MadLab’s UFC 238 Breakdown and Predictions!!!
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Henry Cejudo $7900 vs. Marlon Moraes $8300 TITLE FIGHT
When you look at the dynamics of both men in this fight, you really need to understand how devastating that they both are at their given aces in their back pockets, but you also have to use common sense to an extent in which we will cover later. Marlon Moraes stormed into the UFC from the WSOF with a point to prove. In his very first fight in the UFC, his hype train was put to a halt when he lost a split decision to the always tricky Raphael Assuncao. Since then, he hasn’t turned back and literally made violent work of everyone that crossed his path. Beating names like Jon Dodson, Jimmie Rivera, Aljo, and redeemed himself in a huge way in his last fight against Raphael Assuncao to get that loss back. This kid is wound right. Powerful and has one of the trickiest head kicks in the game. When you look at him in an overall body of work you will think that he is a pure striker, but people fail to know that he is a legit black belt in BJJ under the great Ricardo Almeida. So is he a very well versed fighter on his feet? Absolutely. Is he best served there? Yes. However, he can play in the sandbox with you if you decide to tango with him there. With a 22-6 record, he has 10 by KO and 6 by way of submission proving my point that he is well rounded. In his 6 losses, he has an equal balance of 2 loses by KO, 2 by submission, and 2 by decision. So he is penetrable and he can be stopped or outworked. He is going to really have to be on his A game against the overnight star and 125 champ and now looking to become the 135 champ Henry Cejudo. Now when you look at MMA in a whole what do you really want in a fighter and what seems to be the most consistent style to be difficult to deal with? Wrestling. Solid wrestling is always going to give you a secondary level to resort to for safety or just a primary weapon to gain control time. Now what better person in the UFC to do so then Olympic The Gold Medalist himself. His wrestling is seamless and his hands have come to be extremely sharp and poetic at times coming from a wrestling background. Solid boxing, good footwork, and a gas tank that usually only high pedigree wrestlers will have. The biggest X-factor here for me is this and I really don’t utilize this often if at all. He beat what was known to be the pound for pound best fighter on the planet in DJ. Not beat him with a lucky punch or a flash knockout, but actually beat him by outworking him for 5 straight rounds. There is something to be said about that. I know styles make fights, but this kid is special, and if he can outwork DJ for 5 rounds, then there is no one he can’t beat on an on night in his division. The danger zone for him here is the 1st few rounds. Marlon is going to come with heat. Question mark kicks, chopping leg kicks, head kicks and just power striking. Henry is going to really have to play his cards right and play it safe with distance and timing. It would be very safe for him to watch the shots early on in the case he gets caught with a knee or something phantom coming in. However, throwing level change looks here and there will start to make Marlon think twice about opening up on his feet so easily because he knows he will have to now defend the takedowns and keeping his hips in space. For those of you new to this. Think of a boxing match. When you are only defending punches to the head and body, your basically defending one level. The second level is in MMA when now you need to defend not only strikes but you need to defend wrestling and takedowns. So you have a cautious string in your mind to not over pursue or overextend in order to not expose your hips. In turn, this will make you very very tentative to open up and engage. Cejudo is going to have to survive the first two rounds and keep Marlon guessing. After the 2nd round I think is where Cejudo really starts to implore his wrestling with the understanding that Marlon is starting to lose some snap and pop in his strikes. It’s hard to pick against Cejudo in this spot. Marlon has the power and the ability to finish anyone, but if Cejudo plays his cards right, he should really start to run away with this late as he secures his takedowns as he feels fit to do so.
The Pick: Cejudo
Tony Ferguson $8600 vs. Donald Cerrone $7600
Wow. Just wow. If the backstory of this fight for both men doesn’t intrigue you then nothing will. At one time, Cerrone was a complete boss and fighting him was always a dangerous game to play. Solid striking, slick submissions on the ground and just a badass demeanor made this guy a fan favorite for a long time. As time travels on age starts to get the best of all us and it seemed the ship was sailing for him right before our eyes. He was laced and beaten 4 out of 5 fights and the storybook ending was coming to a close. Just when we all thought he was now going to be a name and stepping stone for younger fighters coming up in the ranks, Cerrone cracked a beer and said “hold up… I ain’t done yet.” I don’t know if it was the birth of his child or he just caught fire with a second wind, but Cerrone has never ever looked better. Winning his last 3 fights in a row beating up and comer prospects like Mike Perry, Alexander Hernandez, and Ragin Al Iaquinta. All in which he was looked at to lose in some facet. He is kicking ass and taking names and after the fight with Connor fell to the wayside, he is now set to face a man with a very very different set of circumstances. Tony Ferguson has long been known as one of the more odd guys in the sport. Very interesting person to say the very least. I would say the only person as interesting as him, mindset-wise, would be Diego Sanchez. He has an extremely strong belief system in very bizarre training methods and healing protocols. However, if you ever watch how odd his methods are you will understand why it works when he’s in the cage. He is so unorthodox and although sometimes it just seems funny to watch, the guy has a method between every step and punch and he is a calculated assassin to say the very least. Insane ability to grapple his way out of bad situations and a striking style that you just can’t seem to put any sort of a bead on. Take all that and tie it into a mindset to kill or be killed and you have a very special human on your hands. With all this said he has finally taken a strange turn in his life in which you wonder if the wars he has been in has taken a toll on his well being. His wife had a restraining order put on him for very strange behavior that he had been showcasing. Looking at walls and claiming that the UFC was recording him, throwing holy water on his wife and a host of other odd behavioral patterns. He took a hiatus from fighting to make things right and even tho we have no idea where he is mentally I can tell you that the guy isn’t human anyway. He is someone that thrives in chaos and if there is no chaos then there is no Tony. He has not lost a fight since 2012 and might be the best-hidden secret that the UFC has to offer, but has been overlooked so many times. This is just an amazing story for both men, and the matchup has fight of the night candidate written all over it if they can keep this one slangin’ and bangin’. They matchup up amazing everywhere. On the feet will be a dynamic display from both men. but it’s the grappling exchanges that I am most intrigued about here. The extremely slick grappling of Cerrone against the slippery tricky 10th planet style of tony. This is nothing short of a treat ladies and gentlemen, but one where there needs to be a winner and a loser and I just think Tony is a different type of a human. Where most people break when they bend, Tony, as I said before, thrives in chaos. There won’t be a shocked bone in my body with whoever wins this fight, but I just think Ferguson brings Cerrone back down to earth a little here. His relentless style and his awkward dynamism can and will frustrate Cerrone to points where he will be backing up, and when you back up against Tony, he will start to throw spinning attacks, knees, and just a barrage of odd attacks from all angles. Cerrone does have an ability to show concern on his face when he fights and he is starting to go. I notice it with him when some can’t. If that same look arises I think Tony will see it too…
The Pick: Ferguson
Valentina Shevchenko $9600 vs. Jessica Eye $6600 TITLE FIGHT
Jessica is one of those fighters who for a while really didn’t understand who and what she was and where she belonged. After a very bad stint in the bantamweight division. Eye dropped 4 straight and her career just looked done and cut short. After making the smart decision to fight back in the flyweight division, Eye has looked quite different stringing off 3 consecutive wins against some decent competition. It seems she found her confidence, her game, and her swag again. The issue I have with her universally is that eye is typically not a finisher which means that majority of her fights are won on volume and just outworking her opposition. Which brings me to this one easy question. Do you really believe that she is going to outwork Valentina? Does anyone really ever outwork Valentina? Let’s just answer this and move on. The answer is it is highly unlikely that Eye can come close to Valentina’s work rate. She will literally need to wrestle her way to victory here which is highly unlikely. If she had bone crushing power or ungodly submission skills I would be a little more eager to have pause, but she doesn’t and the realistic thought is that she is going to get worked here.
The Pick: Valentina
Jimmie Rivera $6900 vs. Petr Yan $9300
Another great one here. Jimmie Rivera was on an absolute tear for a while and it seemed that his signature TSK striking pedigree coupled with his very underrated wrestling and wrestling defense would slowly fly from under the radar into contention. It was looking like that for quite a while and he was starting to really edge to a point where it was an actual reality until his nasty KO loss to Marlon Moraes. He bounced back and won a decision to Dodson and then in his last fight lost to Aljo. You can’t write a kid off that is 22-3, that is just ludicrous, but what I can say is that it seemed Rivera was a little trigger shy in his last fight. Almost like he is fighting cautious and not loose. Like he is fighting with a feeling that his back is tightly against the wall at this point when it really isn’t. Sometimes the pressure that isn’t really there can affect your performance. You’re afraid to make mistakes and you become a little trigger shy. There is a double-edged sword for him here. He is fighting Petr Yan, a guy that will not give you much time to think. Which means Jimmie won’t have the time to be trigger shy. He will need to throw and fight on sheer instinct, which can clear him, or running through game planning and mistakes in his mind. On the flip side, he’s fighting Petr Yan. Lol. The guy is an absolute beast and can beat you down everywhere. Jimmie is much more of a calculated boxer. He likes to pick and choose his spots and make his reads. He will come in, throw some leather, backup and reset. He isn’t one to really engage in chaos and I think that can be a problem in this one. Chaos is going to happen and chaos is what he is going to have to handle. I like Jimmie. Always did and he is clearly capable of winning this fight. I’m 25 fights he has only been stopped one time by Marlon and he has all the skills to match that durability and he is also the Vet in there. With that said he is going to have to show me more that he is back to old form before I pick him against a guy like Petr Yan that is all action all the time. The people like action, the judges like action, and Petr Yan likes action. If Jimmie doesn’t fight with desperation in this fight, then it can slip away from him quickly.
The Pick: Yan
Blagoy Ivanov $7500 vs. Tai Tuivasa $8700
A heavyweight fight here with two guys that can bang. Both men are not visually athletic but the thirst for survival and war is clearly there. Ivanov survived being stabbed in the heart only to survive and find himself in this spot. So you want to talk about a man with a constitution. Is he very good? No. But you can’t deny that his sheer will to survive and win has been a major player in getting him to this point. With a record of 17-2, the sambo practitioner has a good balance of 6 by sub and 6 by KO. In his 2 loses he has only been finished once by way of submission. With that said he has never faced anyone quite like Tuivasa. The Mark Hunt prospect brings a very athletic and fast style for a big man. He is powerful, fast and pretty well versed for a big man. He came into the UFC undefeated and with a very good boxing background that was starching people from jump street. His short but perfect was ended when he faced JDS in his last fight, proving that he still has much growing to do, but a loss like that can do wonders for a young man’s career. This fight will truly show his progression physically and mentally. You will learn a lot about him in this fight. You learn a lot about the moral fabric of people when they lose. It’s easy to win, but it’s how you handle a loss and bounce back that is important to see. With that said, as much as I think Ivanov is a tough SOB he doesn’t match the skill set and speed of Tuivasa and despite both men not having good glaring gas tanks, it can really come down to who applies the pressure harder, faster, and first and I just trust Tai more in this spot to do so.
The Pick: Tuivasa
Nina Ansaroff $6700 vs. Tatiana Suarez $9500
This fight is really one to watch for one reason and one reason only. To see how dominant Suarez really is. Nina is not a bad fighter. She is actually pretty good on her feet and if she can keep it standing then there is a chance she can give Suarez some problems. The problem is keeping it on the feet, which is highly unlikely. Suarez is just a brutal grinding wrestler that will literally take your soul when she gets you in the ground. If you are skilled enough to get up then most likely you will end up back there at some point. Her wrestling is of high pedigree and she knows it. To keep this short the only shot Nina has in this fight is to somehow, someway, and with some stroke of luck to keep this standing long enough to get off where she is better than Suarez. With all that said it is much easier said than done and I personally just don’t see it happening. I for one will be quite shocked if she can somehow pull this one off. Suarez is going to show you how impactful high pedigree wrestling can be in women’s MMA.
The Pick: Suarez
Calvin Kattar $8800 vs. Ricardo Lamas $7400
This is just another good fight that justifies such a highly hyped card. Calvin Kattar came into the UFC displaying a very good striking style. Tying his combinations together very well and overall durability makes him a very tough person to handle in open space. I would say that his one area where he can use work is his grappling. Although it suffices to a point, people know that the bread and butter is when both feet are on the ground. With a 19-3 record, Kattar has 9 by way of KO. In his 3 losses, he was only stopped once in his career by way of submission. He will take on another hard scrapper and a serious Jiu-Jitsu player in Ricardo Lamas. Lamas is one of the silent vets of the game. At 37 years of age the former All American Wrestler from Elmhurst College transitioned into MMA using that skill as his backbone and foundation to the MMA circuit. With a 19-7 record Lamas hasn’t had the easiest of roads in his career but he has had some good spots and some bad spots and as his career is winding down it seems he understands what is at stake in every single fight for him at this point. His KO loss to Josh Emmett a few fights ago was the kind that concerned me going forward. Certain fights or finishes can really take something from you, and in that fight, I really thought that was the case. However, he came back losing a close split to Bektic and then an impressive KO win against the almost indestructible Darren Elkins. This fight really is intriguing in a sense Lamas is the smarter and more seasoned fighter but he is now 37 and Kattar is a very polished up and coming fighter that should really be able to still improve over time but this is without a doubt in my guesstimation one of his toughest tests to date. So where do we go from here? Well, I will say that Kattar does not want to play the chess game with Lammas. He is far better on the ground and will most likely be able to control Kattar there once he grounds him. So Kattar wants to keep this standing and test the questionable wear on the chin of Lamas. This is another fight that has zero shock value in who wins but I need to go with the fresher fighter in Kattar. I think he is able to elude the takedowns and keep this on the feet frustrating Lamas with the younger, sharper and crisper striking down the stretch. He will need to watch his neck and limbs if this hits the ground tho.
The Pick: Kattar
Aljamain Sterling $8500 vs. Pedro Munhoz $7700
This will be a fight of calculator vs. aggressor. Aljo is extremely long, fast, wiry on the ground yet calculated in his approach. He isn’t one to over pursue or really engage in a firefight if he has anything to say about it. The Serra-Longo product is extremely athletic and understands how to utilize weight distribution when he finds himself in a positive grappling situation. The brown belt in BJJ under Matt Serra is no stranger to the submission game either. With a 17-3 record Aljo has 2 wins by KO, 7 by way of submission, and 8 by way of decision. In his 3 losses, he has lost 2 by decision and only 1 by KO. He is coming off a 3 fight win streak in which he has clearly staked his name in the hat for serious contendership. He will have a tough task ahead of him against the always dangerous Pedro Munhoz who can be calculated but also embraces chaos. In his last fight against Cody, he bit down on his mouth guard and literally fought fire with fire until he dropped Cody to win the fight after being rocked himself on a few occasions in that one. It was a hard fought win that really showed the brass on this kid. With a very similar record of 18-3, the black belt in BJJ is a master at finding your neck. With half of his wins coming by way of submission, 6 of them have been by the way of Guillotine choke. In his 3 losses, he has never been finished and he is extremely tough to keep in one spot. As good as Aljos wrestling is and as wiry as he can be in space, Munhoz is very hard to deal with and I think his ability to grapple will give pause to Aljo in spots. If he beats Munhoz it will have to be by way of decision because he will not submit Munhoz and he isn’t a punching horse. So that leaves volume in numbers with strikes and I just don’t know Munhoz is going to buy in for that long before he starts to close space and look for hips. Super close matchup but I’m leaning Munhoz here. I think he is more durable and I think he has a little more to offer the judges with attempts and damage.
The Pick: Munhoz
Alexa Grasso $7800 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz $8400
Grasso is one of those young prospects who they put a little shine on a little too quickly. At 25 years of age, she has 4 fights in the UFC and has been a bit of a roller coaster ride for her. A rotation of wins and loses. With a record of 10-2 (both coming in the UFC), Grasso has shown the ability to stand and bang with you but she has also shown some clear hikes in her game and that just comes with age and experience. In her 10 wins, 4 have been by way of KO and 6 by way of decision. It’s clear that she is going to want to keep this standing and it’s where she is most comfortable in the film you watch of her. With that said, I have noticed a serious drawback in her firing ability as of late. She is not so eager to pull the trigger and that can be a big problem here. KK is an extremely high volume and polished striker. Don’t let her pre-fight leaning against the cage relaxed looking pretty demeanor fool you. When that bell rings she is in the leather exchanging business. She is one of those fighters that fought everyone in the division and when she makes it to the very top, she seems to get edged out slightly. With a 12-4 record, her only losses were by the hands of JJ, Claudia Gadelha, Michelle Waterson and current champion Jessica Andrade. She was finished only 2 times in her career and has a wealth of experience and knowledge in big spots. It’s so hard to pick against her in a fight will Grasso’s name just would look so odd up there with those names. At the end of the day, this is a fight and we all have off nights or face fighters that just have our numbers no matter how much better we are, but riding Grasso in the hopes that KK has an off night is just foolish and I don’t see that happening. KK should just outwork her with volume and range here showing Grasso and us that this is a little too big of a hill to climb when KK really needs this one after dropping 2 straight.
The Pick: KK
Angela Hill $7100 vs. Yan Xiaonan $9100
I feel like Angela Hill fights every week. It’s just insane to me. This is the 3rd fight in like 3 months for her and it seems like she isn’t slowing down. She is coming off of a close win to Jodie Esquibel and before that a loss to Randa Markos. Angela Hill has some very good volume when she engages but as of late she has really been tight to engage. It seems as if she is changing things up from fight to fight and it is a far cry from her Invicta days or even in her debut war against Jessica Andrade in which she lost but showed a tremendous warriors spirit in that fight. She has tapered back a bit and it’s odd to see quite Frankly. She has the length, the speed and the skill set to really be a solid fighter in the division but it seems that she has yet found her home in the cage with pure certainty. She also tends to go to the decision, but her volume would always, for the most part, give her that edge. In 9 wins, 6 have been by decision. In her 6 losses, 4 have been by way of decision and 2 by the way of submission. She takes on Yan, a Japanese fighter with a 10-1-1 record with her only loss coming by way of submission. Yan like Hill is a long fighter that uses range fairly well. Unlike Hill, she has a perfect ratio of finishes and has never let her wins touch the horn. With all 10 wins coming by finish (5 KO and 5 Submission). This is a tough stab here because both women have shown their spots, but it seems Hill has been more inconsistent, and for some reason, she is accepting fights rather quickly with no breaks in camps. It’s like she has an agenda or she is in a rush to get somewhere. Eventually, that is going to creep up on you when you don’t allow your body to rest. This may be that time. I think Yan is going to be able to match Hill in the striking with a possible disadvantage in volume, but at the end of the day, she does have the ground to work with as well where I think she will have the advantage in the end. Tough fight to call but Hills thirst for quick turnaround fights is eventually going to burn her out and this just might be that time. I could be wrong but she needs to do more before I have more faith in her as a contender.
The Pick: Yan
Bevon Lewis $9000 vs. Darren Stewart $7200
As young as Bevon Lewis is in his career he has a very intelligent Ora about him. He is well spoken, calm and really just handles everything so well. You can tell a lot about a person and who they are by the way they handle themselves on a public speaking level and Bevon Lewis reminds me very much of a Uriah hall type character. His fighting style is unique in a sense that for such a young fighter he does carry that into the cage. He throws a very good array of punches, elbows and kicks that really tie together well and are thrown in a pretty solidly timed concert with some sort of intent behind them. I wouldn’t consider him a devastating puncher but it’s the way he throws his combos that really can cause the damage. Training at Jackson Wink gives him an opportunity to also train with Jon Jones in which you can see some of his striking patterns have been Jon Jones-esq in a very tapered down manner, which never hurts obviously. He will be taking on Darren Stewart who in his own right is a tough customer but really hasn’t been able to find his stride all that well. At one point in time, he truly had 1 foot out the door losing 3 straight and then bouncing back luckily tying 2 straight wins together and losing his last. So he is eager to get back on the winning shelf himself before he finds his back against the wall yet again. With a 9-4 record, he has never been KOd but submitted 2 times. In his 9 wins, 7 have been by the way of KO so the kid has obvious power and if you watch him fight you can see it in the delivery of them. However, he isn’t tied together too well when it comes to the delivery of his game plan and that is an issue with him. He seems all over the place at times like he doesn’t know how where his comfort zones are. With that said he is better than his UFC streak has shown and he is going to be the stronger puncher and more seasoned fighter. I just think Bevon Lewis being as intelligent as he seems licks things up quicker than the average fighter. He is the type of guy that if he truly is a talent then you will see progressions in him every fight. I just think the UFC is more behind him at this point then they are Stewart and even tho they are pushing any one of them, the potential lies more with Lewis then it does Stewart at this point in time. This can be a super close fight and you never know how and who is going to show up on either end. Stewart has a tendency of having two faces and Lewis is just raw, but I’m going with Lewis here. I think he will be the smarter of the two in there and be able to set some traps for Stewart to stumble upon allowing him to score some points and win some control time in the judges’ eyes.
The Pick: Lewis
Eddie Wineland $8200 vs. Grigorii Popov $8000
Wineland is an aging vet but he still has some good chops to him. His durability is obviously always going to be a concern going forward, but at the end of the day, the guy has skills and has faced all styles. Nothing should really surprise him here. I think Wineland is in line for a win if he shows up and is right all the way around or doesn’t get caught. The debuting fighter has shown some glimmer of good spots but I think this is a spot where he is just a little outclassed and Wineland shows him that outside of catching him with something clean, he has a little more to learn.
The Pick: Wineland
Joanne Calderwood $8100 vs. Katlyn Chookagian $8100
There is something about Chook that seems to have a wrench in her game. It seems she hit a certain point and just never transcended from there. She seems like she never fights well above her opposition but tends to fight within the confines of exactly what she needs to do to get by. In her last 6 fights, she has gone to split decision 3 of those times. That Is a clear indication that she is doing just enough to win but also that is not a comfortable situation from a picking perspective. Even tho she has some slick grappling she tends to not use it as often as she should. She will be facing Joanne Calderwood in which is a very tough grappler and just a tough scraper. She will move forward, and when she sees that you can’t hurt her, she will continue to move forward and pressure. Chook will have to keep her at bay with her Jab but I think Calderwood will break space on her and make this uglier and even tho Chook has a good grappling game, I am not sure she will be able to fight in the chaos of Calderwood if she brings it. Tough spot but I am going with Calderwood here.
The Pick: Calderwood
- Cejudo $7900
At a $7900 dog play, you’re giving me the guy who beat DJ for the strap and Olympic Gold Medalist? He is coming up for the 135 strap, but 5 rounds and the ability to grind for the duration? Even without a finish, he can do plenty to hit value. I like it.
- Moraes $8300
To me, his price is great also. At $8300, to me, he has a window to win this by KO. It will have to be in the first 3 rounds in my opinion. However, if he finds his mark, it can def happen. So I wouldn’t sleep on him here, but I will have more Cejudo in this spot.
- Ferguson $8600
People are afraid of him due to his mental issues as of late. Totally understandable. However, he is not a normal human and the guy’s constitution with fighting is on a different playing field. There is a clear opportunity to finish an on-fire Cerrone here, but his price is a little iffy. However, he is all action all the time and I don’t mind the price when it’s for a guy like Ferguson.
- Cerrone $7600
He is red hot right now and seems like he is reborn. He had been counted out a few too many times as of late, and he is looking to prove the people wrong once again. At $7600, there are windows for him here, but I just don’t see him finishing Ferguson and he will need to really be on his P’s and Q’s. My question is how long can this streak last? Interesting. I won’t fade him, but I also can’t go against Ferguson heavy at all in this spot in a fight that I think Cerrone has a chance to win but ultimately loses.
- Valentina $9600
She is a little overpriced for me, and even tho she is an absolute beast, her price tag will really cause issues with the lineup from a pricing perspective. She can finish her, but Eye is not easy to disconnect, so it will be interesting to see how long this one goes. I would say you can proceed if you want, but I would def tread lightly and proceed with caution.
- Jessica Eye $6600
She is really going to have to wrestle like she has never wrestled before to win this one, and even then, doing it for 5 rounds is not going to be easy. I can see her maybe impressing early, but after that, I see Valentin just outclassing her. I know the price is intriguing, but she needs lightning in a bottle.
- Jimmie Rivera $6900
Jimmie just seems to be a bit stuck in the mud as of late. It seems he has been using the same method in every fight no matter win or lose, and that’s ok, if the majority of the time it works, which it absolutely does. With that said, eventually people will have that blueprint down, and then you need to resort to new bones. The price is super intriguing, and he is very tough indeed so a small taste I don’t mind, but I think Yan can really make things messy for Jimmie in there. Hard pace, good power and well versed everywhere. Very, very small if any at all.
- Petr Yan $9300
Large tag on a guy who is fighting a very scrappy and for the most part strategic and durable fighter in Rivera. I just think his volume will be too much here for Rivera, but the price tag is a concern. You aren’t getting rid of Jimmie that quick unless you catch him which is possible, but I think Jimmie has the chops to at least make this one interesting. I think Yan rolls, but just be cautious of that price tag.
- Ivanov $7500 / Tuivasa $8700
If you’re looking at talent pool here, then the price tag is about right to me, but this is 2 big heavyweights who are looking to really bang it out. Both men at this weight have clear paths for a KO, but I can really see Tuivasa being the lead in the pack to get the finish here. With that said, his tag is a little much, but I am expecting a finish so I will have some flavor on him. As far as Ivanov, I think I will pass here.
- Nina Ansaroff $6700 / Tatiana Suarez $9500
Let’s make this short. I like Suarez in this fight, and I would dare to say, Nina’s only chance is to keep this standing and challenge Suarez on the feet where she isn’t really tested yet due to her dominance on the ground. It’s just hard to believe Nina can keep this standing for 15 minutes. $9500 is a little steep, but Suarez has all the opportunities to put on a wrestling clinic if she gets her wrestling going early. As far as Nina? She will really need to keep this standing, and I don’t think she has the firepower to keep her off of her for long. So I’m off her even at that discount price.
- Calvin Kattar $8800
At $7400, he is a good play in a fight I think he has a great shot to win. Lamas presents good danger on his feet but more when it hits the mat. However, he has also shown the ability to get clipped, and Kattar has the ability to do that. I’m interested.
- Ricardo Lamas $7400
Little pricey here for my taste in a fight I think he may lose. I’m off it.
- Aljo $8500
Aljo is very calculated, and I really don’t see him putting up major points here nor do I see him finishing Pedro. His tag isn’t terrible, but for me, I think I can find better value elsewhere.
- Munhoz $7700
He showed he is durable and willing to get into a firefight against Cody, and at any moment in time, he can have your neck. For that reason, he is worth some swings for me in this spot as a dog play and a sub $8k play to open some cap room.
- Grasso $7800
She isn’t bad, but she is still young and hasn’t really impressed me all that much to take her or trust her against someone who has really only lost to the top of the food chain in KK.
- Kowalkiewicz $8400
She throws enough volume, and she is going to really look to lock down an important win here. I think her price is fine if she fights her fight. I am interested.
- Hill $7100
The price is actually strangely blown out of proportion, but I still don’t trust Hill. This will be her 3rd fight in about 3 months, and she has not really pulled the trigger hard as of late. I have seen much much worse plays at $7100, but I am really not interested.
- Yan $9100
Too expensive for me. As bad as Hill has looked in her past few fights, she is still pretty durable and tough for the most part. I don’t want any positioning on this one.
- Lewis $9000
Pricey but the kid is smart and has a very Jon-ish type style to his striking. Makes sense considering he trains with Jones. The price is steep for such a raw and young guy, but I do see him being a little too much in terms of volume and variety for Stewart. Very, very small swing here.
- Stewart $7200
I have seen worse pricing out there, and he is going to be the stronger and savvier vet in there, but I just don’t trust him enough. Wouldn’t hate you for wanting to take a swing, but I may sit back here.
- Wineland $8200
The dude is a very savvy vet, and if he wasn’t aged and worn, then this line would be much, much wider. But father time catches us all, and Wineland has had his fair share of fights. With that said, I think they are disrespecting him a smidge here, and I think this is really his fight to win if he comes out dialed in. In a large field GPP, I wouldn’t mind taking a few small plugs here.
- Popov $8000
Debuting fighter with a calculated striking style. Wineland is aging so anything here wouldn’t shock me, but if I am going to take this fight, then I would tend to lean Wineland’s way more due to his experience.
- Calderwood $8100 / Chookagian $8100
If you decide to play with fire here, I would suggest you hedge it. With that said, my official pick is a swing on Calderwood. But this is a fight that can be boring and slow.
I am playing the board here for this card. You don’t have to, but I always give you what I do and you can gauge from there. Good Luck!
- Cejudo +120 1 unit to win 1.2
- Ferguson -130 1.3 units to win 1
- Ferguson by KO/TKO +230 (.5 Units to win 1.15)
- Kattar -130 1.3 units to win 1
- Tuivasa -135 1.35 units to win 1
- Munhoz +125 1 unit to win 1.25
- Karolina Pick em’ 1 unit to win 1 unit
- Yan -165 1.65 units to win 1
- Wineland -140 1.4 units to win 1
- Calderwood +110 1 unit to win 1.1
- Lewis -155 No Play 1.55 to win 1
- Suarez -700 No Play
- Valentina -1050 No Play
- Petr Yan -315 No Play
- (Unless Parlayed)
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