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Marlon Moraes $8,800 vs. Raphael Assuncao $7,400
This is a rematch of these two gentlemen that ended in a very very close decision leaning the way of Assuncao. The argument could have been made for Moraes, but the end result went to Assuncao who has been involved in many close splits in which he usually edges out. The thing that makes Assuncao so good is his ability to be a defensive fighter and lull you into an offensive fight at his pace. His ability to really control the pace of the dance is extremely calculated and he understands range along with the ability to make very good adjustments in the process. The strange thing about Assuncao is that he has never ever been 5 rounds before. That is really odd to me given the caliber of men he has taken on and how well respected he is in this game. The main events have eluded him for quite some time, and now later in his career, he gets to show if he has that extra 2 rounds to shell out some damage. Moraes, on the other hand, has been in the deep 2 times going to a 5 round decision. I love Assuncao. I love everything about his game, How calculated it is. How intelligent he is, and most of all how he literally just puts his nose to the ground and works, no matter what bullshit is going in his career with him feeling majorly overlooked in the company. With that said, I do believe that Moraes came into that fight with some slight nerves. I do believe that the fight could have really gone either way and that one judge giving 30-27 was clearly high on drugs that night. The fight was very close but there are 2 X-Factors here that can completely change the game for both men. For Assuncao, he is an extremely underrated grappler and he needs to really hoist that and bring it to fruition in this fight. He must be extremely careful because Marlon is a black belt under the great Ricardo Almeida, but test him and gain that control time. As far as Moraes, he should just implement the things that he has been implementing in the fights after his loss to Raphael. Use his speed and volume to gain points and keep the pace of the fight moving in one direction. Forward. Get off first and get off last. Reset. Move around and do it all over again. Utilize speed to create angles setting up that high kick that sent Jimmie Rivera into another dimension. Rematches can be tricky but having enough on the ground to stay safe, having mark henry in charge of your hands, and having thoughts debuting jitters out of your system coupled with some very impressive wins just seems like he has enough to edge this one out this time. This fight is as close as it gets, but Moraes seems to be the one that the UFC wants to showcase more, and after his last few performances, it’s safe to see why.
The Pick: Moraes
Renato Moicano $8,300 vs. Jose Aldo $7,900
Man, this fight is something else… On one side you have Brazil’s Native King and on the other side, you have a red hot up and coming prospect in Moicano. Moicano has showcased his skills in every fight he has been in except for one. A fight that I call a complete blip in his radar. He was beating Ortega in that fight and he was on his way to a clear decision win. In the 3rd round, he decided to take Ortega down and was introduced to the slick submission game of Ortega. It may have been one of the most boneheaded decisions that I have seen in quite some time and it really left me quite dumbfounded. In any event, he dropped his first loss to himself and his decision making. The Black Belt in BJJ has shown the ability to not only be a solid player on the ground for the most part, but his extremely high pedigree Muay Thai Game is really where he likes to play. The strange thing about Moicanos game is that he does hit hard and he does have some pop but he doesn’t have any KO’s to his credit. In 13 wins he has 6 wins by submission and 7 by way of decision. So it is clear that his best work is on the ground even with his enjoyment to stand and trade. After his loss to Ortega, he bounced back very nicely and beat the very tough and good striker in Calvin Katter by decision and then Submitted an always tough but aging Cub Swanson. I think the Brazilian has a very good game and has the ability to really cause waves in the division, but he will have an extremely tall task ahead of him when he is actually not the crowd favorite on his own soil. Jose Aldo is to Brazil what any great athlete is to their country, but more. With a 27-4 record, Aldo went on an unimaginable 9-year win streak. Wiping just about every fighter off the map that stepped his way. He has fought everyone and he was basically a lock button at one point in time until that one night where he was Clipped by Connor Mcgregor in which I still think was just a flukey thing. (Wrong spot, Wrong Time). I still think Aldo wins that fight if that fight was able to settle itself in. It is also a fight that if he wins here, I think needs to be run back. He deserves that for as good as much as he’s given to this sport. He deserves an opportunity to get that one back. After that fight, he bounced back and beat New Jersey’s legendary Frankie Edgar for the 2nd straight time. After that, he took on Max Holloway and Lost again showing us that maybe he was declining a bit or maybe this