Todd Cordell has you covered for tonight’s NHL DFS lineups with his top stacks, goalies, and cash plays.
- Nathan MacKinnon (COL)/Connor McDavid (EDM)
- David Pastrnak (BOS)
- Anthony Beauvillier (NYI)
- Connor Carrick (NJ)
- BONUS: Conor Garland (ARI)
GPP Stacks of the Night
BOS1: Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron – David Pastrnak
Possible add-on: Matt Grzelcyk
BOS1 is always cut and dry. They’re one of the most dominant lines in the NHL at 5v5, they’re fully correlated on the PP, and they’re matchup proof. The latter part isn’t really relevant tonight, though, because the Devils are not a good team and they’re starting a fringe NHL goaltender (Scott Wedgewood) who owns an .836 SV% over his last handful of appearances. NJ has played BOS pretty tight this season but this is the best version of BOS they’ve seen and I don’t think Wedgewood is good enough to mask any issues.
PIT1: Jake Guentzel – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust
Possible add-on: Kris Letang or Brian Dumoulin
PIT1 has been pretty quiet of late on the scoreboard – I mean, Sidney Crosby has one assist over his last four games – but this seems like a strong get right spot. Philadelphia struggles on the penalty kill (PIT1 fully correlates on the PP) and they rank dead last in team save percentage this season. PIT1 should be able to create plenty of opportunities, as usual, and converting on them shouldn’t be much of an issue against the Flyers’ goaltending.
EDM1: Leon Draisaitl – Connor McDavid – Kailer Yamamoto
Possible add-on: Tyson Barrie
This line will be popular and rightfully so. You’re getting a couple of Hart Trophy-caliber players with a highly skilled complementary piece (Yamamoto) who makes the line a lot more affordable. And, quite honestly, it’s hard to ask for a better matchup. Vancouver plays fast, they take a lot of penalties, and are a trainwreck defensively. No team has allowed shots, chances, or expected goals at a higher rate this season at 5v5.Also consider: COL1 (as always!). So many big lines in good spots tonight.
ARI1: Clayton Keller – Nick Schmaltz – Conor Garland**
Possible add-on: Jakob Chychrun
Still waiting on confirmation Garland is back but, if so, I’d assume he’ll take his old spot on L1. This trio has controlled more than 57% of the expected goals at 5v5 this season, which is very good, and they generally fully correlate on PP1. I think they could do some damage against a Kings team that is playing for nothing, especially with Jonathan Quick (-4.8 goals saved above expectation) expected between the pipes.
NYI1: Leo Komarov – Mathew Barzal – Jordan Eberle
Possible add-on: Noah Dobson
Mathew Barzal and Jordan Eberle have had their way with Buffalo this season. The Sabres’ defensive numbers are still in the tank – they rank 28th in xGA/60 over the last 10 – and now they’re giving Michael Houser his first career start. He turned pro ~nine years ago and has only played two games in the AHL(!) over the last handful of years. He’s been a full-time ECHLer. Komarov is a weird piece to attach (you can leave him off if you want) but, believe it or not, this trio has been on the ice for more than 4 NYI goals per 60 at 5v5. They’re getting it done.
Also consider: BOS2. Their underlyings are outstanding and they won’t carry as much ownership as BOS1. Good way to get exposure to a good matchup.
STL3: Mike Hoffman – Robert Thomas – Jordan Kyrou
Possible add-on: no preferred correlation play
We’re still dealing with very small sample sizes with this trio but they’re generating shots at a high clip and facing a team that ranks 24th in xGA/60 over the last 10. Anaheim will give up chances and STL3 has the talent to take advantage. I think there’s upside here and I don’t expect much ownership.
COL3: Andre Burakovsky – Tyson Jost – Valeri Nichushkin
Possible add-on: no preferred correlation play
This line isn’t *quite* as sexy as COL1 but they ran train on San Jose last matchup. In just over seven minutes of 5v5 ice as a trio, they generated 12 shot attempts and six scoring chances. Very encouraging numbers. San Jose is very shallow so I don’t see any reason why COL3 won’t be able to dictate the play at 5v5 once again. If you’re not playing COL1, this is a good way to get exposure to the powerhouse Avalanche while also saving money to afford an elite line from another team in a great spot.
Also consider: NYI3.
Cash: Semyon Varlamov, Philip Grubauer, Alex Ndeljkovic, Darcy Kuemper, Anton Khudobin.
As always, in GPP, I recommend correlating with your stacks. If not, I wouldn’t worry too much about using safer cash style guys tonight because there are so many games that ownership will be very spread out. I don’t think you have to go with a risky true GPP option on a slate where there are *checks notes* seven teams -180 or greater.
Cash, Cash, Cash
We’re doing 2-in-1 articles these days, so let’s dig into my favorite cash plays. Obviously, some good players and usable pieces won’t be listed – particularly on bigger slates – so don’t be alarmed if one or two of your guys aren’t mentioned. If you want clarification, feel free to reach out.
Now let’s dig into some of my favorites (sorted by DK price).
Auston Matthews (TOR) – Best goal scorer in the NHL right now and a shooting machine. Montreal isn’t a pushover but they’re really beat up.
Connor McDavid (EDM) – The NHL’s points leader, who shoots quite a bit, is squaring off against a high-event team that can’t defend. Sign me up.
Nathan MacKinnon (COL) – Put up a dud – in part due to missed shots after a fight – against SJ the other day but responded with a pair of points and nine shots. He should have his way.
Mathew Barzal (NYI) – Shot numbers aren’t high of late but he’s tied for 2nd on NYI in chances over the last 10 and has carved Buffalo up this season.
Tomas Hertl (SJ) – Colorado is really banged up on defense and Hertl is as likely as any Shark to take advantage. Solid peripheral floor as well.
Jack Hughes (NJ) – Generates shots like a 7K+ player, and has eight points in his last 10, yet his price continues to drop.
Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN) – Doesn’t shoot a ton but is Minnesota’s best high-danger chance generator and should get lots of run with so much riding on this game (Wild fighting for home ice).
Trevor Zegras (ANH) – Has five points, 16 shots, over his last five and is getting increased ice with the season lost and all about development.
Also consider: Alex Wennberg, Alex Texier.
David Pastrnak (BOS) – Has at least three shots on goal in seven straight and is facing a team that a) struggles to kill penalties and; b) is starting a bad netminder. Only issue with him is his ice could end up in the ~16 minute range if the game gets out of hand.
Mikko Rantanen (COL) – Has been a chance/shot generating machine the last month or so and San Jose’s goaltending situation is as bleak as almost anyone’s.
Kyle Connor (WPG) – Leads the Jets in chances – by 14 – over the last 20 and has points in six of eight vs Ottawa. Their pace, and transition style, bodes well for Connor’s game.
Bryan Rust (PIT) – Is averaging 4 SOG+BS per game over the last 10 and is one of Pittsburgh’s best offensive players. Figures to benefit from Philadelphia’s putrid goaltending.
Andrei Svechnikov (CAR) – Is Carolina’s best chance generator, has 10 points over his last 10, and should benefit from a high-paced matchup vs Chicago.
Jason Robertson (DAL) – Robertson is one of the most efficient 5v5 point producers in the NHL and he shoots the puck a ton. I don’t love the matchup but FLA is a little banged up and, honestly, Robertson has shown the ability to produce consistently vs anybody.
Brock Boeser (VAN) – Is shooting the puck a ton and they just won’t go for him (he’s shooting less than 4% over the last 10). So long as the chances continue to be there, it’s only a matter of time before regression hits.
Anthony Beauvillier (NYI) – has five goals in his last six and that’s no coincidence. His shot generation numbers are sky high right now. Personally, I enjoy playing high volume shooters vs bad goaltenders.
Also consider: Conor Garland (if he plays, he’s ~1K below where he should be and likely faces a washed up Jonathan Quick), Reilly Smith, Owen Tippett.
Jakob Chychrun (ARI) – My guy is averaging nearly 6 SOG+BS per over the last 10. He is the best goal scoring defenseman in the NHL, and a matchup with Quick definitely helps his chances of adding to his total.
Dougie Hamilton (CAR) – No defenseman shoots more and Chicago is a bad team that plays fast. Could be a ceiling game.
Thomas Chabot (OTT) – Averaging more than 27 minutes per night over the last 10. Playing so much that he doesn’t even need to be efficient to produce. I like him in this spot, especially with how poorly WPG’s been killing penalties.
Connor Murphy (CHI) – High volume shot blocker vs a team that generates shots at an absurd rate.
Erik Karlsson (SJ) – Don’t love the matchup but he’s been strong peripherally and is a fixture on PP1 now. There’s upside here.
Travis Hamonic (VAN) – High points per minute player consistently playing between 18-20. Been going to the well often and will continue to do so.
Brady Skjei (CAR) – Shoots every chance he gets and he should have plenty in this one. Carolina will have all of the puck.
Connor Carrick (NJ) – Has played at least 19 minutes in five straight. BOS should dominate tonight at 5v5, which gives Carrick plenty of chances to pile up blocks and hit the bonus.
As always, hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions about the slate.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com and MoneyPuck.com
Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell