If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) $800K Resurgence: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP – $10 entry; $200,000 to 1st,$100,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $400K Club Twirl: 150 entry max – $44 entry; $100,000 to 1st, $40,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $50K Flop Shot (Single Entry): $15 entry; $5,000 to 1st, $3,000 to 2nd
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK 3-max contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $175K PGA Eagle – $9.99 entry, 150 entry max. $30,000 to 1st, $10,000 to 2nd
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Webb Simpson $8,200 DK / $9,500 FD
- Hideki Matsuyama $8,900 DK / $10,500 FD
- Adam Scott $8,700 DK /$10,300 FD
- Justin Thomas $10,700 DK /$11,100 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list?Click here
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 15% owned)
- Danny Willett $7,600 DK / $8,800 FD
- Matt Wallace $7,700 DK / $9,000 FD
- Kevin Kisner $7,200 DK / $8,600 FD
- Phil Mickelson $7,300 DK / $9,100 FD
- Ian Poulter $7,400 DK / $8,500 FD
Golfer Review: For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPP’s).
$11,000+ (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Rory McIlroy $11,100 DK / $11,700 FD: 15-20% exposure – DJ’s my favorite play at the top, but Rory is the game theory play if you want to go that route with a handful of lineups. Last week was the perfect example of what Rory can do in DFS as he opened with a 79 and fought his way back to miss the cut by one after firing a 2nd round 65. No cut events mean we want guys who can score and Rory will have that opportunity every day this week.
$10,900-$9,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Jon Rahm $10,400 DK / $11,200 FD: 20-30% exposure – Rahm’s form is probably the most consistent in the field and it’s been consistently great since missing back to back cuts (11th – Win – 2nd – 3rd). I expected a Top 5 last week and he almost came through for us. This week should be more of the same. His rookie year on Tour was his best in WGC events after starting the year T3, 2nd, but we know he possesses a strong game which includes making a ton of birdies.
Patrick Cantlay $9,800 DK / $10,900 FD: 30-40% exposure – His last five WGC events have resulted in four Top 10’s and his expected ownership is around 15% this week because of a poor chalky performance at a weather affected major… Don’t miss out on a good Cantlay week because of recency bias!
Justin Rose $9,500 DK / $11,000 FD: 20-30% exposure –Rose has figured out his game and his irons since struggling earlier in the year and while he’s not a flashy player, he is good and only seems to be highly owned in obvious weeks (typically the Masters and Open Championship). There’s nothing obvious in his game that should make you want to fade him this week.
Matt Kuchar $9,000 DK / $10,000 FD: 20% exposure – Kuch is your typical cash play week in and week out, this week he actually is priced appropriately for how he plays and that means he’ll be lower owned than usual. He’s solid from tee to green and decent on bermuda grass greens and has two (2) finishes outside the Top 35 in his last twenty-two WGC events.
$8,900 – $7,500 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Adam Scott $8,700 DK / $10,300 FD: 20% exposure – I know what you’re thinking, how could I recommend him after last week’s chalk debacle? Well, golf is a fickle game and Scott is well aware of his putting woes so I’m sure he went home, relaxed for a bit and got back to working on his game. Outside of putting, the rest of his game is dialed in and he doesn’t have to sweat missing the cut.
Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,900 DK / $8,600 FD: 40% exposure – Last week was a typical Rafa letdown week. Comes in with great form and looks to be a solid play but couldn’t make any birdies to keep him around during the weekend. Now we’re in a no cut event, on a course that requires distance and accuracy and he’s a better putter on bermuda grass.
Danny Willett $7,600 DK / $8,800 FD: 15-20% exposure – Coming off a strong performance at The Open means he’ll more than likely carry more ownership than usual (not much more though), but with the scoring conditions possibly being in his favor this week (not a score-fest) and being back on bermuda greens (his better of the two grass types) he should be a decent play. I like that he’s more of a boom or bust player who offers much more than some in his finishing place bonus and has done so recently.
Billy Horschel $7,500 DK / $9,000 FD: 15-20+% exposure – We’re back on bermuda greens and in the hot south, so naturally targeting Billy Ho is a good idea, especially on tight courses. He’s a good ball striker and a much better putter, especially on bermuda greens and he’s been quite vocal about his affinity for playing courses like this, so I expect him to play much better this week.
<$7,400 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Phil Mickelson $7,300 DK / $9,100 FD: 20% exposure – Phil’s had a pretty poor summer but coming back to Southwind for a no-cut event should put him in a good place. He missed the cut last week by a mile, so he should be well rested, didn’t have to grind through too tough of conditions during the two rounds he played last week which means his state of mind should be in a good place as well. He’ll probably be quite chalky in all contests even after missing his last three cuts in a row.
Ian Poulter $7,400 DK / $8,500 FD: 15-20% exposure – Good course history (31st last year, 6th five years ago). Add in that this is a tight track that rewards ball striking and accuracy off the tee. Prior to missing last week’s cut, he had made his last two and finished 14th & 41st, so I’ll just take it as he wasn’t a good fit for Portrush.
Kevin Kisner $7,200 DK / $8,600 FD: 20% exposure – Bermuda greens, tight courses, and a no-cut event means it’s Kevin Kisner time. He started out hot on Thursday at The Open, fizzled a bit coming home and just kind of hung around all week. He was never in contention after Thursday, so I don’t think he’ll garner much interest this week and he checks all the boxes for course fit.
CT Pan $6,800 DK / $7,600 FD: 10% exposure – 18th here last year in his debut, which is enough to include him in the scrub section. He’s also earned his way into this field via his OWGR ranking (he’s inside the Top 50!). Pan is a great ball striker and an above average putter so getting him at low ownership and a cheap price in a no cut event should be a profitable move.
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odds
- Haotong Li $6,600 DK
- Kevin Kisner $7,200 DK
- Billy Horschel $7,500 DK
- Rafa Cabrera Bello $8,600 FD
- Chez Reavie $8,700 FD
- Andrew Putnum $8,900 FD
Last week’s hot takes
Top 10’s: Paul Casey (T57), Tommy Fleetwood (2nd), Rafa Cabrera Bello (MC)
Top 5’s: Rory McIlroy (MC), Jon Rahm (T11)
Winner: Xander Schauffele (T41)
This week’s hot takes
Top 10’s: Billy Horschel, Kevin Kisner, CT Pan
Top 5’s: Patrick Cantlay, Phil Mickelson
Winner: Jon Rahm