Back of the Net: UCL DFS Preview – 3/17

When you see a total of 2…..TWO….2 in a UCL second leg, it makes your eyes widen. However, consider the teams involved. Atletico are notoriously stingy defensively. Chelsea are a massive possession-based team but still struggling to create chances. Chelsea also lack the players with the finishing ability to really have a go off. With that in mind, let’s review leg one and see how this match plays out.  

You can tell by the heat map that Chelsea were on the front foot for the majority of the match. It was alarmingly boring in the first half, with Atletico basically defending for 45 minutes. The second half was a bit of a different story, especially after Chelsea scored the goal and Atletico had to chase the game a bit. I do think this is an important development, and I’ll explain why. 

Atletico Madrid have talent. Marcos Llorente is extremely talented. Saul Niguez is extremely talented. Correa, Lemar, Carrasco are all very, very good players. Luis Suarez is an all-time #9 and competitor. Joao Felix divides opinion, but even the biggest critic would admit that he has World Class potential if he’s not there already. The manager decides the style of play, and Simeone insists on defensive stability. They have the players to attack. They also have the experience in this spot.  

In 15/16, they lost the first leg 2-1 to Barca and won the second 2-0. In 16/17, they lost the first leg to Real Madrid 3-0 and won the second 2-1. They didn’t advance, but the attacking intent was there, and they won the match. Now, both of those teams are also in La Liga, and they are extremely familiar with each other, but the point remains. If they need to attack, they can.  

In this match, the deficit is one. If Atletico score, the away goal is neutralized, and it’s game on. I don’t expect them to be full-on attacking with massive numbers from the first whistle, but they’d do well to leave their bunker before Chelsea finds the back of the net themselves. Chelsea doesn’t know another way to play. They need the ball; they need possession.  

This seems silly to say because you can literally say this for every single game, but the first goal is massive. If Chelsea score, it’s guns blazing for Atletico. If Atletico score, the game likely settles into a stalemate. I get the total because it’s super game flow specific, but I can’t see this game ending 1-0 in either direction. With that said, the OVER 2 is the play. I believe, at worst, you tie and get your cash back.  

We’ll see!

Full credit to Lazio for trying to battle back. It’s not easy being behind 2-0 to the European Champions after 24 minutes. 3-0 before halftime, and it sure looked like the tie was done. The fourth right after the half was officially tie done. That is what makes the rest of the second half an issue for me in this match. Did Bayern completely take the foot of the pedal, and if so, how much does that contribute to Lazio working their way into the game?

Lazio had more shots. They took more corners. They conceded an own goal. Surely, they create some sort of spin zone to make themselves feel like they were in the game and can work themselves back into this thing with a good start.  

I mean, good luck with that. Bayern’s team news will be the lynchpin of the match. This is the Champions League. There is no room to take it easy. I do expect a strong side, and of the two matches, surely this one will eclipse the other with the goal total.