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Henry Cejudo $7,300 vs. T.J. Dillashaw $8,900
When we talk about mastering one element of combat sports, you can really look at that as an open-ended question. What defines mastering? Well, what if I told you that mastering one element may not be as strong as mastering the coupling of many elements into a masterful balance? Confused? You won’t be shortly. Henry Cejudo comes with one of the highest honors you can achieve in a selective sport. The youngest American gold medalist in the 2008 Olympics in freestyle wrestling. After retiring from wrestling In 2012, Cejudo decided to use his extremely high wrestling pedigree as a foundation to begin his quest in the MMA arena. Like any player with a superb pedigree in one element, he would lean on his wrestling to just outclass the opposition to victory until he had other elements that he could lean on. In all of my years of being in the thick of it all, the clear pattern getting a solid well rounded balanced game out of someone with such high pedigree in one form of combat was extremely hard to extract. When you are that well versed in one thing, human instinct will always take you back to your comfort zone. It’s just built within our genetic code to do so. Cejudo showed shades of being quite different as his resume grew. After his split decision loss to Joe-B, it was clear to me that despite his loss, he was turning a corner. His striking looked extremely sharp, which was a clear indication that he was keeping his Wrestling in his back pocket with a firm concentration on his striking. His next two fights against Wilson Reis and Sergio Pettis confirmed my theory even further where he was clearly using sharp in and out striking until he could get them to bite offering him a clear hip entry. It all came to a complete head when he pulled off the biggest upset of 2018, defeating one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in Demetrious Johnson and capturing UFC Gold. The thing that makes a Cejudo so special is that when you are fighting someone with an Olympian wrestling pedigree, you need to always be very wary of the takedown. Now if you throw in a sharp striking game on top of it, you need to defend 2 levels which can be very tricky and confusing. It really gives you pause to commit to just one thing. If you shoot for his hips, the chances are he is going to outwrestle you and if you commit to a firefight than you are leaving your hips exposed for him to put a bead on your them and take it to the streets. Cejudo is becoming a riddle. A riddle that is not easily solved. Coming from a striking background, I remember what it was like training with wrestlers, and for a long time, it was hell on earth. Then I made the conscious decision to take my game to the ground. At that point, I could either neutralize them or take a limb home with me if they dared to dance with me there. Wrestling is all about advancing position, where BJJ is about getting in and out of positions while finishing the opposition. The proof of that is in Cejudos resume in which In 15 fights none of them have been by the way of submission. Wrestlers also have a tendency of leading with their heads, exposing their necks for the taking during entry, which a very solid submission pedigree could sniff out quite quickly. However, Cejudo has never been submitted in his career which shows us that his entries are well timed and he has an Arsenal of takedowns and trips at his disposal. He has also shown the ability to pack a punch when he does click the button, with 5 of his 13 wins coming by way of KO. He is going to need every tool in the shed to have success against the man standing across from him when those cage doors close on Saturday night. Now getting back to what defines mastery. While Cejudo has mastered the art of Wrestling, TJ Dillashaw has mastered the art of shaping the perfect well-rounded wheel of MMA. A perfect balance of wrestling, grappling, speed, striking, cage IQ, defensive reads, setting traps, creating angles, and just controlling the dynamics of the dance. The mastery that he holds is the ability to put it all together in a cerebral game of chess until he dials in waiting for you to make a mistake where he checkmates you. Don’t get me wrong, I have seen holes in TJs game as well. He can become overzealous in firefights, get caught and out on roller skates, but more times than not TJ is one step ahead in his approach. His ability to mask, bait and trap is extremely cerebral and in order to beat him, you truly need to catch him with something in order to cloud his sharp thinking which will make him fight in survival mode. Putting him into survival mode will disengage his sharp thinking making him vulnerable for at least a short period of time while opening a window to capitalize. However, this is where things get tricky. When you talk about windows and rocking him briefly, the common theory to that is being able to hold the power to do so. TJ has only been starched once by a hard-hitting young Jon Dodson. TJ is coming down in weight here and although people assume that the extra weight cutting could hinder his cardio, I would argue that Cejudo being the smaller fighter will not pose the power threat enough to open that window on TJ. Cejudo improved greatly on his feet but not enough to be slicker then TJ. He doesn’t understand the angles or the science as well. Creating angles and openings is a huge factor in stand up. Cejudo will need to rely on his wrestling to gain control time on TJ in which he can very well do, but what will he do when he gets it there? With no submissions under his belt, I find it highly unlikely that he will be able to capture his first submission against the one we call “Killashaw.” I’m expecting this to be a very competitive fight, but in the end, I think TJ will be able to just out think Cejudo more. At some point in any fight, if given long enough, adjustments need to be made. Cejudo has his bag of tools that may be deep, but eventually, in a 5 round fight against a technician, Dillashaw just has more tools in his bag to play with. As the fight travels into the later minutes, a shift in balance will start leaning in Dillashaw's favor. He should have his opportunities to frustrate Cejudo enough to jump through some windows for a finish but even if he doesn’t, he should do enough to get this done if the weight cut doesn’t spill him over and puncture a hole in his gas tank to drastic levels. I don’t see that being an issue here with his known work ethic. TJ and coach Ludwig turn and face each other and bow to showing their supreme loyalty and respect to each other while they capture another strap as a team. In life, the most powerful thing to embrace when accomplishing anything is the love and loyalty of the right people. Without that, you are in a very lonely and dark place. These two have formulated such trust in each other that will be very hard to beat. And new…..
The Pick: “Killashaw”
Greg Hardy $9,500 vs. Allen Crowder $6,700
Not too sure why this is the Co-Main event but it is what it is. The reason I say that is because neither of these guys comes in with any talent, but Hardy comes in with a name, so what does that tell you? That this is a business chess move on the UFC’s part. From a business standpoint, where does Crowder winning this fight do anything for the UFC? It does absolutely nothing. So that is a clear cut indication that the UFC is setting the stage for a hopeful Hardy win. The problem is that they can really throw whoever they want at you, but you still have to win. With only 3 fights under his belt, Hardy is debuting in his UFC debut. That is a ton of pressure for a guy that really outside of power and athletic ability, has no chops in the cage. However, Crowder is not a gazelle in the cage and he presents a style that fits Greg Hardy well. He doesn’t move around, he is not a man that utilizes head movement, and he likes to play a game that Is the only decent element of Hardy’s overall skill set. Both of these are going to be looking to bang with no real talent pool. With that said Hardy is the better athlete, the stronger fighter, the bigger puncher and just the Alpha of the two. The record of Crowder makes him seem a little more dangerous then he actually is. At 9-3 he has 5 by KO, 3 but Submission and 1 by decision. However, in his 3 losses, he has been KO’d all 3 times. Even tho Hardy is only 3-0, he will be facing a guy that really just walks forward and wants to trade. Something that not many people will be able to do with Hardy unless they move around and change angles which Crowder does not do. Sure, Crowder can go for a desperation takedown attempt, but Hardy is a good athlete and has speed for a heavyweight of his stature so stuffing weak shots or muscling his back off the cage probably won’t be in an issue in the opening frame. I say the opening frame because we have no idea what Hardy has deep in a fight and even if he does have some decent gas, will the pressures of the debuting fight of on the big stage be too much for him if he finds himself in unchartered territory causing a bit of panic or adrenaline dump. Very possible indeed. However, the cards are laid out here and it is clear that the UFC has much more to gain in him winning than losing. The matchmakers are the matchmakers for a reason and they are feeding him a chance to have a successful debut.
