Welcome to the NFL DFS WR Coach, where we identify the best wide receivers for our lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel!
It’s important to note this article is posted mid-week, so injuries and other news can change our reads as we get closer to Sunday.
Welcome back! Hopefully you had a profitable week of DFS and are ready to continue building that bank roll here in Week 13. Early lineup builds make this one an interesting week at the receiver position with a ton of different options to choose from. Narrowing down our wide receiver play pool is going to be paramount to success this week. Let’s take a look around the league at which wide receivers we should be targeting in DFS this week on the main slate.
Tyreek Hill vs OAK ($8,900 DK & $8,300 FD)
Hill has been a full participant in practices this week, putting the hamstring injury concerns in the rearview mirror for us. Instead, he’s a near priority play this week given the upcoming matchup with Oakland. The Raiders have been particularly susceptible to deep passes this season. They’ve allowed the most pass plays of 20+ yards and the second-most passing touchdowns of 20+ yards. Patrick Mahomes sports a top-5 rate in deep attempts (20+) per game (14.9%) and leads the league in passing touchdowns in this category. Hill has been sporting a near-even split in terms of routes from the slot and the perimeter this season. He should have no trouble putting up big numbers against the Raiders’ 30th-ranked Pass DVOA defense. Kansas City leads the slate with their 30.5-point implied team total with Vegas projecting plenty of scoring in this matchup.
Cooper Kupp vs AZ ($7,100 DK & $7,800 FD)
It’s tough to endorse the Rams passing attack given the last few performances we’ve seen from Jared Goff, but a matchup against Arizona’s secondary could be a get-right spot for them. The primary reason for this assertion is the plus matchup that Goff’s primary receiver, Cooper Kupp (25% target share), has in the slot. The Cardinals are giving up the second-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers this season. Slot corner Tramaine Brock is giving up a 122.1 QB Rating when targeted against and has allowed three touchdowns in his coverage (zero INTs) in nine game games played. With a healthy Brandin Cooks back in the fold to occupy Patrick Peterson (shadow coverage) and stretch the defense vertically, I like going back to Kupp after he’s burned many DFS players the past three weeks.
Davante Adams vs NYG ($7,000 DK & $8,000 FD)
Spending up at the receiver position could be a common thread among high-scoring DFS squads this week as there are plenty of options to choose from in plus situations. The Giants possess arguably the worst starting trio of corners in Janoris Jenkins, DeAndre Baker, and Corey Ballentine. All three fall inside the top-15 in most fantasy points allowed per route covered. Jenkins has been wildly inconsistent, Baker is PFF’s second-worst graded cornerback (120-of-121 qualifying) and Ballentine is allowing a 124.5 QB Rating when targeted this season. No matter where Adams lines up this week, he’s in for a smash spot. This matchup provides an ideal get-right spot for the Packers passing attack as they try to lock up a top seed in the NFC. They should find success here and it likely will be due to Adams capitalizing on his 10+ targets against a porous secondary.
DJ Chark vs TB ($6,600 DK & $6,900 FD)
Chark draws a terrific matchup this week against the Bucs secondary. Running just shy of 80% of his routes on the outside, Chark should see a lot of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean on the perimeter. Davis has allowed five touchdowns against him in coverage this season and Dean — who has played just five games — is being targeted once every 4.2 coverage snaps (a top-3 rate). Over the last four weeks, the Bucs have given up the second-most fantasy points to perimeter wideouts. In the three games that Nick Foles has started, Chark has commanded a 20% target share (8.3 tgts/game), possesses 37% of the team’s Air Yards, and has led the squad with three receiving touchdowns. Chark disappointed somewhat last week but don’t be afraid to go back to the well here in a pristine matchup — especially given his price on FD.
The Bucs receiving duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is always in play — especially in tournaments. Roll the dice or pick your favorite one because matchup analysis has been fruitless to this point in selecting the correct one that goes off. Both receivers are going to be in my player pool this week.
D.J. Moore vs WAS ($6,800 DK & $6,800 FD)
When a player is priced identically on DK/FD, he’s an absolute value play on the FD side. Moore enters that discussion this week as a priced-up option on DK but seemingly forgotten about lock-play on FD. Moore leads all wideouts in receiving yardage over the past month and has reached the century mark in 3-of-4. If we scale back slightly further, Moore has been averaging 10.7 targets over his past six games with an average receiving stat line of 7.0-92.2-0.3 during this span. Moore runs over 80% of his routes on the outside setting him up for a plus matchup this week against Josh Norman and Quinton Dunbar. Norman was nearly a healthy scratch last week before some last-minute lineup manipulation by the coaching staff. He’s been a liability in coverage this season giving up a 133.1 QB Rating when targeted and ties for a league-leading seven touchdowns allowed. He is PFF’s No. 114 graded CB. Dunbar has played far better — four INTs, 44.9 QB Rating when targeted — but it will only take one or two routes against Norman for Moore to come up with a big play.
DeVante Parker vs PHI ($5,700 DK & $6,000 FD)
Since Preston Williams’ Week 9 injury, Parker has seen double-digit targets in every outing and posted receiving stat lines of 5-69-0, 7-135-0, and 6-91-0. The volume has been there, but the touchdowns have been lacking. A matchup on the outside against the Eagles corners — who are giving up the third-most fantasy points to perimeter wideouts (Parker 76% outside) — could be the right matchup for some touchdown regression. Parker’s pricing on both sites feels far too low for a player with his consistent target floor of 10+ targets.
Jamison Crowder vs CIN ($5,600 DK & $6,300 FD)
The Jets blew the doors off the Raiders last week in an odd 34-3 breakout performance that was never close. Crowder wasn’t really utilized in that game, but prior to that, had seen 8.4 targets per game in those that Sam Darnold started. The Jets’ easy schedule to the end of the year continues this week as they travel to Cincinnati in Week 13. The Bengals are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers this season and Darnold has eyes for Crowder, targeting him a team-high 23% in the eight games Darnold has played. Priced down $600 from last week on DK, he’s a solid cash option that won’t break the bank.
Robert Woods vs AZ ($5,500 DK & $7,100 FD)
Since the team’s Week 9 bye, Woods quietly ranks 8th in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Ranking) among all receivers. Yes, part of that has to do with Cooks’ absence, but his combination of target share (24%) and Air Yards (45%) makes him an appealing value receiver play given his matchup against rookie corner Byron Murphy. Murphy ties for the league lead in touchdowns given up in coverage (7) and is being targeted at the highest rate among Arizona’s starting corners — once every 6.8 snaps in coverage. He’s PFF’s No. 103 graded corner so far this season. Woods has gone 9-97-0 and 7-95-0 in his last two games and makes for a solid contrarian receiving option for tournaments given all the other receivers near his price point that the masses will gravitate towards. He’s especially a solid value play on DK.
Tyler Boyd vs NYJ ($5,500 DK & $6,000 FD)
I’m a bit apprehensive to write Boyd’s name here, but targeting the Jets secondary has been a profitable move for much of the season outside Oakland’s disaster of a performance last week. Andy Dalton returns in this home matchup and takes on the struggling pass funnel defense of New York (17th Pass DVOA defense, 2nd Rush DVOA defense). Boyd was seeing high target volume while Dalton was under center earlier this year, sporting a 25% target share and a rather high target floor. Another feather in the cap of Boyd is that the Jets are giving up the second-most fantasy points to receivers on short passes, per PFF’s Scott Barrett. Boyd’s low aDOT (7.1 yards) falls right into that category and should help Dalton get back into a rhythm in his first game back. The ceiling is absolutely fair to question given his absurdly low touchdown rate, but the high target volume against a pass defense that has been struggling mightily at cornerback mitigates those concerns for cash.
Alshon Jeffery vs MIA ($5,100 DK & $6,500 FD)
There’s some moving pieces here to this recommendation, but if things fall right, Jeffery could be a potential top-5 fantasy play this week against the Dolphins. Jeffery was elevated to a full participant in practice on Friday. The key thing to monitor is the health of tight end Zach Ertz, who did not participate in practice Wednesday and Thursday, but did log a limited session on Friday. Ertz possesses a 25% target share in addition to 25% of the team’s Air Yards. Only the Ravens have targeted the tight end position more frequently than Carson Wentz this season. If Ertz were to miss this game, it opens additional volume for Jeffery to inherit as he’s seen 24% of the team’s targets when active. Miami ranks 32nd in Pass DVOA and has given up the eighth-most fantasy points to perimeter wideouts this season. With few legitimate passing options for Wentz to throw to, we could see a potential ceiling game here for Jeffery if the cards fall right.
Dede Westbrook vs TB ($5,000 DK & $5,700 FD)
Chark was mentioned above as drawing a fantastic perimeter matchup against the Buccaneers’ secondary, but Westbrook also draws a very enticing matchup in the slot against Sean Murphy-Bunting. Murphy-Bunting has played at least 60 snaps in each of the past four weeks after getting elevated to starting slot corner, and has given up a touchdown in 3-of-4. As such, he’s giving up the most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers over the past month. Westbrook (86% slot) should thrive here in this matchup. He’s averaging just 7.0 targets/game with Foles under center, but the two had some tremendous preseason rapport. Given the Bucs’ success in stopping the run, perhaps we see a ceiling day from Foles here given the plus matchups his receivers find themselves in.
Sterling Shepard vs GB ($4,900 DK & $5,900 FD)
The Giants have already ruled out Golden Tate making Shepard a near-lock button play for me for DK cash games at this price point. He saw nine targets and a rush attempt last week in his return from injury and draws a plus matchup against the Packers’ corners at home this week. Tate’s absence means we’ll likely see Shepard move all over the formation this week, but primarily work out of the slot. Green Bay slot corner Tramon Williams has fared well per PFF’s metrics, but has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to slot receivers over the Packers’ last eight games. The Giants have also ruled out Evan Engram, letting us anticipate even more target volume in Shepard’s direction as Daniel Jones relies on shorter passes as a crutch (7.9 aDOT). While the fantasy production has been lacking for Shepard, the target volume remains consistent. That’s our primary focus here. Shepard’s price puts him in play for cash consideration and he makes for a nice bring-back option if stacking Packers.