MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Vegas 3 Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT CARD
Curtis Blaydes DK $9400 / FD $23 vs. Alexander Volkov DK $6800 / FD $16
I’m very intrigued by this main event for really one reason. I want to see where Blaydes is right now. It seems as if Volkov is what he is at this point. At 6’7 with a very good sense of range, he really understands how to keep you at the end of his punches. The Russian comes in with a 31-7 record with 20 by way of KO and in his losses has been submitted 2 times and KO’d 2 times. Volkov has one loss on his record that we can all agree he just should not have lost. After beating up Derrick Lewis from pillar to post on his way to an easy decision win, he got sloppy. With seconds left, instead of sitting back and letting the clock expire, he pursued and got caught. Now, you can do that with some fighters, but there are a few out there that you just can’t play with that kind of fire with. He is one of them. Guys like him, Mark Hunt, Francis and a few others not only have power but have equalizing power. He tasted it that night and learned a very very valuable lesson I’m sure. “The Fight isn’t over until the horn goes off” and “Protect yourself at ALL times.” When he came back to fight Greg Hardy, another power puncher, but a much less polished one, he really used his attributes to just run away with the fight and stay clean. The thing with Volkov is that he is not going to really bring anything new to the table. He is going to fight the same way every outing and it really is up the opposition to respond and adjust. Curtis Blaydes is in a very different situation. I personally don’t think we have seen Blaydes in a situation where he has put all his cards on the table just yet. He will show you something new in every fight, but he will never stray away from his bread and butter which never melts in his back pocket: his wrestling. Wrestling is where he knows he can go to lean on for any reason he needs to gain that security blanket.
The thing with Blaydes is that he really doesn’t have an explosive shot. If you watch the fight against JDS, they seemed very slow and labored but he does get in on his hips and you wonder if it’s his entry that he makes you freeze or JDS was just slow with his reaction times. With that said, Blaydes is really learning to bait you into a false sense of path and security. He will utilize his boxing to see if he can get you to forget about your lower half and engage so he can get in on your hips. However, if he sees you biting on his feints then he will watch….watch….watch…. And then when you bite he will nix the shot and come over the top and KO you as he did to JDS. He is just bringing little things into his game that shows new creases every single fight. In his fight against Francis, he just got caught. It wasn’t a skill disparity, it wasn’t that he wasn’t ready and it wasn’t because he was outmatched. It was literally because he got caught and if you get caught by Francis, you are going to sleep. However, there is no doubt in my mind that there was hesitation to get underneath on Francis. With that said he is not going to need to worry about that with Volkov. Volkov is going to need to do it with Volume and that is something that you have seconds to uncork and then keep the pressuring fighter will either have to stop or move back in order for you to really be able to open up further. I think Blaydes starts feeling out Volkov but being a notoriously slow starter, Volkov will not show his cards early. He is going to need to put Blaydes on his back early and set the tone early. Make Volkov think and keep him honest. If you plant him a few times on his ass then he will hesitate to really open up coming out of that round and that will give Blaydes the ability to really be loose and pick and choose his spots. I see this fight going in the favor of Blaydes here.
The Pick: Blaydes
Shane Burgos DK $8700 / FD $17 vs. Josh Emmett DK $7500 / FD $15
This is a really interesting fight and honestly a harder one to call then the price indicates. Burgos comes from TSK and anyone that comes in from that camp has extremely good striking. Burgos has very clean boxing and moves extremely well. The only issue that I do have with him is that he is very hittable and he showboats a little too much for me. He knows he is fast and he knows that he is slick, but you can’t drop your hands and you can’t blink when it comes to a guy like Emmett. He is really going to have to mind his P’s and Q’s and utilize his footwork, space and speed to really get Emmett to stay honest. The one issue of concern for me here is the cage size. They will be in closer proximity, and there will not be a lot of room for Burgos to open up and use space and range as his friend. He will have no choice but to engage with Emmett in some shades of a firefight and if Emmett decides to wrestle then this can be favorable to him as well. Burgos loves to throw volume and he is quite good at just that. However, with a 13-1 record, he has one blemish on his record against a guy in Kattar that has just as good, if not better boxing then Burgos. In his 13 wins, he has 5 by KO and 5 by Submission, So he is not only a Volume guy and not only a striker but all of his submissions outside of his submission against Holobaugh was in 2014 on the regional circuit, so he isn’t looking for that against Emmett. Organically he knows he has the edge on the feet with most fighters. Burgos is also a student of the game and a fan. He studies the sport, he watches the fights, he is a fan as well as a fighter. He knows who he is fighting, he understands matchups and he is dialed into the NOW with the state of the rising and falling. So if you don’t think that Burgos understands the tendencies of Emmett, you are wrong. The issue is that Emmett and any fighter can flip the script if they have the ability to and Emmett does have the ability to do it. He has wrestling in his back pocket; he is the more explosive fighter, the more powerful fighter and the better wrestler against Burgos, who isn’t exactly a machine when it comes to eluding the takedowns.
However, Emmett is such a wild card when it comes to his fights. He really just waits to uncork that one big shot because it has worked for him so many times. The issue is what happens when it doesn’t work anymore. He tends to win when he is down on the cards and he will bounce back with a big KO to erase the judges from the equation. It’s not a stat that I like, but it’s a realistic one and with the cage being smaller it will benefit Emmett especially if he decides to stalk him down and wrestle. This fight should be a lot closer than it is priced but it will really be premised on how both fighters approach this. Burgos CAN NOT come in with his hands down using head movement to avoid strikes and he will have to start to really check kicks. I saw in the Rosa fight that he was caught 3 times with the same overhand right, and 1 of them hurt him. When a fighter smiles, he is telling you that it was a good shot that clipped him. The difference is, Rosa does not have Emmett’s power. Emmett catches him clean once and Burgos will be doing the chicken dance shortly after. As far as Emmett he can’t wait for that shot. He can’t bank on that because if it doesn’t come then Burgos will run away with the fight. He needs to really implore his wrestling with his striking and give Burgos something to think about. Something to pause on. If he can stun Burgos with something early and make him taste his power, Burgos may be much more inclined to defend upstairs, softening the defense on the shot and if he uses wrestling to early then Burgos may open up to the chin which has been a little questionable. It’s just so hard to think that outside of that he is going to be able to keep up with Burgos unless he lands that eraser.
The Pick: Burgos
Raquel Pennington DK $8800 / FD $17 vs. Marion Reneau DK $7400 / FD $13
Let’s just start off by saying that Reneau is a freak of nature that no one talks about enough when it comes to a numbers value. Win or lose the lady is 42 years of age and still competing at a high level. The Black Belt in BJJ has a very good and disciplined grappling game that she really doesn’t tap into that often. In her UFC run, she has less 1 takedown per attempt, and in her career, she has more KOS then Subs with a ratio of 5 KOS to 2 Submissions. However, she will have no problem with really getting into the thick of things with you on the ground where she is extremely well versed. Her striking is of relatively low volume and even tho she has 5 KOS they are pretty spread out. She isn’t known as a very consistent power puncher but she does have her spots. However, she is fighting an extremely tough, scrappy and durable Raquel Pennington, who really only knows one way… Forward. If you look at Pennington’s losses, she has been only finished 2 times in her career and 1 was by Amanda Nunes by KO and the Other was by Submission back in 2014 to Cat Zingano. Pennington brings a certain toughness that really just keeps her in the fight. Unless you are going to land very significant damage on her or bring a certain pace then she most likely will be the one looking better on the cards. Pennington, in her 10 wins, has had 8 by decision so it is clear that her work rate is about grinding and pushing with her durability in the forefront. She averages around 1 takedown per affair but it’s not a means to an end for her. She really just grinds her way with taking to give, and it has worked for her quite well, but she still has never been able to climb over that pinnacle of top contention because there is a fine line from one bracket to another. When you get into the elite bracket, durability and pressure just aren’t enough. You need an ace in your pocket and it can’t just be the will to fight. However, against Marion, it may be enough. At 42 years old, the last thing Marion wants to be in is a dog fight and Pennington will give that to her. I think Marion makes this very close but Pennington just brings a little more violence in this one to grab the win.