The Pick: Greg Hardy
Gregor Gillespie $9,400 vs. Yancy Medeiros $6,800
This fight seems a little more intriguing on paper than it seems to me up close. I like Yancy. I think he is a very dangerous fighter and very cerebral in his approach. He is going to be the bigger and rangier fighter in there and when you have a fighter like Yancy facing off against a very hard paced grinding wrestler like Gillespie then his only want is for Gillespie to get reckless and leave a window open. His patients and his well seasoned striking could allow Gregor to walk into something sharp giving him the opportunity to start his march, but all of this is easier said than with a guy as tightly wound in his craft like “the gift.” Solid standup and a super high pedigree wrestling game that avg. about 7 takedowns per affair is a clear indication that he doesn’t believe in letting you breathe in there. He will put on a pace that is smothering and will not give up until he gets what he wants, and that is solid position on the ground where his grappling chops are not of a fish out of water. In 5 UFC outings, he has 2 by way of submission. 2 by way of KO and 1 that went to the cards. The guy is really a gift, and providing his chin holds up, we can be dealing with a monster in the division. He will have to be cautious to an extent. Don’t stray from the style but stay right and not get reckless where Yancy can bait you to walk into something. Keep the fight close in distance and keep a body on him which will hinder Yancy from having any room to open up in space. Which can be a problem for anyone. I just can’t see it. Any way I look at it, I see Gillespie like a magnet just stuck to him glue for 3 rounds not allowing him to get his timing, rhythm, or game plan flowing in any way. He may have his spots off the break and if Gillespie decides to test his chops there, but the minute Gillespie crashes the pocket, even if he doesn’t take Yancy down who has a pretty good takedown defense. He could stall him against the cage taking away the cage control time. Overall, I just think it’s the pace that is going to beat Yancy here. The constant pressure and the ability to do it for the entire fight. It’s hard to pick against a guy like that and with those capabilities.
The Pick: Gregor Gillespie
Dustin Ortiz $7,200 vs. Joseph Benavidez $9,000
This is a fight is really going to be premised on what JoeB shows up. In JoeB’s come back fight, he looked slow; he looked like he lost his explosion, and he just didn’t look like he really had a heart for the cage anymore. I say that because this is a guy that fought The Who’s who of great fighters and wither beat them or raised Caine for the most part. This is a guy that lost only to DJ 2 times and Cruz 2 times. Then comes back and loses to Sergio Pettis. That was not a good sign. However, he then comes back in his last fight and looked like he was channeling the old JoeB. So where does he go from here? What JoeB will we see? Is he back? Or will we see him in spots now? I am going to say that he isn’t dead just yet and that his injury coupled with some cage rust was the issue in his first fight back. He is going to need to keep that momentum going against a very high-pressure fighter and adamant wrestler in Dustin Ortiz. Ortiz isn’t one to shy away from a firefight but he tends to reach into his back pocket for a takedown when he is losing ground on the feet. Therefore if you have good footwork and have the ability to keep this standing and frustrate him, you can really pressure him back to make him swing and fight in desperation making him sloppy. The key here to this fight is how elusive JoeB can be on his knee and his ability to keep space, stuff the shot, and maybe turn the powers against him possibly securing the takedowns on his own late. The difference in concern for JoeB and Ortiz for me is much different here. JoeB I fear he will not carry over his last performance, but my bigger concern is Ortiz making mistakes out of frustration and that is always a bigger fear for me because JoeB is a cerebral fighter and will capitalize on that. In a fight that can be close and competitive, that can be the X-factor for me here, and it actually is the X-factor here. Give me JoeB.
The Pick: JoeB
Paige VanZant $8,400 vs. Rachael Ostovich $7,800
This fight holds a little more value than the names on it. Ostovich took headlines by storm when her significant other best her to a point of breaking her orbital bone. Controversy then swirled around this card about why dana white would have a fighter like Greg Hardy on a card with her after being accused of the same things. However, the focus on the fight should really just be the fight itself. Paige was marketed extremely potent and a major cause for it was her girl next door look and people could really relate to her from a marketing standpoint. She had enough chops to cell and even in spots that she just wasn’t a pretty face, but would get bloodied up, get dirty and fight on. However, she isn’t a very good fighter and even tho she can be dynamic at times, I just don’t find her as a top-level competitor. Ostovich is in the same boat in a sense but we haven’t seen a huge body of work from her just yet. She has shown good wrestling and the ability to grapple quite well. I would say that stand up is an outfit that fits her like her bikinis but she is serviceable enough to get into spots that she wants. The key here to this fight for me is you can throw records out of the window and you can throw body of work out the window as well. This is going to be premised on who gets what that want, how often, and how soon. Paige is going to want to stay on the outside. Stick and move while playing the point game while Throwing in some dynamic kicks and striking patterns. Speed. Speed. Speed. Ostovich is going to want to seek out her hips quickly and see if she can get this ground where I feel she can get too heavy on Paige. Paige can be slippery on the ground at times so really centering her weight and advancing position methodically will be key here I think she does that. I think she gains the control time she needs in enough spots to get the nod. I think both women are fighting for something here. Paige obviously to prove that she really does belong but Ostovich has a message of her own. I think she is fighting for women in this one. I think she has a clear message she wants to give. A prepared speech and that will only be heard of she wins the fight and is interviewed at the final horn.
The Pick: Ostovich
Glover Teixeira $8,300 vs. Karl Roberson $7,900
Roberson is a late replacement in this fight and I’m not sure the style matches him well. He is a good striker. A long striker. One with a good kickboxing pedigree but he is facing a veteran that has his ducks in a row on the feet and the ground and he will also be taking this fight at Light Heavyweight where Glover will enjoy the fruits of being a veteran in that weight class. The funny thing about Roberson is that he really is primarily a striker but he actually has more subs then KOs (3 Subs 2 KOs). So it does show that he has the ability on the ground. However, that ability won’t be good enough against a very high-level grappler in Glover. With a solid stand up and veteran tricks up his sleeve, he will most likely try and test the chops of Roberson in his world. Being the natural LightHeavy coupled with very good groundwork, Tex should be able to get this fight where he wants it. The issue here is that he is getting older now. He looks a little shopworn and it is starting to show. However, he never goes quietly into the night. Glover comes to fight every outing and win or lose, you know you were in a fight. As shopworn as he is, it is really hard for me to believe that on short notice and bumping up a weight class for this one that Roberson is going to be ready for what Glover brings to the table. Maybe on a full camp, I would think a bit differently, but I don’t think Roberson is the guy to come in like this and beat Glover unless he clips him which is possible, but I can’t bank on that.
The Pick: Glover
Alexander Hernandez $8,600 vs. Donald Cerrone $7,600
When I heard about this fight I was torn. I feel like I discovered Hernandez in a sense. When he came in on last minute notice to fight against Dariush I told everyone to be very very careful with this kid. There is something about him that I liked. Sure enough, one of the biggest dogs on the card breaks the slate for us and the book was written from there. I’m obviously all in on this kid when it comes to his future as a fighter but Cerrone is a very tricky fighter to figure out these days. Extremely good striker with a grappling game that is s slick as they come. Stand up with him and you will need to watch for kicks being tied into attacks that will keep you honest, and if you decide to go ground, then 1 mistake can cause you to be hooked up. The problem with Cerrone these days is he has become quite fragile in spots. I say spots because lately he has looked very good and has shown shades of His old self. With that said he still had that fragile aspect of his game that we have seen numerous times as well. So where is his weakness these days, and can Hernandez expose that? Well, Cerrone hates to be pressured. He hates to fight off his back foot and doesn’t really handle it all the well. He will fight to keep you off him opposed to meet you in the middle to see what gives. When Cerrone gets pressured you can actually see it in his face that it is an uncomfortable spot for him. He is facing a kid with relentless pressure and great cardio. He is going to push him back from the opening horn and he is not a kid that fears star status, becomes star struck, or looks across the cage at anyone thinking that he is fighting a high caliber household name. He doesn’t seem to be built that way. He seems to have extremely high confidence in himself and his ability and at a young age with the power, genetics, speed, and know how that he has, that is far ahead of his time. It’s a dangerous fight for him, without a doubt, but it’s a fight in which I think he wins and really makes a name for himself here. I rode this kid from his debut fight and I’m rolling with him again. His high-pressure wrestling is going to be too much for Cerrone here.
The Pick: Hernandez
Ariane Lipski $8,800 vs. Joanne Calderwood $7,400
It is really odd to put beads on Calderwood. She is such a skilled fighter that clearly has the talent and the mindset to be a top flight fighter, but it seems as if she beats everyone that she should beat and then once she takes on that upperclassmen type, she tends to drop the ball. I would say that her Achilles heel is her grappling. It seems that if you can somehow get her to the streets, you can cause her trouble there. This is a common theme when you are dealing with a high pedigree striker such as Calderwood and vice versa. However, her striking and her ability to eat as much as she takes gives her a real leg up when she is able to keep you standing. She is taking on very highly touted Ariane Lipski. I agree to an extent with her hype, but you know me, I don’t buy in fully to the hype until you show me. This is her first opportunity to do so, and I am looking forward to seeing how she handles this matchup. Lipski is very well rounded coming into this fight. Good power in both hands, she ties her combos together very well, puts on a good amount of pressure and does have a sort grappling game. She will be the aggressor here and that does scare me a bit against a polished striker like Calderwood. She is going to bring pressure and Calderwood will most likely sit back far enough to keep it standing but pick and choose her spots while waiting for an opening. Lipski really shouldn’t play this game with here. She should look to get in on the hips early and at least try to secure the first round with control. I say this because you're not just going to finish Calderwood. You need to outwork her. UNLESS you can submit her like she has shown the ability to get caught in the past. So if that is the path that she shows, then why not take your flyer there and you have 2 options at that point. Shoot for subs and see if something sticks or win the control time game and win the round. Standing up with Calderwood is never a good idea under in the grand scheme of it because anytime you are giving a fighter what they want, you are not making them earn it. This can really go one of 2 ways. Calderwood can keep this standing and make this extremely interesting or Lipski can commit to taking Calderwood's firepower away by taking this to the ground. I am going to lean on the later. I think Lipski is another fighter that understands what works and what doesn’t in situations and spots. However, she does tend to commit to one early. Let’s hope it’s the ground.
The Pick: Lipski
Alonzo Menifield $9,100 vs. Vinicius Moreira $7,100
This is a very big contrast in styles here. On one end you have Menefield who is an explosive striker that to plants and uncork until something lands. Very good power with both hands and uses his athletic ability make his striking look a little farther along than it actually is. However, his process has worked up until now. With a 7-0 record, he has 6 by way of KO and 1 by way of submission. So he isn’t one to need the judges, which is nice to see, especially in a world where judges have not been all that trustworthy as of late. In a stand-up affair, unless you are a seasoned striker, standing in the pocket with Menefield is a dangerous land mine to stand on. He is going to hesitate and explode and not many people are ready for that. However, his ground game is something we must be concerned with and I am not certain that we can trust him on such a small body of work there. He will be facing a very submission heavy fighter here in Moriea in which holds a 9-1 record with 8 wins by way of submission. The problem on his side is that his stand up really lacks, so his end game is getting you to the ground and working from there. So the contrast of styles will tell us that it will be a game of who gets what they want first. When you are on the ground it’s one thing but there is an initial component of getting it there before you can even start your craft. I’m not sure it’s going to be easy. Menefield by all areas is the more athletic fighter and should be able to at least stop the shot early. But that early avoidance could be all he needs to find his mark and spark Moriea spark out. However, if he can’t avoid the takedowns then he could find himself doing the ole Tap-a-rooni. I’m more comfortable with picking Menefield here tho.