new breed is passing him up. The rematch happened and it was the same result. The great Aldo has now lost 3 of his last 4 fights and now the questions were looming where his head was. Was he a mentally beaten man or were his skills just evaporating? His following fight would be a clear indication on where he was. Jeremy Stevens is a very good and scrappy fighter but dialed in Aldo doesn’t lose that fight. Aldo came out looking sharp and eventually got the monkey off his back by making quick work of Stevens in the very first round. The emotion that ran through him after the fight, showed me that this was much more of a mental thing for him. He cried like he just won the belt again. It was a win he needed to really get his confidence back and proving to himself that he still has the chops to get things done in there. This fight is very very similar to his last fight with Stevens. Even tho Moicano is a better fighter than Stevens right now and an obviously better prospect going forward, Dialed in Aldo just don’t lose to the Moicanos of the world. I am putting my faith into Aldo here. In Brazil in a high profile fight that can possibly get him back into the mix for his revenge against Mcgregor with a victory here. I truly believe that he has accepted his losses against Max. However, his fluke loss to Connor is something that haunts him every day and I think that is his motivation, even more than a title shot at this point. He has clearly stated that he wants to retire at the end of 2019. What better way to end your career than right the ship against the biggest thorn in your side. He will need to get it done here or the allure can be lost. I think he does…
The Pick: Aldo
Demian Maia $8,700 vs. Lyman Good $7,500
I went back and forth on this fight so much because I know what Lyman Good can do when he ties everything together. I know how powerful he is and what happens if anyone in the division gets caught on the wrong side of one of his exchanges. However, I also know how dangerous Maia is if he gets you to the Mat. In order to beat Demian Maia, you have very few options. 1 option is to have exceptional takedown defense considering he is so dedicated to the takedown. Another avenue is if he does get you down, to have the ability to last, take it into deeper waters and then start to pick him apart as he begins to gas out. Maia dropped his last 3 fights but if you look at the pattern, he fought all extremely high pedigree wrestlers that were able to stuff his shot and pursue with confidence. Someone like Lyman is a dedicated striker and he will not really be able to engage with the pressure he wants to. He will really need to defend levels and pressuring with confidence will not be something that he will ultimately be comfortable in doing. Now… he is explosive enough, powerful enough, young enough and athletic enough to possibly pop back up on some occasions, but at the end of the day, one mistake can be the difference in Maia taking his back and backpacking him for an entire round threatening his neck and pocketing at least that very first round. I know you say, well Lab it’s one round. Well, that one round, I’m Brazil can mean a lot if there is another close round in the mix or if Lyman can’t KO him. The first round to me is going to dictate who wins this fight. Maia will obviously be on full strength looking to secure something quick and Lyman is going to show us if his one Achilles heel will be improved enough to really have something to work with here. Now I will tell you this, I have a good finger on the guys over at TSK and I know for a fact that Mansher Khera is there helping him with his BJJ. “Munch” is an extremely high profile grappler holding a black belt under the “goat” Marcelo Garcia and that is nothing to bat an eyelash at. Now I know that you can’t train someone to roll with someone like Maia in short term, but you can loophole some ability to at least avoid being in bad situations. With that said, Maia is a different animal on the mat and at the end of the day all the training and drilling can all go out the window in real time and that is what truly scares me here. I know what Good can do. My very good friend did all of his nutrition back in his Bellator days. I will be screaming from mountain tops rooting for him but I can’t let my biases get in the way here and Maia dropping his last 3, In Brazil, and possibly being a final curtain call for him at home if he wins can be a major mountain to climb for a kid that has never faced a BJJ player like this on foreign soil. However, Maia is older now and he does tend to get tired. The TSK guys are known for their very high pedigree striking and their outstanding cardio. I am thinking that Lyman is going to be very cautious here in the opening round. Picking his spots very carefully and not over-committing. I think once he sees that Maia's shots to his hips start laboring a pit he will open up and start hitting with some torque in which Maia can be on the wrong end of the wrong punch if that happens. This fight was really a coin flip for me, but I just think the younger guy, with more athletic ability, better cardio, stronger, faster, and more explosive can run away with this one late, but he is going to really have to play the most cautious game of his life in round 1.
The Pick: Lyman Good
Charles Oliveira $8,500 vs. David Teymur $7,700
This is another fight that you really have to take styles into consideration. Teymur and his brother came to us with a very good international KickBoxing Pedigree and feels confidence standing and trading with anyone. Holding a 9-1 Record in MMA only losing his very first fight, David Teymur has shown the ability to make the adjustment and transition to MMA quite well. In his wins, he has had the ability to carry over his threat of the KO with 4 KO’s and 4 Decisions. As we all know, this is MMA and not kickboxing and there are more elements to this game then just trading and that is what concerns me a bit here. Even tho Teymur has shown the ability to stuff takedowns when he really needs to, Oliveira doesn’t really need to have you on the ground to be dangerous in his submission approach. The thing that concerns me with Oliveira is that as talented as he is, and man is he talented, he tends to give up in very tough situations when push comes to shove. Also if you look at his resume and his overall body of work, you will see that he has beat most of the people that he really should beat and then when he gets that one guy that can be a coin flip he loses. He doesn’t lose because they are better, he tends to beat himself in many cases and that is always going to be a question of concern in his career. You can’t teach heart and you can’t extract that warrior spirit if it really isn’t there. It is very easy to jump guard and have your way with someone, but when times get tough is what I want to see and Oliveira has shown the ability to bend and break in certain situations. However, with 25 wins under his belt and 17 coming by way of Submission is a clear indication what kind of player he is on the ground and any time it hits the mat you can expect to see some extremely creative grappling exchanges on his end. Paul Felder was able to finish him in spectacular fashion by strikes and as good as his ground game is, he was matched in that department being submitted by guys like Pettis and Lamas. I think he will need to be very cautious about getting clipped here, but on the ground, Teymur doesn’t give him even a glimmer of fear. I think he uses soft set up striking to close space and find Teymur’s hips. Now, this is where it gets interesting. If Teymur can stay out of range of the shot, will it be a discouraged Oliveira or will he have evolved a bit sticking to the blueprint that he knows will work? I think Teymur will have some success, but I don’t think he can keep Oliveira off him for all 15 minutes here…
The Pick: Oliveira
Johnny Walker $9,200 vs. Justin Ledet $7,000
Walker had a very good clean showing against Roundtree and he has shown the ability to literally rag doll his opposition once he gets you into the clinch. His height and his size allow him to get good angles for knees and crushing elbows off the break. He has also shown the ability to gain very good top position in which he will not hold back on delivering heavy ground strikes. I will say that his cardio is in fact in question and that can be a cause for concern here, especially because Ledet is overall pretty damn durable. Rakic put a beating on him for 3 rounds and the guy did not get stopped inside the horn. Walker is a guy that usually enjoys a nice size advantage. It helps him with his bullying ability to control you wherever he wants to drag you. To be honest he has shown me a lot in the last two fights. OFFENSIVELY. However, defensively he is there to be hit and has also been sparked out. There are still a lot of question marks about this guy. So many touts and analysts see one fight and they start riding fighters jock straps. Did he have a good performance against Roundtree? Yes indeed. But it’s Khalil Fucking Roundtree. People are locking and loading this guy to be the next freak and I think he has a problem on his hands Saturday night and here is why. Justin Ledet started off looking very promising to me as a heavyweight. Great jab, durable, very good boxing, and also solid Grappling. He was a heavyweight that had a lot of very very good and rare tools for a big boy. Still needing much work he never wowed me but he did do some nice things. Then he decides to go down to light heavyweight where the fighters can match that fluency that gave him an advantage as a Heavyweight. They are all faster, more athletic, throws with more speed and lots of pop and they also have the ability to be much more well rounded. Buttttttttt, we really don’t know what Ledet we will see in this fight and here is why. Ledet was losing that fight to Rakic the 1st 30 seconds in I knew it. The first 3 leg kicks that Rakic threw, Ledet literally had no answer to it and you can see the wind float out of his sails early. It seemed as if he knew he couldn’t commit to striking fully because Rakic was going to tear that leg up. What I’m saying is that Ledet was not pulling the trigger on his jab and wasn’t committing to strikes because he didn’t want his leg chewed up anymore. Walker is going to come out blazing in round 1 with flying knees, clinches, elbows off the break and just a barrage of offense. If Ledet can weather that storm