The Pick: Pennington
Belal Muhammad DK $8900 / FD $18 vs. Lyman Good DK $7300 / FD $14
Great fight. Lyman Good is also someone I know personally and I know exactly what he brings to the table. Another TSK guy with very very solid striking, Good also brings an underrated wrestling game to the table. Hits with very good power, very powerful and is patient with his approach. He isn’t what I would call a fundamentally sound striker but he is pretty close in the way he ties everything together. Good is a genetic freak when it comes to his frame and his power echoes that. He isn’t the fighter that is going to take you down or really make you think. He is going to challenge you to stand and trade with him. In his career, he had only been finished one time by submission to Damian Maia, and quite honestly, that means nothing, considering he submits most of the people he gets his paws on if you can’t elude him. In his 21 wins, he has 11 by way of KO. His volume is average. He isn’t going to wow you with 120 strikes in a fight. Even with his war against Dos Santos, he hit around the 80ss mark. He will take on Belal who by all stretches is a little more well rounded. He throws about the same volume as Good, but not as powerful and not as crisp and sharp. However, what he does have is the grappling and he will pursue the takedowns averaging a little over 2 a fight. However, he tends to get things done with the grind. In 16 wins he has 11 by way of decision and in his 3 losses he has been KO’d 1 time. So he is overall durable and he has a very good bead on changing things up from both levels. He is very hittable and that is something that concerns me a bit. But on Good’s side, Belal’s grappling worries me. I think Good can keep this upright and win exchanges from a power exchange end. Lyman is the stronger, more powerful fighter and he should be able to push forward and if he is taken down, He should be able to find his way back to his feet. The fight is a very good fight and one that I am really looking forward to but one I am going to lean slightly on the dog here.
The Pick: Good
Roosevelt Roberts DK $9200 / FD $20 vs. Jim Miller DK $7000 / FD $12
I have a spot for Jim Miller. Jersey guy. Trained with him and his brother at the same gym when he was on the regional circuit over in east Hanover NJ. I watched him and Danny climb the ranks and make it to the show. Both were very good, but there was something about Jim that gave him this certain separation. At the time, he didn’t have much of a standup and his BJJ wasn’t super polished. What did he have? A very good, too heavy wrestling game and a motor. I saw a huge window of potential in him tho. He grasped things extremely well and I knew with the right camp and instructions he would make it to the show. After leaving east Hanover, he went to my very good friend’s gym not too far away. AMA fight club and from there he was training under the elite. Earning his black belt in BJJ under Jaime Cruz and he was able to really mold out his game there. Years later Jim Miller is a staple in the UFC and his career has been solid. Never a championship contender, but someone who you knew to be ready for a war. Much like a Joe Lauzon. Loaded with talent and tough as nails but always hovered in that one airspace. Jim Miller faces issues with Lyme, and it seemed to take hold of his body and his career until he was able to really manage it properly. Now on the wrong side of fighting age, Jim Miller is still a very, very tough out for anyone. However, there does come a point in time where your mind still feels young and understands what it needs to do to react. Your body just isn’t firing with those fresh spark plugs that it did maybe 5 years ago. He takes on Rosevelt Roberts. An extremely talented athlete with a solid and well-rounded game but still very raw. The interesting thing about Robert is that he will look for submissions everywhere. Standing, on the ground or anywhere he can latch onto a neck. In his 10 wins, he has 5 by sub and 3 by KO. In his 1 loss, it is by way of decision. The issue with this matchup is that Roberts is facing a very high-level Jamie Cruz Black Belt in Jim Miller who is a bit smarter than that. He isn’t just going to get caught with a surprise submission unless he is gassed or hurt. He has only been submitted 3 times in 46 fights by Charles Oliveira, Michael Chiesa and Nate Diaz. At the end of the day, Miller is going to give you a go in the 1st round where he is very dangerous. Much Like Joe Lauzon, He will come in looking for the finish and as the fight goes on, he will gas out and completely fall off the shelf. The window here for Miller is small, but he has one good round where he can without a doubt get the youngster out of there. After that Roosevelt should really be able to start pulling away. I am expecting Miller to be dangerous early and start fading down the stretch.
The Pick: Roberts
Bobby Green DK $9100 / FD $19 vs. Clay Guida DK $7100 / FD $12
Clay Guida is best known for his endless motor and his extremely high pressuring in your face game. If you really didn’t know better, you would think the guy did a few bumps of blow before his fight. From his walkout, stare down, and the fight itself, Clay Guida puts on a clinic of high octane visuals, which can send you into a mild anxiety attack. The one thing with Guida is that he really is getting older and he is so in your face that it causes him to make mistakes and leave him ripe for the taking. The 38-year-old holds a 35-19 record with 10 of those losses by way of Submission. Guida tends to run right into submissions in spots and that is just his style. Majority of his submission losses are from the neck. He leads very loosely with his head on his entries and allows him to get caught. In his 35 wins, he also has his share of submissions under his belt with 13. There is no doubt that Guida is a good time to watch because he is either going to run you over or get stopped in his tracks. He will be taking on a very tough customer in Bobby Green. At one time green was beating some very tough opponents but it seems that he has had a fall from grace as of late. Losing 7 of his last 8, you wonder how the UFC held onto him so long. This is not an excuse but the guy has fought a tough set of fighters in that stint. Trinaldo, Poirier, Barboza just to name a few. However, those are the guys that you have to beat if you are going to take the next step into the division’s graces. At 33 years of age, he still has that window to make things at least better but it will really have to start here. He has a nice balance of submissions and KO’s with 9 KOs and 8 Submissions. In his 10 losses, he has 2 by Submission and 2 by KO. There is no doubt that he is the fresher fighter, the better athlete and the one who should ultimately win this fight, but it seems Green has been getting thrown to wolves. Even in his fight against Lando Vannatta to finally get his back off the wall he ended up taking home a draw. Green can be taken down if you really want to get him there. Vannatta was able to secure him 4 times in their draw, but Guida has only secured 1 takedown in 4 fights. So I think Green can manage to keep his hips in space enough to stay upright or get it to the ground on his terms. The question with green is if he can deal with that pressure or if it will get to him to points that he can’t really get into any sort of a tempo. That’s where Guida gets his edge. Enough pressure to make you so uncomfortable that you are fighting defensively, and obviously in the judges’ eyes, defensively is not offensive. I think Green is more than capable of slowing things down or getting Guida to really fight on his terms. I’m not expecting a clean fight. I can see this being a bit sloppy due to the style of Guida, but def a fight that Green should be able to handle.
