If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week…
If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) $400K Match Play Special: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP that pays top 20% overall, min cash is 1.50x – $5 entry; $100,000 to 1st,$40,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $200K Club Twirl: 150 MME GPP min cash is 1.5x – $44 entry; $50,000 to 1st, $20,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $20k Long Drive Single Entry: $100 single entry; $3,000 to 1st, $2,000 to 2nd, min cash is 2x.
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK 3-max contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD): No Match Play contests on FanDuel this week
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Dustin Johnson $11,400 DK
- Bubba Watson $8,900 DK
- Ian Poulter $7,700 DK
- Tiger Woods $9,200 DK
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list? Click here
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 15% owned)
- Tony Finau $9,000 DK
- Hideki Matsuyama $8,200 DK
- Si Woo Kim $6,500 DK
- Matt Wallace $7,100 DK
- Lucas Bjerregaard $6,200 DK
Writer’s Note: This week I’m switching it up because of the format and because the event starts on Wednesday March 27th morning. I’m listing my favorite plays based on how I feel the pods will play out and how I have the Sweet 16 and beyond projected. Your lineups should make sense this week according to the bracket which you can find at fantasybracket.pgatour.com.
With this week being match play, I think it’s more advantageous to pick using your brain & gut, than relying solely on stats as one bad round eliminates a player (after pod play) so I’ve listed my picks to win below without any analysis because what I think might be much different than what you think.
The most important part of playing DFS this week is making sure you build lineups assuming all six of your players will make the “Elite 8” (just like an NCAA bracket). There will be a ton of dead lineups this week (just like there was last year) where people pick their teams based on projections without acknowledging the bracket and how this event works.
I can’t stress this enough. If you think Justin Harding (for example) wins his pod and makes it to the Elite 8, play him in your lineup, because if he makes it out of pod play, you’ll have a ton of leverage on the field based on our expected ownership of Rory McIlroy this week.
Stacking a side is also a game theory play this week as most people will go with 3 players from one side of the bracket and 3 players from the other. If you want to get different you could stack at max 4 from one side, but those four need to be in your elite 8, and one of them better not be a chalky play or you’re drawing dead after that round.
If you do want some analysis to go along with these picks, check out the preview article which was written prior to the bracket being released. It should give you a better idea of how I think players will play with zero context of how they shaped up after yesterday’s draw. Next week we’ll get back to the normal format, but this week this is what we’re rolling with.
Dustin Johnson / Hideki Matsuyama / Branden Grace / Chez Reavie
My pick to win: Dustin Johnson $11,400
Patrick Reed / Sergio Garcia / Shane Lowry / Andrew Putnum
My pick to win: Sergio Garcia $8,500
Xander Schauffele / Rafa Cabrera Bello / Tyrrell Hatton / Lee Westwood
My pick to win: Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,500
Jon Rahm / Matt Kuchar / JB Holmes / Si Woo Kim
My pick to win: Si Woo Kim $6,500
Justin Thomas / Keegan Bradley / Matt Wallace / Lucas Bjerregaard
My pick to win: Matt Wallace $7,100
Jason Day / Phil Mickelson / Henrik Stenson / Jim Furyk
My pick to win: Jason Day $9,800
Tiger Woods / Patrick Cantlay / Brandt Snedeker / Aaron Wise
My pick to win: Tiger Woods $9,200
Sleeper: Brandt Snedeker $7,800
Rory McIlroy / Matthew Fitzpatrick / Justin Harding / Luke List
My pick to win: Rory McIlroy $11,700
Group 2 (other side of the bracket)
Justin Rose / Gary Woodland / Eddie Pepperell / Emiliano Grillo
My pick to win: Gary Woodland $7,800
Bubba Watson / Jordan Spieth / Billy Horschel / Kevin Na
My pick to win: Bubba Watson $8,900
Paul Casey / Cameron Smith / Charles Howell III / Abraham Ancer
My pick to win: Paul Casey $9,100
Francesco Molinari / Webb Simpson / Thorbjorn Olesen / Satoshi Kodaira
My pick to win: Francesco Molinari $9,300
Bryson Dechambeau / Marc Leishman / Kiradech Aphibarnrat / Russell Knox
My pick to win: Kiradech Aphibarnrat $6,700
Tommy Fleetwood / Louis Oosthuizen / Kyle Stanley / Byeong Hun An
My pick to win: Tommy Fleetwood $9,600
Tony Finau / Ian Poulter / Kevin Kisner / Keith Mitchell
My pick to win: Ian Poulter $7,700
Brooks Koepka / Alex Noren / Haotong Li / Tom Lewis
My pick to win: Brooks Koepka $10,300
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK to Sportsbook Odds (no FD contests for the Match Play this week)
- Byeong Hun An $6,300 DK
- Ian Poulter $7,700 DK
- Kevin Kisner $7,000 DK
- Keith Mitchell $6,400 DK
- Keegan Bradley $7,200 DK
- Louis Oosthuizen $7,500 DK
Last week’s hot takes (Valspar)
(correct picks in green)
- Top 10’s: Henrik Stenson (T24), Jim Furyk (T18), Patrick Reed (MC)
- Top 5’s: Dustin Johnson (T6), Gary Woodland (MC)
- Winner: Sergio Garcia (T54)
This week’s hot takes
- Final Four: Si Woo Kim, Matt Wallace, Bubba Watson, Brooks Koepka
- Winner: Brooks Koepka