If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) $500K Drive the Green: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP that pays top 20% overall, min cash is 1.50x – $5 entry; $100,000 to 1st,$40,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $400K Club Twirl: 150 MME GPP min cash is 1.5x – $44 entry; $100,000 to 1st, $40,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $20k Dogleg Single Entry: $33 single entry; $2,000 to 1st, $1,500 to 2nd, min cash is 1.5x.
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK 3-max contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $100K PGA Eagle – $7.77 entry, pays out top 20%, min cash is 1.5x, 150 entry max. $20,000 to 1st, $10,000 to 2nd, min cash of 1.98x
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Dustin Johnson $11,500 DK / $12,600 FD
- Jason Kokrak $8,600 DK / $9,700 FD
- Sergio Garcia $10,100 DK / $11,300 FD
- Jason Day $10,700 DK /$11,800 FD
- Henrik Stenson $9,100 DK /$10,400 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list? Click here
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
**Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 15% owned)**
- Joel Dahmen $7,400 DK / $7,700 FD
- Roger Sloan $7,000 DK / $8,000 FD
- Adam Schenk $6,900 DK / $8,700 FD
- Zach Johnson $7,600 DK / $9,900 FD
- Kevin Na $7,800 DK / $8,600 FD
Golfer Review: For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPP’s).
>$11,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Dustin Johnson $11,500 DK / $12,600 FD: 20-30+% exposure – Last week fading a cheap chalk Rory burned us and while my first reaction was to go 50% on DJ this week I think its important to remember the probability of other outcomes. Sure, DJ is the best in this field, and he could probably win with his B to B-minus game this week, but all it takes is a couple wayward shots on Thursday or Friday and DJ is gone. Don’t be reactive to last week’s bad decisions. Learn from your mistakes and grow as a DFS player. (DJ is not cheap chalk this week, by the way).
$10,900 – $9,800 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Jason Day $10,700 DK / $11,800 FD: 10%+ exposure – Going to throw a small amount of exposure behind Day this week as I think this could be one of those weeks where there’s a massive rush of people to play him and he either starts cold and withdraws for some reason or another, OR, he starts slow and never gets it back on a tough track. The 10% exposure is basically a hedge in case he goes out and wins the damn thing.
- Webb Simpson $10,400 DK / $10,700 FD: 20%+ exposure – Webb quietly snuck his way into the Top 20 last week (on the heels of a hot putter) at sub 10% ownership (as the defending champion). If he can put that hot putter in the bag again this week, while pairing with his typically strong ball striking, we could be looking at a week where Webb contends.
- Sergio Garcia $10,100 DK / $11,300 FD: 25% exposure – 4th last year where he putted like typical Sergio (losing more than one stroke), and four straight solid finishes for Sergio place him on our radars yet again this week as the course sets up well for his game. If he can putt the way he did last week, we should get a Top 10 finish out of him.
- Gary Woodland $9,900 DK / $10,600 FD: 15-20% exposure – Former winner and less than driver specialist, Woodland has been playing well enough to give a look this week. His bread & butter is tee to green and if he can find something with the putter we’ll get a 90th percentile finish.
$9,700 – $8,800 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Patrick Reed $9,500 DK / $10,600 FD: 40% exposure – I think Reed will be the play that everyone talks about playing this week, but ultimately sees 5% or more less ownership than everyone thinks. His scrambling has been saving his hide all year (which is not anything new), and if he can put a strong tee to green game with an average or better putting week we’ll see another Top 10 finish here.
- Keegan Bradley $9,400 DK / $10,100 FD: 25% exposure – Hasn’t missed a cut since mid-summer last year, is lights out from tee to green and has flashes once a week with the putter. In his last 50 rounds, he’s scored the 25th most DK points in this field, so he’s worth a shot at mid-level exposure this week where our options are a bit limited after the top of the board.
- Jim Furyk $9,200 DK / $10,100 FD: 25%+ exposure – Furyk looks back to being healthy and playing well on less than driver courses thus far this season. He finished 37that the Genesis, 9that the Honda (which was our first look at the fully healthy Furyk) and of course his improbable finish yesterday. Furyk’ s all-around game is strong and the only argument I could see making against him this week would be ownership and putting. He ranks top 10 in course history, Top 5 in form, Top 10 total strokes gained over his last 36 rounds and Top 30 in DK points over that same time
- Henrik Stenson $9,100 DK / $10,500 FD: 30%+ exposure – The missed cut last week for Stenson coming off a strong performance at the API was a bit of a surprise, but one I think we can take as a positive for this week as it should lower his ownership because people will probably think there’s something wrong with him. This is a course where he can lose strokes off the tee and still play well, which is something he’s been consistently doing this season. His putting is what ultimately let him down last week and cost him a shot at playing the weekend. Stenson is a guy we’re going to have to selectively target on courses where he has strong course history, and that’s what we have here this week.
<$8,700 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Kevin Kisner $8,5DK / $9,900 FD: 15+% exposure – Kis’ form isn’t eye popping enough where I think he’ll be massively owned (22nd– 23rd – 27thin his last three events). We’re still on bermuda greens and a course that requires strong ball striking and accuracy which speaks to Kisner’s strengths. He’s also been on the plus side of his tee to green game for the last two events which indicates things are finally starting to click.
- Brandt Snedeker $8,400 DK / $9,800 FD: 30+% exposure –The ball striking hasn’t been the best, but his putting lately has been the differentiator. Eventually he’s going to get back into a groove with the approach shots, and it looked like maybe last week was the first of many where we can expect to see Sneds contending again.
- Sungjae Im $7,700 DK / $8,200 FD: 15+% exposure – Typical brand play here. Excellent ball striker who can’t putt. His ball striking led to a hole in one last week, but he also ejected after that and missed the cut which should reduce his ownership as I expect many were on him. Even though he’s not the best putter in the field, he still racks up a ton of birdie opportunities and ranks 25th in DK scoring over his last 36 rounds.
- Adam Schenk $6,900 DK / $8,200 FD: 15% exposure – Schenk’s tee to green game has been awesome in his last three events. His approach game has been solid, and the putting has been a mix of both good and bad. The good news is he’s rarely owned by the public and has been turning in decent finishes during that span. He’s a guy who can win you a GPP when everything is clicking and comes in at a nice discount this week.
- Danny Willett $6,700 DK / $ FD: 15% exposure – Willett’s accuracy and baseline play on tough courses is the main draw here, as well as this bargain bin pricing. If scoring is tough, I could see Willett finding the first page or two of the leaderboard for most of the week, similar to when he won the Masters. If scoring is up, he might have to fight to make the cut, so let’s not get too crazy with exposure this week.
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odds
- Jonas Blixt $6,200 DK
- Kramer Hickok $6,400 DK
- Scott Brown $6,300 DK
- Sung Kang $7,900 FD
- Ollie Schniederjans $8,100 FD
- Joel Dahmen $7,700 FD
Last week’s hot takes (Hero World Challenge)
(correct picks in green)
- Top 10’s: Rory McIlroy (WINNER), Ian Poulter (T56), Matt Kuchar (T26)
- Top 5’s: Tommy Fleetwood (T5), Hideki Matsuyama (T8), Xander Schauffele (MC)
- Winner: Jason Day (T8) or Tiger Woods (T30)
This week’s hot takes
- Top 10’s: Henrik Stenson, Jim Furyk, Patrick Reed
- Top 5’s: Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland
- Winner: Sergio Garcia