MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Shenzhen Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying.
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What’s up Y’all. This may be the worst card I have seen in a very long time. These cards can be fun, but this is really UFC-Regional. There are so many no-name fighters, debut fighters, and just not very good fighters or matchups. I kept this article short because you really can’t talk much about it. There will not even be a pod for this one this week, because I honestly think it’s pointless. It’s at 3am, and I would not bury heavy bankroll at all here. I almost look at this card like a night off, to be honest. It is just not good. So tread lightly and play very safe.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT MAIN CARD
Jessica Andrade $8700 vs. Weili Zhang $7500 TITLE FIGHT
This can be a bit more of an interesting fight then we all think, but at the end of the day, I think the outcome will be the way we all think as well. Zhang is a very good rising prospect, but at the end of the day, when you really look at it, the fight is in China and she is the only hometown fighter that is in line for a title sniff. So at that point, she fits the mold for a serviceable main event. She is pretty well rounded but this is a major jump in competition for her. At 19-1, her last fight against Teccia Torres showed us that she is ready to swim with the sharks of the division. Even tho Torres is on the decline, she is tough and very well respected in the division. Zhang has shown the ability to strike, be creative, and her grappling has checked out as well. With 9 KOS and 7 Submissions, Zhang looks to get things done inside the horn. With that said there is no way that she is going to have the success that she did against Torres. Andrade is going to be in her face until Zhang either succeeds or fails her. Andrade puts on a very good pace and although her striking can be concerning in some spots. She has the ability to use it to her advantage to get in on peoples hips and do what she does best and that is throw down some serious ground and pound that many people just can’t deal with. I see this fight being very competitive until Andrade starts to really wear on Zhang with pressure. I think once Zhang sees that Andrade isn’t taking a backstep that it will start to way on her. I will say that if this fight goes to the cards and it’s close, we may have to buckle our seatbelts for a shady decision. But with that said, I don’t think Andrade leaves any thought in the judges’ minds who won the fight; if it gets that far.
The Pick: Andrade
Li Jingliang $7000 vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $9200
I like this fight for the first few rounds. I say that because I think the death of this fight will be Jing’s gas tank. It has been a clear pattern with him that he comes out as a huge threat to anyone, but as the clock starts to dwindle, he tends to slow down his pace. With a 16-5 record, he brings a very fun pace that will give up his body for potential fight of the night in all of his outings. With 6 KOs and 5 submissions, he finishes fights more times than not. In 5 losses, he has only been finished once. It’s not his durability that worries me. It’s his drop off in output as his cardio starts to fade. He will take on an extremely durable and tough fighter in dos Santos. With a 25-5 record, dos Santos has 13 KOS and 3 submissions; in his 5 losses, he has never been KO’d but has been submitted twice. He brings very crisp and dynamic striking due to his Capoeira background, and he ties his punches together very well. If this fight goes to the ground, he has a very tight game with good ability to grapple offensively and defensively. Don’t look at his 2 submission losses. They stem back from 2013. The problem with this fight for me is where it is and where it goes. I believe we may be looking at a decision here, and in China, that can be dicey. However, I can’t worry about where the judges go; I need to assess who I think is going to rightfully win the fight, and I believe that dos Santos is going to be the more active fighter down the stretch, earning him the victory down the stretch.
The Pick: dos Santos
Kai Kara-France $9100 vs. Mark De La Rosa $7100
Not too crazy about the price here, but I do believe the rightful winner is picked. KKF is a very good fighter that is getting better but is still very raw. He has extremely tight striking and he proved it with half of his wins by way of KO. with a 19-7 record, KKF likes to take care of business on his feet but he does have the ability to play in the sandbox with you. In his 7 losses, he has finished 4 of them with a split of 2-2. If you like a volume and active striker, you will like KKF, but the issue I have with this price is that De La Rosa knows that he really doesn’t want to stand in this fight. So the BJJ Black Belt is going to really try to get this fight to the ground and do what he does. With an 11-2 record, Del has 6 wins by way of submission and in his 2 losses has been finished 1 time by submission. If he takes KKF down and has the success to keep him there, That can take away valuable volume from KKF in a draft kings setting for that price. With that said, KKF, as I mentioned above, has the ability to grapple defensively enough to get to his feet and get working again. So although I am not sure to the extent that KKF will have success staying on his feet, I think he does enough to get this one done.
