If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) $400K Club Twirl: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP – $44 entry; $100,000 to 1st,$40,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $600K Drive the Green: 150 entry max – $5 entry; $100,000 to 1st, $50,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $100K Driving Range 3-Max: $150 entry; $15,000 to 1st, $10,000 to 2nd
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK 3-max contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $150K PGA Eagle – $9.99 entry, 150 entry max. $25,000 to 1st, $10,000 to 2nd
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Dustin Johnson $12,000 DK / $12,500 FD
- Kevin Streelman $8,600 DK / $9,500 FD
- Ryan Moore $9,500 DK /$10,200 FD
- Joaquin Niemann $8,900 DK /$9,800 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list?Click here
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 15% owned)
- Patrick Reed $9,300 DK / $10,800 FD
- Bubba Watson $8,700 DK / $10,700 FD
- Brandt Snedeker $9,900 DK / $10,600 FD
- Jimmy Walker $7,700 DK / $9,700 FD
- Luke List $7,700 DK / $9,300 FD
Golfer Review: For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPP’s).
$11,000+ (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Dustin Johnson $12,000 DK / $12,500 FD: 30%+ exposure – Poa is his friend, the course doesn’t look too challenging and he’s now had the two worst performances in a row to date. I don’t see any reason not to play DJ this week especially with how weak the field is after Rickie.
$10,900-$9,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Hideki Matsuyama $10,200 DK / $11,300 FD: 40% exposure – “More expensive BHA” means we get an elite tee to green player with a balky putter (though he has poa putting splits in his favor) at a higher cost and while he’s not an obvious value play he is at a value at this price this week and we need to take advantage. I hate to say he’s due for a win, but I think it’s pretty obvious that he is since he hasn’t won since the WGC Bridgestone in 2017 and he does play better in the summer (if you need more narrative to play him).
Brandt Snedeker $9,900 DK / $10,600 FD: 40% exposure – I thought we were going to get the bounce back performance last week, but it never came. That being said, we’ve been on him now for three straight weeks and jumping ship seems like asking to lose money considering the course fit and the form. He’s close to putting it all together for four rounds, he just needs to clean up the one area that breaks him each week.
Chez Reavie $9,700 DK / $10,900 FD: 10% exposure – I don’t have a ton of faith in Reavie following his first win in ages, but statistically he rates out very well for this course as he’s a strong ball striker with a good putter, especially on poa. I wouldn’t commit too much exposure to him at this price, but he’s definitely someone to have in our player pools.
Patrick Reed $9,300 DK / $10,800 FD: 20% exposure – 30th – 32nd his last two events seems like the best indication that his game is clicking as he’s the type of player who doesn’t show us much before he pops off a win. He has yet to see ownership over 10% in GPPs so getting 30%+ leverage on him in MME GPPs is great considering how well he can play when everything is working.
$8,900 – $8,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Sungjae Im $8,800 DK / $10,300 FD: 15-20% exposure – If I’m suggesting BHA and Matsuyama, it would be a disservice not to include Im as he’s in the same realm of player as those two. There should be slightly less steam on him this week as the price is higher than I’d prefer, but I plan on playing all three in a couple lineups where I can fit them. His poa and easy course splits are massively in his favor so hopefully we finally see him break through in a spot where he’s expected to.
Bubba Watson $8,700 DK / $10,700 FD: 20-30% exposure – Slight discount on Bubba this week and even though he’s still not playing at Bubba levels, he doesn’t deserve to have his price slashed the week after making a cut. Over his last 50 rounds on fast greens, the only area he’s struggled in is around the green. As long as he’s hitting these greens in regulation he shouldn’t have to worry about scrambling.
Viktor Hovland $8,400 DK / $10,000 FD: 20% exposure – Last week’s performance was a bit of a disappointment, but it should keep his ownership down in all formats (as should the price bump). If not for a balky putter, I think he finishes inside the Top 25 and the narrative around him this week is much different. He was 13% owned in GPPs last week which was quite a shock, but I get that everyone was pumping his tires after the US Open.
Rory Sabbatini $8,500 DK / $9,400 FD:15-20% exposure – Rory is back in play after taking last week off following his 43rd place finish at the US Open. He’s playing the best of his career this year and outside of a hiccup at the Memorial his game has been sharp from all of the strokes gained metrics since April. I think he goes overlooked by the public and gives us a good opportunity to get some leverage on an in-form player.
<$7,900 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Byeong Hun An $7,900 DK / $9,900 FD: 15-20+% exposure – It’s tough to suggest anything outside of a Top 20 finish for BHA, but his game looks solid for the course and he has the poa splits to support a good week putting. We know his ball striking is on a whole other level, so really, we’re just hoping he doesn’t let us down on the greens. We won’t be alone in this play as he’s already being talked up quite a bit on Twitter.
Luke List $7,700 DK / $9,300 FD: 40% exposure – Stud off the tee ranking 38th in SG: T2G, great scorer firing over 50% of his scores on Par 5’s as birdie or better. If he finds anything in his putter this week he could find the Top 10 of the leaderboard.
Jimmy Walker $7,700 DK / $9,700 FD: 10% exposure – The form isn’t at a place where he stands out as a chalky value play, but he does have four cuts made in his last six events and has finished inside the Top 40 in three of those events. He’s a strong poa putter and he’s long enough off the tee to take advantage of this course.
Matthew Wolff $7,500 DK / $9,200 FD: 10% exposure – Wolffie fell victim to the MDF last week, but it was destined to happen as he lost strokes from tee to green and was bailed out by his scrambling and putting. Detroit Golf Club should suit his game a bit more and I expect the stats to correct themselves to the plus side of things. He’s a go in GPPs.
Hank Lebioda $6,900 DK / $8,000 FD: 30% exposure – We’re going back to Hank again this week following last week’s 51st place finish. He’s rarely owned in GPPs or cash games and has the poa putting splits in his favor this week. His approach game continues to bail out his off the tee game and the putter hovers around field average.
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odds
- Ted Potter Jr. $6,000 DK
- Morgan Hoffmann $6,000 DK
- Julian Etulain $6,000 DK
- Sam Burns $8,000 FD
- Cameron Tringale $7,900 FD
- Adam Long $8,000 FD
Last week’s hot takes
Top 10’s: Colin Morikawa (T36), Viktor Hovland (T54), Matthew Wolff (MDF)
Top 5’s: Jason Day (T8), Brandt Snedeker (T43)
Winner: Paul Casey (T5)
This week’s hot takes
Top 10’s: Patrick Reed, Viktor Hovland, Luke List
Top 5’s: Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker
Winner: Hideki Matsuyama