Welcome back boys!!
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The big one is Saturday. A year’s worth of work went into this game for these two teams, and it’s the culmination of years of recruitment, training sessions and meetings. It’s wild to think this will be the last game for either team in its current state. Players will come and go. The manager(s) might even change. What will remain forever is the big ass trophy you get for winning this competition.
Before we get into thoughts on how the game will play out or who we like from a betting or DFS perspective, let’s head to the desert.
- Tottenham +340 | 2.5 (-130o/+110u)
- Liverpool -115
- Tie +260
We know both of these teams so well from seeing them play all season in the English Premier League. I cannot wait for this game. It does feel a little weird seeing Tottenham’s name listed in the game. It feels like City, or Barca, or anyone other than fucking Tottenham should be playing on Saturday, but here we are!
Honestly, I think we see goals in this game but not until later in the first half/second half.
What we saw on Wednesday were two EPL teams that looked rusty. They looked nervous. They also looked unsure of themselves, because neither has the talent of a Liverpool.
Here is the big question for me…..do you start Harry Kane? They’ve made it here without him. He hasn’t played since God knows when. You wanna talk about rust? Do you stick with what’s worked? The big thing for me is a 75% Harry Kane is still better than a 100% Llorente. Think about Kante on Wednesday…if he can give it a go, you do it.
Now, will that hamper the production of others like Lucas Moura the savior and Son Heung-Min? I’m of the belief he helps this team. More quality helps quality, right?
In saying all that, whether Kane plays or not, give me Liverpool. They have the top-3 players in the game and arguably seven of the top-10. They have the talent. They have the momentum. They have the experience of being in this game last year. Spurs shouldn’t even be here if Ajax weren’t so naivete. Oh shit…Liverpool shouldn’t be here either if Barca could finish a single chance or not fall asleep on a corner kick.
Both these teams will count themselves lucky and will have the trophy in their sites. From a betting perspective, I’m taking Liverpool and eating the juice. If this game were played in London, I may hesitate. In Madrid? Give me all the Liverpool. I also mentioned I do think there will be goals in this game. I’m taking the over as well.
Call me a square if you want, but I believe this game is straight forward. Liverpool to win 3-1.
Salah – LIV – $11.7k
He’s been outshined by Mane the second half of the season, and I’m hoping that keep his ownership lower. Danny Rose (or Davies) isn’t exactly scaring me to death with regards to the matchup. Klopp may mess around and even run Salah through the middle a bit if things get tense. Top Play of the Slate
Mane – LIV – $11.3k
He destroyed Bayern. He destroyed Porto. He really hasn’t done much against Tottenham in their two matchups this year. These are always cagey affairs, and while he’s certainly capable of putting in a shift, I’m going to be fading Mane at this price. I think he’ll be one of the top owned players on Saturday.
Kane – TOT – $10.9k
I’m 100% fading Kane on my main lineup. My main usually goes in double up tourneys as well. I think he starts, but I can’t see him really producing in this game. VVD is a monster, and Matip has been a great partner all year. I think TOT score, and if it’s through a PK, then it will be Kane. But I can’t see him beating those two from open play. FADE. Now, I will have Kane on one of my three LUs, because it’s an SD slate and anything is possible.
Firmino – LIV – $10.3k
IF HE STARTS, he tends to do damage against TOT. It makes no sense, but he seems to have their number. I tend to think Klopp sticks with Origi and has the huge weapon on the bench if need be. Against teams with a pulse (Bayern, Napoli, PSG), he was completely absent from a DFS perspective. He scored against Porto, but everyone did! FADE
Eriksen – TOT – $10.6k
He’ll make my cash roster for sure. He strikes me as a play that will look awful for 60 minutes, and then when Tottenham are chasing the game, he’ll put eight crosses in the box and pick up an assist on a set piece, and we are counting our money. Undecided if he’ll make my top GPP LU at the moment, but he’s in the pool for sure. As always, capable of scoring from open play as well. Kane back does slightly downgrade his direct free kick equity.
Heung-Min – TOT – $9.9k
It’s so weird, but he’s not as impactful when Kane starts. Those are the facts. Now, even saying that he can still do the job and hit value. I think both teams will struggle to score through the middle and will be focusing on the wingers mostly. Son qualifies in that respect. He’s under $10k and is probably, for my money, the third-best attacking player in the game after Salah/Mane form a soccer perspective. Depending on team news, I, and most, will have more Moura, but he’s in play.
Moura – TOT – $9.5k
There are people saying he won’t start. I simply can’t imagine this will be the case. The argument would be Eriksen playing forward with Winks/Sissoko/Alli in the midfield. Nah, mate. Not for me. In my scenario, they have a midfield 3 of Sissoko, Eriksen, Alli with Moura/Son on the wings and Kane up top. In THAT scenario, I like the Moura’s pace to cause that back line problems. We know he’s in blistering form. It’s not much savings, but for the $400 less and same upside, I’ll take Lucas Moura over Son. Both with no Eriksen is not out of the question. A late Lamela sub would likely be for Alli. Llorente would be more of the worry.
Milner – LIV – $9.2k
I think he has to be in consideration from a cash perspective, but there is a scenario where he does not start. Personally, I think Klopp relies on his experience in a game like this, but a midfield of Fabinho/Henderson/Wijnaldum does allow the front 3 to go express themselves. If he starts, he will pick up points with tackles, interceptions, occasional free kick and a shot or two. More cash than GPP for me, especially for the price.