then I think the momentum will shift in the very beginning of round 2. Walker will slow down and Ledet will settle into the fight and start finding a home for that jab. He isn’t going to have to worry about the leg kicks as he did with Rakic. Walker throws them but nowhere near with that power or volume. Rakic lives and does with them. So I think Ledet will be able to commit a little more, open up in space, get into a groove and possibly do some work in stealing some rounds with his slick boxing. He also has a very very serviceable ground game that actually has been more successful in his finishes then boxing has been. In any event, it will come down to the very 1st round and how Ledet handles it. You will know very early the outcome of this fight. Either Ledet gets waxed very early or Ledet lasts, Settles into the fight and uses that jab to keep Walker honest.
This honestly is a coin toss fight like a lot of them. You can be on either side, the arguments can be made for both fighters. I just see more value on Ledet getting out of the first and making it interesting here.
The Pick: Ledet
Livia Renata Souza $9,100 vs. Sarah Frota $7,100
This is a fight that can be better than expected if Frota can find a way to start getting off. I say “IF” because Souza does not give you that much space to work. She is constantly pressing forward looking to land that big overhand right and she is not afraid to close space quickly and recklessly to get it. Beating someone like Souza it takes patience and understanding of time and windows. If she fails on her striking attempts she has an extremely good and aggressive grappling game to lean on if push comes to shove. The Black Belt in BJJ holds 8 submissions, 2 KOs, and 2 decisions in her 12 wins. So even tho her aggression in striking can put you on your heels, her comfort zone is def on the ground where she can secure something to finish things from the ground. Now don’t get it twisted, Frota is extremely capable on the ground but she has a piston of a left hand that she is quite confident in as well. At 9-0 she has 5 wins by submission, 2 by KO, and 2 by decision and she figures to be able to match Souza but it isn’t going to be easy with the pace that she sets in. She isn’t a super explosive fighter and sometimes she can actually be a little robotic at times and plodding. Unless she stuns Souza with something coming in I find it hard for her to match the pace of Souza. I see Souza overwhelming her a little too much, staying low and just finding spots blindly and recklessly until she secures a position she likes. She will have to be a little more cautious than she was with Alex Chambers but at the end of the day, it's Souza non-stop pace that will ultimately set the tone and be the deciding factor in this one.
The Pick: Souza
Anthony Hernandez $8,900 vs. Markus Perez $7,300
This is a clash of 2 former LFA fighters. Hernandez made quick work in his contender series showing by earning a KO in the opening moments of the very first round. He was explosive, powerful, and got to the spots at all the correct times. Outside of his striking, he does also have an aware submission game, but that is something that is still highly untested due to the competition he has faced. The 7-0 fighter has only been out of the 1st round 1 time but has proven the ability to go 5 in a decision win before making his way into the big show. However, 6 fights ending in the 1st round is great but it is also a little bit of a flag to me especially against a guy like Perez. Another flag to me is that he has 4 of his 7 wins by way of submission, 2 by way of KO and 1 by way of Decision which was the time he went all 5. But Perez has never been finished and I think it is fair to say that Perez has the more slick submission game to his toolbox. At 10-2 even tho they both have 4 submissions to their merit it just seems that Perez is the slicker of the 2 on the ground and he actually prefers to be there. His striking is nothing to scoff at because he can be dynamic with some of his approaches but it is most likely a battle that he will win against a guy like Perez who is very confident in his striking patterns. However, I do believe that Perez has a very good chance in getting this to the ground if he is smart enough to get it there. Some fighters as you know will tend to play the game of the other opponent and that is something that happens far too often and really isn’t to wise. I think they are putting a little too much steam behind Hernandez here and although I think he has some good chops, Perez has fought the better of the competition and has yet to be stopped by any of his only losses which include hard-hitting bruiser Erik Anders and Andrew Sanchez. I think if Hernandez applies pressure and keeps this standing then he can and most likely will win this fight, but if Perez can get this on the ground then I just think he plays a little game of top that in positioning and he may be able to edge this one out here. I am going to put my faith in the dog here and believe that his durability, his caution to the wind, and his ability to create things on the ground will serve their purposes if he is smart enough to follow that blueprint.
The Pick: Perez
Taila Santos $8,600 vs. Mara Romero Borella $7,600
I am not sure I agree with this line here but let's continue. Borella comes into enemy soil from Italy. By all rhymes and reasons, I am a Ginzo and it isn’t every day we have Good Italian based fighters in MMA so it would be nice to see her do well. With that said, there were 2 sides of her coin that needs to be assessed. On one side she showed clearly smooth and tricky grappling in her debut match in which I actually picked her to win that fight and she did so by submission. Then she came back to fight Chookagian and she decided to play the stand-up game with her which did not really end up well. She looked a little lost on her feet in that fight. She became frustrated and it seemed she just couldn’t get what she wanted. Santos is a fighter that will do much of the same at a little lesser skill set. She will utilize leg kicks to keep Borella at bay and she will also use her rangey striking game to keep Borella honest. At 15-0 I think it is safe to say that Santos record is padded but at the end of the day she can fight and she does have a skill set. There is a concern of Borella being able to drag this to the floor and working her ground game with her long frame, but she needs to clear space to do that and I don’t know if Santos is going to give her those clean looks she needs and if you don’t have those clean looks then you must create. If you can’t create then your not getting in. I’m not sure Borella is creative enough to make those situations live for herself. I think Santos wins this one standing.
The Pick: Santos
Max Griffin $9,000 vs. Thiago Alves $7,200
Max Griffin is one of those guys that will look fantastic in one fight where you think that he's turning a corner and then look like complete dog shit in his next fight. His resume indicates that with a fluctuation of up and down reds and greens. As of late, he is falling victim to beating all the guys that he should, but the minute he is fighting someone that is a real challenge, he tends to dump. He will beat the Erik Montano’s, David Mitchell’s, and the Mike Perry’s of the world, but once he fights someone like Covington, dos Santos, and Millender he will nose dove into a loss. He is fighting a guy that in this stage of his career is on the fringe of being both of those people on max griffins resume. At one time a big name with very technical striking, but aging enough where the time has slowed him down in the process. Almost making him mediocre again. However, he still has that technical game and enough pop to give Griffin problems. But you wonder if at this stage of the game Alves style is just too Old World for new world MMA. I say this because I haven’t seen a new wrinkle in Alves game in a very long time. You know exactly what you are getting and he will never wow you with a new wrinkle that makes you say “damn I never seen him do that before.” You know your getting a straight up kickboxing match and even tho Griffin can’t hang with him technically, he is young enough, sharp enough, and powerful enough to put Alves on his heels plenty of times in this fight if he approaches it correctly. I’m usually much more a technical guy then I am a youth guy. But in this situation, I think the youth just shows more in volume and damage to pocket rounds and ultimately get the nod at the end of the fight.
The Pick: Griffin
Junior Albini $8,100 vs. Jair Rozenstruik $8,100
How this fight even made the card is beyond me. On one side, you have a guy with a diaper, and on the other side, you have a poor man’s Derrick Lewis with zero ground game. The odds couldn’t be set more perfectly here. If you think I’m going to go through this big breakdown on this one, you are mistaking. There is no analysis that anyone can tell you that will prepare you for a prediction for this fight. Not a single one. So if someone is like “I told you he would win” then you should honestly smack them in the mouth, delete them from Twitter, and never take them seriously again. Rozenstruik is basically a fighter that belongs in old school King of The Cage. Throws a lot of heat and looks for to take your head off but UFC caliber he is not. 6-0 with only 1 fighter having a winning record doesn’t provide evidence to me on film or resume that there is any reason for him to be fighting unless he is just a filler on the card. Albini at least has been there and fought stiffer competition. Maybe he didn’t win but he did beat Tim Johnson and he did go distance with an aging PitBull and as far as getting caught in that ezekiel choke from Oliniak? Who hasn’t really? Is he good? Nope. Would you ever trust a grown man that wears a diaper? Ok then. However, given both men’s skill set, I have to go with the guy who has been to the show before and fought the stiffer of the competition and actually knows the process and obligations beforehand, alleviating much less stress in the buildup.
The Pick: Albini
Geraldo de Freitas $8,400 vs. Felipe Colares $7,800
Another fight that doesn’t make all that much sense to me even tho I am not hating on either of these guys. However, I get it. It’s in Brazil and you are trying to showcase as many Brazilians as you can. Both men are coming in pretty dominant in their regional organizations. Jungle Fight and Shooto Brazil. Colares is undefeated but you really need to understand that it still is the Brazilian circuit just like Freitas is 11-4 with a slightly cushioned resume in my eyes. Colares is coming from Nogs camp so you know right off the bat that his grappling is going to be somewhat on point but he just seems a little more sloppy to me. I’m the small film that I have watched there is no center line with him. He will either stay too labored or he will engage with no real purpose to serve. It’s almost like “what happens, happens… I’ll see what it looks like when I get in there.” That may be ok for this fight because they are both lower level fighters but that approach can’t and won’t last long as he climbs the ladder. I’m not sitting here saying that Freitas is any better because he is not much better in my eyes. With that said, he has a little bit more of a maturity in patience to his game that can really hold him steady in the process of a storm of Colares. There isn’t much to really rip here. Both debuting fighters who, in my opinion, will have their chances to win this fight, but I do believe the overzealous nature of Colares and the physically imposing mindset that he may have will ultimately work in the favor of Freitas in this one.
The Pick: Freitas
Said Nurmagomedov $8,200 vs. Ricardo Ramos $8,000
Both men are coming in with identical records at 12-1. This is going to be a super fun fight. Ramos is an extremely slick Grappling savant with a decent striking game. The Brazilian will throw some dynamic striking, including spinning backfists, but there isn’t a question that his BJJ is where his home is. The only issue with him is that for such a young fighter, his cardio does seem to fall off the ledge a bit and that is something that makes me wonder if it’s just in his genetics to lose gas quicker than he should. It doesn’t affect him in ways where he looks dead but I have seen him slow down in the past. Nurm on the flip side puts on a very even pace with good cardio, but we have seen him caught and we have also seen him give up many positional exchanges on the ground and that is a real cause for concern here. He is long and wiry. He will throw a host of kicks and strikes but will not think twice about going ground. Once he is there his hips are moving but against someone like Ramos on the ground, you better be moving in the right direction. I am expecting this fight to at some point end up on the ground and even tho this is basically flip a coin, in Brazil, the fans behind Ramos, and the ability he has on the ground to really control time…. I have to give him a slight lean here.
The Pick: Ramos
Magomed Bibulatov $9,400 vs. Rogério Bontorin $6,800
When you watch both men fight they do have a similar style but the difference is that Bibulatov seems a little more 2.0 then Bontorin. Bontorin does like to throw hands but his best work is his variety of ways he can submit you. He will look for standing rear nakeds and others once it hits the ground. He is very aggressive in his approach to seal you in but he won’t use his submissions as a means to an end. He will engage very hard in the pocket and if you aren’t willing to draw your weapons out of their holsters than he can obviously get the better of those exchanges putting you in a very vulnerable position. The thing with Bibulatov is that he is very much like this in his own right but he just does it at a little bit higher of a clip and much more confidently. He really comes in with a purpose. He doesn’t look for openings and then go. He moves forward with a purpose looking to get whatever it is he is trying to take. Whether it is crashing the pocket to get in on your hips or just trying to smother you with a barrage of strikes. He is very calculated in the terms of fully commuting to whatever he decides to do. As far as a calculated approach, that isn’t his game. In order to match his tenacity you need to really short circuit him and send a signal early. Moraga was able to flatline him when he was actually playing a point game with him. It seemed that Bib was trying to stay patient and that really isn’t his game. He paid for it against a Savvy vet, but you learn from your losses and I am expecting him to bounce back here with a much better performance.
The Pick: Bibulatov
- Moraes $8,800
I do believe that Moraes is much more comfortable coming into this fight against Raphael, However, from a DraftKings prospective, I do give pause when you see his drop off in accumulated points when fights go to the cards. With that said, he is getting another 2 rounds to bucket here, but without a finish and a lot of volume, it can be cutting it close. I will not be avoiding him here because I do think his chances to win are good. I also am very partial to 5 round fights, but just approach knowing those facts.
- Assuncao $7,400
There is Clear Value here. $7,400 in a 5 round fight with a win will surely hit its mark. Assuncao is averaging a little below that in 3 rounds. Even tho this fight is a coin flip to me and I did pick Moraes, avoiding Assuncao at this value would be foolish. I do encourage you to play both sides of this fight and do not fade Assuncao.
- Moicano $8,300
The kid is dangerous, young, sharp, and crafty. His value is good here and I can see why people are leaning on him a bit here. Aldo has had 2 faces as of late and we aren’t sure if the Aldo of old will show up or the Mentally riddled Aldo will creep back in here taking over his motor functions and ability to stay loose. I wouldn’t say he is a bad play at this value. The kid is as game as it gets, so a taste of him is in order, but I just think in Brazil, Aldo comes in and does what Aldo does with a little bolt of confidence from his last fight.
- Aldo $7,900
He will be the smaller man in there and he is going to need to stay on his bike here. He will have to use speed, footwork, and he MUST use his kicks that he is known for if he wants to win this fight. Aldo announced his retirement at the end of 2019. All signs are pointing to him with a possible rematch with Conor as his farewell fight at the end of the year if he can tie some wins together. It's hard to go against him in Brazil and at $7,900 he will work his way onto some of my roster for sure.
- Maia $8,700
It's so hard to fade Maia man… It really is… The guy is the human backpack and despite his last 3 loses against stud wrestlers he usually has no problem getting you to the ground and doing some work. I wouldn’t consider Lyman a good wrestler or BJJ guy at all, but he does have high octane cardio and he also holds youth and a ton of power. The reason why I am saying not to look away from Maia here is that the 1st round will be everything to him. If he fails on his takedowns then you can expect him to really get tired with much more labored attempts. He is going to shoot and he is going to shoot fast. If he gets this thing to the ground in the first then Lyman could be in some real serious trouble. But if it goes out of the first then youth, explosion and power can, in fact, start to show its head. All Maia’s Value really sits in round one here…
- Good $7,500
This fight is a fight that Lyman really needs to move forward in the division. Everyone is really shitting on his wrestling but I think what people fail to keep in mind is that he was able to throw caution to the wind with other men. Knowing that “Munch” has been working with him feverishly gives me somewhat of a piece of mind here. I know it isn’t the popular pick at all, but I just keep seeing Good all week getting this one done… At $7,500, I'm willing to take a few swings on him in GPP. I am not expecting him to be highly owned here and if he can stuff some takedowns, get out of the first round, the kid hits like an absolute truck and is very athletic and big for the division…
- Oliveira $8,500
You know what you are getting with him. Boom or Bust. He has a tendency of giving up if the chips aren’t falling his way. Teymur can def do that to him if he can keep this standing where he loves it and where he holds a clear cut advantage. You must remember that if you roster him you are playing with fire, but the upside for a submission is in fact there.
- Teymur $7,700
The price is nice on Teymur if he can keep this fight standing. As the fight goes on the chances of him keeping it standing are much better. That is when you will see Oliveira start to break. But even tho Teymur has a good takedown defense he will have to really stay on his bike to keep Oliveira off him. The price should be a lot closer and the window is there for him to win this fight. It's a fight that you really need to think about before rostering. I will tread lightly on this one altogether I think.
- Walker $9,200
This doesn’t make sense to me… I don’t understand why so much faith in this guy after a win against Roundtree… Doesn’t make sense to me… You will need a 1st round finish here and I am not willing to bank on that… Especially if Ledet can get that jab going…
- Ledet $7,000
There is really good value here. If he gets out of the 1st round here, then Ledet can really start motoring his jab and stiffing up Walker. Walker is very unknown in the later rounds and Ledet has shown the ability to be durable and even last in the process of a beating. I don’t think Walker is Rakic and I think Ledet has a better showing here. I will be targeting him in some lineups.
- Souza $9,100
I like her to win here, but $9,100 is a little scary to me here. I will have some tastes of her but I def won’t be going overboard.
- Frota $7,100
I know she came in heavy and I know the history behind coming in heavy. I just don’t see her beating Souza…
- Hernandez $8,900
Very tough and explosive kid, but $8,900 is a little concerning against a guy that is VERY hard to finish. I'm not feeling this kid at this price. I want finishes at that price.
- Perez $7,300
At $7,300, I really feel like he is a live dog. His durability and his sneaky grappling chops make him intriguing. I don’t mind a few sprinkles of him.
- Griffin $9,000 / Alves $7,200
(I personally think I don’t need this fight. It can be a lethargic kickboxing match here.)
- Albini $8,100 / Rozenstruik $8,100
If you roster this fight then you know what you do here due to the price. My lean is Albini because I just don’t know or see any reason that the UFC would even roster this guy. He is a powerful guy but outside of that he really has nothing outside of that. Albini is garbage too, but at least he has seen the stage before and has fought the better competition.
- Freitas $8,400 / Colares $7,800
This is a fight that is really too close for comfort here. It is a fight that you really need to tread lightly if you decide to roster. Personally, I think I am sitting back and watching this one. I get it if you are in a large field GPP, but being on the right side is very very touch and go.
- Nurmagomedov $8,200 / Ramos $8,000
Another fight that you need to really mind your P’s and Q’s. My lean here is Ramos and I will have more of him then I do Nurmag. Nurmag is long and will throw some dynamic kicks so it will be Ramos’ job to manage his way into range to get this to the floor. Nurmag’s wrestling is very suited and equipped so it won’t be easy for Ramos here, but gun to head I think Ramos gets this done, but you need to proceed with caution in this fight and play smart.
- Bibulatov $9,400
He is expensive and I get we did see him get caught by Moraga, but I think it was a learning experience for him and I think that loss did him very well. On a card that most fights can go either way and there is value everywhere, I have no problems with paying up for him in spots. I wouldn’t go crazy but get him in some of your rosters.
- Bontorin $6,800
I don’t see Bib dropping 2 straight… I'm off…
@MadlabMMA (MMA) 178-68 in last 246 (72.35%)
TOTAL: +101.3 UNITS
Be careful with this card guys….. This is an extremely tough card for betting. All tough fights in Brazil… Not a card to bury a stack in…
Moraes -150 (1.5 to win 1)
Aldo +130 (1 to win 1.3)
Good +165 (.5 to win .825)
Oliveira -120 (1.2 to win 1)
Ledet +177 (.5 to win .885)
Souza -200 (2 units to win 1)
Perez +135 (.5 to win .675)
Santos -165 (1.65 to win 1)
Griffin -192 (1.92 to win 1)
Albini -115 (1.15 to win 1)
De Freitas -120 (No Play)
Bibulatov -320 (parlay)
Ramos -140 (1.4 to win 1)
1.25 Units to win 1.21