Todd Cordell has you covered for tonight’s NHL DFS GPP’s with his top stacks, goalies, and value plays.
Todd’s High-Key Stacks
COL1: Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen
Possible add-on: Cale Makar
This line is generating ~76 attempts, 41 chances, and 4.04 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5v5. They’re borderline unstoppable at even-strength and they’re fully correlated on a lethal power play unit. COL1 is in play every night but especially so against a San Jose team that ranks 29th in expected goals against/60.
TOR1: Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Possible add-on: Morgan Rielly
Dating back to the beginning of last season, the Leafs have averaged nearly 37 scoring chances per 60 with this line. They create a lot of good looks and certainly have the talent to take advantage. They should see a lot of Connor McDavid at 5v5. While McDavid’s defensive numbers are pretty solid in the early going, he is generally somebody who creates a ton offensively and gives a lot back (last season he ranked last among all Oilers regulars in chances against/60).
Todd’s Mid-Key Stacks
PHI1: Travis Konecny – Nolan Patrick – Claude Giroux
Possible add-on: Shayne Gostisbehere or Travis Sanheim (PP2 with Konecny/Patrick)
New Jersey quietly ranks dead last in high danger chances against/60 and they’re still without Mackenzie Blackwood. They can be had defensively; as we saw last time out (PHI scored 5 times and had 20 Grade A chances). This line doesn’t have sexy gamelogs but they’re all talented players and, going back a couple seasons, they’ve scored four goals in less than 60 minutes together. Small sample size, I know, but encouraging nonetheless. I like their chances of doing damage against this struggling New Jersey defense.
NYI1: Anders Lee – Mathew Barzal – Jordan Eberle
Possible add-on: Ryan Pulock or Noah Dobson
This line is averaging 3.75 expected goals per 60 at 5v5. They’re generating a lot of good looks. They are fully correlated on the top power play unit, and they’re taking on a Washington team that is missing a ton of bodies (Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Orlov, Samsonov, Eller, etc.). It’s also worth noting Vitik Vanecek, while off to a strong start, is giving up rebounds on a higher percentage of his saves than every other starter.
CGY1: Matthew Tkachuk – Elias Lindholm – Andrew Mangiapane
Possible add-on: Mark Giordano
The Flames are controlling 65% of the shot attempts and 71% of the expected goals with Tkachuk-Lindholm on the ice. Those numbers actually jump when Mangiapane is by their side. They are flat-out steamrolling teams at 5v5 right now. The Johnny Gaudreau line drew the opponent’s best in Calgary’s first road game and I’m hoping the same holds true again here. Even if CGY1 sees a lot of the Brendan Gallagher line, I think a case can be made for them based on a) how much they’re generating at 5v5 and; b) the kind of ownership (very, very low) they’re going to carry.
Todd’s Low-Key Stacks
OTT3: Nick Paul – Colin White – Evgenii Dadonov
Possible add-on: no correlation play
Nobody wants to touch Ottawa right now. I get it; they’re very bad. But this line posted a 67 xGF% in their debut together last night while creating more chances than every other Senators line. Vancouver is a very bad defensive team – they rank dead last in expected goals against/60 – and Braden Holtby was one of the NHL’s worst goaltenders last season. I think OTT3 has some upside and they’re dirt cheap.
COL2: Brandon Saad – Nazem Kadri – Andre Burakovsky
Possible add-on: Devon Toews or Sam Girard (PP2 with Saad/Burakovsky)
We’re still dealing with small sample sizes but this line leads Colorado with a 66.7 xGF% at 5v5. They’ve been dominant. They all see power play time, they’re all affordable, and it is hard to ask for a better matchup. If COL1 is *too* expensive, or not your favorite pay-up, you can feel good about getting a chunk of the offense with COL2.
I recommend correlating your stacks. If not, Philipp Grubauer, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Carter Hart are a few of my favorite plays.
Igor Shesterkin, Semyon Varlamov, and David Rittich are some cheaper more GPP-style goalies I have interest in.
Beyond guys mentioned in stacks above, here are some salary savers I like to fill out your lineups:
C – Logan Couture
C – Christian Dvorak
C – Max Domi
W – Chris Kreider
W – Alex Tuch
W – Verhaeghe/Duclair
W – Ryan Donato
D – Darnell Nurse
D – Justin Faulk
D – Erik Gudbranson
D – Ryan McDonagh
D – Bowen Byram
D – Dmitry Kulikov
As always, hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions about the slate.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell