MadLab’s UFC 248 Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying.
UFC 248 MAIN CARD
Romero $7000 vs Adesanya $9200
This is a fight that is extremely confusing for me because the challenger, Yoel Romero, might be one of the most decorated wrestlers in the UFC. At 42 years of age he is a freak of nature to say the least. Still by far one of the most explosive athletes in the game and historically speaking, someone of his wrestling pedigree usually comes out on top in a matchup style like this. However, Yoel rarely goes to the wrestling tank in any of his fights and it is honestly quite frustrating. Yoel has a very odd style of fighting and laying a bead on him is nearly impossible to gauge. He doesn’t give you a look to feed off of. He fights with zero urgency and waits like a deer hunter waiting in his stand. He knows how explosive and fast he is and he also knows if he can bait you into a lulling style fight, when the time is right, he will pop the clutch and uncork something that will surely shut you off. He plays the matador game, but he will play it to a fault at times making affairs closer than they need to be. I am certain that if Yoel came out with desperation from the opening horn, he would have been on the right side of some of his loses. He waits with patience and looks for you to give him and opportunity to trip on your own shoelaces. The problem with that at this level is – mistakes aren’t made as often as we like them. The fighters are wound tighter and when you are fighting someone like Yoel, you are very coherent in the fact that making a mistake can be the difference between winning and losing. Yoel is going to be at a major disadvantage on the feet for the majority of this fight outside of his short spurts of offense, but that is all he really needs. His speed is extremely bizzare and will catch you off guard in more ways than one, but getting inside without using his high pedigree wrestling will be tough against the young striking dynamo in Adesanya. With an 80 inch reach, Adasanya will play a slow building volume game with you and although he isn’t a powerful wrecking machine, he does it in accumulation. The overall numbers in his attack will gather into stunning and then crippling finishes. The kid is looking like the real deal but the only thing I still need to see is how he handles someone who really puts a wrestling grind on him. Puts him on his back and keeps him there. How will he handle that? Yoel is the guy to do it and that’s what is so frustrating. He most likely won’t and that is a concern for me. In space and in range Yoel will eventually start getting picked apart. However, he does have the equalizer to test the experiment in the young gun and if he chooses to use it then that can throw a wrench in everything. This is such a hard call to make because Yoel is just such a wildcard, but historically speaking I can’t “HOPE” he goes to his wrestling I can only go by what I have seen and he just refuses to do so. I have to go with the young Style Bender here which would most likley align him with a clash with other rising star Paulo Costa, but Yoel is a very live one here.
The Pick: Adasanya
He will not give you volume nor will he look to end things quickly. What he will do is wait until he sees an opening and try to work you that way. The magic round is usually 3. However, no matter what round. If he wins at 7k, you will hit value. I would honestly get some here. There is value on one of the most dangerous men in the UFC.
I see him fighting cautious and I also don’t see him winning by TKO/KO. So at $9200 am I really willing to pay that price? I don’t think you need to here to be honest. I don’t see him tearing the cover off the ball with scoring, but it is 5 rounds. So I would play this a lot lighter than you thought I would tell you to play it. I am not high here.