The Pick: Green
Brianna Van Buren DK $9000 / FD $18 vs. Tecia Torres DK $7200 / FD $11
There is a lot of hype coming behind Van Buren and rightfully so. However, is it? With a record of 7-2, there is no doubt that she has talent. However, she hasn’t fought anyone as of yet. She is well rounded, throws with good volume and has a solid grappling game. With 2 by way of KO and 2 by way of submission, it really doesn’t paint the right picture for me to gauge exactly where she is when she fights someone in the upper tier or even mid-tier of fighter. Even tho Torres’ day has seemed to pass her by a bit, she is still the toughest task for Van Buren yet. Torres has been in there with the top of the division, and even tho she can never really climb that ladder to put herself in that bracket, she was always at least knocking on the door. With a 10-5 record, Torres has gone to the cards an astonishing 14 times. She has 1 submission win against Juliana Lima and has never been finished in her career. The natural Atom Weight is very undersized for the division but she is scrappy and durable. When you beat Tecia, you really just need to outwork her, and the best way to do that is take her down and leave a burn in the eyes of the judges. Torres does not have a very good defensive takedown game and if you want her on the ground, she can be had. Andrade was able to take her down 10 times but even at that point was not able to finish her. She has fought a list of fighters that could not finish her such as Weili, JJ, Andrade and Namajunas. These are champions and former champions. The top of the food chain these women are, now and historically. Torres lost some of these in a lopsided manner, but she was never finished. Van Buren has 2 KOs, in which both ladies had a combined record of 3-8 and KO’d 4 times between the 2. This was also extremely low-level regional circuit. So thinking that Van Buren is going to come in and finish Torres is very hard to believe. The strawweight division in its entirety has less than a 9% finishing rate due to their size and lack of power. So a finish doesn’t seem plausible here. However, I am expecting Van Buren to level change early and start her grind from there. Taking this to the cards and getting her hand raised will be a nice feather in her cap moving her further into the water of the division. However, Torres should not be slept upon.
The Pick: Van Buren
Oskar Piechota DK $8600 / FD $17 vs. Marc-Andre Barriault DK $7600 / FD $15
Jesus… that’s all I can say is Jesus… Both of these guys are on 3 fight losing streaks. I mean this is safe to say that whoever wins this fight is looking at their departure. Who knows, depending on the performance, they both can be on the way out. Piechota is a black belt in BJJ and does have a good ground game, but he just hasn’t been able to translate under the UFC umbrella. The problem with not being too sold with his translation is not only his record, but in 5 fights, he has only 2 takedowns, no submission wins and he was actually submitted 2 times. So where is the confidence in his grappling game when that really is his ace of spades. He will take care of Barriault who is not very good in his own right but he does have a carefree, “Let’s Fight” attitude. His striking is slow and he doesn’t show much athletic ability, but he is game to go. His plodding style forces him to really come in tight, forcing himself into a pocket exchange where in this situation he would likely win. Piechota really has looked bad as of late. He just seems like he lost a sense of confidence and that honestly is not a good thing. Having a ton of talent but not having the confidence to pull the trigger will, in fact, just hold you back. I feel like if he can’t get this to the ground and gain confidence with some transitions in the first round then he may drift away even more. It’s a fight that honestly doesn’t belong on this card. Both fighters are on long losing streaks and it’s more of a savior fight for one of them rather than a fight to climb the ladder. I’m going to take the dog here. It would literally be a dog or pass situation in this spot so I will give the Barriault the lean being the more aggressive fighter in this one.
The Pick: Barriault
Gillian Robertson DK $8300 / FD $16 vs. Cortney Casey DK $7900 / FD $15
Casey is always tough. She doesn’t do anything great but she does most things well I should say. She fights with a chip on her shoulder which I really like and she is not afraid of the fight anywhere it goes. On the feet, she is not afraid to get marked up and nicked up, and on the ground, she has shown the clear ability to lock up a limb. In her 9 wins, she has 4 by way of submission and 3 by way of KO. In her 7 losses, she has only been finished 1 time by submission. She has fought some very tough competition and to be honest with you, she has never been worked over. All her fights have been fairly competitive. And it is basically due to her will to move forward and press the action. She takes on a very slick grappler in Gillian Roberson. With a record of 7-4 and 5 of those wins coming by way of decision, Roberson really has a deceptive and tight grappling game under Dim Thomas. Robertson really looks to get things into her wheelhouse and that is on the ground. With her striking lacking behind Casey, I am assuming that Thomas is going to try to keep the trend going with Gillian’s 3 takedowns a fight average going. Casey has had issues in the past defending the takedowns with under 40% success rate defending them. Look for Casey to really get off on the feet causing Gillian to really dial in and stay committed to the shot, securing some takedowns and gaining more control time looking better in the judges’ eyes in a fight that will be pretty damn close to call in the end.
