If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) PGA TOUR $300K Club Twirl: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP – $44 entry; $50,000 to 1st, $25,000 to 2nd, $1,000 to 11th– 15th; min cash $70 (less than 2x)
- (DK) PGA TOUR $800K Resurgence: 150 max entry – $10 entry; $200,000 to 1st, $100,000 to 2nd, $1,000 to 13th– 15th; min cash $15 (less than 2x)
- (DK) PGA TOUR $50K Dogleg: Single Entry – $33 entry; $5,000 to 1st, $3,500 to 2nd, $1,000 to 5th; min cash $50 (less than 2x)
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK limited max entry contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $125K PGA Eagle – $9 entry, 150 entry max. $25,000 to 1st, $10,000 to 2nd, $1,000 to 7th; min cash $16 (less than 2x)
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Dustin Johnson $11,000 DK / $12,000 FD
- Adam Scott $9,600 DK / $11,500 FD
- Paul Casey $8,700 DK /$10,700 FD
- Justin Thomas $10,800 DK /$11,700 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list? Click here
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 12% owned)
- Bubba Watson $8,200 DK / $9,900 FD
- Jon Rahm $10,600 DK / $11,800 FD
- Cameron Smith $7,700 DK / $8,700 FD
- Bernd Wiesberger $7,400 DK / $8,400 FD
- Charles Howell III $7,100 DK / $9,500 FD
WGC Mexico: The Golfers
For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPP’s).
$11,000+ (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Dustin Johnson $11,500 DK / $12,000 FD: Two-time winner of this event, his putting held him back from winning last week as he couldn’t make any birdies on the back nine, even when he was within a shot of the lead. These things have a way of working themselves out, so we’re going back to him.
$10,900-$9,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Adam Scott $9,600 DK / $11,500 FD:Last week’s winner did so by having a really good week on the greens with the broomstick putter. Of course, that’s not going to continue week after week, but as we know with Scott when he gets hot, he gets really hot and stays hot for a few events in a row. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finishes inside the Top 5 this week.
Xander Schauffele $9,400 DK / $11,100 FD: 14th & 18thin two appearances here, but my primary focus lies in his no cut events performance. In 64 rounds, he ranks 21st in the field in SG: T2G, 10th SG: OTT and 11th in DK Points. He ranks 11th in birdies, 12thin eagles, 6th in Par 5 efficiency and 30th in Par 4 efficiency during that same span. Nothing really eye popping, but he does seem to play a different type of game when the pressure is off.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,200 DK / $11,000 FD: 19th – 14th – 2nd over three appearances shows his history going in the wrong direction, but it’s Tommy and we know his upside every week. Will this be the week he finally cracks the podium on the PGA Tour? I think a lot of people will be waiting to use him in Florida on tougher courses, but we’re going to roll with him given his propensity to score in no-cut events.
Bryson Dechambeau $9,000 DK / $10,800 FD: The new workout regime is starting to pay dividends as he’s been gaining a ton of strokes off the tee as of late. His approach game was horrendous at WMPO, but bounced back last week at Riv, which helped him gain over 10 strokes tee to green. His next win is on the horizon.
$8,900-$7,700 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Paul Casey $8,700 DK / $10,700 FD: Last week’s 37th place finish had some positives. 5.5 strokes gained tee to green, 3.2 strokes gained off the tee, and 5.6 strokes gained on approaches. He lost over 6.5 strokes around and on the greens. EVENTUALLY, he’s going to have a week where he doesn’t lose more than a stroke on the greens and he’s going to give us a Top 5 or better.
Collin Morikawa $8,500 DK / $10,500 FD: $400 increase on both sites from last week, where he couldn’t make a putt on Sunday (which could’ve catapulted him into the Top 5 had he made anything. His ball striking is great and the putting can flip so we’re going back.
Bubba Watson $8,200 DK / $9,900 FD: 27th – 9th – 38th over the years (primarily when this event was hosted at Doral), but he still comes in playing well despite missing the cut last week and the course setup is ideal for his game.
Brandt Snedeker $7,700 DK / $10,200 FD: A better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, where his price is absurd. We’re back on poa and Sneds has been playing well coming in, nothing eye popping, but he’s playing solid golf which could result in an outlier finish as he heads into the twilight of his PGA Tour career.
< $7,600 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Victor Perez $7,600 DK / $9,300 FD: Up & coming ball striker from the European Tour. He’s finished 2ndin multiple events since the Tour changed years and he looks the part of what we’ve seen from guys like Bjerregaard, Noren and Hatton as they’ve matured on Tour.
Bernd Wiesberger $7,400 DK / $8,400 FD:A better value on FanDuel than DraftKings, he’s a bomber who can mash it out there and have a bunch of wedges into these greens. His putting is meh, but if he gets hot with the irons, he won’t have to make very long putts.
Kevin Kisner $7,200 DK / $9,400 FD: Our #2 value according to his pricing versus betting odds on DraftKings. He’s a good wedge player who happens to pop up on courses like this as he’s very accurate. I’d prefer him on bermuda grass greens, but we’re getting him at a really good price.
Mike Lorenzo-Vera $6,400 DK / $8,100 FD: Every year at these events we get a random good Euro player who pops up for a couple days and I think MLV is that type of player. His game is solid, he’s contended on the Euro Tour recently and is our #1 value on DraftKings versus betting odds. He also helps you jam in some studs in your lineup if you’re looking to build a stars & scrubs type.
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odds
- Mike Lorenzo-Vera $6,400 DK
- Kevin Kisner $7,200 DK
- Carlos Ortiz $6,600 DK
- Robert MacIntyre $8,500 FD
- Bernd Wiesberger $8,400 FD
- Branden Grace $8,600 FD
Last week’s hot takes (Genesis)
- Top 10’s: Corey Conners (MC), Keegan Bradley (MC), Joaquin Niemann (MC)
- Top 5’s: Tony Finau (MC), Jon Rahm (T17)
- Winner: Dustin Johnson (T10)
This week’s hot takes
- Top 10’s: Xander Schaufelle, Tommy Fleetwood, Paul Casey
- Top 5’s: Adam Scott, Bryson Dechambeau
- Winner: Dustin Johnson