him to win.
$9k is a big price against Cerrone, but in a 5 round fight where he looks to finish in every fight. He finishes this fight he covers. Get some JG!
I am picking against him here in a very close fight but the value on him has very good upside. Tex is pushing 40 but he still has the skills to be on the winning lineup.
I don’t like his price here. I think he edges the fight, but Tex is so durable despite what people think. He is really going to have to work here and $8500 scares me a bit.
Duffee $7900 / Hughes $8300
I think someone gets KO’d here and it’s important to be on the right side. I am leaning Hughes just because of the huge layoff. However, the dude has power and he does not like to dance late into the fight. So fading him is foolish. I would play this both ways but I am leaning Hughes with more weight.
He is really expensive at $9500, but he has that dynamic ability that he can literally end the fight before you put your beer back on the coaster. Expensive? Yes. Playable? Yes. I wouldn’t go hard but I am will have some for sure. Especially that price tag may scare some people.
I’m off him here.
Hall is such an odd fighter to trust… However, he can be a slate breaker and at $7100 he is really hard to ignore. I think ACJ wins this fight but the upside Hall has with his power is always something that just can’t be ignored. I am not saying to latch on to him on a bunch of lineups, But he is worth a few stabs in the hopes he can possibly land something on ACJ. I am not expecting it but he does have upside.
I like him to win the fight, but $9100 is uffff. I am not too sure how I feel about this. I will tell you this. There are 2 reasons that I will have a few flyers on him: 1) his submission upside and 2) people will more than likely be wary of him in this spot. With that said they will not be comfortable plays but plays you need to have small faith in when playing large formatted GPPS. tread but tread very lightly and hope he takes a limb home.
Cirkunov $8000 / Crute $8200
Ok look, I will be honest with you here. I am going to go a little heavier than normal on Cirk in this spot than I normally would on a fight priced like this. Usually, a fight that is priced at a balance I tend to keep it as such with a very slight lean to my choice. However, as much as I like where Crute is going, I really have a feeling that Cirk has all the paths to win this fight and if he does, I believe more of the field will be on Crute. So I am going heavier than normal on Cirk but I will surely back myself up with some Crute.
Ufff. Something tells me that Tybura is going to make me regret picking him. I feel it and that is why I am so hesitant here in choosing him in any lineups. I will have him in very small spots maybe, but this fight is so dicey for me and he just can’t be trusted.
Sakai’s upside here is a KO when Tybura gasses which he tends to do. But this fight is, for the most part, a really tough fight that I want to lean a little more on Sakai’s upside for the KO but I won’t be heavy on this fight at all.
Good wrestling with upside but I just don’t think he is clean enough to keep up with Johns here. I wouldn’t put it past him to put on a good pace for a while, but once Johns gets going, I think it’s his fight to win. I don’t hate it but this is one that I may let pass me by and eat crow if I am wrong.
He has the ability to really string some good takedowns together if he catches his stride. I think he will concentrate on keeping the pressure of smith off him out of the gate but if he does get his wrestling going then he can hold some really good value down the stretch. I am interested.
Fight scares me. Big price tag for Katona. I will pass.
Azure has some really good wrestling chops and I am expecting him to lose this fight to Katona, but at $7300 if he can secure some takedowns and control where Katona is weak then things may get dicey on the cards. I won’t be fading him because there is value here but he is not my pick to win.
I like Skelly here. I think his ground game is clean enough to really just weigh on Griffin late. His price tag is right and if he knows what’s good for him, he will go ground and go ground at all costs to test Griffin in deep water. I am really interested here.
Bold statement here but I am fading him. I am picking him to lose, but even if he wins, Skelly won’t make it easy. This is a tough price on a tough fight. Fade.
Ahhhhh. Let’s fear the $9200 price tag for Mr. Jekyll and Hyde. You never know what you will get from Smolka and I am not expecting huge ownership. With that said I will be pivoting on him in spots because I do think that he has the upside for a submission here.
Prepolec $7400 / Hubbard $8800
I’m fading this fight…. Really not interested in these guys.
VEGAS: Going Lite today. Not much Value out there. I did my best to dog some decent ones out. You can play anyone of my predictions, these are just the ones I feel have the best value for the money. Play responsible this week.
1.6 to Win 1
1 Units to win 105
Misha Cirkunov +105
1 unit to win 105
(Good Value here. Worth it)
.5 to win .75
UFC FIGHT NIGHT PRIZE PICKS
Gaethje over 93
Crute under 63
See how MadLab did for UFC 242!