The Pick: KKF
Zhenhong Lu $6700 vs. Movsar Evloev $9500
These guys actually fought once before and it was much more competitive than I expect this one to be. In their first fight, it just seems that Lu could not stop the pressure wrestling of Evloev. With a 16-6 record, Lu is coming in for his debut off a loss and who knows the shape he will be in due to being summoned on short notice. Evloev is a young prospect and former M1 champion that at 26 years old he has all the potential ahead of him if he continues to dial in and grow. With an 11-0 record, he has 3 wins by KO and 4 by way of submission. This fight can get interesting because I am expecting Evloev to dictate the terms here and get this to the ground on multiple occasions. The $9500 price tag is tough the swallow, but I think he can hit that mark if he really dials in on Lu’s hips and stays committed to it.
The Pick: Evloev
Yanan Wu $7900 vs. Mizuki Inoue $8300
The price here doesn’t make sense. I think Inoue should be a bigger favorite. Inoue just seems like the better fighter. She has good pressure, steady pace and well-groomed on the ground. With a 13-5 record, she has 9 wins by submission and none by way of KO. Wu brings a good pace on the feet and is much more of a striker. With a 10-2 record, she does most of her handy work finishing on her feet where she has finished 6 of them by way of KO. I am expecting Wu to have success on the feet but still not enough to give Inoue looks that she cant handle. I am confident that no matter where this goes Inoue should be the more advantageous fighter. The only issue that Inoue will have is her being the much undersized fighter but I don’t see that being extremely problematic in a fight that she is much more well rounded in all aspects of the game. Her cardio will make up for the size as the fight comes down the stretch.
The Pick: Inoue
UFC FIGHT NIGHT UNDERCARD
Anthony Hernandez $8800 vs. Jun Yong Park $7400
At 7-1, Hernandez is a contender series fighter who rooted out of LFA. With 4 submissions and 2 KOs, he likes to bang, and from what I can see, he is exciting but extremely raw. In his 1 loss, he was submitted, and even tho he has 4 submissions, I like him standing. There is a double-edged sword there tho because if he trades, he exposes himself to be taken as well. Even tho he hasn’t been finished by strikes, its because he hasn’t fought the top tier guys that understand how to really capitalize on that. Eventually, he is going to expose himself to a very bad situation. Park is a middle of the road 9-3 fighter with 4 KOS and 3 Submissions. In his 3 loses he was submitted 1 time and has never been finished by strikes. He is much more of a traditional style striker with decent pace and pressure, but he really doesn’t bait or create angles. His style is pretty straight forward and making reads and adjustments is not something that is mandated unless he is obviously winning in the exchanges. I think Park is better on the feet but Hernandez needs to shake him off and put him on notice early in order to make him think twice. Both men are extremely raw but I do think the UFC likes Hernandez here and is giving the South Korean a chance to roll here but I think the matchup favors Hernandez here.
The Pick: Hernandez
Derrick Krantz $8000 vs. Kenan Song $8200
Derrick Krantz comes if the more experienced fighter to a point. He has more fights overall but fewer fights in the UFC. Song has the more experience in the UFC, but that doesn’t mean much here because they both are not party crashers. Both men like to stand and trade but I would say that Song is a little more calculated where Krantz throws a little more caution to the win. Krantz will dig in and sit in the pocket with you and play welcome a wild leather exchange where Song is going to pop in the pocket and then pop out when the fireworks start exploding around him. The problem with Krantz is that when you are at this level of MMA even tho they aren’t very good fighters, If you fight a little more reckless your opposition should really understand how to read that and capitalize. I am not saying Song will be able to sit patiently and be able to do that, but he should. Kenan has 12 finishes with 13 fights, so as labored as he can be sometimes, he does look for the finish. Krantz is similar in fashion with 10 KOs and 11 Submissions in 23 fights. So Krantz has more tools and technically more experience, but I think people are leaning on his record a bit much. He is not as good as his record shows and as I said in the past records can be deceiving. He is not bad in any stretch of the imagination but he without a doubt has an inflated record and I believe both of these men have a little war on their hands but in China, I think Song pulls off a close one here.
The Pick: Kenan Song
Karol Rosa $7800 vs. Lara Procopio $8400
I actually refuse to go into hard detail on a lot of these fights, but this one is just horrible. Seriously. I feel like this card should be called UFC REGIONAL. I’m not even joking. Procopio is lost on her feet and needs to live and die on the ground. No head movement, no footwork, and just extremely one dimensional, the Shooto fighter from Brazil is 6-0 with 2 submissions and 1 KO. As bad as she is on the feet, She can do some nice things on the ground, but it’s not going to be easy for Lara to keep this standing considering Rosa is a is big enough and long enough to keep this standing and put Lara in spots that she just isn’t comfortable with. If it hits the ground for a long period then I can eat my words here, but I don’t think it does for long.
The Pick: Rosa
Heili Alateng $7700 vs. Danaa Batgerel $8500
Welcome to another horrible fight. Both of these guys are not very good. Both of those guys really aren’t going to be safe to really wager on like most of this card. In the film I have watched, it seems to me that you really have to go with the more active fighter in this one. For the most part, I think it will be an ugly looking fight that I am not too interested in playing. But I’ll take a flier on Batgerel from what I have seen.
The Pick: Batgerel
Damir Ismagulov $9000 vs. Thiago Moises $7200
This is a tough fight for me to call because both men have equalizers on the ground. Damir is a push forward fighter that understands that his bread and butter is utilizing his striking and feints to get in on your hips and smother you. He has a very good rinse and repeat way about him, and he will chain together takedowns until he gets a good firm grasp of where he wants to be. In turn, he has shown me on film the ability to get reversed and lose position but he will somehow manage to gain positive position at some point in the fight. He does have very good power and does understand how to finish a fight whether it be on the feet or during a good ground and pound exchange. With an 18-2 record, 9 of his wins have been by KO and only 1 by way of submission. His wrestling game is position and not submission. In his 2 losses, he has been KO’d once. My concern here is that Moises is a very good grappler in his own right, even tho his 12-3 record does not really expose that. The guy is well versed on the ground. With 3 KOs and 4 Submissions, Moises has never been stopped. Where I am concerned about is that Ismagulov may put himself in a position that will allow Moises to take over in a positive spot that can actually keep him firm. It’s a tough spot to be in from a picking perspective but I am going to go Damir here. I think he is good enough to stay safe and apply enough pressure in which will keep Moises to really get his offensive ground game into a flow. He may in spots but it will be small windows and that may not be enough here.
The Pick: Ismagulov
Jung Da Un $6900 vs. Khadis Ibragimov $9300
Un is a very strange fighter to watch. After seeing his record I was expecting to watch this guy that is just a wild man striker that is looking to take your head off. With a 10-2 record and 8 KOs. He is fairly the opposite way. He is much more calculated and he isn’t going to give you a war. He is a counter striker with power and output that in a DK setting its KO or bust to me in a sense. He does understand range, and he does seem fundamentally fit with combos and power, but I have never seen him really stormed to see if that patience and calculated patterns will hold true. Ibragimov is going to bring that; a very straight forward, in your face fighter who, if you do not have that ability to sit back and be patient, then you will have no choice but to get dirty with him. I am yet to see if Un can be disciplined enough to do that. Khadis comes in at 8-0, and despite his style of fighting, the Sambo Practitioner from Russia has 2 KOS and 3 submissions to his merit. He does seem to be more well rounded and his grappling is at his advantage here but having the advantage on the ground means nothing if you can’t get it there. I’m curious about that. However, his output and his pressure may be the edge here, but I wouldn’t be surprised either way. I am still riding with Ibragimov.
