This is a 110 lap event…
*UPDATED – 6/23*
Toyota/Save Mart 350 DFS Breakdown!
- Sonoma Raceway
- Sunday 6/23/19 – 3:00 PM
- 2.53 mile Road Course
Last Race Notables: Martin Truex, Jr. won.
- Laps Led – Truex Jr.: 62, Harvick: 35
- Start/Finish – Bowyer 19/3, Kurt Busch 23/6, Jones 20/7, Almirola 24/8, Bowman 17/9, Hamlin 21/10, Buscher 25/12, A. Dillon 27/16, DiBenedetto 30/17, Klingerman 34/23
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led pts, and less fastest lap pts, making place finish and place differential pts a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
TOYOTA/SAVE MART 350 PICKS
Kyle Busch ($11,800) – Starting 7th. BEAST. Every week a threat to win and dominate!! Has won at Sonoma twice and has finished 5th, 5th, 7th and 1st in his last four here.
Kevin Harvick ($11,200) – Starting 23rd. Has a win here at Sonoma. Finished 2nd, 1st, 6th and 4th in his last four here. Still searching for his first W of the year. How long can you keep Harvick out of the winner’s circle?
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,800) – Starting 8th. Four top 10’s, three top 5’s and two wins here. Won last year. Fastest in practice 1. Will be a pick to win this weekend.
Kurt Busch ($9,700) – Starting 16th. 10 top 10’s, seven top 5’s and a win here at Sonoma. 6th, 7th, 10th and 2nd in his last four here.
Clint Bowyer ($9,300) – Starting 14th. Chalk of the weekend. Bowyer has 10 top 10’s, eight top 5’s and a win here at Sonoma in 13 races. Finished 3rd, 2nd, 40th and 3rd in his last four here. Safe bet this weekend.
Denny Hamlin ($9,100) – Starting 6th. Five top 10’s, three top 5’s. Hamlin finished 10th, 4th and 2nd in his last three at Sonoma. Been a bit all over the place this year.
Erik Jones ($8,100) – Starting 32nd. Gotta love Jones. So much upside starting in 32nd. Should be chalk, but good chalk. Finished 7th and 25th in his only two here at Sonoma.
Jimmie Johnson ($8,300) – Starting 11th. Nice cash game play here. Don’t really like too many others in this mid-tier range. JJ has nine top 10’s, four top 5’s and a win here at Sonoma with a nice ave finish of 12.4.
Ryan Newman ($7,300) – Starting 21st. Seven top 10’s, two top 5’s and numerous finishes in the teens at Sonoma. Newman should be a nice, safe option this weekend.
Matt DiBenedetto ($6,500) – Starting 19th. Started 30th, finished 17th last year. Can drive the road course, and with some better equipment this year, possibly another good finish in the teens.
Alex Bowman ($7,500) – Starting 12th. Quick in practice. Finished 9th here last year. Having a great year. Riding the Bowman train.
Parker Kligerman ($5,500) – Starting 29th. Here is my dart. Finished 23rd here last year. 6th fastest in the 2nd practice. That is enough for me at this price.
TOYOTA/SAVE MART 350 PICKS TO WIN
- Kyle Busch
- Clint Bowyer
- Martin Truex, Jr.
TOYOTA/SAVE MART 350 PROP BETS
- Bowyer over Truex, Jr
- Kyle Busch over Elliott
- Kurt Busch over Elliott
- Elliott over Logano
- Kurt Busch over Logano
- Johnson over Blaney
- Johnson over Suarez
- Suarez over Blaney
- Newman over Menard
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.