NO INTEREST IN LLORENTE, SHAQIRI
Alli – TOT – $8.5k
I’ll keep this short. You can roster him if you want to do so. I won’t be. He had two assists against Ajax. Yippie. He scored goals last year. Yippie. Just not in the form I want to invest in at the moment.
Alexander-Arnold – LIV – $8.1k
This is a play I love. He’s in a bit of an odd price range, but I’ll be putting him in every lineup I build. Set pieces. Crosses. Assists. Direct free kicks. What’s not to love?
Origi – LIV – $7.8k
On the odd chance that he starts, I’ll have some shares in GPP. I like his form, and while he’s not the best player technically, his instincts in the box are on point at the moment. They say form is temporary and class is permanent. 100% agree, but his form is fantastic and I’ll ride the hot hand if he gets the nod.
Trippier – TOT – $7.6k
I think pairing TAA and him together will be popular. Neither really break the bank, and both have upside with a good floor. Can’t argue with the play. I honestly can’t argue with him being the most expensive TOT player on your team, based on some builds I have at the moment.
Lamela – TOT – $7.4k
Likely off the bench so a no play.
Sturridge = NO
Henderson – LIV – $7k
He is certainly a candidate for 2x in this game. He has been getting forward MORE than he usually did under Klopp, thanks to the presence of Fabinho. Assuming they start together, I get this play if you are looking in this range. Not a player to shove in your lineup.
Robertson – LIV – $6.9k
To be honest, I’m not really on Robertson. He does more of his damage in the EPL than the UCL. TAA gets forward so much, and it’s usually at the expense of the defender on the weak side, which happens to be Robertson. He also will likely have Lucas Moura to deal with, which could pin him deep. FADE
Rose – TOT – $6.8k
He’ll have Salah to deal with and is questionable, though likely, to play. He does get forward a bit, but this pricing is in no man’s land. I don’t know that I’ll have a single share of Rose.
Keita – LIV = OUT
Fabinho – LIV – $6.6k
FADE. Two shots in 10 appearances. Will get tackles/interceptions, but I can’t even see him getting to 2x. Yellow card risk as well.
Alisson – LIV – $6.5k
Wait for it…I think Alisson is VIABLE in this game. Tottenham have a ton of players who take shots from distance. Kane does. Eriksen does. Alli does. These are usually harmless and easy save opportunities for the opposing GK. Knowing I like LIV to win the game as well, there is a case to be made that Alisson could get to 3x.
Van Dijk – LIV – $6.3k
I would have loved him at $5.3k, but we’ll make it work. He’s a monster on set pieces. I think this matchup is “easier” than the Barca attack he faced last round from a defensive point of view. He doesn’t have a floor so it’s tough to justify in cash, but his upside is massive, knowing goals from defenders are worth considerably more than forwards.
Janssen = NO
Aurier – TOT – $6.1k
Not likely to start so not in consideration. If he does, I won’t be playing him.
Sissoko – TOT – $6k
Great player. Maybe the most improved player in Europe. Not a great DFS player.
Wijnaldum – LIV – $5.9k
You guys know I was ALL over him before the last game with Barcelona. In this midfield 3, he gets forward the most and has the ability to do damage in the final third. Of course, he came on and scored two goals, inspiring a comeback for the ages. Assuming it’s the midfield 3 we discussed above, I love this price range for Wijnaldum. Unfortunately, others will as well after seeing his game log from last game.
Lloris – TOT – $5.4k
Can’t do it. The only reason to roster Lloris is to be contrarian, and contrarian to be contrarian rarely works out. I believe Liverpool score 2+ goals so Lloris would need 7+ saves to get near value. Could happen. Unlikely.
Llalan/Matip/Oxlade-Chamberlain = No Interest
Vertonghen – TOT – $5.1k
We are starting to get into the extreme value category, so you have to decide if you are looking for upside or “floor” at this range. Vertonghen’s floor is 0. There are times late in games where he is switched out to LB or LWB to get forward. He also gets forward on set pieces. He can produce in the final third. I’m likely going even lower than this price.
Wanyama – TOT = No interest
Alderweireld – TOT – $4.8k
Why not? Double-digits in five of his last six games; that gets us to 2x and frees up salary. Could be the popular punt. I like he has a shot in five of his last six games as well. Upside may be limited but provides a little cushion for pricing.
Davies – TOT – $4.4k
Should Davies start, he will be very popular. This is too cheap for a FB on either team.
Dier – TOT – Unlikely to start, but if he does, not much interest. Just floats in the middle of the field. OK on sets. Doesn’t add much to the attack. Yellow card risk.
Winks – TOT – Small chance he starts. If he does, I’m not on him.
Gomez – LIV – $3.9k
I can’t imagine he starts, BUT if he does, I’m fine rostering him at either CB or certainly at RB simply due to his price.
Sanchez – TOT – $3.7k
Just literally super cheap. Not a ton of reason to play him other than that. If you love your build and have less than $4k, he’s your best (only) bet, assuming no Gomez.
- LIV to win -115
- LIV/TOT OVER 2.5 -130
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