If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) $400K Drive the Green: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP that pays top 21% overall, min cash is 1.60x – $5 entry; $100,000 to 1st,$40,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $250K Club Twirl: 150 MME GPP min cash is 1.7x – $44 entry; $50,000 to 1st, $20,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $30k Albatross Single Entry: $12 single entry; $3,000 to 1st, $2,000 to 2nd, min cash is 2x.
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK 3-max contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $60K PGA Eagle – $7.77 entry, pays out top 20%, 150 entry max. $10,000 to 1st, $6,000 to 2nd, min cash of 1.98x
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Rickie Fowler $11,700 DK / $12,500 FD
- Tony Finau $10,800 DK / $12,000 FD
- Matt Kuchar $11,200 DK /$12,100 FD
- Byeong Hun An $9,200 DK /$10,200 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list?Click here
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 15% owned)
- JB Holmes $8,000 DK / $9,900 FD
- Bud Cauley $7,400 DK / $9,000 FD
- Dylan Frittelli $7,300 DK / $9,300 FD
- Adam Schenk $6,700 DK / $7,900 FD
- Chris Kirk $7,100 DK / $8,700 FD
Golfer Review: For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPP’s).
$11,000-$10,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
NONE – Game theory play this week is to fade the top of the board. If you don’t think that’s a good idea, I’d lean Kuchar over Rickie or Tony based on wins, form and pedigree.
$9,900-$9,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Billy Horschel $9,800 DK / $11,000 FD: 20%+ exposure – Its been feast or famine for BillyHo at TPC SA over the years. Three Top 5’s, one 11thplace finish to go along with two missed cuts and two finishes that were probably DFL. I like the form he brings with him this week after an early exit at the Match Play, and with the way we’re building our lineups this week it should be a contrarian approach.
Jason Kokrak $9,400 DK / $11,200 FD:40%+ exposure – Two Top 15’s here in seven appearances, but Kokrak’s form has been a big differentiator. His ownership has coincided with the finishes, and I hope everyone’s first instinct with him was the same as mine, because I’ve changed my tune. His OTT + APP game should reap benefits here and I’m really hoping we’re not walking away with egg on our faces after devoting a large exposure to him.
Lucas Glover $9,300 DK / $10,800 FD: 20-25% exposure – One missed cut in one appearance here should keep many off of Glover who’s been a high upside, low floor play all season. He bounced back from a rare missed cut with a 13th place finish at the Valspar and has been doing so with a hot putter as of late.
Byeong Hun An $9,200 DK / $10,200 FD: 35-40% exposure – BHA has been a beast from tee to green and has been the complete opposite on the greens. When the putter gets going (and it will) he’s going to win by more than 2 strokes. I’m hoping that happens this week.
***10-15% exposure to Ryan Moore $9,100 DK / $10,100 FD because I feel like his game is turning around and even though this course isn’t fit for his game, he does have a way of finding form leading into the Masters.
$8,900 – $8,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Abraham Ancer $8,900 DK / $10,300 FD: 40% exposure – Hailing from Texas, Ancer is probably a much better wind player than his stats indicate (plays better in moderate wind versus really windy conditions). He’s in form (12th – MC – 39th) and has the type of game that should be a fit for TPC San Antonio. He’s very strong from tee to green and when the putter isn’t costing him strokes, it’s the difference between a Top 30 and a Top 10.
Jhonattan Vegas $8,700 DK / $10,400 FD: 20% exposure – Vegas is an interesting play this week as well based on lead-in form and how he performs in difficult conditions. First off, his putting is the best on bermuda, and that’s only because he doesn’t lose strokes on bermuda greens on average. He’s not very good on difficult courses, but is good in the wind (which I’m calling a wash). Over his last five events (not including Punta Cana) he’s gained four strokes from tee to green, and over one and a half on the greens. He’s playing very well and might be worth more than just his usual dart throw exposure this week.
Haotong Li $8,600 DK / $10,000 FD:30%+ exposure – Haotong stays in the states again this week as he gets ready for Masters week. He’s a first timer here naturally as this event is typically held AFTER the Masters, but his game shapes up well for the course even as a first timer. I like him a ton as someone who follows the European Tour and how his game has translated on similar courses across the pond.
JB Holmes $8,000 DK / $9,900 FD: 40%+ exposure – JB has been an odd duck here missing the cut in two of six appearances, but also finishing Top 16 in three of those. His game seems well suited for the course and comes in off a decent showing at the WGC MP where he was ousted in pod play. Hopefully this means we could get the bomber with a good wedge game at low ownership (projected ownership confirms this).
Luke List $8,000 DK / $10,500 FD: 40% exposure – I think this is a great course for his game. He’s not really in form right now, but dusting off the clubs at Austin CC last week for three rounds (and beating Matthew Fitzpatrick in the process) had to be a good sign for things to come and hopefully we see those results this week.
<$7,900 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Russell Henley $7,900 DK / $9,400 FD: 15+% exposure – Playing Henley this week might be a bit too much for you to stomach as he too only has one start here in the last 10 years, but he’s long enough off the tee, strong enough with the ball striking and an excellent putter on bermuda greens and has won in Texas in the past so I’m not counting him out quite yet.
Joaquin Niemann $7,600 DK / $9,600 FD: <15% exposure – Niemann got his first pro start here last year and ended up 6th. His game isn’t quite in the same place as it was then, but he’s learned a lot on Tour and when his game is clicking, it would suit this course and the potential conditions we’re expecting to see. I prefer him as a one-off or at low exposure this week just because of how badly he played in basically a web.com event last week.
Joel Dahmen $7,500 DK / $9,300 FD: 40% exposure – Dahmen has now made his last three cuts in a row after last week’s 12th place finish in the Dominican. His tee to green game over the last five has been great, it’s just the putter, which was better last week based on the very few holes I actually watched. He’s a guy that gives himself a ton of opportunities, and eventually the putting will correct itself for a day or two.
Bud Cauley $7,400 DK / $9,000 FD: <15% exposure – 10th here two years ago and an 18th in his debut are the highlights for ‘ol Bud. He’s a strong Par 4 scorer who also plays well in the wind and in Texas as a baseline, and the price is decent enough for me to throw him on the end of the core in a couple of spots, but he just seems to always let me down in ideal situations so I’m a bit timid with giving him too much exposure.
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odds
- Stephan Jaeger $6,000 DK
- Ryan Armour $6,700 DK
- Cameron Tringale $6,000 DK
- Justin Harding $7,000 FD
- Nick Taylor $8,700 FD
- Grayson Murray $7,700 FD
Last week’s hot takes
(None of my picks made it out of pod play, so good job me!)
This week’s hot takes