The Pick: Robertson
Frank Camacho DK $8000 / FD $16 vs. Justin Jaynes DK $6900 / FD $11
This fight was initially supposed to be Matt Fervola, and I actually had him winning this. With that said, now I am doing another short write up here for debuting fighter, Justin Jaynes. I watched some film on this kid, and I have to be quite honest. I was slightly impressed. He isn’t the greatest and cleanest striker out there, but he really understands positioning and top control when he is on the ground. One thing that he does very well is, when he commits to your hips, he will really commit hard. He will get deep, and if he misses, he will latch right back on until he either gets you down or you escape. If you pop up, he will try again. I have seen him get sloppy to points where he ended up on the wrong side of his takedowns, but he has a slippery way about him where he manages to find his way back into a positive position. Certain spots that I’ve seen him in trouble was, when he gets hit clean, he tends to retreat and that is a clear indication that he feels what’s coming at him. Not a great sign against someone like Camacho, who hits like a truck and has very very good durability. In 22 wins, he has 17 by way of KO. He has been KO’d 4 times in his career. In his UFC run, he is 2-4 and has been KO’d one time by a head kick. Camacho is better than his record indicates in the UFC, but he does get caught up in some negative situations that he just doesn’t need to be in. He has that old frame mindset in which he just wants to brawl, and although it is very fan-friendly, it is not sustainable. However, in this fight, he should be able to get what he wants, providing he can stay off his back. I have seen Jaynes rocked, and I have seen him put on his heels. Camacho should have no problem doing that if he can really keep this from turning into a close proximity fight that ultimately allows him on the cage or on his ass. He needs to have space, and he needs to either stay in the center of the cage or he needs to be the one pushing Jaynes against the cage. He can’t have his back to the cage, allowing Jaynes to have a solid look at his hips. If he can adhere to those laws, he should win this one. If he loses this fight, it could very well be his exit, as well.
The Pick: Camacho
Roxanne Modafferi DK $8500 / FD $16 vs. Lauren Murphy DK $7700 / FD $13
Such an ugly fight here that I really don’t have much interest, to be quite honest with you. Both women have such an odd style to them. Modafferi has extremely low athletic ability, and her standup is so very pedestrian. However, she brings this toughness to the cage that keeps her in it. It’s the most bizarre thing to watch. When she gets you on the ground, the high-level grappler doesn’t make it look pretty, but she somehow finds ways to put you into bad spots. Since 2017, Modafferi has been on a sea-saw of wins and losses. She is coming off a big win against highly touted Maycee Barber, and she is looking to string together 2 wins in a row in her last 7 fights. There is something about Modafferi that you really love to hate. Even with her very good grappling, 15 of her 24 wins have been by way of decision. Makes you wonder because she is just so plodding and slow. However, it’s her ground control that will win her fights if she can get it there. However, Murphy is in a similar boat for me. Not very good, but she has her spots where she finds ways to get it done. With that said, she gets it done on her feet. With a 12-4 record, she has 8 by KO and none by submission. In her 4 losses, she has never been finished. Murphy is on a little bit of a high right now with 2 wins coming against Borella and a split decision win over the very tough Andrea Lee. Murphy did a very good job alluding takedowns and countering them with strikes, especially against Borella where she was able to shuck a takedown, counter with a knee and fireback with a barrage of punches to finish her. I think she is able to do that here against Modafferi. I think she has enough to keep this standing and land the more significant strikes to pull away in this one. Both of these ladies are past their marks in their careers, and nothing will surprise me, considering I am not high on either of them and I think this should be priced much closer. I’ll take Murphy here.
The Pick: Murphy
Max Rohskopf DK $8400 / FD $16 vs. Austin Hubbard DK $7800 / FD $14
This is a twister for me. Normally, when you get a guy debuting like this on short notice, he is more than likely being left for slaughter. However, in this fight, Hubbard is getting a really tough kid in Rohskopf. Hubbard comes in with an 11-4 record, with 4 KO’s and 2 Submissions. In his 4 losses, he has been submitted once. He has the UFC experience, and he also has had a camp for this fight, even tho it was against a different fighter. Hubbard really translates to his fight. When he fights a grappler or wrestler, you will see that he really won’t pursue the takedowns or exchanges. He will keep it upright and take things from there. His volume is quite low, and you can’t expect a very high output from him unless someone really drags it out of him. This is a tricky fight for him against an undefeated newcomer with a lot of heat coming in with his reputation. He has a very solid wrestling background with his collegian resume, and he is extremely slick and active off. This kid will look for submissions until there is nothing left to string together. Still highly unproven and his striking is pedestrian, he still understands where his bread and butter is and that is in his grappling. He really is still so raw, and that scares me a bit. Also, he is literally coming in on such short notice that you need to wonder what he has been doing. However, you really can’t speculate, and even tho he is getting the call a bit early, I like this kid and I think he has a very good chance to get this win in a short call debut.
The Pick: Rohskopf
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS
Curtis Blaydes – DK $9400 / FD $23
Blaydes should do work here if he gets his wrestling going. I am expecting him to really get right to the wrestling and not toy around on the feet. Pricey here, but in a 5 round fight, he still has very good upside.
Alexander Volkov – DK $6800 / FD $16
I am not picking him to win, but the guy is not $6800 bad. He is a very good striker, and if he can manage to keep this upright, then he will make this interesting. At $6800, he is worth a punt in a few spots.
Shane Burgos – DK $8700 / FD $17
Burgos is pricey here. He will really need to spit some good volume to cover that. He isn’t going for takedowns, and he is going to be a bit cautious here with the eraser right hand of Emmett. I would be careful here.
Josh Emmett – DK $7500 / FD $15
Emmett is really premised on if he can either land that eraser or get his wrestling going and drag this into a long controlled fight that he can steal on the cards. He is not going to hang with Burgos shot for shot, but if he can make it dirty, even a win in any facet should cover value. I wouldn’t fade him here.
Raquel Pennington – DK $8800 / FD $17
Marion Reneau – DK $7400 / FD $13
I’m fading this fight…
Belal Muhammad – DK $8900 / FD $18
I’m not crazy about his price here. Even in a win, I don’t see him walking on Good. He needs to have a very active outing to cover that price, and even if he does, I do not see him finishing Good so being on the Optimal is probably not going to happen. I’m not crazy about the value here. I would tread lightly and don’t bury a lot of stock here.
Lyman Good – DK $7300 / FD $14
At $7300, Good is a borderline punt and that is a pretty good deal. I think Good has a very good chance to win this fight if he can keep it on the feet. He is one of the Dogs on the card who has a very good chance in winning. HOWEVER, he will most likely be one of the higher owned dogs so I would not bury your lineups with it but def give him some love. Don’t be tweeting at me “My night’s done” because I tell you time and time again: they are dogs for a reason. Back yourself up.
Roosevelt Roberts – DK $9200 / FD $20
Roberts’ danger zone is round 1, which he could really get a scare from the crafty Jim Miller. However, as the fight goes on, if he can get out of the first round, he should be able to start running away with it being the fresher fighter. I really don’t like his price because that first round really does scare me, but I am going to have some because there will be people taking Miller in lineups for that 1st round submission. His price may also scare some people off, but that’s when you take a few swings.
Jim Miller – DK $7000 / FD $12
I won’t have much, but I will have a couple. Miller has one really good round in him, and sometimes, that’s all you need.
Bobby Green – DK $9100 / FD $19
I don’t like his price, but there is some upside if he can get the finish at some point. Guida will be the one pushing forward, so that could take his potential to score well, but Green has opportunities to make it work. I think people will be off him a bit due to his price, and I don’t blame them, but you aren’t winning the Milly or any of these big tournaments if you don’t grab your sack and get diverse. I’ll take a few chances with some lineups.
Clay Guida – DK $7100 / FD $12
It’s Clay Guida. Great price for him, but I just don’t think he wins. I won’t hate you if you want to give him a swing.
Brianna Van Buren – DK $9000 / FD $18
Tough call here… I am expecting her to win this fight, but I don’t see her finishing Torres. Torres makes things difficult, and Van Buren is still quite raw. I think the field will be pretty heavy on her, and I will be underweight here. I don’t see her finishing Torres.
Tecia Torres – DK $7200 / FD $11
I may throw a small punt here just because of where she is experience-wise, her durability, and her price. But outside of that, I am not really expecting much. This is a tough ask fight for her.
Oskar Piechota – DK $8600 / FD $17
He’s going to have to really prove me wrong…. Fade.
Marc-Andre Barriault – DK $7600 / FD $15
Very, very small dose. This is low-level MMA, but he has decent power and Piechota seemed to lose something in his last 3 losses.
Gillian Robertson – DK $8300 / FD $16
Cortney Casey – DK $7900 / FD $15
I’m not overly excited here. I don’t see this being a barn burner, however, I am going to have a heavier lean on Robertson due to the takedowns and the grappling. But not a fight I will be overly invested in.
Frank Camacho – DK $8000 / FD $16
Camacho’s price never moved with his switch, so for that reason alone, there is value there when he should be priced much higher. He will most likely be very highly owned due to this and with good reason. He is durable and has very good power. He is inline for a possible finish, so def get him in some of your lineups but pump the brakes slightly here. Go in and get some, but this kid isn’t terrible.
Justin Jaynes – DK $6900 / FD $11
The guy’s wrestling and grappling interests me a little bit, to be honest. I am expecting Camacho to win, but at $6900 with a few takedowns, some advances and some control, stranger things have happened. I’ll take a small stab here. I have seen much worse people who I haven’t faded.
Roxanne Modafferi – DK $8500 / FD $16
Lauren Murphy – DK $7700 / FD $13
I can’t stand this lady as a fighter.. I actually can’t stand either of them… However, I am going to take a small swing here. At $7700, if Murphy can find a hole to start teeing off on Modafferi, then it could be a little gem to start your night. Large swing but screw it. A small swing isn’t going to kill anyone.
Max Rohskopf – DK $8400 / FD $16
Debuting, short term fight that really makes this kid a wild card. I think he may get more exposure than he should. I am not sure. Or people may use the different approach that will cause them to jump on Hubbard. However, people are catching wind of this kid’s talent, so I will be on it. But in a fight that holds question marks, I will also have lineups that sit back just to see how this unfolds. Def get a few tho.
Austin Hubbard – DK $7800 / FD $14
I’m not going to be huge on this fight, but I won’t be on Hubbard on the majority shares. Small sprinkle and I will leave it there.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT VEGAS
1.5 to win 1
Burgos is the sharper fighter. Very slick boxing and should be able to really just out pace Emmett on the feet. He just needs to put the show boating away from this one because if Emmett catches his chin this bet can be off the board in one shot. I like Burgos chances to stay safe here.
Van Buren -190
1.9 to win 1
Torres has fought all top flight competition but Van Buren should be able to out pace her. Finish her? I would not bank on it. Some of the top flight ladies in the division couldn’t do it. I wouldn’t bank on her getting finished here. But I do think Van Buren out works her.
1 to win 1.15
I think the power will be the difference here. I think Bellal will taste his power and try to grapple and Good will be strong enough to shuck it off to keep it standing.
1.7 to win 1
She is 11 years younger. Is extremely durable and really should be able to bring a slightly higher pace that Marion may not be able to keep up with.
1 to win 1.25
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