I’m back, looking at that sweet, gorgeous Champions League slate that took place over Tuesday/Wednesday of this week. For me personally, it was an up and down week, and I’ll explain why. From a betting perspective, our main plays went 4-1…
I’m back, looking at that sweet, gorgeous Champions League slate that took place over Tuesday/Wednesday of this week. For me personally, it was an up and down week, and I’ll explain why. From a betting perspective, our main plays went 4-1!
I know we have a lot of new people to soccer betting/gambling, so before we jump into the UCL review, I figured I’d put a few notes down here to help ease you into the sport.
- Soccer is a 90-minute game.
- Going bonkers about how bad a bet is 15/20 minutes into the game will cause unnecessary stress (unless U3 MCI/CHE is already OVER after 20 minutes…).
- Goals tend to come in bunches, especially late in games.
- This is particularly true in tournaments or cup competitions.
- Totals are in play till the last kick of the ball.
- Keep this in mind for live betting.
- You will never run out of games to bet on with soccer, 12 months a year.
- Pace yourself. Pick your spots.
- Soccer Betting Terminology
- Draw/No Bet – This is not the same as betting on the game to end in a tie, or draw. If the team you are backing wins, you win the bet. If the game ends in a tie, you receive your entire wager back but do not win any money.
- Team Goal Total – This is an over or under bet on how many goals 1 of the teams will score.
With all that said, soccer is the best sweat of any sport. There is constant action. Totals are in play till the very last second. There is always drama. With the addition of VAR (Video Assistant Referee), we have added drama. I’ll save the VAR conversation for another day…
OK, let’s jump into the slate. I mentioned I had an up and down week. Specifically, I lost in cash and won in GPP. In total, I had a slight losing week overall, which is disappointing because I feel we were on the right plays, but I couldn’t string it together.
As always, let’s take a look at the $25 single entry double up tournament. This slate encompassed all four games over the two days. This is generally a good gage for all CASH contests. We have a mix of sharp and casual players. The cash line ended up at 88 points. I ended with 75 but had one major error that led to my demise.
As a reminder, our CASH CORE was Alves (14.75), Pogba (-1), Sancho (3.75), Di Maria (18).
Ok, let’s separate the good and the bad.
- Pogba (YES POGBA…I’ll explain)
- Di Maria
- This was actually a GPP lineup I entered by mistake (What an idiot).
Ok, as mentioned, this was a GPP lineup, and I’ve now done this like three of the last six weeks. Typically, my process is to enter the contest I’ll be playing with a dummy lineup earlier in the week. I’ll then go back and edit that dummy lineup to be my main GPP build, as that is what I mostly play. I then build one cash LU and go back to edit those events with the cash lineup.
^^^^This process will be changing! Also, as you guys can probably see, I want GOALS GOALS GOALS in my GPP builds. This leads to one or two big wins throughout the year, which is what has made me a profitable player long term.
Alright, on to the good and bad. A lot of you are probably asking why is Pogba listed under the GOOD category? He was 86% owned. He was underpriced. While we wanted his score to be much higher, with his ownership and price, it was essentially a free square in double up contests. BUT WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER 14% THAT DIDN’T ROSTER HIM?? There is no guarantee the money was used wisely elsewhere, and even if it was, who cares? Go beat the other 86% with the rest of your roster. Why this is good is we’ve eliminated a bit of variance. Pogba at 86% owned can do us more harm than good if we don’t roster him. The 14% are puffing out their chest today, but realistically, if he hits even a decent floor game, they are likely looking up the leaderboard at the 86% who did. Pogba has had at least one goal or assist in every game but one since Ole has taken over. Tuesday was a fluke made worse by the two yellow cards/red card. The play was solid.
What really killed me, and others, was Marcus Rashford. I thought Rashford was a cash play. The theory was PSG were depleted, playing on the road and United were likely to win. If United are likely to win, outside of Pogba, who else will need to perform at a high level? Well…Marcus Rashford. In hindsight, this was the glaring error when we had players with floors like Di Maria (cash core) or Ziyech sitting right there. Was my judgment clouded by the recent showings of Hazard or Aguero? Maybe. I wasn’t expecting a three-goal performance from Rash but figured one min, which is never safe to assume. I was wrong.
Jadon Sancho is listed in the bad for two reasons: 1) His score. His performance was actually good/great in the first half but didn’t result in enough DFS points. The second half was iffy. & 2) His ownership. I honestly thought he and Pogba would both be over 60% owned. At that ownership and price structure, I’ll take that all day and beat less than half the field with the rest of my lineup. For him to get only 23% was surprising. Live and learn.
Other Good and Bad
Alves was the main play once he was confirmed in at the wing position. The CS was unexpected, but to get to 11 without it shows what a good play it as at $2.7k. My mistake was not rostering him on 100% of my LUs.
Vertonghen – This was not someone I rostered enough of because I pivoted to Hakimi off my Guerreiro LUs. However, he was strongly recommended in the chat, and I called him Wednesday’s Alves almost jokingly. Little did I know, he’d treble Alves’ score!!
Mirante was not a terrible play but not a great one either. I honestly thought this game would be 0-0 for 60 or 70 minutes and then the teams would kind of hold court and head to Portugal in a few weeks. Well, I had the first part right, but then three goals in 10 minutes resulted in Mirante losing the clean sheet. He only saved one shot, so in that sense, his ceiling was pretty low for his price. This was more figuring out where to spend money than a play I really wanted to make.
Alright, let’s take a look at the winning GPP lineup from the UCL $25k Round of 16 Opener on DK. Top prize was $5k and someone called Tazza1112 took it down.
This was quite the build…
As you can see, the real separation occurred on Wednesday. Getting Vertonghen at only 10% and Lloris at 12% was the nuts. Eriksen over Son was the big six-point difference that made this team worth $5k vs. $300. Zaniolo was a play I mentioned in chat but can’t take any credit. I only had him on 4% of my rosters, but he did make my best lineup, which is listed below. The biggest takeaway? There are no blunders (maybe Bale) and goalkeeper variance is super tilting.
Unfortunately, I had a bust in Gotze and a below-par performance from Bale, but the real killer was not having Lloris.
Overall, I feel we were on the right players. Roster construction was the big decider for this week’s slate.
No EPL this weekend. There are FA Cup matches, and if DK decides to throw some contests out there, I’ll be in the chat talking through plays and bets. Chelsea play Manchester United on Monday in the FA Cup. I’m guessing they’ll at least put up a Showdown slate for that game. If I don’t talk to you before then, I’ll see you in the chatroom.