The Pick: Ibragimov
Su Mudaerji $7600 vs. Andre Soukhamthath $8600
This fight seems as if AS is just set to win if he can stay smart and do what he does best. The key phrase here tho is “stay smart.” He has the tools and he has the ability to be a decent fighter, but he does tend to send question marks through me when he does some of the things that he does. He will be fighting a debuting fighter in Su that is a prime example of a question mark cushioned record. With a 9-3 record, he has 8 by way of KO. In his 3 losses, he has been submitted all 3 times. He’s on a two-fight losing streak, including his last fight in which was Smolka. It makes you wonder why the UFC is granting him this spot. AS really should be able to outclass this kid in all avenues of this fight, but his IQ in the cage does worry me if I have to be honest. With that said, this is really his fight to win or lose and I will be very surprised if he doesn’t take advantage of this opportunity to add another win to his resume here.
The Pick: Soukhamthath
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DRAFTKINGS
Jessica Andrade $8700
I will be putting a lot of weight here. I think at sub $9k they are underselling her a bit.
Weili Zhang $7500
I like her, and I think she is very tough, but I don’t think she is Andrade tough. With that said, it is on her soil and you have no idea how the cards will read if it gets there. I will be backing myself here for that reason.
Li Jingliang $7000
I think his price here is nuts, to be honest, even tho I see him losing. However, if he gets it done, he will blow the gasket off his value. I will dip here.
dos Santos $9200
Pricey for me here in a dangerous fight, but he can cover with the volume he throws and Li is going to bring that out in him. He is worth a few spots.
I am staying away here. Something scares me about this matchup. I picked him to win, but I think it’s going to be a close fight.
De La Rosa $7100
Small share here. There is paths even tho I am picking him to lose. He does have an inside track to win.
Zhenhong Lu $6700
I’m fading him here. This is Evloev’s fight to win or lose.
Movsar Evloev $9500
Super high price and may drive his ownership down. It is going to make you dumpster dive a bit, but on a card like that, I don’t mind taking swings. I’ll have some.
Yanan Wu $7900 / Mizuki Inoue $8300
Not a fight that I am super interested in, but back against the wall and I need some cap room, I am going Inoue in a few spots
Anthony Hernandez $8800
I am not confident here at all, but I do see some upside here. Hernandez looks to finish even if he can’t. He is young and has something to prove. Although reckless at times, on a card like this, I will take a chance.
Jun Yong Park $7400
I am not excited here.
Derrick Krantz $8000 / Kenan Song $8200
A fight that can have some good upside. Pricing is good both ways, and you can mix and match without disturbing much of your other roster seats. I will have more of Song but not much more.
Karol Rosa $7800 / Lara Procopio $8400
I may go very light on Rosa because I think it’s going to be grossly overlooked. Both are so bad, but Rosa has the chops on the feet and can possibly finish Lara if she keeps it there.
Heili Alateng $7700 / Danaa Batgerel $8500
No interest here.
Damir Ismagulov $9000
His upside is big with the chain wrestling end of it. I can see many people taking some swings on Moises here, and I can’t blame them, but that is a good time to feed on some shares. Very tough fight, but you need to take some chances, and I am willing to here.
Thiago Moises $7200
There is no shame in rostering him. He does have the chops to make something happen, and I think he is very undervalued here. I like Damir to win, but Moises is much better than a $7200 dog. Don’t sleep on it.
Jung Da Un $6900
I’m off here.
Khadis Ibragimov $9300
I will have some here. I think his volume and pace will be too much for Un. Not a fight that I am super confident with, but in GPP, if they aren’t going $9500, chances are they’re not having the confidence here for $200 less. This could leave a cushion of under ownership.
Su Mudaerji $7600
Good power, but I see Andre walking this kid down.
Andre Soukhamthath $8600
I like him in this spot, and I also think he has some upside. He is not extremely cage savvy in there, but if he doesn’t make a boneheaded decision, he could have a good night. Be careful here but proceed lightly.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT PRIZE PICKS
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