MadLab’s UFC 253 Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying…
UFC 253 CARD
Israel Adesanya DK $8500 / FD $21 vs. Paulo Costa DK $7700 / FD $19 TITLE FIGHT
I have tried to compare this matchup to some of the greatest head to heads in combat sports and then utilize the historical outcomes to see if they lived up to the hype. The matchup is everything that has question-marked us since the beginning of time, especially in boxing. Who wins the “Puncher” or the “Technician”. One matchup that really stood out to me was the legendary fights between Sugar Ray Robinson and Jake Lamotta. The graceful artist, deep thinker and pattern creator that lives and dies by setting landmines all around you, just waiting for you to step onto them. Utilizing range and speed to keep you at bay and move you into directions that will make you a part of his ultimate puzzle. Against the ultimate machine that will move forward into the fire trying to land crippling bombs that will make small buildings buckle.
Let’s start with Adesanya who brings a very rare dynamic to the table. With over 100 Fights and 80 Kickboxing fights on his resume. He believes that the generation of power comes from the proper angles and precision. He understands that the raw power was not blessed upon him, but the belief system of drawing you into his power will make up for the lack thereof. Izzy is not one to be baited into a firefight. He looks at fighting like a video game. He will create scenarios and toss puzzle pieces all over the cage and wait for you to pick them up and try to make sense of it all. Once you are stumped, he counters letting you know that you have just been baited. His ability to avoid damage is also pretty incredible. His ability to read your body language and react quickly is something that you just don’t see every day. It’s almost like he understands your personality and can guess what’s coming next. He is a special athlete and fighters with his skill set matched by his awareness and intelligence don’t come around all too often. He also has very deep confidence in himself. He calls out the hardest possible fights for himself and has never batted an eyelash in accepting one. Noone just steps up and calls out Yoel Romero when you are not mandated to do so. However, under all that bright shining armor, I was able to find some holes on Izzy that we will uncover after we talk about the man that will be looking to take his shield from him on saturday night.
Calling Paolo Costa a “Knockout Artist” is selling him short a bit. Statistically speaking, yes he is. However, KO artists come in many forms, but not many possess the ability to tie punches together as he can. His ability to understand the movement of where the body is going and what will be open after every strike for the next one to follow is absolutely mind-bending. He will force your body and head into directions that he wants them to travel, setting up his next shot like a perfectly played game of 9-ball. Costa will move forward on an angle until he backs you up to the warning track of the cage. Once he gets you there, he will square his body up and start teeing off like artwork on a heavy bag. Delivering shots to the body and head keeping you in place. If he sees you drifting to the left he will throw a left moving you back to the right. If he sees you drifting to the right he will throw a right moving you back to the left. His ability to keep you in place with his power is amazing to watch. Costa also holds very high confidence in his power and his chin. I have never seen a fighter stalk and hunt Yoel Romero as he did. He literally walked him down for 15 minutes, giving Yoel zero room to breathe. Even when Yoel Clipped him, he got back to his feet and the hunting continued. This is a guy that will go out on his shield no matter what the cost. However, the one thing that he does maybe better than any of the newer prospects in the UFC is his finishing instincts. This is something that can’t be taught. You either have the ability to read it and know when the time to move in is right or you don’t. Don’t let anyone tell you differently. If they say this can be taught then they should have their credentials questioned. Can you teach someone to be a better finisher than they already are? Yes. It’s like anything else. However, at the end of the day, it’s an instinct that some have and some don’t. I’ll debate any human on this and win. Period. With that said along with all of his merits, I have found some glaring holes in his game as well. So let’s look at their holes now.
Izzy doesn’t have many because there are still some in question, so you can’t throw a red mark on them until we see more. A few things that are in question is his ability from his back if he is held there. We have seen a small sample size but nothing too substantial. Also, I have to be honest, his ability to take a good clean shot is still in question for me. I have seen him backed up quite a few times and the most notable one was Kelvin Gastelum. Kelvin caught him with a head kick that made him drop his defenses. Kelvin rushed in, cracked him a few times, and Izzy was clearly hurt. Instead of finishing him with strikes, Kelvin decides to lower his level, which when I watch it, still can’t figure out what he was thinking. I would have literally torn into him when he came back to the corner. That was not the only time that Izzy has been put on skates but that was probably the most significant time since his stay in the UFC. However, Izzy has been KO’d in his kickboxing days and he was actually KO’d cold by a left hand that really didn’t have much salt and pepper on it. That in fact raised my eyebrow a bit. I needed to go back and really see how these men had success in these situations and the answer was quite clear. Pressure. Izzy likes to be the counter puncher but he likes it on his terms. He wants to draw you in giving you the illusion that you are backing him up. However, if you physically force him back, you can see the clear discomfort. If anyone is going to back him up, it’s Costa and that can and will be a problem at some point in the fight. You can bank on that.
Costa has a few different issues and probably more critical ones. He relies a little too much on backing you up and mirroring you with no caution whatsoever. He is not one to create angles or traps. His mantra is known and he makes it known. I am going to back you up until you have nowhere to run and I am going to uncork power in accumulation that you have never experienced before. That works well in his favor against Adesanya, but the gas tank can only last so long at that rate, and given that his weight cuts are north of 45 pounds in some instances, that can be an issue. Yes, I said 45 pounds. He walks around at about 235 at some points during the offseason and it shows when he is in the cage and rehydrated. Costa has been accused of PEDs in the past and although I am under the belief that he is, he has been tested 14 times last year which marks the most tests in one year on the UFC roster. All his tests have been negative. He was suspended by USADA for illegal IV infusion which they did away with a while ago. When looking at matchups that Costa has fought that can somewhat scrape the surface of Izzy. You need to look at the Uriah Hall fight. Hall is at least a very established and creative striker to a point. He was chewing Costa up with the jab, moving well, and really having success nicking Costa up. However, Hall also has power and will stand in the pocket and trade. This is where he lost the fight. Izzy knows he can’t compete in a firefight so he would not plant and throw in that situation. The killer for me here is the level of competition and not having 5 round experience under his belt. This can really be the X-factor if he doesn’t play his cards correctly, pace himself, and have more than a brawlers game plan. So how do I see this fight shaking out?
I find this fight to be extremely competitive in its onset. Costa will move forward throwing a lot of heat and backing Izzy up. Izzy is going to allow the heat and the pressure. He is going to want to feel what is coming his way and see what and if there are patterns that he can use against Costa. Costa will hit him and Costa will make Izzy fight out of some serious spots. If Izzy gets caught clean I can promise you he’s going down. However, if he doesn’t, you are going to see the adjustments being made in the later rounds, and Izzy will start slowly pulling away with conditioning, speed and precision. Costa’s conditioning is my main concern. Power isn’t going to carry into the 4th and 5th round like it did in the 1st and 2nd. This fight either ends with a Costa KO within 3 or a clinic late by Izzy. I am taking the crafty technician here. And Still.
The Pick: Izzy
Dominick Reyes DK $9000 / FD $22 vs. Jan Blachowicz DK $7200 / FD $17
Many people can argue that Reyes should have won his fight against Jon Jones. In any event, it was a valiant effort and a great showing. Reyes brings an old school yet high bred style to the cage with him. He packs obvious power but he also has a very technical way of delivering it. He isn’t a power puncher. He is a crafty and dynamic striker that possesses a combination of power and clean striking ability. With a record of 12-1, Reyes has 7 KOS and 2 Subs. In his only loss to Jon Jones, he lost by way of decision. The 6’4 southpaw has the perfect frame for the division with a 77-inch reach and truly understands what it is to fight long. Now with championship experience, Reyes is ready to bounce back and show that leaving it in the hands of the judges is no longer an option. He takes on Polish power Jan Blachowicz. Jan has been a dark horse of the division for quite some time and never got the fan appreciation that he deserves. At 37 years of age, Jan holds a record of 26-8 with 7 KOs and 9 Submissions. The Polish Predator has more than led in his hands, he also has a black belt in BJJ under Joey Moreira. Jan can take the fight anywhere you want to take it and will oblige you there at any time. Jan is a no-frills fighter that has really had ups and downs in his career. In his 8 losses, he has only been KO’d 2 times and submitted 1 time. So fairly durable he is but at 37, you need to wonder how long he can be involved in these fox holes with the young guns of the game. At 6’2, Jan will hold a 1-inch reach advantage but being 2 inches shorter and his style of fighting, it just seems Reyes fights so much longer. I am expecting Jan to start patient and slow. He is going to feel Reyes out and slowly start to move in closing the gap at his leisure. When he finally does, you can expect him to start throwing some heat and maybe even change levels. However, I think Reyes has too much cage awareness to stay in one spot. I expect him to really skirt the cage and use lateral movement to keep Jan like a bunny chasing the greyhounds. If Jan secures a takedown, I think Reyes is well versed enough to get back to his feet and reset. Very interesting fight here but I think Reyes bounces back in a big here.