Zhang $8900 vs JJ $7300
This fight is very oddly priced to me. I get that Zhang seems to be the new wave for the division and she has an entire nation behind her, but I think it is slightly disrespecting someone who literally dominated her division for quite some time. There is no secret that JJ hasn’t been the same since her losing the belt to Rose, but it seems that she needed to be humbled a bit to realize that she was human. In her three losses, she lost to Rose twice and Valentina, who outside of Nunes, beats everyone. So is she on a down tick? Or does one fighter just have her number and the only one was, well, Valentina. Do not expect finishing highlights from JJ. She doesn’t fight that way, she wins on technical volume. She is such a polished fighter that she really just makes you lost in her patterns once she gets going. Great footwork, very good combinations and aggressive when she feels like you are getting confused. The issue with her is that you wonder where she is. She has been traveling a lot and she seems to be enjoying life. That’s great, but how dialed in is she? Another factor is her weight cut. JJ struggles and if she isn’t dialed in then it can be an issue as the fight carries on; especially if Zhang is going to look for a takedown on tired legs. When I watched the stare down I was nervous because JJ started talking a little too much during the staredown. It seemed that she was just talking to break Zhang a bit, but it didn’t work. It seemed she felt like her Polish fans were disrespected in her eyes as she uttered the words “you don’t do that to my fans. You don’t fuck with Polish Nation”. So it seems she is spinning this into a country pride thing and this could really put some gas on the flame. Zhang is more well rounded when you add in the grappling and the power, but where JJ holds the edge is the technical ability and the volume. It will be Zhangs job to not give JJ the confidence. If JJ gains confidence after the 1st few rounds, then she can start getting really loose. If she starts getting into a groove and starts to make a rhythm in punches then her ability to create and keep range sometimes allows other to fall behind on the cards very quickly. In JJ’s loss against Valentina, she was only able to get off 78 SS. When she came back in her last fight against Waterson she landed 180 and in her prime form you can expect her to throw numbers as follows. Against Andrade 225, Karolina Kowlakiewicz 171, Claudia Gadehla 176, Valerie Letourneau 220 and even in her loss against Rose that went to decision the 2nd time she landed 145 where the majority of them were the 2nd half of the fight when she was starting to catch her heat. She needs to be loose and comfortable. That is the only way she will let her hands go. If Zhang stuns her early then you may see her confidence take a very steep drop. JJ fans need to hope that she is going to be able to start lose and take an early lead in rounds on Zhang without getting caught, because if she does take that early lead, then you can expect Zhang to start looking for ground time and if she succeeds than JJ is not the type to compete there. She will do what she can to get back to her feet, but Zhang might be a bit too strong for her in top control. So keeping her hips loose and in space will be crucial for JJ early and obviously watch her chin and keep it tucked. Zhang has a very sneaky speed and power, much more than you would expect, but her angles and her window creators are not on the level of JJ. Not many women have the ability to keep up the pace and volume she does without getting sloppy. In her fight against Waterson although it was a good showing, Waterson is grossly undersized and is truly a natural Atom Weight, so the power of Waterson doesn’t compare to Zhang and there were moments where JJ was getting clipped coming in. She also needs to watch her kicking game. Where Waterson was catching her leg but unable to finish the takedown, Zhang would most likley be able to finish the job. It really is going to be a chess match for JJ and if she is focused and ready I really think she may be able to outclass her on the feet. However, I do see her as the underdog in this fight and the line here is completely justifiable. I just think this is the crossroads for her and a champion will find a way. A true champion of her level finds ways. Lets see if she has a little more left in the basement. I am taking the dog here. JJ by decision.
The Pick: JJ
The price is right here for 5 rounds with her potential KO ability. If she wins this fight it will have to be inside the horn. I don’t see her pacing JJ in a decision win. However, the KO ability is there and she will have 5 rounds to do it. She is worth some plays.
Major upside here even in a loss if it goes all 5 rounds. She isn’t going to score KO’s, subs, or knockdowns, but she is going to spit heavy volume. If this goes all 5, you can expect her in the upper 100’s in strikes. That alone is worth the chance in a fight she is a very live dog. $7300 is a steal for someone like JJ.
Dariush $8700 vs Klose $7500
This is a good match in my eyes for Dariush. Dariush has a very quiet yet well rounded game. Solid striking and an extremely high pedigree grappling game. Dariush dropped three straight with two of them by KO. At one point we all thought that Dariush was going in the wrong direction. Then, with a blink of an eye he rattled off three wins to get right back on track and allow us to gain some trust in him. Klose presents a style that could really give you some pressure problems if he is dialed in, but his main focus is to pressure you until he can find some sort of hip entry to utilize wrestling as a means to an end. Even though he spends a lot of time on his feet, his ultimate comfort zone is if he can control things on the mat. With that said, you are playing a very dangerous game tangling with Dariush on the ground given his submission skills when he is put there or takes it there. In 17 wins Dariush has almost half of them by way of submission with eight. There is something extremely deceptive about his game that can allow you to lure you into a sluggish situation. Then when you think you have him, when you think he’s sleeping, he will turn your positive into a straight grappling negative. I feel as if Dariush has him everywhere in this fight unless his chin doesn’t hold up. There is an old saying from the Old School, “No Chin, No win”. You can be as talented as you want, but if you have a weak chin then what good is it. I’m not saying that his chin is weak, but he has shown the ability to be rocked as of late and that is something that always needs to be taken into consideration. After these three wins, I think he has some stroke of confidence back in his bag that will ultimately give him that confidence to not forget, but to realize he can still take a punch after winning three fights. There is such a mental side to fighting that can either help or hinder your approach. If you are going in with momentum and steam then you have confidence about you that allows you to be loose, try things, and have positive adrenaline in which keeps you sharp. If you are mentally disabled in any way, then you are taking the chance of distraction, adrenaline dumps in a negative way and just a lapse in confidence and judgement. If you believe that you are not durable then the chances are you won’t be. With that said I think he is over that hump and I truly think this is a very good matchup for him to run to four straight wins and start putting himself back into the conversations again.
The Pick: Dariush
The upside for a finish is there and I expect him to be a bit over looked. Not and never was super high on Dariush, but he does have the ability to finish this one, I’m just not to high on the price.
There is something about Klose where I just thought he would have evolved a little more by now. It seems as if he is really just who he is and stuck in the mud. He will have some good wins and some mindless losses and thats how I see his career paving out. Not a big fan here unless he catches Dariush.
Li $8600 vs Magny $7600
32 year old Neal Magny is some fellow to really try and figure out. He is one of those fighters to being on the cusp. He beats some good names, has some good showings, and then he tends to drop the ball at some point in an important spot. Not that all the sports aren’t important, but he seems to sell false hopes in spots I should say. The ony time he was on a legit run was in 2013-2015 when he won seven straight and tied the UFC record for most wins in a calander year with five. Then he dropped a fight to Damien Maia and his record has been shoddy at best. Two wins here then a loss. Three wins there and then two losses. Its just been a false gold cycle since his loss to Damina Maia, but that is not to say the guy isn’t talented because he surely is. A brown belt in BJJ and a long and rangy standup, Magny can get it done anywhere if you let him. He uses his long range to his advantage and he isn’t shameful about carrying things to the cards. If the finish comes to him, then great, but you arent going to see Magny chasing the finish line early for the sake of it. In 21 wins he has 11 by way of decision, seven by KO, and three by way of submission. In his seven losses he was finished six of them. Two by KO and four by way of submission. He comes in with a very long 80 inch reach and he knows how to use it. He will be taking on “The Leech”, a solid sized fighter for the division with a very broad frame and some good power behind it. The black belt in BJJ and the always ready to brawl fighter from China holds a record of 17-5 and with seven by way of KO and five by way of submission. He has never been KO’d but submitted one time. This fight is a tough one to call because reach is always a thing for me and Magny holds a 9 inch reach here which is pretty drastic, but Leech is the type of fighter that is the complete opposite of Magny. He will walk through fire to get what he wants and what he wants is to finish fights inside the horn. He is a very fast starter and if Magny isn’t ready he can find himself on the wrong side of something. I think Magny keeps it interesting early, but is the witching hour approaches and the time starts to lapse, Leech does what he does and takes control of the dance here turning an interesting fight into his.
The Pick: Li
$8600 I can see some people jumping on Magny here with good reason, but the style that Li presents will always give him upside. I’ll have some.
Not a bad price here, but I think you will have company and although I may hedge a bit with him, its not someone that I am picking to win nor was I ever really a Magny guy. A roster spot for him is really just for hedging purposes because if he wins he should cover.
Oliveira $8400 vs Griffin $7800
I like this fight. Both men are better than their records indicate and need this fight direly. Cowboy is on a three fight losing streak, but they were all tough outs and Cowboy is just such a dog out there. With a record of 19 and 8, he has 12 by way of KO and has been submitted four times and only KO’d twice. His grappling is better than his credentials state, but his game is dogging you on the feet. He will fight you at range, but he has no issues at all stepping into the pocket and having some good ole fashion fun with you. He takes on Max Griffin who in his own right I feel is better than his UFC stay has stood up to. He is 3-5 under the UFC umbrella and he is a lot better. In his 15 wins he has seven by way of KO. The 2nd degree black belt in Kickboxing has the credentials to hang with you on the feet, but the issue is his cardio isn’t his best friend. He tends to fall off a cliff and that is something that you can’t do against Cowboy. I think Cowboy exposes his cardio late and pulls away for the victory with more volume and just owning the real estate of the cage.
The Pick: Cowboy Oliveria
I like his price here and even though he is a wild card in his fights, he does go for it and against a guy like Max Griffin who has the tendency to gas that can mean good things for a low price.
I mean, he is going to cover IF HE WINS. I just personally think that he does.
O’Mailey $9100 vs Quinonez $7100
This is a fight that really is quite a question mark. There is no doubt that Omailey is the more dynamic, more marketable and better fighter in this match up, but his layoff is concerning. The last time he stepped into the cage was two years ago and for such a new breed of fighter, that can bring a bit of nerves and cage rust into the equation. Sugar Sean is a showman and Quinonez is much more of your standardize out of the spotlight fighter that just comes in with his chops to fight. Even though he has some technical ability behind him, the showmanship of O’Mailey is really a style that can ohhhh and ahhhhh the crowd and the judges. However, we really don’t know what kind of timing we are looking at here until he feels comfortable really fighting loose. I am expecting him to win this fight, but what kind of showing we get from him remains to be seen.
The Pick: O’Mailey
Long layoff is what scares me about his price tag, but if he gets into a groove he may score nicely. With that said, you really don’t know so you are shooting blind. I’ll take some chances on that blind spot when people may ignore him a bit due to that layoff.
If he wins he will need to capitalize on the cage rust and jump out early. He has the tools to make it interesting, but he does have a tall task ahead of him. However, its not unrealistic at all if he can take advantage of O’Maileys long layoff.
Madsen $9000 vs Hubbard $7200
Madden comes in with a serious wrestling pedigree out of Denmark. At 35 years of age we may be looking at a quick special run here. This guy is extremely athletic and very explosive. At 9-0 he thrives on what all fighters should really thrive on. The ticket that got him to the big show. So many times we discuss, like Romero, fighters will completely abandon what they are good at. Guys like Gathje, Romero, Gilbert Burns etc. will come into the UFC leaning on what they are good at then fall in love with another element that is weaker than their ace in the hole. Wrestling is a proven equalizer in MMA, but it seems that so many fighters must get bored of utilizing it or fall in love with the taste and feel of a KO. I get it, but at the end of the day you can be a great showman and have highlight reels or you can keep bagging W’s until you can’t be denied of your shot at gold. Madsen knows that his ace in the hole is extremely sharp and utilizes at all costs. His high paced wrestling pedigree not only is the means to his end, but it is also on a level that 90% of the athletes in the division just can’t hang with. Now if his conditioning matches the pedigree then the division may be in for a tough customer. Even at the age of 35 he will have a window to make a statement. He takes on Austin Hubbard who comes in at 11-3 from Elevation Fight Team. Good athlete in high school with a wrestling and football background, he decided to go off to a college where they had no team sports earning his Criminal Justice degree. To stay active he joined an MMA school and the rest was history. Hubard is a tough kid with some good solid fundamental chops, but there is such a stark gap in credentials here that it is hard to think that Hubbard will be able to overcome the wrestling pedigree of Madsen once he really gets dialed in on it during the fight. He will most likely give him a go early, but I just don’t see him eluding the the pressure of Madsen for too long. Eventually all things will come to a close and he will have no choice but try to get back to his feet making him fight in more of a defensive manner opposed to offensively. It would be a tremendous feather in his cap if he was able to get this one done against such high pressure fighter like Madsen, but I really just don’t see him being able to fend off the wrestling for 15 straight minutes unless he somehow catches him with something on the way in, but I can’t bank and hope on that. The obvious pick here for me is Madsen.
The Pick: Madsen
Wrestling….Takedowns… Rince and repeat style… I’ll have some.
I’m staying away here even though I know he will get some love.
Viera $9300 vs Safarov $6900
Viera is the poster board for credentials in the BJJ world. The 30 year old Black Belt in BJJ holds multiple Gold Medals in the most prestigious grappling tournaments in the world. At 6-0 he has no reason not to show it off with five of his wins by way of submission. Much like Madeson he understands where his strength lies and he is not willing to stray from that unless you convince him otherwise. Once you hit the ground with Viera, its time to be afraid, time to be very afraid. The chances of you getting put into a bad position is very real and the chances you getting back into a positive position is not really realistic if he gets you there. However, just because you have a great submission game doesn’t mean much if you are standing. You need to tie in a good takedown attack to get it there and outside of Damien Maia and a few others it is very hard to have that equal balance in order for them to start working their chops. Viera seems to have it together for the most part in that department. When you are relentless in your quest to get it there, you will find your way there. He takes on Safarov who to be quite honest with you, outside of him being tough he doesn’t do much for me. A player in combat sambo and freestyle wrestling holding a record of 9-2 he hasn’t shown me all too much. In his two losses he was finished by strikes against Villante and he was submitted by Tyson Pedro. In his nine wins he has six KOs and two subs, but the talent pool hasn’t been anything to write home about. It is hard to believe anything else but he is getting fed here. If Viera loses this fight, it would be a very bad look for him. Safarov also seems tough yet brittle in a sense. It seems that something happens to him every fight where he has to fight through some visible injury that happens during the current fight. I guess that what makes him tough, but as the fight travels on the guy really just seems done. If his legs are rubber, then Viera is going to climb him like a snake and submit him at some point before the horn blows and that is exactly what I am looking at happening here.
The Pick: Viera
Just hope he doesn’t submit him too quickly. Get some
Winn $8300 vs Meerschaert $7900
This fight you need to be careful with. Winn comes in as the protege of Daniel Cormier and having a very extensive wrestling background. At 5’6” he is very very small for the division and sometimes he really does try to fight bigger than he is. With a record of 6-1 its obviously worked for him so far, but his last fight was his first loss against Darren Stewart, who was able to really just out work and muscle him around a bit. The fight ended in a split decision and Stewart fought impressively, but Winn was having trouble finding his footing a bit and made me wonder if there is a real cap on what he can do because he isn’t able to really use his size to his advantage unless he is keeping low and using his wrestling. I am not going to lie, the guy does have some power in those hands and four of his wins all ended inside the horn by strikes. So the ability is there, but he needs to get inside to do so. The path for any Winn fight is getting underneath and inside where he can start marking some territory and if he gets top position on you, then it could be a rough go getting your hips loose. He is taking on Meerschart who may not have the wrestling credentials, but he does have the BJJ credentials and the standup to give Winn issues. A black belt in Kickboxing and BJJ, Meerschart is well rounded enough to give anyone a tough go. With a record of 30-12, it is clear who the experience favors in this one. In his 30 wins, an impressive 22 of them have come by way of submission, so its safe to say that he hits the ground running, literally. He also has six KOs and only two decisions. Oddly enough in his 12 loses he has been submitted eigth times, but we won’t have to worry about that here in my opinion. I honestly think Meerschart has a very good inside track to win this fight as a dog. He holds a 6.5 inch reach advantage in the dance and with his kickboxing credentials could really keep this thing flowing on the feet nicely. If it goes to the ground, he has the proven submission chops to really get his hips loose on a mistake from Winn to throw up something sneaky. Feels like this is going to be a very close fight, but a fight that Meerschart can without a doubt win.
The Pick: Meerschart
The wrestling is there to control things, but his undersized frame can cause him problems here. Even if his wrestling is successful he will need to be mindful of Meerscharts grappling. The price is good, but I will have more on Meerschart here.
He’s a dog that is under 8k. He has the tools to get this done if he plays this smart. A dog that I like here. I’ll have some
Viana $8100 vs Whitmire $8100
Uffff. Viana is on a three fight losing streak which the competition was not really anything to write home about. Her only win in the UFC is against Maia Stevenson which also is not much to write home about. It’s just such a bad road for her so far. All of her wins have come by way of finish with six by submission and four by KO. If you look at the flip side to this coin, Whitmire stands 4-3 in the UFC with only one submission and the other three by decision, but in her three losses, they have all been by way of submission. So this is a frightening fight on both ends and I believe that both women are in a position where they have one foot in and one foot out of the door unless they make a statement here. Both of these women can’t be trusted, but the upside seems to be a little more in Vianas favor. She has a clear path here that she can take advantage of if she is patient. In the four fights that Whitmire fought under the UFC umbrella, anytime she was taken down she lost and anytime she secured a takedown she won. So if Viana can get this to the mat, given that information along with Whitmire being submitted in all three of her loses and Viana having six submissions out of ten, there is a pattern created. I don’t like MMA math nor do I believe in it, but in a fight that both of girls aren’t very good, there is a path being presented here. This is without a doubt a pick’em fight, but Viana has a clear advantage on the ground and she would look to expose it early.
The Pick: Viana
Viana $8100 / Whitmire $8100
Take your pick here both ladies cant be trusted but I will have a little more on Viana for the Submission upside. You can split this if you want with a heavier lean on Viana
Emmers $8500 vs Chikadze $7700
I went through Emmers film and credentials and the guy has some really good movement. Athletic, and he uses good forward pressure, but he is very very active when doing so. He just doesn’t move forward. He is constantly triggering feints and has good head movement. He also has a very underrated wrestling game that seems to be overlooked because he doesn’t activate it all that much unless he feels he needs to (which I’m not a fan of). The chops are there for him to be a good fighter and even owns wins against Alexander Hernandez and Corey Sandhagen early on in their careers. I don’t care too much about the past, but it is interesting because both of those gentlemen are rising stars in the UFC right now. With a 17-4 record he has seven by KO, four by submission and seven by submission. In his four losses he was submitted twice and KOd once. He takes on Chikadze who will look to slow down the always active Emmers. Chikadze has an oddly interesting style for having a kickboxing background but it works for him. He has a very very lazy style. It seems he is too loose and then he tightens up and throws. It’s an odd limber style that takes shape when he is ready to engage. At 8-2 he has five by way of KO and looks to throw most of his stuff with intent. Where he can be exposed by Emmers is during his reckless charges that he throws punches while moving forward. Emmers can change levels here and get a good look at his hips at this point and ground him. The problem is, will he? I say he does, but even if he doesn’t I think he has the movement and striking to still edge this one out. Got to go emmers here.
The Pick: Emmers
I like this kid.. $8500 isn’t a bad price to pay with a kid who has aggressive striking and heavy upside on his wrestling. He will find his way onto my lineups.
I don”t see him outpacing Emmers here.
Batgerel $8200 vs Canetti $8000
Welcome to the world of Canetti. Another fighter that can’t tie two wins together or lose two in a row. The revolving doors of wins and losses by fighters is aggravating. However, he is the wildcard of all wildcards because he will come out like a bat out of hell and if it works, then it really works and when it doesn’t he literally will just run himself into a submission from his kamikaze approach. So what you are getting here is a high octane fighter that will either crash and burn or motor hard in success. That hard motor comes at a cost with him because he does get tired a bit as the fight stretches and that’s where he becomes reckless. It doesn’t help that he is 40 years old either. He takes on Batgeral with a record of 7-2 and actually holds a win over Kai Kara France early on. With two wins by submission and three by KO he really doesn’t have a resume to really gauge him all that well. I can tell you that he is all in for a pocket fight and if he survives the early onslaught of Canetti, then the ships with start possibly waving in his direction. Canetti is going to do what Canetti does and that’s pop the clutch hard and fast early, but at 40 years of age that tank will start dwindling, so he will either take an early jump and pocket enough rounds before he starts losing near the end or he will fade out a little too early and lose his footing. Both men are predominantly strikers, but also can’t be trusted as far as you can throw them. I’ll look at Canetti here to get the win because he is literally a do or die fighter and I really don’t have much interest in this fight. It will be interesting to watch the tables most likely turn if he gassed a little too early or gets caught.
The Pick: Canetti
Batgerel $8200 / Canetti $8000
A fight I normally would stay completely away from and I think many people probably will. But in Large Field GPP they really are priced so evenly that whoever wins is going to score pretty well. The upside on Canetti is early and the upside on Batgerel is late. I will play a small fraction on this fight with a heavier lean on Canetti. This fight wont be involved in many of my builds though.
Ling “The Leech”
1.65 to Win 1
1 to win 1.25
Cowboy Oliviera -135
1.35 to win 1
2.15 to win 1
Viera by way of Submission -170
1.7 to win 1
UFC FIGHT NIGHT PRIZE PICKS
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See how MadLab did for UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes!