MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Rio Rancho Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT MAIN CARD
Corey Anderson $8900 vs. Jan Blachowicz $7300
This is a rematch between these two gentlemen. In the first fight, it was clear who had the speed advantage. Anderson was more nimble and just seemed to get to the spots much better and quicker. It was Jan who was able to change the terms of the engagement because he is a little more well rounded in his entirety. So changing from the clinch position, to open space fighting, and then trying to take it to the ground were all things that he really tried to mix in on Corey. However, Corey wasn’t too far behind him then and his speed made up for the gap in some of his deficiencies. Anderson was able to just get to the spots and Jan’s hips at will, and given Corey’s wrestling background, it seems to be clear that things may not change here unless he gets caught in which we saw that happen. However, Jan is not a power machine. Although he does have power, he isn’t someone that is looking for the home run. He ties things together and will explode in spurts, and even when he does so, there is less behind it then it actually looks. He has a better ration of Decisions (10), Submissions (9) and KO (6). His black belt in BJJ is where he finds comfort, but with Anderson’s wrestling and explosive ability, he may have some issues here. He is going to have his moments, and given the past situations that we have seen with Corey’s chin, anything is possible. With that said, I just can’t look away from the speed advantage and also the growth of Anderson’s game on top of it. He seems to be coming into his own right now, and a win against Jan will put him in firing range to exactly where he needs to be, aligning him for a shot at something very soon.
The Pick: Anderson
Diego Sanchez $7700 vs. Michel Pereira $8500
How do you not love Diego Sanchez? The guy is literally one of the building blocks to what the UFC is today. As strange as he is, it just seems to work for him. His outlook on life, his way of thinking, and the mindset that he puts himself in are second to none. From sensory deprivation tanks to odd meditation techniques, Diego has done it all, and to be quite honest, it must work because he is one of the only people left from the original gang. With that said, all these techniques and all these ways of thinking will not stop father time. The old Diego may rear its head once in a while, but the breaking down of the body is apparent and it’s always going to be an issue as time goes on. His chin has shown the most weakness in his game as of late, and his coordination has also faltered a bit even tho it was never really that good, to begin with. However, the one golden ticket that he does have is his cardio, which is absolutely still off the charts even at his age. He will need it if he wants to hang in there against a wild cat in Pereira. Pereira is a wild card who throws extremely dynamic approaches at you that you really can’t just dial in and adjust to. His game is based on elements and surprise. He walks you onto things, and if you’re not braced and biting down on that mouthpiece, the chances are you’re going to be clipped and out. He incorporates extremely odd yet explosive movements that even the most athletic can’t quite figure him out. The key to beating him is just hard grinding, hard nose, straight ahead, blue-collar pressure. Make it ugly and make it nasty. You don’t want to dance with him, and you don’t want to play the cat and mouse game with him because you just won’t win that way. Diego has that style, but he will need to weather a 1st round firefight in order to get there. If Diego’s chin wasn’t so fragile, I would lean on him full tilt, because he has the perfect style to work him over. The fight is going to go one of two ways here. Diego gets starched early, or he withstands the pressures in the cage for the 1st round and uses his cardio and tenacity to put it on late. I am leaning towards Pereira here, but Diego at home in front of his people is a scary task to bet against. So I would be careful here.
The Pick: Pereira
Montana De La Rosa $8700 vs. Mara Romero Borella $7500
This should be a very good fight between these two girls, but the issue with me here is they both like to tango on the ground. Borella has shown extremely slick grappling and a thirst to go there especially when she feels she is losing footing on the feet. The blue belt in BJJ def has some chops above her rank partially due to her black belt in JUDO, but she is going to run into some problems if she gets too cute against De La Rosa, who is a more polished BJJ player and is a three-time All American in wrestling. The combination of wrestling and BJJ will keep her safe, give her control, and allow her to take a few more chances than Borella, who sometimes seems a bit lost on her back. De La Rosa also has documented her comfort in her submission game with 8 out of 10 coming by the way of submission. It’s a good matchup but one where Borella is just going to leave a few more windows open that De La Rosa can and should capitalize on.
The Pick: De La Rosa
Brok Weaver $9200 vs. Kazula Vargas $7000
This fight is really not one that is just doesn’t seem like any of them are tied together very well. Vargas throws with some good heat with 6 KOs in 10 wins but it just seems he is unlaced in his shoes when he throws. He seems very jerky when he lets his hands go. Weaver is a little more set back and disciplined but he doesn’t have the same power as Vargas. I think Weaver is the more consistent fighter here and he should win this fight. But he is a decision machine in spots so his price tag is a smidge high for me.
The Pick: Weaver
Ray Borg $8300 vs. Rogerio Bontorin $7900
I don’t know about this one. I get that Bontorin is a very good grappler, but to be favored against a guy as slippery on the ground as Ray Borg is kind of hard to believe that the DK numbers are this close. Bon is 16-1 with 10 by way of submission, and although that is intriguing, I find it extremely hard to believe he is going to catch Borg in a scramble. He has also been fasting since Monday to make weight so that could be an issue if he decides to get into a scrambling affair with Borg that can go 5 easily. Although he has the chops, I just don’t think the matchup is a positive one for him here. I like Borg to just outwork him. Bontorin can put him in some curious positions but Borg finds ways to exit the back door and turn negatives into positives. I fully expect that here.
The Pick: Borg
Lando Vannata $8100 vs. Yancy Medeiros $8100
Medeiros is coming off 2 TKO losses against Cerrone and The Gift. Before that, he was on a three-fight win streak and the guy really seemed like he was coming into his own. With a serviceable grappling game, he tends to finish things on the feet much better than he does on the ground. In 15 wins, he has 8 KOS and 3 submissions, but like anything else, only the strong survive this game. Consistency is everything and many fighters are anything but. It doesn’t mean they are bad fighters; it just means that they are either very stylistically dependent or they just tend to show up in spots. I’m not saying that is the case for Medeiros but it may very well be something to keep an eye on going forward. However, he is fighting a guy with many similar issues in Vannata. Vannata is so talented but yet he just can’t get his career where I believe it should be. He is flashy and unchained, and he has a very fan-friendly style, but it just seems more times than not he is on the wrong side of the win column and settling for loses or draws. He fights down or up depending on where the fight is going and that is a huge issue. He needs to step on the gas and not worry about agreeing to terms as far as pace. Create your own space and tempo. Don’t allow them to do it for you. Super close fight here, but I think Groovy Lando steps on the gas a little in this one.
The Pick: Vannata
UFC FIGHT NIGHT PRELIMS
Tim Means $9100 vs. Daniel Rodriguez $7100
Well, here is another fight where a newbie gets a shot at a UFC Vet. Rodriguez comes in on short notice to replace Emeev to take on a guy that probably you don’t want to really debut against, especially if your wheelhouse is striking. The 10-1 newcomer gets to test his chops on Saturday against a guy who lives and dies getting filthy dirty. Although the 10-1 record is impressive, I can promise you that he has never faced an animal quite like Means. Now don’t get it twisted. Means isn’t a guy that is going to be in the discussion with the greats in the company, but the guy is nasty in many of ways. Pinpoint striking, razor-sharp elbow game and he ties them both together like poetry in violence. Ok not quite sure that Rodriguez is ready for this fight and I’m not sure it’s a fight that will end too well for him. Means is going to look to put it on this kid and finish him. His record has been pretty unstable as of late and having a close showing here or not an impressive one can be a sign that he’s getting caught up in weathering. This is not a fight that Means loses 3 years ago by any stretch of the imagination. It scares me that he doesn’t pull the trigger like he once did, but this is a fight he really has no choice if he wants to put people in his division back on watch. The dirty bird cuts Rod up with some hellashish elbows and comes away a winner.
The Pick: Means
Nathaniel Wood $8600 vs. John Dodson $7600
Nathanial Wood has a lot of talent. Extremely raw but I like this kid’s style. He had s confidence about him and a swag that you need to really thrive in this sport. It’s silent, but you know it’s there. He has won eight-straight, including his last 3 under the UFC umbrella. The kid has something – that’s quite obvious – but if you looked at his last 3 fights, 2 of them were above average strikers. He submitted both of them and also submitted Johnny Eduardo. He had the option there and he took it. John Dodson really doesn’t have those same attributes. He is extremely tricky and fast. He isn’t going to pressure you. He is going to use your own movements against you. He is more of a counter striker who gets in and out of spots very quick. He also obtains some very serious power in his hands when he decides to let them go. Sometimes he just won’t pull the trigger and when you are fighting off your back foot and you are being pressured, yet not playing anything. It’s a hard ask of the judges to sympathize. Wood is going to bring it to Dodson the best way he can, but Dodson has never been finished and I don’t plan on it happening Saturday. Give me a guy with very good durability and a technically powerful counter game like Dodson and I am immediately interested. Especially if he’s the dog here.