The Pick: Menifield
Cory Sandhagen $9,300 vs. Mario Bautista $6,900
Thai fight can be closer than expected, but the more I watch film, the more form in my stance I go. Sandhagen is one of those heavy strikers that had a very relentless approach. Even tho his striking is crafty, it is very to the point and he looks to apply pressure, unlike many strikers who are crafty like to pick and choose their spots. He doesn’t waste all that much time in his reads. He will work the body, he will work the head and he will level change quickly to start grounding and pounding in a very wicked way if you let him. He has shown the ability to be very well rounded in his approach but the approach is more important sometimes than the actual setting when it’s where you want it. What I mean by that is that you can be the greatest hell on earth power but if you don’t have the approach to let it find its mark then it’s useless. You can have an amazing submission game, but if you can’t get it to that spot in your approach then it’s pointless. Sandhagen has the approaches and finds ways to get to your body, get to your head, and get you your hips and that is dangerous for any fighter. Bautista is taking this a fairly short notice and although he is a lab guy in which come in usually very prepared, it is an uphill climb for him here. Much better versed on the ground then he is on the feet, he is going to have to really take what Sandhagen gives him and I would expect Sandhagen to want to keep this standing until Bautista is vulnerable enough to maybe suck down into that dark ground and pound world. 3 weeks. 2 weeks. 1 week's notice. It doesn’t matter when it comes to the lab, because they are always well prepared, but I think this fight is one that really needs to be prepared for further. Sandhagen style is a hard one to lay a bead on and I think as the rounds go on, he is able to really pick his spots and wear down the Lab fighter with crisp standup. Slick setups and just an overall more active and aggressive body of work here.
The Pick: Sandhagen
Dennis Bermudez $8,000 vs. TE Edwards $8,200
When you look at this fight there is no argument for me when people are leaning heavy on TE Edwards here. The kid is young, spry, fast, powerful, and will never bow out of a pocket fight. At 6-2 Te has all 6 of his wins coming by way of KO. He is going to look to bounce back in a big way after his KO loss to Madge. You're not going to look at Edwards resume and really be impressed with the quality of opposition that he has faced because he hasn’t faced anyone of note. With that said he does show clear cut talent and athletic ability to build on. However, he is fighting Dennis Bermudez that is showing his trends very much right now but he is still coming to fight and he is fighting hard. With a 16-9 record, Bermudez is much more of a decision machine with more than half of his wins coming by way of decision. He will utilize his wrestling to grind you as much as possible taking away your ability to really open up on him. Even tho he has been on a bit of a digressing wheel, he is still a polished vet that isn’t easily walked upon. He has only been KOd 2 times in his career and for the most part is pretty durable. With that said, TE is going to be looking for that haymaker KO and it is going to be Bermudez’s mission to hunt for his hips before he can do so. I am expecting Edwards to be able to elude some takedowns early and maybe even escape if they are secured at some point with his athletic ability, but I think if Bermudez just embraces that wrestling is his key to victory here and dedicates himself to it then you can see him pull this off. I think Bermudez knows that he needs to start tying fights together at this point. There aren’t many rooms for error with him any longer and if he can take away TE’s range of power than he will have a very good chance I’m winning this fight. I have a hunch about this one. I like TE as a blooming fighter, but I think Bermudez uses his wrestling and shows the kid where he needs to work going forward, which will only make TE more well rounded and better. Learning experience maybe in this one? I’ll buy into that.
The Pick: Bermudez
Belal Muhammad $7,700 vs. Geoff Neal $8,500
I like Belal as a fighter but the thing that bothers me about him is that he is not a killer. He is the type of fighter that is going to be totally content with doing enough to win and just staying a bit safe. I don’t disagree with that mantra at all, but if he wants to really put himself on the map, then he is going to have to really start applying more into trying to finish his opponent. He is very calculated in his Approach and he will not just give you what you want. You really need to extract it from him. You need to push him into spots in which he feels very uncomfortable and vulnerable. If you can do that then you have a very good chance in baiting him into something that he wasn’t planning on engaging upon. He is for the most part well rounded and you don’t need to fear too much where the fight goes. He understands all elements of the game in its entirety, but his lack of pressure and yearn to finish can ultimately cost him down the road. This approach may be the one he wants to utilize against someone like Neal tho. A very powerful striker that if you don’t really mind you spots than he can catch you in a very very big way. With a 10-2 record, he has 6 KO’s to his merit. I wouldn’t consider him very well rounded at all but he will not be looking to do anything else but bang. So what is going to be Belal’s poison here? If he stands in the pocket with Neal then it is safe to say that he has a high probability of getting put spark out. I just don’t think he could be that dumb. I think he understands that he is the more well-rounded fighter. I think he understands that he needs to really use his striking as a means to an end for testing Neals Wrestling. It is safe and effective. Bring a heavy hitter to the floor and a heavy hitter they are no more. I think Belal may actually test his chops on the feet with neal but as soon as he looks to open up, I think he will see that Neas power is real and the game will then change to getting out of hell's kitchen. Dangerous fight, but I am going with the savvy craftsmanship of Belal here to do enough to keep Neal at bay.
The Pick: Belal
Chance Rencountre $7,500 vs. Kyle Stewart $8,700
I’m not spending too much time here because quite honestly, I don’t see how this pricing makes sense. I don’t see how Stewart is this much of a favorite here Both men have their shares of holes but Stewart is much more of a puncher and he does have a decent ground game but it isn’t anything that really impresses me positional wise. As far as Chance, he is going to put on that grinding pace that isn’t sound and quite sloppy. It is not a fight that I am overly thrilled about, and it is not a fight that I would invest too heavily in, however, I think that Kyle Stewart is going to have success getting this to the floor. How long he will able to keep it there remains to be seen, but I def think that could be a big part of this one. I am honestly expecting a sloppy fight but in the end, Stewart should be able to do enough on the cards to beat Chance in which ultimately gave him some problems in the past.
The Pick: Stewart
- Cejudo $7,300
The price of $7,300 is not something to shy away from totally when you are talking about the guy that Beat DJ. I will have some plugs of him Even tho I have TJ winning this fight.
- Dillashaw $8,900
Dillashaw is the type of guy you just can’t fade no matter what his price. He is just too good. I will have plenty of him here in the hopes he can secure a finish at some point.
- Greg Hardy $9,500
Hardy's price tag does scare me a bunch, and he is really self-reliant on the 1 hitter quitter. With that said, you are not going to fade him fully. I would say the UFC really wants him to win this fight to showcase him on the co-main so a few swings in hopes that he does good by their graciousness is not a bad thing, But I def would tread lightly at this price. Small taste.
- Allen Crowder $6,700
I just feel like the UFC has a plan here, and I am not willing to go against it.
- Gillespie $9,400
Even if he doesn't get the finish, he should be able to put enough pressure on Medeiros to ground him enough and rack up some points. A bit pricey, but I don’t mind it with his output.
- Medeiros $6,800
I know he is good, and he could be the first buzzsaw that Gregor runs into, but I just don’t see him avoiding that pressure.
- Dustin Ortiz $7,200
I won't be fading him totally here. The reason is not so much him, but which JoeB is going to show up. I am expecting JoeB to win this fight, but I will also back myself up lightly in case the shopworn JoeB rears his head.
- Joe Benavidez $9,000
Pricey in the $9k range against a stout pressure fighter like Ortiz, but if JoeB is JoeB, then this can be a good night for him. I'm interested.
- Paige VanZant $8,400
I am just not sold on her. I respect her, and I think she is serviceable, but not enough to drop $8,400 on her.
- Rachael Ostovich $7,800
I’m not opposed to this here. I think that we have a situation where she is fighting for something. I am not expecting her to be super popular, and that is for good reason. However, I am not afraid to take a few small swings here in a large field GPP. Don’t expect her to gain a ton of points here, but if she wins and hits value, then you have a dog with a decent shot to win that will be somewhat lower owned. I’ll take a small spoon full.
