Todd Cordell has you covered for tonight’s NHL DFS lineups with his top stacks, goalies, and cash plays.
Core Four
- Auston Matthews (TOR)
- Eric Staal (MON)
- Kyle Connor (WPG)
- Michael Stone (CGY)
GPP Stacks of the Night
High-Key Stacks
BOS1: Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron – Craig Smith
Possible add-on: Matt Grzelcyk
BOS1 doesn’t have the same flare to it without David Pastrnak but, honestly, the results are still very much elite. The sample size is small but in ~30 minutes together they’ve controlled 70% of the shots, nearly 70% of the expected goals, and out-scored opponents 5-1. Marchand and Bergeron have long made up one of the best duos in the NHL and Smith is an efficient volume shooter who helps make this stack a lot more affordable. I like them to do some damage against a Flyers team that has been getting catastrophically bad goaltending all season long.
WPG1: Kyle Connor – Mark Scheifele – Nik Ehlers
Possible add-on: Josh Morrissey
Ottawa has picked up at least a point in seven of their last 10 games but don’t let that fool you. They’re still not playing well; especially defensively. They rank 29th in attempts against/60 and 28th in expected goals against/60 over the last 10 games. The shot volume and quality is there, which isn’t exactly good news because they’re rotating between their 4th and 5th string goaltenders (Matt Murray, Marcus Hogberg, and Joey D’Accord are all injured). They’re expensive, but you’re getting Winnipeg’s three best offensive players at home in the juiciest matchup they can get in the North Division.
Also consider: COL1. I don’t love the matchup in terms of hitting their ceiling but this line is so damn good and I don’t think they’ll carry crazy ownership with TOR1, EDM1, BOS1, etc. all on the slate.
Mid-Key Stacks
MTL2: Jonathan Drouin – Eric Staal – Tyler Toffoli
Possible add-on: Shea Weber
Eric Staal is not what he once was but he’s still a pretty good offensive player and, fresh out of quarantine, he’s min priced on DK. Tonight he’ll center Drouin and Toffoli, who have a remarkably high 64 CF% together this season, at even-strength. Oh, and they’re fully correlated on Montreal’s top power play unit. Edmonton is a fast-paced team with mediocre goaltending and they’re as shallow as a puddle. This line should see very little of Connor McDavid’s line, which means they can focus more on offense than defense. I really like them in this spot.
CGY1: Matthew Tkachuk – Elias Lindholm – Dillon Dube
Possible add-on: Mark Giordano
I probably need my mouth washed out for saying anything positive about any Calgary Flames right now but here we go. This line is pretty good. They’ve averaged more than 4 goals per 60 at 5v5 this season and are the only Flames trio that’s been able to find the back of the net with any regularity. Tkachuk and Lindholm correlate on the top power play, too, and they’re dirt cheap against a Toronto team that is struggling on the PK of late. I understand if you don’t want to play Flames right now. But nobody else does, either, so this could be a good way to get some leverage over the field. They’re a pretty good trio, they’ll get a solid dose of ice, and they’re going to be low owned.
Also consider: VGK2 (Marchessault – Karlsson – Smith).
Low-Key Stacks
LAK3: Andreas Athanasiou – Jaret Anderson-Dolan – Adrian Kempe
Possible add-on: Sean Walker
This line is new to the scene but the early returns have been extremely encouraging. They’re generating nearly 3.5 xG per 60, which is elite. Will they sustain that level of chance generation? Perhaps not, but this line features three talented offensive players and they get to square off against the opposing team’s depth on a nightly basis. The Coyotes rank near the bottom of the league in chance suppression over the last 10 games, they played last night, and – surprise!! – they’re another team rocking with their 3rd string goaltender right now.
COL3: Valeri Nichushkin – Tyson Jost – Joonas Donskoi
Possible add-on: no preferred correlation play
I’m not writing this line up because they’ve scored a bunch of late. I’m writing this line up because they *deserved* all the goals they’ve scored of late. They’re generating 78 attempts and 3.6 expected goals per 60. For perspective of how – pardon my french – f**king bonkers that is, COL1 is generating 73 attempts and 3.2 expected goals per 60. Now, obviously COL1 has more talent to actually capitalize on the chances they create. But COL3 is legitimately generating opportunities at a higher rate. They won’t see MIN’s matchup guys, either.
Goaltenders
I recommend correlating your stacks in GPPs. If not, Cal Petersen and Jordan Binnington (gulp) are a couple GPP options worth considering.
For cash? Connor Hellebuyck, Phillip Grubauer, and Cal Petersen are my favorite plays.
Cash, Cash, Cash
We’re doing 2-in-1 articles these days, so let’s dig into my favorite cash plays. Obviously, some good players and usable pieces won’t be listed – particularly on bigger slates – so don’t be alarmed if one or two of your guys aren’t mentioned. If you want clarification, feel free to reach out.
Now let’s dig into some of my favorites (sorted by DK price).
Centers
Auston Matthews (TOR) – leads the NHL in high-danger chances over the last 10 and is arguably the best finisher in the league.
Nathan MacKinnon (COL) – The Wild have given up shots/chances at a much higher clip of late and MacK had multiple 3point games against them last time they met.
Mark Scheifele (WPG) – averages more than a PPG on home soil, is solid peripherally, and has a strong matchup.
John Tavares (TOR) – 2nd in the NHL in HD chances over the last 10 and won’t see Calgary’s matchup guys.
Claude Giroux (PHI) – has been shooting a lot of late and his ice is trending upwards as PHI tries to get out of their funk.
Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN) – Minnesota’s leading chance generator is strong peripherally and back on a line with Kirill the Thrill.
Josh Norris (OTT) – L1 center with Brady Tkachuk in a high-paced matchup.
Tyson Jost (COL) – Averaging more than 3SOG+BS per over the last 10. Cheap, reliable production.
Eric Staal (MON) – PP1 and centering two of Montreal’s best wingers at the min price.
Wingers
David Pastrnak (BOS) – Volume shooter vs a team that can’t get a save. Sign me up.
Kyle Connor (WPG) – Nobody has more scoring chances over the last 10 games and he’s not going to get a better matchup.
Gabriel Landeskog (COL) – Continues to pile up the points and chances yet his price lags well behind MacKinnon and Rantanen.
Vladimir Tarasenko (STL) – Averaging more than 10DK points per game despite shooting 3%. Regression is coming sooner than later.
Conor Garland (ARI) – Been shooting a ton of late and LA’s defensive metrics are trending downwards in a hurry.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM) – If you want Oilers exposure without a ton of risk, this is your guy. L1, PP1, and you don’t have to break the bank to get him in a pretty tough matchup.
Jaden Schwartz (STL) – Chances and peripherals are there. Production is not. That’ll change given how talented he is/how much ice he sees.
Jake DeBrusk (BOS) – Multiple shots in seven of the last 10 and seeing PP time in his return to the lineup. Think he’s ~1K too cheap.
Nick Paul (OTT) – So long as he’s in the top-6 I’m about him. Not afraid to shoot the puck.
Defense
Alex Pietrangelo (VGK) – Plays a ton of minutes and offers you an insanely high peripheral floor. Facing his former team if you’re into narratives.
Darnell Nurse (EDM) – Shoots the puck a lot and is one of the game’s better shot blockers, which matters when facing a team like Montreal that generates shots at a high rate.
Shea Weber (MON) – Shoots a lot, is on PP1 in a good spot, and has been a little more productive on home soil this season.
Josh Morrissey (WPG) – Pace-up spot and plays PP1 vs an undisciplined team.
Justin Faulk (STL) – Plays a lot, shoots a lot, and has a higher floor/ceiling than a lot of guys in his price range.
Matt Dumba (MIN) – This guy was 5K+ a few weeks ago. Not the best matchup but he’s one of Minnesota’s better chance generators and he could stumble his way into a few BS against COL.
Noah Hanifin (CGY) – Leads Calgary players in shot attempts since Darryl Sutter took over and is seeing 20+ minutes every night.
Michael Stone (CGY) – Averaging four SOG+BS per game and is dirt cheap.
As always, hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions about the slate.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
