If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) PGA TOUR $800K Drive the Green: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP – $5 entry; $200,000 to 1st,$100,000 to 2nd
- (DK) PGA TOUR $400K Club Twirl: 150 max entry – $44 entry; $100,000 to 1st, $40,000
- (DK) PGA TOUR $100K Driver: Single entry – $200 entry; $20,000 to 1st, $10,000 to 2nd
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK 3-max contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $200K PGA Eagle – $12 entry, 150 entry max. $50,000 to 1st, $20,000 to 2nd
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Adam Scott $8,200 DK / $9,300 FD
- Jon Rahm $9,900 DK / $10,700 FD
- Hideki Matsuyama $9,300 DK /$9,700 FD
- Tony Finau $8,800 DK /$9,500 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list?Click here
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 20% owned)
- Sungjae Im $5,900 DK / $7,200 FD
- Brooks Koepka $12,200 DK / $12,100 FD
- Webb Simpson $9,700 DK / $10,300 FD
- Justin Thomas $15,500 DK / $14,200 FD
- Abraham Ancer $7,100 DK / $8,400 FD
Golfer Review: For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPP’s).
$11,000+ (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Brooks Koepka $12,100 DK / $12,100 FD: 20%+ exposure – Brooks starts the week out three shots back, which shouldn’t be an issue as long as he starts out his round dropping putts. His aggressive play should be an asset for us this week and he’s been vocal on social media about his desire to add to his bank account. At over a $3,000 discount from JT, he’s my number one play this week not only because of what I already listed, but also because he’s a great course fit. He confirmed that by finishing 6th here two years ago.
$10,900-$8,100 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Rory McIlroy $10,600 DK / $11,400 FD: 20%+ exposure – The former winner of this event begins the week five shots back, which shouldn’t be too much to overcome, especially with Rory’s aggressive nature off the tee. There’s a bit of concern if things go wrong early, but we’ll need to target someone other than Rahm (see below) in this price range if we want to diversify our player pool, and Rory’s the type of player that we should be targeting.
Jon Rahm $9,900 DK / $10,700 FD: 20% exposure – Rahm’s strong play in no cut events has almost as much reason for his expected high ownership this week as his current form. I love Rahm for single entry lineups, but for multi entry purposes, I think it’s best to target him at 20% or slightly above and diversify throughout this price range.Rahm starts the week six shots back which isn’t too concerning, but we know if things go wrong for him, he tends to blow up and if that happens we’ll be happy we didn’t over expose our lineups with him.
Webb Simpson $9,700 DK / $10,300 FD: 20-30% exposure – He’s a tee to green guru whose found a putting stroke he can depend on week in and week out and has done so quite well on bermuda greens. He’s someone I really like as a GPP pivot because of where he begins the week and how aggressive he can play when he needs to start dropping birdies.
Xander Schauffele $9,500 DK / $10,500 FD: 20-30% exposure – A former winner of this event just two years ago, Xander begins the week six shots back and if there’s one thing we know about him, it’s that he has just as much ability to go low as anyone else in this range especially in no cut events (see Sunday’s round at the Tournament of Champions). Xander’s blow up potential/risk is quite low, so he appears to be one of the safer high upside plays in this price range.
$8,000-$6,500 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Tommy Fleetwood $7,700 DK / $8,200 FD: 20% exposure – Fleetwood starts out nine shots back this week, so he’s basically out of contention for the $15MM bonus, but he should be a solid value play to build around and still has a shot at making over a million in bonuses if he can finish inside the Top 8. As of writing I’m not sure where he’ll slot in ownership-wise, but if he’s going to be chalky I think I’d pass on him in GPPs even though he finished well here last year and wait to pick him back up next season. Sadly, I think we’ll have to wait until next spring before we get a PGA Tour win out of our boy.
Paul Casey $7,500 DK / $8,300 FD: 15-20% exposure –Casey starts out the week eight shots back, and he too is basically out of the event, but offers us some salary relief and brings a solid game which should result in some low scores. Casey’s history here is pretty impeccable as he’s finished 11th– 5th – 4th – 5th in his last four appearances which indicates a strong course fit and someone we should absolutely be building around. I was worried about him WD’ing last week, only because he’s done it before, but since he didn’t I don’t think we need to worry about that this week.
Abraham Ancer $7,100 DK / $8,400 FD: 20+% exposure – Ancer’s a first timer at East Lake, but his game should suit the course needs as he’s shown us his game is starting to fit on most courses. He’s basically free-rolling some extra cash this week, but as a young star I think he’s hungry for more and the six stroke deficit to start the week shouldn’t be too daunting.
Justin Rose $6,900 DK / $9,000 FD: 30+% exposure – Rose really dug a hole for himself after last week’s performance, but the defending champion isn’t completely out of it for our purposes.Even though he’s starting the week eight shots back, I don’t think he’s a high risk play as someone who could potentially withdraw from the event. His history here over the past ten years is riddled with Top 10’s (six straight to be exact) which shows me he’s a great course fit and someone we should be looking at often when building our lineups.
<$7,900 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Sungjae Im $5,900 DK / $7,200 FD: 15-20% exposure –First timer at the Tour Championship who starts out nine shots back. He’s been a grinder all year, playing in 36 events this season which has helped him climb to 54th in the world. His best finishes to date have come on bermuda grass greens and all on courses which require strong ball striking. At $5,900, I think we could jam him into a couple lineups with JT and possibly someone else over $10,000 that could really pay off come Sunday.
Bryson Dechambeau $5,500 DK / $7,600 FD: 15-20% exposure – Another week where Bryson’s ownership was much higher than expected means we’re going to go back again in hopes of low ownership. Bryson starts the week ten shots back, and while he hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders as of late, I think now that the whole “slow play thing” has had another week to erase itself from the memories of the Tour he should be able to focus more on golf than what he’s going to say in his press conference following his rounds.
Charles Howell III $5,000 DK / $7,000 FD: 15-20% exposure – Howell makes his return to East Lake for the first time since 2011 where he finished 6th. Unfortunately for him, he starts the week ten shots back and will have to come out of the gates firing at almost every pin if he wants to set himself up for a strong weekend. That’s the good news for us, especially at this price. He’s a strong course fit as he’s solid from tee to green and like many other players from the south, he’s much more comfortable on bermuda greens.
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odds
- Justin Rose $6,900 DK
- Dustin Johnson $8,400 DK
- Louis Oosthuizen $5,700 DK
- Jason Kokrak $7,000 FD
- Marc Leishman $7,300 FD
- Lucas Glover $7,000 FD
Last week’s hot takes
Top 10’s: Matt Kuchar (T52), Justin Thomas (1st), Patrick Cantlay (2nd)
Top 5’s: Bryson Dechambeau (T48), Byeong Hun An (T28)
Winner: Jon Rahm (T5)
This week’s hot takes
Top 10’s: Paul Casey, Justin Rose, Sungjae Im
Top 5’s: Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson
Winner: Brooks Koepka