MadLab’s UFC 247 Breakdown and Predictions!!! Here is what Twitter is saying…
UFC 247 MAIN CARD
Jon Jones $9400 vs. Dominick Reyes $6800 TITLE FIGHT
I often wonder how a person can have so much opportunity in front of them and either be too blind to see it or just maybe not realize it. In life, people will tend to overlook their traits and talents. They really just can’t grasp how fortunate they are to have them. I have seen it over and over again. The issue with this way of thinking is not that they aren’t still great at their craft, but you will always wonder just how great they could have been. Jon Jones is a perfect example of that. Great fighter, great talent, just not the greatest human on earth. Showing entitlement in his police video, acting like a child, partying like he isn’t supposed to be a role model in his position and a host of other things I can layout on the table. However, when he is dialed in, it’s scary for the man across the cage from him. He’s a generational talent. I will not sit here and call him the GOAT because I don’t think he is. He has proven time and time again that his riddle is harder than most set out for it to be, and I’m not sure that we have seen the pinnacle of Jon Jones, which is sad. However, every crash does have a caveat involved and Jon Jones is walking that dangerous line. His last few fights have been less than stellar, and it seems he is just doing enough to stay safe and win. With that said, he is still human, and no matter what mistakes can be made and given the surge of talent that is rising through the ranks, an upset of epic proportions always lurks in every fight. Reyes is someone who I like but I’m not a firm believer in yet. He has power and he is athletic, but he just hasn’t shown me enough to really be able to stand firm on a pick against someone like Jon Jones. It’s just really a hard sell for me. I’m not saying that he can’t catch Jones or even catch him on an off night. It happens all the time. But there are really no indicators to me that Reyes can outperform or outwork Jones in any facet of fighting. Jones is just better everywhere. Reyes def holds the power edge, but he will need to get the opportunity to really use it and I’m not sure that will happen. Come on guys, anyone who is coming in hot picking Reyes here is just trying to be different. You know it, and I know it. I would love to see Reyes put him in some forced reactionary spots and maybe he will, but catching Jones and finishing him? Not sure about that y’all.
The Pick: Jones
Valentina Shevchenko $9500 vs. Katlyn Chookagian $6700 TITLE FIGHT
I’m not going to spend too much time here because I really don’t see a reason. Chookagian is not a bad fighter. She is very calculated and patient. However, here is another situation where Valentina is so much better everywhere. Her speed, her stand up, even her grappling. Valentina is just on another level than most women, and it seems that she is only getting better. Chookagian is not a pressure fighter. She is not a finisher, and she is not the type of fighter who can really come back from a round-to-round deficit. It’s just not her style. Going 25 minutes with Valentina, you need to have volume and tricks up your sleeve. You can’t stand in front of her and think you are going to slow the pace or care terms. It’s not going to happen. You need to bring a level to her that she isn’t able to match, and as of now, I don’t see Katlyn being the one to do that. She should be happy she is in this position, but it’s not going to be her night.
The Pick: Valentina
Juan Adams $8800 vs. Justin Tafa $7400
You probably can assure yourself that someone most likely will be put to sleep here. Both of these guys are extremely raw but yet extremely powerful. To say that either of these men is going to come in with some scientific game plan is just kind of ludicrous and off base. They are heavyweights. Unpolished heavyweights with the understanding that this fight will be a game of who gets to the spot first and who can connect before the other. That’s what I fully expect here, especially when they are accustomed to a finishing rate that they both possess. Adams is the hometown son, and the crowd will be behind him. The UFC is giving him an opportunity to make a statement in a big way here, and I am actually expecting him to do so. I think he gets it done inside the horn, providing he doesn’t gas out before that.