The Pick: Reyes
Kai Kara-France DK $8900 / FD $18 vs. Brandon Royval DK $7300 / FD $12
Royval is without a doubt a slick fighter. His transitions from his back are as crafty as they come. He will literally transition from anything to something else before you even know its coming. Creativity on the ground to me is his greatest asset, but he does like to stand on the feet, and against KKF, that can be an issue. Royval has fought some good guys outside of the UFC including Casey Kenny who is another rising prospect. In his debut fight against Tim Elliott, he was able to cinch up a submission and he will look to keep the ball rolling here against KKF. With a record of 11-4, he has 7 submissions and 3 KOS/ In his 4 losses, he has never been finished inside the horn. Since his loss to Kenny in LFA, he is on a 3 fight win streak, all by way of submission. He will look to make that 4 in a row this saturday night. Coming off a win against the always Tough Tyson Namm, KKF will be facing a bit more of a challenge here in Royval. Namm is going to stand with you and if you stand with KKF, you most likely are going to lose that affair. However, Royval is going to want to eventually take this to the ground and test KKF there. With a record of 21-8, KKF has 9 KOS and 9 Decisions under his belt. In his 8 losses, he has been KOd 2 times and submitted 2 times. These came early in his career and I find it hard to believe that Royval is going to be able to outpace him for 15 minutes. Royval’s sole hope for victory is to get a finish by way of submission which quite honestly is very very possible if he can get this to the ground and keep it there with some decent time left on the clock in whatever round it is. I just see KKF landing the cleaner shots here, adding more volume and winning a competitive decision. If there is a finish here, it will most likely be by Royval, but I have KKF doing enough to avoid the Sub here.
The Pick: KKF
Ketlen Vieira DK $8800 / FD $15 vs. Sijara Eubanks DK $7400 / FD $13
Eubanks is coming off a big upset win just a few short weeks ago and she is turning it around here again on Fight Island. Very very quick turnaround for her considering this was not a fight that was a minute long. It seems that Eubanks is starting to get her footing after her 2 straight losses back in the Bantamweight division. She has now won 2 straight and ready to make it 3. Eubanks has all the tools to be a good fighter. She even has a fantastic camp behind her. The 2014 World Jiu-Jitsu Champion has a 6-4 record and oddly enough, none of those wins have come by way of submission. 2 by KO and 4 by way of decision. In her 4 losses, Eubanks has never been finished. She will be taking on a tough task in Vieira who holds a very similar style to Eubanks. Vieira was on a tear before her last fight. Beating people like Zingano, McMann and Ashley Evans Smith. The undefeated prospect would then face one of my favorite dark horses of the division in Irene Aldana and suffer her first loss by way of KO. With a now 10-1 record, she has finished 2 by KO and 4 by way of submission. It will be interesting to see how she bounces back from her first loss here. This tells a lot about a fighter. It’s easy to win, however, it’s not easy to lose, bounce back and win. There is no doubt that the momentum is in Eubanks’ favor here, but I think Vieira is going to come into this fight with something to prove. Eubanks is a live dog given her potential and her skill set, but I think the black belt in Judo and BJJ gets one back and gets back to her winning ways here.
The Pick: Vieira
Hakeem Dawodu DK $8000 / FD $16 vs. Zubaira Tukhugov DK $8200 / FD $17 (Missed Weight)
What can I say about Dawodu except I am not a fan. There is something about this kid that bothers me. I don’t know if it’s his style or the faces he makes when he steps into the cage, but there is something about his overall approach that just rubs me the wrong way. However, you can’t deny that the kid is talented and has a lot of pop in those hands. With a record of 11-1, he has 7 wins by KO and 4 by decision. In his 1 loss to Danny Henry, he was submitted. If you look at his overall body of work in the UFC, he hasn’t fought cans. The guy has fought and beaten some very legit guys such as Julio Arce and Bochniak. So, you can’t really deny that the kid has some talent. With that said, I am not sold just yet. His fight with Arce and Bocniak were split decisions and really could have gone either way. He throws with good volume and power averaging about 5 SS per minute, but when it comes to the ground game, you can say that he has and can be had there. Tukhugov brings that pressure that Dawodu will need to deal with. His striking volume is about half of Dawodu, but I am expecting Dawodu to slow down that rate a bit knowing that Tuk averages just a bit over 2 TDs per affair. A place where Dawodu does not want to go with Tuk. With an 85% TD defense, it seems to have healed up quite well, but I am expecting this to hit the ground at some point. Tuk’s pressure when he is committed to the TD is hard to stop even tho he doesn’t live and die by it. He has no problems with standing and trading but I think it’s safe to say that the changeup he does implore is very effective. With a 19-4 record, he has 7 KOs and 1 Submission. In his 4 losses, he has been stopped once both ways. The kid has good power but lacks the volume and speed of Dawodu. However, knowing that he does have the credentials to go ground if he needs to is really making me lean on him a bit here. I will take Tuk in a tough scrap that may end in a close split.
The Pick: Tukhugov
Brad Riddell DK $9200 / FD $19 vs. Alex Da Silva Coelho DK $7000 / FD $10
When you talk about sharp striking with sound technique in this fight, you really have to have both eyes on Riddell. The city kickboxing fighter has probably the cleanest striking on the team. The guy’s ability to draw you into with feints and his ability to tie in technique and power is pretty damn impressive to watch. Riddell is not going to just walk you down with no reasoning behind it. It is all tied to a greater purpose. Instead of waiting for an open window, he jams it open little by little, and when the time to jump through exposes itself, then he will start to let it fly. He will take on Brazilian fighter Coelho who is a bit of a wild one. Good KO power and can hold his own on the ground but his punches are not methodically placed like Riddell. He will look to walk through instead of around creating his own walkway. That works in many realms of MMA, but when you are fighting such a strategic striker, they tend to have answers for this because it’s nothing that they haven’t seen before. I am expecting a great fight here with a first-round that will show Riddell really sizing the situation up. Letting the Brazilian show him some cards while he calculates it all. Then I am expecting the striking pedigree of Riddell to really start taking over while he pulls away slowly. You are looking at a really good scrap here, but a fight that I need to lean on the much more disciplined fighter with a much higher striking pedigree. He will want to stay off his back in this one tho for sure.
The Pick: Riddell
Diego Sanchez DK $6800 / FD $8 vs. Jake Matthews DK $9400 / FD $20
I am going to keep this one short. Diego has been in the UFC for almost 20 years. One of the original gangsters of the company for sure and he is still doing it. You have to respect that about him. How his body has held up and how he still has the thirst to fight. With that said, it seems that he has turned a corner in his life and his career. The belt chase is officially over and he just wants to go out with these last 4 fights on a high note. He has come to terms that he will not be a UFC champion and it seems that he is now officially at peace with it. With that said, the UFC is doing him no favors. In his past 5 fights, 4 of them have been 26 years of age. Tough opposition that really just wants the Sanchez name on the resume. He sees that and he understands what evolution is all about. The problem is that he is fighting an extremely tough kid in Jake Matthews. Very good wrestling, good pop, and a bright future that seems to be flying under the radar a bit. I’m obviously going with Matthews here. I just hope it doesn’t get ugly. I respect Diego and I hope he has a good showing of himself. There is no doubt Diego leaves it all in there and may even make this competitive but I can’t take him here against the young gun.
The Pick: Matthews
Shane Young DK $7900 / FD $17 vs. Ludovit Klein DK $8300 / FD $16 (Missed Weight)
Shane Young came into the UFC with a very good and valiant showing of himself against Alexander Volkanovski. Did he get washed? Yes, he did but he lasted and never quit and that speaks volumes about that kid. Since then he has bounced back and won his last 2 fights including 1 fight of the night. Young is a good striker with an ability to keep it a clean range game or get dirty in the pocket with you. I have seen some glaring holes even in his striking game but having all of his top dogs fighting on this card. Now a member of city kickboxing, he joins the likes of KKF and Izzy. Not too shabby of a camp if I say so myself. So I don’t see how he isn’t prepared for this fight. With that said, when you have a late replacement stepping in, it can help you or hurt you, and Klein is a very tricky matchup. Klein has some very tight and calculated striking and that high kick comes around like an aluminum bat. I like how patient Klein is and he really looks to make all of his strikes count. He isn’t just swinging for the hills looking for a highlight. However, if the highlight presents itself, he is there to take it. I think Young is very prepared for this fight and I think City Kickboxing is really building themselves a pretty tight army, however, Young is def on the lower end of the spectrum for the team and I see this matchup being much closer than people may think. I am actually going to take Klein here. I think he has some sleeper chops that people may have overlooked a bit.
The Pick: Klein
William Knight DK $7600 / FD $16 vs. Aleksa Camur DK $8600 / FD $17
Knight is your prototypical tough guy. Not a ton of skill but the guy does have some game-changing power. This issue with him is that he really isn’t all that active. He is going to move forward, load up, and look to really land something big and clean. If that doesn’t work and he just can’t seem to keep you in place then he is going to break range and look to get you to the ground where the power can be generated from top position. There is no doubt that Knight is a scary opposition for any fighter if he hits you clean but hitting you clean is going to be the task at hand for him. Outside of that, there isn’t much to be concerned with if you are well rounded enough. Camur is young and has some decent skills under his belt. He without a doubt does not throw with the same pop as Knight, but his activity in the cage is more plentiful. At 24 years of age, there are miles of improvements that need to be made for this young man but the potential is in fact there. I think this fight can go a few different ways. You are either going to see Camur’s wing clipped and Knight finishes him, or Camur is just going to have more activity which will win him rounds. I think this fight should be more of a pick-em, to be honest, but I am going with Camur. I just think he is a little faster, more youthful, more well rounded and has a little more to offer in a fight that he needs to make into a little bit more of a range points game.
The Pick: Camur
Juan Espino DK $9100 / FD $19 vs. Jeff Hughes DK $7100 / FD $9
Both of these gentlemen are from the contender series. A very stark contrast in styles. Hughes is much more your prototypical heavyweight that likes to throw heavy lumbering shots whether it be in the pocket or a forced situation. With a 10-3 record, he has a 40% KO ratio. He has also been KO’d one time. There isn’t anything about Hughes’ game that makes him tricky. Siding with him is not hoping that he outclasses you. It is basically can he land that big shot before the Horn. A lumbering heavyweight is pretty much exactly what he is. He takes on Espino, who really has a lot more layers to his game. He does throw very wide and wild but the grappling ability is where most of his fights can be won and lost for him. If he has success getting you to the ground, his Ground and Pound is good enough to soften you up for a submission, and at 37 years of age, he seems like his conditioning is good enough to play in the deeper waters better than Hughes can. I know the dangers of getting caught by Hughes, but the clearly more well-rounded fighter here is Espino and I like his chances here to do the outclassing.
The Pick: Espino
Khadis Ibragimov DK $8700 / FD $17 vs. Danilo Marques DK $7500 / FD $14
I mean not much I can say here, to be honest. Fight really makes no sense. On one end, you have a guy that has dropped 3 in a row and has shown me absolutely nothing positive in his fights. On the other hand, you have Marques, a team Maia fighter that is debuting a tad bit late at 34 years of age. Standing at 6’6 he def has an opposing stature for the division, but what is the meaning behind this? Marques is too old and clearly not good enough to even break into the rankings and then you have Ibragimov that unless he sold his soul at the crossroads Robert Johnson did, he isn’t going to be a prospect to watch out for any time in the near future. SO this fight really doesn’t make all that much sense to me. It’s not like they need a filler fight for this card. I would be fine having this fight completely nixed for the card because they are both so bad that it’s really a coin flip. A fight that I have zero interest in to be quite honest with you. With that said, Gun to head? I think Ibragimov, as bad as he is, has been there and has at least seen the jaws of defeat in all his UFC walks. So, it can’t get any worse for him. Outside of a cut which will come if he loses, it’s about as bad as it gets. As far as Marques, if he wins they may not even call this back unless it’s super impressive and if they do then his shelf life will be short.
The Pick: Ibragimov
UFC 253 DFS
Israel Adesanya DK $8500 / FD $21
8500 in a 5 rounder? Yes sir. Izzy is going to really have to play his cards right here. He will not want to get into early heated exchanges. He is going to want to play cat and mouse for a while. So don’t get too nervous on his volume early, it’s all a part of the plan. If he doesn’t get clipped in the first 2.5 rounds then you can expect him to start opening up in the last 2 rounds and possibly getting a finish, depending on how fit Costa’s conditioning is when he travels to uncharted waters. There is upside.
Paulo Costa DK $7700 / FD $19
The price is so good here and there is just so much value to pass it up. He is going to be throwing hard and heavy for as long as this lasts. He will be dumping volume and power, hoping that something finds the mark. If it does, Izzy is going down. It’s the late rounds that do concern me, but if you fade Costa, especially at this price then you have a screw loose. This fight is anybody’s to win.
Dominick Reyes DK $9000 / FD $22
I am not high on this price but knowing that we have a belt on the line here it gives us some more room to work. I think Reyes is going to be slick enough to keep Jan guessing, but heaven help him if he lets Jan start grounding him. I think Reyes is a very good athlete with good movement, and much like Izzy, Reyes should be able to really create angles and problems for Jan later on in the fight. Even at 9k, the value is there.
Jan Blachowicz DK $7200 / FD $17
I don’t care that he is 37. The guy is polished power and has a ground game that can give Reyes some issues on the ground if he is able to get it there. The 7200 dollar tag is all value and even tho I am picking Reyes to win this fight. This is a fighter you just can’t fade so early in Reyes’ career.
KKF DK $8900 / FD $18
This fight scares me. I like KKF, but I think he is starting to level out a bit. I see much better value elsewhere, to be honest. I am not high on him at this price.
Brandon Royval DK $7300 / FD $12
If this stays standing, then you can expect Royval to start getting chewed up. However, if this goes to the ground, get ready for a host of transitions that KKF will more than likely have to fight out of. A few small stabs here could be in store in GPP.
Ketlen Vieira DK $8800 / FD $15
Coming off a loss you never know what to really expect from a first-time loser. However, there are things about her game that do make me really like her in this spot. I just don’t think she finishes Eubanks here. Tough spot and a very iffy price tag. I would tread lightly here.
Sijara Eubanks DK $7400 / FD $13
The only thing that really concerns me is the quick turnaround for Eubanks. I was the one that called her as a dog in her last fight because she is much better than people are slating her to be, but this is a tough spot here. However, I put nothing past her. There is value here.
Hakeem Dawodu DK $8000 / FD $16
Zubaira Tukhugov DK $8200 / FD $17 (Missed Weight)
Tuk missed weight by almost 5 pounds and will be giving 20% up. However, it doesn’t take away the fact that I still like him to win in this spot. With that said you need to play this both ways at this price with a slightly heavier lean on Tuk.
Brad Riddell DK $9200 / FD $19
The value isn’t as good as I was hoping for, but if this stays standing then you can expect him to hit north of 90-100 SS. However, a finish is what will really be the deciding factor on his value in this spot. I am not expecting him to be an extremely high owned fighter, but I am expecting him to spit some fire if he can stay off his back for 3 rounds. I’ll have some.
Alex Da Silva Coelho DK $7000 / FD $10
His path is staying out of the exchanges and making things close and dirty. I just don’t know how easily he will be able to manage that against such a high pedigree striking technician like Riddell. I think I will leave this one alone unless you love the hail mary submissions. Then, by all means, take your little stab.
Diego Sanchez DK $6800 / FD $8
I usually say, “Never fade Sanchez totally” but in this spot? I mean another 26-year-old against a clearly aged Sanchez. Nothing really surprises me anymore with this guy but I really just don’t see it. I am off.
Jake Matthews DK $9400 / FD $20
Matthews really should finish this fight. However, he has only hit value 2 of his last 6 in the cage, and now he is hovering at what I am believing to be his highest price yet. Dangerous play? Yes. Will he see some love on DK and FD? Yep. A chance I am willing to take? Yes. I think this is fight to finish if he really wants to, but pull the reins back a bit. I wouldn’t go ham here, but I would advise some Matthews.
Shane Young DK $7900 / FD $17
Young had a very odd staredown today, to say the least, but he is well equipped for this fight with a strong camp behind him. You should see a very tight and dialed in Young in this fight but the striking prowess of Klein and that high kick that he possesses is going to be a threat all fight for young. I see this as a razor-close fight and one that can honestly go either way. I am picking Klein here but I will hedge in a few spots with Shane to cover my ass in this one.
Ludovit Klein DK $8300 / FD $16 (Missed Weight)
He missed weight by almost 5 pounds which is a bit concerning to me. However, sometimes these weight misses can work heavily in the favor of the missed fighter. I am picking Klein here and will have him in spots, but with obvious caution.
William Knight DK $7600 / FD $16
I am picking against him here but the upside is much more real and valuable on this side of the fence. Knight can KO Camur if he can find the address of Camur’s chin. Because of that reason, I am going to have a few darts here.
Aleksa Camur DK $8600 / FD $17
A little too pricey here for me at 8600. I may just leave this one alone.
Juan Espino DK $9100 / FD $19
I actually don’t hate this guy. I like what he brings. A little late to the game but the guy is a finisher and that’s all you can ask for. I’ll have some here, especially because it’s a heavyweight fight and he has the tools to finish this in multiple fashions. However, remember this is a heavyweight fight and you can end it before you blink on either side.
Jeff Hughes DK $7100 / FD $9
Espino should win this fight, but the only reason why I won’t fade Hughes totally is that this is a heavyweight fight and things can change in the strike of 1 punch. Light tho. I like Espino here.
Khadis Ibragimov DK $8700 / FD $17
Danilo Marques DK $7500 / FD $14
Both of these guys blow. I’ll just be frank here. Do you really want to bury lineups in a fight that you really have no way in predicting the outcome? You can guess. Sure. And if you guess right then you look great but it’s merely a guess with these two. So for me? I’m leaving this one alone.
UFC 253 VEGAS
Was not as much value on this card than I was expecting. I really was digging and getting creative. I am not a huge prop bet guy, but it seemed like the value you was there and not in the straight bets unless you are really willing to lay the wood and that really isnt what I like to do. I like hunting value. So just be easy here and play responsible. I see this as a better DFS card than it is betting.
Reyes/Jan Over – 2.5 -125
1.25 Unit to Win 1
Both men respect each other. The athletic ability of Reyes should be able to keep this at Bay until he is good and ready to unload in the later rounds.
Izzy/Costa – Over 2.5 -150
1.5 to win 1
Costa isn’t going to hunt as early and as hard as usual. By the time he starts to really hunt Izzy will have hin Dialed in already and will be avoiding punishment while minutes start to reach the 2.5 mark.
KKF/Royval – wins by decision +100 (The best odds were at BET365.COM)
1 unit to win 1
I didn’t want to touch this fight straight up, and KKF has all decisions in all 5 fights in the UFC. I don’t expect that to change. Historically speaking that is his pattern.
1.85 to win 1
Slight struggle with the weight cut for Eubanks and a quick turnaround against the bigger fighter that can neutralize Eubanks grappling.
1.2 to win 1
Came in Overweight a bit. However, Historically speaking if the weight cut is missed on purpose the track record is better. He is a natural 155er fighting at 145. To me a 4 pound miss is purposely done. He is going to be the bigger man with more pop. Its worth it here.
1 unit to win 1.55 Units
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