If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) $450K Club Twirl: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP – $44 entry; $100,000 to 1st,$40,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $750K Drive the Green: 150 entry max – $5 entry; $150,000 to 1st, $75,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $50K Long Drive (Single Entry): $100 entry; $5,000 to 1st, $4,000 to 2nd
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK 3-max contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $175K PGA Eagle – $9.99 entry, 150 entry max. $30,000 to 1st, $12,000 to 2nd
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Emiliano Grillo $7,900 DK / $9,900 FD
- Kevin Streelman $8,200 DK / $9,500 FD
- Patrick Cantlay $11,300 DK /$11,500 FD
- Charley Hoffman $8,100 DK /$9,700 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list?Click here
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 15% owned)
- Jason Day $10,000 DK / $11,000 FD
- Marc Leishman $9,100 DK / $10,500 FD
- Collin Morikawa $6,900 DK / $8,700 FD
- Hank Lebioda $6,700 DK / $7,600 FD
- Max Homa $7,200 DK / $8,000 FD
Golfer Review: For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPP’s).
$11,000+ (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Brooks Koepka $11,800 DK / $12,600 FD: 20%+ exposure – In a vacuum he’s much better than Cantlay and Spieth so if you must play someone at the top I think it has to be Brooks. His best finish at this event was 9th in 2016 when he was playing for something so he’s obviously a course fit. The issue I have with paying up for him is getting a finish outside of the Top 5 like we did last year (T19).
$10,900-$9,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Jason Day $10,000 DK / $11,100 FD: 40% exposure –JDay possesses a complete game which is propped up by his ability as a strong putter. I don’t think we need to worry about his tee to green issues from the Memorial as it wasn’t an issue last week. His form has been solid all year and he’s usually in contention in weaker field events.
Paul Casey $9,500 DK / $11,300 FD: 40% exposure – 2nd – 5th – 17th – 2nd is how his course history reads and he comes in off some decent play over the weekend at Pebble, which makes me believe he’ll be a popular play this week. Elite from tee to green, horrible putter. We know what we’re getting with him and he’s shown up here in the past following performances of all kinds at the US Open, so I don’t think we need to hesitate when clicking his name.
Bryson Dechambeau $9,200 DK / $10,800 FD: 20% exposure – Dechambeau’s hot putter continued last week as he gained over four strokes again on the greens. That’s something we can expect to take a hit this week as he’s only had three straight events where he’s gained over three strokes on the greens once during the last two years. That being said, the rest of his game is coming along, and I expect his tee to green game to jump up this week.
Marc Leishman $9,100 DK / $10,500 FD: 20% exposure – Missed the cut here last year, but outside of that he’s been a consistent performer at TPC River Highlands and won the event in 2012. He’s provides a solid floor with upside and his form is back on the upward swing after a shaky spring.
$8,900 – $8,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Bubba Watson $8,900 DK / $10,600 FD: 15-20% exposure – The three-time winner has been struggling as of late in various areas. Last week was expected as he doesn’t perform well on tough tracks where he needs to keep the ball in front of him. His tee to green game has been bad the last two events he’s played, and his ball striking has been bad now for over a month and a half. When he gets to a course he likes, he plays well. I prefer him as a GPP only play this week.
Brandt Snedeker $8,600 DK / $10,000 FD: 20-30% exposure – Another consistent performer at this event over the years had a hiccup last year, but preceded that with three straight Top 15’s. Last week’s 77th place finish was a downer for many, but I expect him to get back into the Top 10 this week.
Patrick Reed $8,500 DK / $10,300 FD: 20% exposure – The boom or bust play of the week in my opinion. When many people will look to the consistency of Tony Finau’s history (3 straight Top 25’s) instead I’d look to Reed who provides the same upside at lower ownership. His three missed cuts show us his volatility in any event, but I think he’ll welcome an easier setup this week.
Charley Hoffman $8,100 DK / $9,700 FD:15-20% exposure – Ranks 12th in the field in DK pts over his last 24 rounds on Par 70 courses, and his putter has been pretty hot on poa greens. He’s got three Top 10’s here over the past nine years and most recently finished 3rdtwo years ago. His form had a hiccup at the Charles Schwab, but I would still consider him to be in form.
<$7,900 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Victor Hovland $7,900 DK / $9,800 FD: 40% exposure – Hovland finished T12 in his final event as an amateur and his tee to green game looks extremely sharp. It doesn’t hurt that he’s a really good putter either. I don’t see him being the type of player who falters now that he’s on the PGA Tour.
Russell Knox $7,700 DK / $9,700 FD: 15-20+% exposure – Knox hasn’t been great this year, but he does have a Top 10 in the last month. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage, which was uncharacteristic of him (primarily due to poor approaches and an ice-cold putter). As long as he’s able to do what he normally does well, I think we can trust him in all formats and expect a finish somewhere in the Top 30.
Keegan Bradley $7,700 DK / $9,600 FD: 10% exposure – The good news: he hasn’t missed the cut here the last eight times he played and so far this year he hasn’t missed two straight cuts (he missed the cut last week at Pebble). The bad news: his upside seems capped (until it isn’t). He can come out of the gates firing, often times leading after 18 holes, but has been known to miss cuts after being first round leader. He’ll probably be a popular play in cash this week, but I prefer him in GPPs.
Matthew Wolff $7,300 DK / $8,700 FD: 10% exposure – He’s long off the tee, a very good ball striker and can scramble with the best of them. He’s got the winner’s mentality and now brings his talents to the PGA Tour. We’ll be riding him until he’s priced up in strong events (or until his game gets cold, which might not happen).
Collin Morikawa $6,900 DK / $8,700 FD: 30% exposure – The University of California graduate made his debut as a professional at the RBC Canadian Open finishing 14th and backed that up with a T35 finish at last week’s US Open. Even though he hasn’t logged many rounds on the PGA Tour yet, he appears to be a #brand play as he’s got elite approach numbers and lacks in the off the tee game and has had one outlier performance with the putter through four events. I don’t see any issue playing him in all formats if you’re trying to jam in two studs at the top.
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odds
- Carlos Ortiz $6,400 DK
- Collin Morikawa $6,900 DK
- Brandon Harkins $6,200 DK
- Joaquin Niemann $8,400 FD
- Ollie Schniederjans $7,100 FD
- Andrew Putnum $8,400 FD
Last week’s hot takes (US Open)
Top 10’s: Tony Finau (MC), Tiger Woods (T21), Francesco Molinari (T16)
Top 5’s: Rickie Fowler (T43), Hideki Matsuyama (T21)
Winner: Tommy Fleetwood (T65)
This week’s hot takes
Top 10’s: Collin Marikawa, Victor Hovland, Matthew Wolff
Top 5’s: Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker
Winner: Paul Casey