- Glover Teixeira $8,300
I actually think Glover has a good chance here. He is older and shopworn, but he is a very cerebral fighter for a big man and he def has the tools on the ground to finish this by way of submission if he avoids the big power of Roberson. I def don't hate it
- Karl Roberson $7,900
He has the power to give Glover problems, and Glover has shown 2 Glovers as of late, but I can tell you this. He is not going quietly into the night, and Roberson is going to have to earn it. I will take a taste due to the KO potential here, but I still think Glover takes this.
- Alexander Hernandez $8,600
I know, I know…. Here comes Madlab Biased. I feel like I found this kid, and I am not willing to put my guns down on him. Dangerous fight for him, without a doubt, but I am riding this kid until he loses. Even if it's against someone like a somewhat resurging Cowboy.
- Donald Cerrone $7,600
How can you really fade him totally? It's Cowboy. With that said, I will not have much of him at all. I am going deeper on Hernandez here. I would def back yourself up with some Cerrone in case he humbles the young lion.
- Lipski $8,800
Her price seems a bit pricey, and it probably is. But she has the ability to finish with her crazy volume and power; Calderwood is also very durable. So you have an opportunity to gain ground with either a finish or a decision. I'm taking some chances on her.
- Calderwood $7,400
I'm staying away from JoJo here. I know she has a great chance to win this fight, but she just doesn’t do much for me from a style and flash standpoint. She throws hard and she has very good stand up, but she can be bullied, and that is what's scares me for her here. With that said, she is very durable, and at $7,400, her price tag is a bit intriguing. I can understand why you would want to take a flyer on her, but it is something I will just avoid personally.
- Menifield $9,100
If he has the ability to stay standing, he can KO Moreira before the halfway mark. But him staying on his feet is the key word here.
- Moreira $7,100
He is going to have to get this to the ground, and I don’t think it's going to be easy. I'll pass.
- Cory Sandhagen $9,300
I like it. I will have some of this crafty fighter. High Volume striking, good level changes, and the ability to finish. I’m interested.
- Mario Bautista $6,900
Short notice… Against a kid that I like a lot… Nope…
- Dennis Bermudez $8,000
Wrestling is going to be his path here, and I think he does just that. May not be a scoring machine since he is a decision rider, but I think he does enough to win and I don’t think he will be highly owned. I can see people taking Edwards here.
- TE Edwards $8,200
I don’t hate it at all, and he has a great chance to win, but I will have more of Bermudez for sure.
- Belal Muhammad $7,700
Very cerebral and calculated fighter. Not a guy that is going to go out there and beat the world in one round, but he does fight smart, and against someone like Neal who really relies on his power, that can be in his favor in this one if he goes ground early. I’ll be pointing his way a few times. I have seen worse plays.
- Geoff Neal $8,500
He can totally KO Belal, and I'm sure a lot of people are picking him to do so. Can’t hate you for wanting to take a few shots on him, but I think even if he wins, Belal will be able to streamline that volume a little with his style, taking away some point accumulation.
- Chance Rencountre $7,500
I am not willing to play him here.
- Stewart $8,700
I hate his price, but I am going to take a very small taste here just because I think people will be off him. In a large field GPP, I have no issues with a flyer or 2.
Dillashaw -210 (2.1 to won 1)
Hardy -475 (Parlayable. see below)
Gillespie -475 (Parlayable)
JoeB -230 (2.3 to win 1)
Ostervich +135 (1 to win 1.35)
Glover -115 (1.15 to win 1)
Hernandez -185 (1.85 to win 1)
Lipski -178 (1 to win 1.78)
Menifield -260 (Parlayable)
Sandhagen -475 (Parlayable)
Bermudez +115 (1 to win 1.15)
Belal +160 (1 to win 1.6)
Stewart -160 (1.6 to win 1)
1 to win 1.45