The Pick: Dodson
Scott Holtzman $8200 vs. Jim Miller $8000
Interesting fight here, and it’s actually priced a lot more accurately than I expected. Hot sauce brings a toughness about him into the cage. The former hockey standout has really brought his game into the cage with him. However, you need more than toughness in this game and slowly but surely, despite his age, he tends to get better in each outing win or lose. The brown Belt in BJJ isn’t really a stone-cold finisher, but he does have enough under his belt to be concerned with. In 13 wins, 7 of them have been inside the horn with 5 of them by way of submission. Bad news is, you are not submitting Old Faithful Jim Miller unless you are a high pedigree player. The jersey grown fighter is nothing short of a hard nose blue-collar fighter with a career that has traveled much longer than 80 percent of fighters today. However, just because you are still in the game doesn’t mean you are performing at top levels. His battle with Lyme is public record, and between that and an aging frame, he hasn’t been exactly the Jim Miller of old. However, he will show shades and right now he is on a two-fight win streak, which will be the first back-to-back winning roll for him since 2016. In between, he was 1-5 and it seemed as his career was just completely washed and over. People who know me know it’s hard for me to ever go against Miller. However, I just think this is a spot where Holtzman is just going to be the fresher and a little sharper of the two. Miller is there to be hit nowadays, and I’m not sure how easily Holtzman is going to give up his hips to the extremely well-versed BJJ player in Miller. The deeper this goes, the more and more things may start swaying Miller’s way. With that said, you can’t bank on that. You really just don’t know what Miller shows up. As smart as he is and the experience he does have, it just doesn’t equate all the time. Against Dustin Poirier, Miller had him dead to rights literally on one leg and only had to throw one more kick to finish him. He completely abandoned it for the last 2 minutes and ended up losing a decision that he really should have by finish. I think Miller is a super tough out for anyone, and you really have to dig deep when you fight him. Signing a contract against Miller isn’t a day that is super thrillful because you know you are going to get dirty in there. I just don’t think he has the firepower enough anymore to trust him fully here. I’m taking Holtzman in a very close fight.
The Pick: Holtzman
Devin Clark $9300 vs. Dequan Townsend $6900
Clark is so damn frustrating at times. The guy is a powerful and explosive athlete with some really good potential if he can just get his cage IQ in check. Every time he turns a corner, he turns off road again. With a rotating door of wins and losses, he hasn’t tied two wins together in the last 6 fights. It’s been Win. Lose. Win. Lose. Win. Lose. Win. Lose. So by all actuality, he is up for a win right? Well, slow down. He was training for a different fight against Antigulov, who has a solid wrestling game. Now, he is fighting a longer fighter who has a bead much more on his stand up. In 21 wins, he has 10 by way of KO, Sonora quite obvious what he wants. With that said, on short notice against a guy who is just bigger and stronger with a full camp behind him. That’s a rough sell for me. I just think that if Clark is smart, he will go right to his hips and make Townsend work. No full camp means his gas tank is going to be questionable. The best way to challenge someone’s tank is by making them carry your weight and just make things uncomfortable. Become smothering. I think Clark does put the pressure on here and slowly starts to break Townsend. If Clark loses this fight, I could see him getting his pink slip and that would be a shame because he has the tools to be a solid fighter with all of the attributes he does possess, but the time is now. He needs to make good of this opportunity or he will be left behind. I think he escapes the pink slip in a big statement fight for himself.
The Pick: Clark
Merab Dvalishvili $8400 vs. Casey Kenney $7800
I can see why MANY people will jump on the Kenney train here for good reason. The kid showed some serious grit against Manny Bermudez and also showed that his ability to push a hard 3 rounds in a fox hole was very very real. He outhustled Bermudez, outworked Bermudez, and was able to freeze the extremely dangerous submission game of Bermudez. It was extremely impressive and I give him all the accolades in that fight. However, this is a completely different dog he’s fighting. The issue with Bermudez is, as good as his submission game is, it really doesn’t matter if you’re not much of a takedown artist. You need to get it there in order to have a chance to get your hips going. Dvalishvili is a takedown machine when he wants to be. He is extremely explosive and once he dials in on your hips and really commits to his takedown game he will release a relentless attack until he has you grounded and if you pop up then it just drives him to leach you again for a game of rinse and repeat. Kenney is going to give him fits early while on a full tank, and even tho he has shown he doesn’t have cardio issues, it does tend to become taxing and demoralizing when you just can’t get any space at all. I think as the time goes on, you will see Kenney becoming frustrated with the way Dvalishvili approaches this fight and ultimately lost a lot of control time in which will ultimately allow him to fall slightly behind on the scorecards. If Kenney is smart, he will try to attack be the one moving forward, taking away any ability to catch any sort of a tempo. If he doesn’t get off first then it could and will show as the fight grows older in the skin. This is the one fight I am truly waiting for on this card. Two high octane guys with explosive chops and the ability to go back and forth when opportunity presents itself for both of them. I’m looking forward to this one in a big way.
The Pick: Dvalishvili
Macy Chiasson $9400 vs. Shanna Young $6800
Young is going to come in as the more athletic fighter of the two. However, she just lacks so much size and strength here. Even tho she will be the quicker and sprier fighter, if Chiasson gets her in her grasp, it could be end game for her. Chiasson is looking to bounce back in a big way here, and she is going to go back to grassroots here. She needs to really understand that her game is premised on dirty fighting in the clinch. Knees, elbows and just anything filthy she can grab under the sick. After a few dirty exchanges, I can see young slowing down here and really getting caught in a web of a fight she wasn’t ready for. I like Chiasson to bounce back in a very big way.
The Pick: Chiasson
Raulian Paiva $8800 vs. Mark De La Rosa $7400
Tough fight to call here, honestly. De La Rosa can be very very tricky with his slick ground game, but Paiva thrives on his technical toughness and although I wouldn’t call him a finisher at all with 12 decisions under his belt, he has a good technical game that really can be tough to settle in on. De La Rosa dropped his last 2 but they were not by scrubs of the division. KKF and Perez both dragged him to the cards and he came up short, but it was the way he fought that really didn’t impress me. He just really couldn’t get anything going and really had no ability to ignite his slick grappling game. I think it may be a confidence thing at this point, and to know that a 3rd fight may send him on his way if he loses, that just may be a bit much for him here as they knock him to the very first fight of the night. He is hanging on by a thread here, and I think Paiva may push his grip off of the cliff.
The Pick: Paiva
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DRAFTKINGS
Clear value in a 5 round fight under $9k. If he tucks his chin, he wins this fight. Too fast and too explosive for Jan.
He needs patience here, and he needs to wait for his moments. He isn’t going to have a speed advantage, but mistakes are made. There is value here, and I won’t fade him. I’m just on Anderson much more.
Don’t fade him! However, be ready for either a decision win or him getting starched early. You have been warned.
You have to take some swings here. The upside with the early KO is just too good, but if this gets outside the 1st round, it can be trouble.
Montana De La Rosa $8700
Her wrestling gives her a lot of upside here, but it’s a hefty price. Tread lightly.
She is long and can hold her own on the ground. If De La Rosa starts getting too cute, then Borella has the tools to hop in the driver’s seat. Not super high on this spot, but I can make an argument to sprinkle her in somewhere.
Weaver $9200 / Vargas $7000
Full FADE here
Borg $8300 / Bontorin $7900
I’m honestly playing this both ways with a heavier lean on Borg. He is clearly the better fighter to me, but he has had some ups and downs. This one can really score well if you are on the right side of it. I’m taking Borg, but I will back myself up slightly with Bontorion.
Vannata $8100 / Medeiros $8100
I’m leaning Vannata, but you know what to do here if the price is split. Don’t be stupid and cut off your nose to spite your face. This is anyone’s fight.
I’m actually fading him here. Like him, but not today.
One of the better dogs on the card. Not a scoring machine, but he’s a dog who has a clear path to win.
Holtzman $8200 / Miller $8000
Flip a coin… Jesus…. I am leaning Holtzman, and even tho I won’t have a ton here, I will throw a small sprinkle on both for cap reasons.
Clark really should work this guy, but his price…. Ughhhhh! Be careful here. Don’t fade him, but just tread lighter than usual.
I am much more confident here than many. I just think he has too much pressure. He has the ability to put up some good numbers. $8400 is good upside.
Not going to fade him, but I just don’t see him escaping the pressure for 3 straight rounds.
By Most Likely Murder if she fights the way she should… However, that price tag is scary. I will be plugging her in any way. Too much upside for a finish here.
I’m off him here. I think he wins; I just don’t like his price…
Mark De La Rosa $7400
There is value here at $7400. Even tho he scares me in this spot, if he wins, he should cover value and he may be a bit undersold.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT PRIZE PICKS
We have a new game in town and it is Prize Picks! This is such an awesome add on to the MMA landscape and I am so happy to be apart of such a cool and unique game. So what prize picks offers is very black and white and it ties in DFS and Wagering all in one format! Quick, easy to navigate, and so fun to play. Here is how it works.
Prize Picks will give you a hand full of fighters with their projected DFS score after their fight. Your job is to basically pick the over/under of their projected total correctly and you win! It’s as simple as that! The kicker is that you can parlay any fighter you want up to 4 fighters. It’s that simple.
I will be adding this to my article every week as an inclusive add on to my already extensive article.
I am trying to give you guys every outlet to win money with my article giving you the best bang for your buck and the ultimate ROI. Below I will give you some of the plays I will be looking at here. I am telling you right now that you will LOVE this game. Use the below link and use promo code ELITE to get started!
2.2 to win 1
1.4 to win 1
1 to win 1.45
1.65 to win 1
Means by KO/TKO +180
(this deserves a small hit)
.5 to win .90
See how MadLab did for UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes!