MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT MAIN CARD
Blachowitz $8900 vs Souza $7300
Call me nuts, but I don’t see this fight being a great one for a headliner. Souza is aging, but he is an absolute savage when it comes to grappling. He is extremely decorated in the BJJ world and his pedigree on the ground is really second to none. The chances of you surviving on the ground with Souza when he starts getting his hooks are slim. However, he is very much a KO advocate these days. He will stand and trade with you and he will look for the KO. Do I agree? No, but has he had some success with it? Yes. My issue with him is really his age and cardio. His gassing out can be extreme and when he does he really is a sitting duck. He is taking on a guy in Blachowitz that may not have his credentials, but he’s well versed enough to stay safe and his cardio is far better down the stretch. I just think there are certain fights, matchup wise, that don’t connect the dots and this is one of them. It doesn’t mean that Blachowitz is the better fighter. It could literally just mean the matchup was really in his favor style wise. That’s what I really think about this fight. As much as I love Souza and I understand how dangerous he can be, it just keeps pointing me back into the direction of Blachowitz to win this fight. Solid striking. Good cardio. And a high enough pedigree in BJJ to stay safe. This fight is in Brazil and you really never know what happens when the cards get involved. We have seen it time and time again, but I think Blachowitz runs enough to make it a little clearer cut. Give me Blachowitz and hope Souza doesn’t do Souza things on there Saturday night
The Pick: Blachowicz
Rua $9300 vs Craig $6900
Damn. If this fight was a few years back I wouldn’t even bat an eye lash at it. Rua is one of the OG’s of the sport and has fought a litter of very good fighters. So to see him circle back and fight someone like Paul Craig is a little weird but understood. He’s older and still thinks he can hang with today’s era. In some cases he can, but you have to wonder how much does he really have left? He was a KO artist in his hay day succeeding 21 of his 26 wins by way of KO. It’s not like he’s losing. He won 4 of his last 5 and had a very impressive win against Tyson Pedro in his last fight. So he’s keeping up with the young guns but you wonder when will it end. I’m not expecting him to beat elite fighters, but they aren’t feeding him elite fighters. They are giving him people that he can beat and Craig suits that category. He is very good grappler with a never say die attitude, but has had his chin issues in the past and really doesn’t have much of a stand up game. Craig is the type of guy that you just count out until the clock expires. His Hail Mary triangle submission against Ankalov with 1 second left on the clock proved that. However, this fight is in Brazil and Rua is old yet crafty. He has seen it all and in 37 fights he has only been stopped by submission three times. I find it hard to believe that he would get caught in his home country by someone like Craig. However, you get older and your reflexes start to give way. It’s actually an interesting fight but I can’t go against Rua in Brazil here.
The Pick: Rua
Oliviera $9400 vs Gordon $6800
You’re looking at two guys with loads of talent, but sometimes both tend to shoot themselves in the foot. Oliviera is one of the most masterful grapplers in the division and there is no position that you put him in where he is not a threat. However, he needs to want to be in there. I have seen him give up position and literally give up in fights and that is not a comfortable feeling. However, he seems to have moved passed that a bit. We haven’t seen a blip like that for awhile. In 27 wins he has 18 by submission. The guy is a wizard on the ground when he wants to be. When he is fighting someone like Jared Gordon who is a high pressure takedown machine the opportunity will rear its head numerous times for Oliviera. It will be up to him to expose it and not be in that give up frame of mind because Gordon can put a pace on to make you give up. However, I’m Brazil, I don’t see Oliviera taking that route. There is something about that Brazilian pride that changes the mindset of them. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Gordon win this fight and I think the line is way off but I do see Oliviera winning this fight and possibly inside the horn if he plays his cards right.
The Pick: Oliviera
Moraes $7200 vs Krause $9000
Really good fight here. Moraes just seems to be sliding a bit. The guy is still a heavy hitter and has a grappling game like nobody’s business, but once again how long can the human body keep up in such an unforgiving sport as we get older. At 37 years of age the 3rd degree black belt in BJJ knows exactly where he needs to be all times on the mat, but it doesn’t take away from the slowing down on reaction times as we get older. Krause is not too far behind him and at 33 years of age he actually has more fights than Moraes. Krause has a very intelligent fighting mind, but sometimes you can know so much and not be able to implement it properly like you would explaining it to someone. He knows the game and he has a very keen eye on how it all ties together, but he isn’t a world beater by any stretch of the imagination. However, with a 26-7 record he does have quite the finishing resume with 14 by submission and seven by way of KO. He’s only been finished three times in his career and two of them were by way of submission. Krause is game and he isn’t going to let you just roll, but he has really not faced a huge pedigree of monsters. This is a spot where I think he can gain his 6th straight win and start peeking his head into the contention hole. I think Moraes gets tired late and Krause takes over, earning a win in a fight that was fairly well contested until Moraes starts to fade down the stretch.
The Pick: Krause
Garagori $7000 vs Ramos $9200
At 13-0 Garagori has one win under the UFC umbrella and quite honestly, that’s all that matters to me unless you are coming from a serious company like LFA or ROC. All the other smaller Brazilian circuits really mean nothing to me. Garagoris lone win was against Bandanay, which really also means nothing to me because he is not very good at all. He did look ok in that fight and he did do some nice things, but at the end of the day, who is standing in front of you will either make you look terrible or like a magician. He is going to have his hands full with young prospect Ramos who has shown glimpses of both sides of the coin. Some spectacular finishes and also some situations where you raise your eye brows. However, he is super young and mistakes will be made. I personally think they brought him up a smidge too early. The 24 year old is 13-2 in the totality of his run, but has a UFC record of 4-1 which shows promise. However, he is young so we really don’t know what he is yet. What we do know is that the UFC likes this kid and he does have potential. The cardio issues for such a young man does concern me, but it could honestly be discipline issues at his age. At 24, he should be on the cusp of growing into his own and we really should get a glimpse Saturday of what path he takes. Did he evolve or will he just be a talented midway Brazilian fighter that is dangerous in spots but not one that will ever be a contender. Either way I think he wins this fight. This is another lush spot for him and as long as he stays true to what he’s good at and doesn’t gas, he should be fine.
The Pick: Ramos
Green $7800 vs Trinaldo $8400
This could be a good fight for a few reasons but I do have my thoughts on it. Green is the guy that seems to beat all the guys that he supposed to beat for the most part. Then when you give him that bump in competition he tends to shit the bed. It’s been a pattern with him for a long time. Beat fighter A and lose to Pourier. Beat fighter B and lose to Barboza. It’s just the way it’s been. At 33 years of age it doesn’t seem like Green will ever grab that gold standard type fighter. He can be a good stepping stone or test for the younger guys and a measuring stick for the older ones. He needs to be in the absolute right fight for him to shine and I am not sure there are many more fights like that for him. The world of MMA is far too diverse today and the looks now are plentiful. He’s a younger fighter with an old school style but that may be what he needs here against a 85 year old Trinaldo. Kidding. He’s 41, but is he really? Lol. The mystery will always be unanswered. Trinaldo seems ageless which is crazy. So many people talk about Romero and Cormier still doing it at their age and I get it, but everyone tends to forget that Trinaldo is 41 and still doing this damn thing. He is the poster child for rotating doors of wins and loses but if you look at his resume, the guy is losing to legit fighters and he really hasn’t been finished by many at all. Kevin Lee submitted him in 2017 and before that he hasn’t been finished since 2013. The guy is just brutally tough, but the wheels will fall off soon. Very soon. The body redlines around this time. Your not seeing guys 43-44 making runs or doing well. 41-42 is about the redline year and he is within it. Last fight or not it’s the one fight the wheels can fall off and it could be this one. In Brazil though? In front of his people? I don’t know about that. Give me the old savage in this one.
The Pick: Trinaldo
Alves $8300 vs Brown $7900
This is a very interesting fight. Randy Brown is hard to put a bead on, but when he is dialed in he can be a problem. Look what he did to Mickey Gall. Yeah I know it’s Mickey Gall, but look what he did to BamBam. You just don’t finish Bam. However, despite his big time performances against average competition, there is a flip side to that coin. As quick as he wins is as quick as he can lose to guys like Niko Price and Belal Mohamed. Brown isn’t a fighter that will do well in chaos and that is why he lost to Price. He is also not a fighter that will do super well against someone who understands how to really slow a fight down which is why Belal beat him. He needs a happy medium. He needs to control with range and he needs someone who will bend a bit. Brown isn’t a KO specialist but he does it with range and volume. In his 11 wins, six have been by way of KO – however he likes to get it done is just fine if the formula works. He will be facing Alves, who is in my eyes very under appreciated, but some of that blame can be put on his shoulders. Best known for his submission win against Colby Covington, Alves has one of the best guillotine chokes in the business. With four of his six chokes coming that way, including the one he caught Colby in, he wastes no time if you expose your neck. However, like most fighters, when you get a taste of a KO you tend to thirst for more, so Alves seems to be toeing that line much like guys like Gilbert Burns. That should really not be his game plan here at all. He is going to be giving up a six inch reach advantage and standing in range would not be advised. He needs to get inside and get this to the mat where Brown tends to be much less effective. Brown throws with decent pop but not enough where Alves should be overly concerned about breaking space. The issue with Alves is he does have a big tendency to fade. If this is a high paced fight or Alves gets him in a spot, tries to finish him and fails then he can come out gasping for air in the round to come. I think Alves paces himself a little better in this fight and although i can make arguments for both men winning this fight, I think Alves will be able to gain some control at home where the judges will want to give him a nod of things are close.
The Pick: Alves
De Silva $9100 vs Barao $7100
Believe it or not I’m super torn here. At one time Barao was one of the most top flight fighters in the UFC. This is a guy who literally just torched whoever stepped in the cage with him until he faced TJ Dillashaw and he was just never the same again. He won 32 fights in a row with one no contest leading up to his loss against Dillashaw. After that his career spiraled out of control and he has lost six of his last eight including a four fight skid presently. It’s outlandish to me how a table can turn like this. Many say it’s the USADA era and I get it, but what people fail to realize is that confidence is a more powerful drug than anything. I think he lost his way due to him being shocked that he finally lost a fight. It hurried him and he was never able to mentally bounce back from it. Barao is now losing to guys that wouldn’t be able to shine his shoes before that loss and now he is getting out worked by them. Sad to see. However, the boy is still Barao and on any given night he can arrive again. That is why it is super scary to pick against him. Da Silva is another Brazilian that is probably in his mid 70’s and he’s hiding it. Lol. The “34” year old has 25 wins with 19 by way of KO. That’s damn impressive. In his three loses he has only been finished two times by way of strikes and submission one time. The Brazilian with the fancy mullet is extremely under appreciated and tough, but Vegas seems to really appreciate him a little too much. I can’t believe I’m saying this but I’m taking Barao. It’s time for him to get his back off the wall and get his hand raised in Brazil. He wasn’t your average fighter and even if he comes out of his shell at 75%, that would be enough for him to win this fight. You will know a few minutes in if he’s dead in the water or alive. I’ll take my chances here.
The Pick: Barao
Arroyo $8200 vs Muniz $8000
Flip a coin… Seriously… The one thing that stands out when you look at their resume’s is that both men have been finished one way. Arroyo has lost four and has been KO’d four times. Muniz has lost twice and has been submitted two times. Muniz has has quite the submission finishing rate with 12 of his 18 wins by way of submission. Arroyo is a little more balanced in his approach splitting his finishes 4/4. Both men had success in their stints during the Contender Series winning two fights a piece and now climb into the octagon again looking to send someone home with their first “L” under any sort of UFC umbrella. Both Brazilians will have their share of crowd support in this one so judging may not be too big of a factor here, but I will tell you that the upside for me here is Muniz. Even though Arroyo seems to me to be the cleaner striker, Arroyo has no problems going to the ground and the cleaner fighter on the ground is Muniz. With fights like this on their home turf there is always a lot of pride involved; so it can be cautious and labored or they can really look to put on a show for the crowd. It is honestly a fight that I will have some exposure to because of the value of the pricing and on a card like this it really just fits. It would be foolish to lean heavy one way with skill sets like this, but a heavier lean is always what I personally like to do. I think the fight stays standing for a bit until one man decides they are falling behind. When the fight hits the mat, I am expecting Muniz to have the edge there – getting to his spots better and transitioning into positions that suit him. Even if he does not lock a submission up or even have Arroyo hooked up in something that fails, Muniz will be offensive enough on the ground to gain that control edge. The upside is there for both men. One has been clipped in all his losses and one submitted in all of his. It really is a game of who gets what and I think Muniz is the one the gain the edge in this one, but flip a coin. This is not very high level MMA.
The Pick: Muniz
Lipski $7700 vs Macedo $8500
This fight is so bad it might be good. Lipski came in with a lot of hype behind her and since her arrival into the UFC it couldn’t be any worse. It seems as if she is just having some serious problems pulling the trigger. She is getting off 2nd. She is slow in her exchanges and she just doesn’t seem comfortable at all in there. It is almost like I’m waiting for that switch to be hit where she shows glimpses of when she was known as the “Queen of Violence”. The once potent finisher has really just blocked a gear it seems and it’s starting to become worrisome. She had the talent, but is it because of the level she was facing that made her so appealing? The last two fights say that she may not be ready here, but a 3rd time is a charm right? If she loses this fight then it would be fair to say it’s time to send her back down for a bit. She will be tested by Veronica Macedo, who is tough, but has had problems under the umbrella in her own right. With a 1-3 record in the UFC she won her last fight, which was her first win, against Polyana Viana. The black belt in BJJ has the chops on the ground to put you in some bad positions, but in six wins only two have been by way of submission. She tends to go full time half of the time. Lipski isn’t one to be finished easily either. She has only been finished one time due to strikes. It’s a fight that both women have clear paths to win, but we haven’t seen Lipski really step on the gas yet and at even money if she decides she belongs and fights lose then she really should win this fight. With that said, if she doesn’t step on the gas or decides the level is just too much for her, then Macedo may be able to control the complexion of this fight. I’m going with Lipski due to her upside. She has more to give and I feel she needs to extract it now before she’s cut.
The Pick: Lipski
Melo $7400 vs Cortez $8800
Mehhhh. Flip a coin. Both of these women are really not all that good. Talking about game plans and blueprints is quite useless. They are either going to evolve fight to fight or they will just stay low level and not have a very long shelf life. Trusting any of these women at this point would be extremely foolish unless you are in a large field GPP and looking to be on the right side of a good performance. If that’s the case, then I think there is upside for Melo in this fight. She’s the dog, she’s in Brazil, she seems to be pretty durable going full length with Aldana. I would dare to say she seems like she holds the candle in the striking department. But at this level of MMA, you really just don’t know. However, what I will say is this. I’m not spending 8800 on any of these women and I am not laying -200 either. So if there is a play that should be had if you feel the sudden need to throw this fight in somewhere then I would say Melo at dog money and 7400 in Brazil would be the shot to take. However, I really don’t have a strong take here, but in a fight like this you go dog or nothing.
The Pick: Melo
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DRAFTKINGS
Blachowitz $8900
Little pricey but in a five rounder where there is some upside for Souza to gas and Blachowitz to finish, I’ll take some swings.
Souza $7300
7300 is a price that you need to have a taste. I don’t see him winning but it’s still Souza and it’s still 7300 bucks. Don’t fade him.
Rua $9300
A little too pricey here for me. I’m not thrilled with that tag at all. I’m off.
Craig $6900
At 6900 I have seen worse swings that Craig. I’m not expecting much at all and I do have him losing this fight, but it wouldn’t kill ya to take a swing in a spot that is actually winnable.
Oliviera $9400
There is so much upside with this guy, but there is also always so much risk. Gordon is going to put that ugly pressure that he hates but also can thrive in. Amidst the chaos he can fold, but he can also find a seam for submission. If he was cheaper I would be much more in. I’m in but more careful then what I want to be.
Gordon $6800
He’s going to put on a pace and either get a limb ripped off or he is going to smother Oliviera. For 6800 and the pressure that he does bring with Oliviera having a small window that possibly may allow him to fold. A swing isn’t out of question here.
Perez $8600
I like Perez. Price is right and he is sub 9k. He’s a tough guy with a very slick submission game. I would expect him to be more of a finisher, but at 8600 if he’s active enough, a finish isn’t mandated. Not a bad spot for him here even though Turman is coming across like a tough customer.
Turman $7600
The kids tough but I am not sure he will keep up against Perez and his tricky ways. Perez has a way to wow the judges in his wreckless attempts and even though that’s not what wins fights, I thinkPerez brings more dynamics and can match Turman in toughness as well. Not a huge fan here.
Moraes $7200
Not a bad price here. I would call this pretty cheap actually. I have some interest here but I just don’t see him beating Krause here.
Krause $9000
I like him to win the fight, but damn this price tag is heavy. I know he has a very good finishing ratio but Moraes presents problems in this fight that he may need to be a little cautious about. Not a huge advocate of this tag but if Krause is dialed in, it can be a nice night for him and his supporters for sure.
Garagori $7000
I won’t be having any here.
Arroyo $8200 / Muniz $8000
Both men have weaknesses in their losses. Arroyo has lost four and has been KOd all four times and Muniz has two losses and submitted both times. So the upside is there for both men, but Muniz is my slight lean on this one. However, you would be crazy to play one and not the other.
Ramos $9200
The kids cardio scares me but what can you do. The upside is there and the price tag will take people off him. I’ll take a few chances on the young Brazilian here.
Green $7800
Green isn’t a terrible play at 7800 but I really think this is Trinaldo’s fight to win or lose. I wouldn’t hate you but I would definitely tell you to temper your expectations.
Trinaldo $8400
He’s 41 and you wonder when he’s going to break down. He’s in Brazil. His price is not terrible and I do have him winning this fight. So I will have some for sure.
Alves $8300
Alves is a wild card. He hits hard, he has a nasty guillotine choke and he is always okay due to his multiple ways to finish things. The concerning thing for me is yet again a guy with a questionable gas tank. He’s going to have to get a jump early and he will need to deal with the range of Brown. Hey under that range and he should be able to ground Brown at some point where Brown is notably not very good. 8300 isn’t a terrible price tag on a card that is a little hungry for value.
Brown $7900
He has the range and the ability to keep Alves outside, but will he? Alves will most likely test him on the feet where Brown will most likely have the advantage, but if he can’t allude Alves taking it to the mat, then all can be lost. I don’t see him finishing Alves so I think his ceiling is capped here.
De Silva $9100
I’m not playing him. I think this price is way too high. Fade for me.
Barao $7100
Well hello 7100 Mr Barao. Are you going to give me a glimpse of what you were or will you be the man that will stay in hiding? Well I’m giving you a chance. You have too much history behind you to be 7100 and fade you. Let’s go! 1 time Barao! I hope because I will have some…..
Lipski $7700
She has been sluggish as of late. She just can’t seem to pull the trigger. I’m hoping that she busts out of her shell here but I’m really not certain she will. At 7700 when value is needed a bit, if she does break out of her shell, then she could end up covering value. Be very careful here because I haven’t been impressed but in multiple lineup settings. She is a dog with a chance.
Macedo $8500
Too expensive for my liking.
Melo $7400/Cortez $8400
I’m not an advocate of this fight. It’s not a talent pool fight. However, if your going to play it, I would say take a swing on Melo. It’s in Brazil and who knows what happens in this one.