The Pick: Adams
Dan Ige $7900 vs. Mirsad Bektic $8300
Interesting matchup here. Bektic is someone who I expected a lot more from, given his hype and skill set. However, there is a very small element to his game that alarms me a little. You can break him and you can find his kill zone fairly easily if you wait long enough. Sharp standup with a solid wrestling game, it still seems as if he makes mistakes that can be daunting to outcomes of the fight. He can be demoralized in a sense if he puts in a hard effort and it doesn’t turn out exactly the way he is hoping. Ige, on the other hand, is silently showing that not only is he extremely talented, but he is solid everywhere and is completely content with flying under the radar. He doesn’t have gears. He’s not someone who needs to pop his clutch into overdrive and then downshift. He has a steady and solid pace that continues to bring a consistent game for 15 minutes. That is what I fear for Bektic here because if he slips one time or if he gives Ige a window, which he has been prone to do, Ige is going to take advantage of that and be right there to dive through if the opportunity presents itself. Bektic is one of those guys who looks good from the jump, and if he maintains his composure, he can make some nice things happen. With that said, he is also that guy who will make a mistake after completely dominating the majority of it. So the value is there for Ige. Give me 15 minutes of Ige’s consistency and I will take that value all day as a dog. Give me the consistency of Ige over the inconsistency of Bektic.
The Pick: Ige
Derrick Lewis $9000 vs. Ilir Latifi $7200
This one is more common sense than anything else. Latifi is a high-pedigree wrestler with a solid compact frame, but all in all, he is undersized for 205 and now he is bumping up to heavyweight where he is extremely undersized. The 205 division without a doubt has the overall best powerful athletic fighters because they are big, athletic, but yet aren’t oversized and can still maintain some speed and pop. With that said, it is a major jump in size and power and for Latifi to be getting knocked out and undersized to guys like Volkan. Then can you imagine him fighting one of the bigger, more powerful men in the division above? There is no doubt his wrestling can cause some waves here because Lewis is not some wizard when he’s taken down. He is also known to gas out and quit a bit. I just find it really hard to believe that Latifi is going to be able to hold him down for 15 and avoid the power of Lewis. When I tell you that it only takes one from the big man, it only takes one. I was the only one who called it with that phrase when he fought Volkov and it literally only took one. Latifi is buying some time in this fight but eventually, unless Lewis completely gets outclassed, should be able to catch him with the equalizer at some point in this fight.
The Pick: Lewis
UFC 247 PRELIMS
James Krause $8100 vs. Trevin Giles $8500
Friday Night and while you guys are out enjoying yourselves, I am in the front of the laptop, drink a glass of wine updating the fights. Awesome Sauce. Well, the format has changed after Arroyo being a late scratch. However, the day was saved by James Krause pulling a stud move and taking the fight on less than 24 hours notice. Never was a huge advocate of Krause, but I am taking steps towards his direction now. On a 6 fight win streak and doing the UFC a solid here, it will be hard to deny him a major leap up the ladder if he wins this fight. Krause is a black belt in BJJ under Leonardo Pecanha and has a very sharp mind for the game. He is a fighter, yes, but he also has a trainers mentality. He understands the game very very well and he has an ability to see things from an intelligent perspective. Krause is another one of those fighters who has been flying under the radar because he has openly admitted that he can take fighting or leave it. It’s not something that he truly needs to do, but I think he is no dummy and knows that being a 6 fight win streak and doing what he is doing for Uncle Dana only means that there is most likely a clause in place giving him a big fight beyond directly after this one providing he wins. The issue here is he has not been in camp and this is a tall ask for any fighter. There is a big difference in being in shape and being in fight shape. However, he does stay extremely active and he understands that the call may come at any time. Giles, on the other hand, has a full camp but trained for a very different fighter than he is fighting now. Where he thought he could use his wrestling as an equalizer against Arroyo will not be that easy against the BJJ Black Belt in Krause. Now make no mistake, just because Krause is on a 6 fight win streak does not mean he is beating formidable opposition, but he is beating UFC level talent and that is all that really matters here. However, don’t ever let a number fool you. Records are only a number. I would rather a guy with a 500 record that fought a Murders Row, than a guy that is 6-0 that fought much lesser opposition. So in closing, I am picking Krause to win this fight because I just think he is the more seasoned and possess much better cage IQ, but this isn’t a wash by any stretch of the means. Giles may give him hell here, but I am going with the late replacement Vet.
The Pick: Krause
Andrea Lee $9200 vs. Lauren Murphy $7000
Murphy is your prototypical blue-collar gal who, as of late, had been showing very small increments of improvements. Say what you will about her athletic ability and just being behind the curve in slick and raw ability, but you can’t deny her durability and toughness to really embrace getting dirty in the cage. With that said, there is a point in time where speed, athleticism, and just overall better ability will end up trumping the sheer toughness. Lee may look like the southern bell but the girl can scrap. She has good standup, extremely slick grappling and an attitude to match. Lee has a very potentially good game that can make her a contender fairly quick in the division. She also has a marketing appeal to her that can be liked by many. A mother. Pretty southern bell, and a vicious game. All things that go hand in hand with appealing to the masses she does have. Murphy is a tough out for anyone but at the end of the day where is she really going. She has been there for a while and really hasn’t taken the steps to make any major leaps. I’m expecting Lee to have a rough go here with the tough Murphy, but I’m expecting her to win this fight with just accumulation or more activity.
The Pick: Lee
Alex Morono $9100 vs. Khaos Williams $7100
This fight should really be a fight Morono has the ability to coast. Williams is debuting here and comes in with a polished boxing background. So look for him to right off the bat look like the sharper man on the feet but don’t let that sway you right off the bat. Morono isn’t going to want to keep it there. The black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu has his own recipe to serve if and when he can get this to the ground. Morono also has a black belt in traditional karate which would allow him to be at least servable in areas where Williams might start to corner him with his boxing. I don’t think I can say the same for Williams. I know he has a few submissions under his belt but who were these regional fighters and what does that truly mean. Morono is not a world-beater, but he is a far cry from the regional circuit. Morono has proven he can beat people far beyond what Williams has faced, whereas Williams hasn’t proved anything to be trusted in any facet yet. It’s really not one to think about for me unless Morono completely underperforms here.
The Pick: Morono
Miles Johns $8600 vs. Mario Bautista $7600
Very, very good fight here. Miles Johns comes in with an undefeated record and a very good wrestling game behind him. He has developed into a very solid and well-rounded fighter, but his style will emulate one that will more than likely go to the cards. In 10 fights, six have gone to the cards with two by KO and two by submission. He will lean on his wrestling and control to gain his advantage, but Bautista is very, very tricky in this arena. Because, although he is not the wrestler that Johns is, he is extremely active there and isn’t the easiest to pin down. His sole loss was against Sandhagen, and quite honestly, that really doesn’t harm his stock. Bautista is a very solid fighter with a good pace and cardio that can really give Johns issues. I wouldn’t be shocked at all who wins, but I think I take the dog here with Bautista. I think he’s being a little overlooked here.
The Pick: Bautista
Domingo Pilarte $8200 vs. Journey Newson $8000
Both of these guys hold different traits, but you need to put the puzzle together to see where and what will fit with more sense. Pilarte is longer and a little more well rounded, but he really will tend to fight going backward at times and you can bully him into spots. He does understand how to use his length when he has that at his disposal, but it doesn’t take away the fact that he really can be bullied into situations. Newson is more bullish, and that can nullify the length of he gets inside on Pilarte. In the overall spectrum of the game, Pilarte probably holds more of the aces, but speed and aggression can be enough in this one, allowing Newson to get the nod from the judges. Super tough fight, but I’ll take Newson here.
The Pick: Newson
Andre Ewell $8400 vs. Jonathan Martinez $7800
Another really tough fight to call. Martinez is more than a one-trick pony, but he is not fully capable in any of those spots. There is no spot of his game where you can say he’s dominant. He is just there, and he has been ok, but there is nothing about his game. Ewell, on the other hand, is not well rounded, but he does specialize in his striking and he is very good at it. On the feet, he really understands how to use his attributes from range. However, if you can find his hips and drag this into the basement, Ewell will have some serious issues. Martinez really needs to dial in on getting this to the ground and taking away that striking of Ewell, but I just don’t think that he does enough in the eyes of the judges. Whereas Ewell will have a clear advantage to seek the judges’ attention when it’s on the feet. Really razor-thin fight, but I’ll take the fighter with a more solid identity to his game here.
The Pick: Ewell
Austin Lingo $8900 vs. Youssef Zalal $7300
Lingo comes in as a little finishing machine. From bell to bell, he is looking for the finish. He will set you up by moving forward and then uncork some big shots, looking for the killswitch. He will push forward until he gets what he wants, but against a long fighter like Zalal, you must be careful because he does have a thirst for pulling guard and looking for subs if you expose your neck in the process. If Lingo happens to get him to the floor, you can expect Zalal to be the more slippery one there, always hunting for subs if the opportunity presents itself. However, he can be pressured and in turn, it can look like his entire game is just untying. Both men have their pluses and minuses here. Both are very, very raw, but Lingo has that aggression that makes me key on him a little more here.
The Pick: Lingo
UFC 247 DRAFTKINGS
I mean, it’s Jon Jones. I think it would be silly not to have him in some lineups in a 5 round fight that seems personal right?
I’m not expecting him to win here, but with his power, I’m not going to fade him totally. Large field GPP, I will have a few punts.
The price scares me a little just because of the way Chookagian fights. She is not going to engage here, and that can alter some things. However, the upside is always there for Valentina, but I would just temper it back a bit.
Adams $8800 / Tafa $7400
Someone’s going out here, I believe, and I’m siding with Adams. Little pricey, but we need a finish and that’s what you are scoping for here. I don’t mind it, but he can be starched himself, so if you do play it, I would also back myself up a bit and hedge with a small fraction of Tafa as well.
I like Ige here at under $8k. I personally like him to win, and I think on a card that doesn’t have the greatest value, he is one of the better dog/value plays on the bill. I will have Ige in some lineups for sure.
I’m not fading him because he does spit out good volume when he is on. However, I will have more of Ige.
I really like Lewis here for a finish. I just hope he does it early enough to really make it pay off. But he has very good upside for a finish against the much smaller man in Latifi.
I may have a small share due to his ability to wrestle, but outside of that, I don’t think he’s a very good play.
I don’t see it. Fade
I hate the price tag, but he can cover it against a guy who moves forward.
This is a really tough play to get behind because Murphy is game and durable. I’m expecting her to win, but that 9200 dollar price tag does raise an eyebrow. Be safe here, but don’t avoid totally.
Her toughness is all that really drives me to give her any slight of a look, but I don’t think you need her.
This could be a sneaky play. All the people in the $9k range and he is sitting quietly. Don’t pass him up. He has upside.
I’m not crazy about his price here; I have to be honest. $8600 is a little disrespectful towards Bautista.
I like his price, and I like him. He has a very good chance of pulling this one out in a great fight. Don’t pass it up.
Pilarte $8200 / Newson $8000
Very close fight, but not uber crazy about it. You know what with scoring this even. Balance if you play with a slight lean on Newson.
Ewell $8400 / Martinez $7800
I don’t think you need this fight, but if you want my opinion, I’m picking Ewell. However, this could be a fight where the numbers aren’t flying in.
Lingo $8900 / Zalal $7300
There is a window for Zalal to sneak in a submission if Lingo gets sloppy, but I’m leaning more Lingo here to keep the pressure on Zalal. There is upside in the favor of Lingo, however, you have to be really careful here because they are both raw. With that said, Lingo is going to be extremely overlooked when you can have a guy like Lewis for 100 dollars more. Which would be a good little phantom play if you are multi-playing in GPP to switch it up a bit.
UFC 247 PRIZE PICKS
We have a new game in town and it is Prize Picks! This is such an awesome add on to the MMA landscape and I am so happy to be apart of such a cool and unique game. So what prize picks offers is very black and white and it ties in DFS and Wagering all in one format! Quick, easy to navigate, and so fun to play. Here is how it works.
Prize Picks will give you a hand full of fighters with their projected DFS score after their fight. Your job is to basically pick the over/under of their projected total correctly and you win! It’s as simple as that! The kicker is that you can parlay any fighter you want up to 4 fighters. It’s that simple.
I will be adding this to my article every week as an inclusive add on to my already extensive article.
I am trying to give you guys every outlet to win money with my article giving you the best bang for your buck and the ultimate ROI. Below I will give you some of the plays I will be looking at here. I am telling you right now that you will LOVE this game. Use the below link and use promo code ELITE to get started!
Lewis Inside Distance -140
1.4 to win 1
2.3 to win 1
Morono Inside Distance +125
Check out my latest MMA Podcast!