THESE ARE THE CHAMPIONSSSSSS!!!
We are back for Round Two of the UCL group play. We have an early two game slate and then the main six game slate which will be the basis for this article. Let’s not waste any time with foreplay.
To the desert…
-Red Star Belgrade +200 2.5 (+105o/-125u)
-Galatasaray +850 3 (-120o/EVENu)
-Juventus -220 3 (+115o/-145u)
Bayer Leverkusen +650
-Lokomotiv Moscow +500 2.5 (+125o/-150u)
Atletico Madrid -150
-Man City -1400 4 (-125o/EVENu)
Dinamo Zagreb +2500
-Tottenham +210 3 (EVENo/-120u)
Bayern Munich +115
What is up with the line in the Olympiakos/Red Star game? I know Olympiakos are favorites but I expect them to cross through into the -115 or even worse territory. That one has me shaking my head a bit. The travel is no fun to Serbia but…
PSG are still without Neymar. The atmosphere in Turkey is always bonkers. But yes, PSG are rightfully big favorites. Second highest total on the board as well.
I’m very interested in this Juve and Leverkusen game. For starters, I’m not convinced this Juve team are world beaters. Second, Leverkusen threw points away and disappointed their fans in game one of this competition. A 2-1 home loss to the perceived weakest team isn’t the best start. Couple that with them not scoring a goal (it was an OG) and you’d think the Italian team would be the favorites that they are.
I really don’t want any part of this Lokomotiv/Atletico game. Loka had a great performance in game one but with that win will feel like they are playing with house money a bit. Atleti drew with Juve and will be pushing for a win here. A bit interesting really.
How many City players can we fit? That’s the big question. Monster favorites at home with the biggest total. Shove em in! Not really. In fact, Zagreb actually looked really, really good against Atalanta, a team I grabbed a ton of shares of assuming Zagreb was trash. City are much better than Zagreb. They are much better than Atalanta. Grab pieces of City but not all in.
Tottenham and Bayern are two teams in completely different situations. One is a perennial winner going through a roster transition as older players were phased out. The other is Tottenham. I would think Vegas would have this game closer than it is at the moment but surely Bayern have the edge.
- Aguero – MCI – #10.2
#1 forward on the slate for me. He’s got everything. Goal scoring odds. Game odds. Total. Form. Jesus is right there but Aguero is fresh after Gabby started this past weekend. I expect a double from Sergio.
- Ronaldo – JUV – $9.8k
It was close between he and Aguero for me. Ronny has more of a floor with his shoot-from-anywhere freedom. Also on direct free kicks and penalty duty. He might just win someone a GPP tomorrow.
- Di Maria – PSG – $9.7k
His price jumped a little from last time out when he was excellent but without Neymar he’s in consideration for cash and GPP. Galatasaray are stingy in general. They’ve only conceded one goal in their last four played.
- Mahrez – MCI – $9.6k
Obviously you can’t play all of these high priced players but they are all good plays. I like them in this order. Mahrez tends to tear up UCL opponents but amongst these heavyweights and with options off the bench, I’ll grab the others first.
- Felix – ATL – $7.3k M/F
This Don is going to be one of the best players in the world someday. As of right now, he’s the best player on Atleti already. Away to Russia is never a place I really want to attack, but if anyone can do it, it’s this kid.
- Orsic – ZAG – $5.4k
Have you ever almost played a guy but last second decide not to and he goes off? Yeah…I almost wrote this guy up last time out but I was way too high on Atalanta and decided to hold off. Three goals later… For his price and with City’s issues at the back I’m 100% ok with this play.
- De Bruyne – MCI – $10k
He’s questionable to play but I’m hoping that Q keeps his ownership down… not likely to happen. Even at $10k on a big slate like this the game line and total makes this a nearly must play.
- Valbuena – OLY – $8.6k
This may surprise some folks but I love Valbuena for this slate. For one, I think Vegas got it wrong and Olympiakos should be bigger favorites. Two, he has such a large share of their attack that he’s worth this price. On penalties as well. I’m semi-hoping KDB is out so I can go Valbuena/Gundogan.
- Perisic – BAY – $7.6k
I’d rather pay this price than all the way up for Lewandowski. Bagged a goal against Koln and fired four shots. He’s adding that to his game with Bayern more than he was at Inter where he was strictly a winger. Floor and upside.
- Gundogan – MCI – $6.3k
IF DKB can’t go Tuesday, I’ll have Gundogan everywhere. He nearly shipped us every tournament this past weekend but decided to shoot it to row z over the bar from three yards out with an open goal. We need to have a short memory in DFS. Let’s hope he does as well. He’ll take over set pieces if KDB misses and with Rodri in form, Gundy will be able to get forward.
- Mario – LKM – $5k
This is a new look Lokomotiv team and Joao Mario has a lot of responsibility in the side. He grabbed an assist last time out while putting in three crosses.
- Olmo – ZAG – $4k
I’m not all in Zagreb or anything but the quality of player you get for the price is too good. He’s down the list a bit in terms of my favorite plays but pt/$ and for the price savings he’s a nice option.
- Kimmich – BAY – $6.2k
Expensive for a defender? Maybe. Name me someone else that I said bet your life this guy gets 2x at this position. Not the easiest matchup but here is your pay up option at D. Also I love that he was back at RB last game. I don’t love him for this price playing through the middle.
- Leovac – ZAG – $4.2k
Do we think he’ll get a goal and an assist this game? No. However against Atalanta he was a stat monster. They’ll have less of the ball and are on the road but a spot to look for.
- Otamendi – MCI – $3.6k
Terrible 1v1 defender 40 yards from his own goal but that’s not why we play him. We like him for his aggressiveness to find the ball on set pieces. Add in the CS upside and this is well worth it.
- Wendell – LEV – $3.3k
I get it’s tough matchup and they are on the road but what’s up with this price? Weiser is fine as well for $3.6k if he starts at fullback. Not a huge crosser of the ball and against LKM as big favorites he only put up 5.8 pts. His ceiling is limited but at $3.3 I’ll take a stab.
- Aurier – TOT – $4.4k
Suspended in Prem play after a red card, I’m guessing he’ll get the start here knowing that. For the price, he certainly has the ability to do enough to hit value here. Lucas Hernandez isn’t the best defending left mid and Perisic is much more attacking as well. Not a terrible spot.
- Rybus – LOK – $3.5k
A cheap fullback worth playing? Yes, please.
- Muslera – GAL – $3.7k
LOVE this price in this game. As mentioned above, Galatasaray are solid defensively and while PSG are still a quality attacking team, they simply aren’t the same without Neymar. ALL IN…welll…let’s wait for team news but i’m likely all in.
- Livakovic – ZAG – $3.6k
I’m spending the extra $100 to avoid the potential ass pounding by City. If you need to save $100…go here! Either are fine/good plays.
- Szeczney – JUV – $5.6k
Super super super expensive for how average he is but Lev looked dead against Moscow. I like some of Lev’s