If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) $3MM Fantasy Golf Millionaire: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP – $20 entry; $1,000,000 to 1st,$100,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $500K Fore: 20 entry max – $4 entry; $50,000 to 1st, $25,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $75k Long Drive (Single Entry): $100 entry; $7,500 to 1st, $5,000 to 2nd
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK 3-max contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $500K PGA Big Cat Eagle – $15 entry, 150 entry max. $100,000 to 1st, $30,000 to 2nd
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Patrick Cantlay $8,200 DK / $10,100 FD
- Brooks Koepka $10,400 DK / $11,800 FD
- Dustin Johnson $11,100 DK /$12,200 FD
- Tommy Fleetwood $9,200 DK /$10,800 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list?Click here
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 15% owned)
- Emiliano Grillo $7,100 DK / $8,600 FD
- Cameron Smith $7,500 DK / $9,300 FD
- Eddie Pepperell $6,900 DK / $8,400 FD
- Ross Fisher $6,500 DK / $7,100 FD
- Matt Wallace $6,700 DK / $8,400 FD
Golfer Review:For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPP’s).
$11,000+ (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Dustin Johnson $11,100 DK / $12,200 FD: 20%+ exposure – DJ’s collapse at the RBC Heritage was a bit out of the ordinary, but while he’s a course fit regardless of the course being played, it didn’t suit his ideal game of bombing it off the tee and wedging in. This course however, should allow him to hit more drivers, allowing him to really set himself apart from the field. His putter will be put to the test, and if he’s not missing 5-footers, he should be in contention again. I still can’t believe he only has one major title. If its between Tiger and DJ, I’m taking DJ almost every time.
$10,900-$9,200 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Rory McIlroy $10,900 DK / $12,100 FD: 15% exposure – 31st – 24th – 10th is his history at Bethpage, the form is still elite even coming off his two worst finishes of the season at the Wells Fargo Championship (T8) and Masters (T21). His putting at the WFC is my biggest concern, because had he putt at field average he probably would’ve been breathing down Homa’s neck at the very least. That’s about all the bad things I can say about Rory, he’s in this article for a reason.
Brooks Koepka $10,400 DK / $11,800 FD: 40% exposure – Rinse and repeat with Brooks this week. Since 2015, Brooks’ major record looks like this T33 – T18 – T10 – T5 – T21 – T13 – DNP – T4 – T11 – WIN – T6 – T13 – DNP – WIN – T39 – WIN – T2. Nine Top 10’s including three wins in fifteen major appearances is quite the resume. In the last ten majors, Brooks is 55-under, which is 15 shots better than 2ndduring that same span (Rickie Fowler). I’m a bit concerned about all the social media BS between him and Brandel, but not enough to back off my exposure to him this week. Not because I think it makes him even hungrier, but because it’s just another distraction for a player whose sole purpose at work is to focus on winning events. I’m expecting a ton of ownership on him this week, which is why we’re going to make sure we’re double the field in our exposure.
Francesco Molinari $9,700 DK / $11,400 FD: 25% exposure – FMOL has been his old self as of late, which means we’re going to be early to the party on him. He’s accurate off the tee and deadly with his long irons which should be used often on this course. If the course is soft, it’ll play into his strengths even more. The last time he saw soft greens on a long course he beat the field by more than 5 strokes (even though it was a much weaker field).
Jon Rahm $9,500 DK / $11,200 FD: 25-30% exposure – If I like DJ & Brooks, it’d be criminal not to like Rahm this week as he has a very similar skillset to both of those players. His temperament will be talked about a lot this week, which should only make you want to play him even more (because we’ll probably get low ownership on him). He’s exactly the type of player we want to be playing at low ownership (as opposed to Jason Day, who’s getting talked up a bunch).
$9,100 – $7,500 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Xander Schauffele $9,100 DK / $10,900 FD: 40% exposure – To date, the only missed cut Xander has in a major (88% cuts made rate) is the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Not a bad start to his major resume if you ask me. Looking at his finishes you see he’s got four Top 6’s in eight events played. X brings us the safety of a guy who makes cuts and brings high upside to our lineups and while I think Rickie will yet again be chalky, I think the only way people play X is in balanced builds.
Tony Finau $8,800 DK / $10,700 FD: 20% exposure – 5th at Augusta and owner of five Top 10’s in majors since 2015. He’s missed the cut in two of twelve majors in his career, and looking at his PGA Championship history, it’s been his worst major. That being said, I think his game sets up well for Bethpage. Based on his price and the players in the same range, I think we can get a great player with high upside at a reduced ownership this week.
Patrick Cantlay $8,200 DK / $10,100 FD: 40%+ exposure – Cantlay’s major record since his return in 2017 is solid (5/6 cuts made, one Top 10) and last month’s Master’s was a good thing for him (in my opinion). He had the lead for a brief moment on Sunday at Augusta and while he did kind of eject on the final few holes, I think he’s the kind of player who learned from that moment. He learned how he reacts when the heat is on and will adjust the next time around. I’m sure you’ll hear plenty about how he’s a bad sand player this week and I’d like you to ignore it. Why? Because if he doesn’t hit his approaches into the bunker, he’s not going to expose his “bad bunker play”.
Bubba Watson $8,000 DK / $9,700 FD: 20% exposure – His history at Bethpage is strong (13th – 10th– 18th), ironically his best finish at any US Open the past 10 years was when it was held at Bethpage (five missed cuts, no Top 30’s since). His game this year has looked like bubba of the past as well, which leads me to believe we’re getting a good combo of course fit, fitting his eye and being in good spirits with his game. As of writing I’m not sure where he’ll come in ownership-wise, but he’s someone I’d look to throw in as a strong value play with upside.
Sergio Garcia $7,900 DK / $9,700 FD: 30% exposure – Expect massive chalk here based on his record at Bethpage (DNP – 3rd– 10th) as well as the great form he brings with him leading into the event (4th – MC – 8th – 54th). His putting has gotten increasingly better over the past couple events, which could be an anomaly, but with his superior ball striking and everything else stated above, he sets up as a strong value play.
Cameron Smith $7,500 DK / $9,300 FD: 20% exposure – Ranks 8th in the field in total strokes gained on poa greens in his last 24 rounds and plays much better on poa and on more difficult courses.
<$7,500 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Emiliano Grillo $7,100 DK / $8,600 FD: 20+% exposure – It pains me to suggest him as he’s so inconsistent with his putting (or maybe it’s that he’s consistently terrible which makes him look like a worse play come Sunday), but the price is far too nice and his skillset seems perfect for the course which may explain why/how he finished 2ndhere in 2016. We’ll know right away if he’s going to be a value play who pays off or ejects before he hits the 2ndnine on Thursday. So we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.
Eddie Pepperell $6,900 DK / $8,400 FD: 15%+ exposure – He’s #37 in the world, and definitely NOT priced as the 37thbest player in this field. This is a perfect situation to take a shot on a really good golfer whose obviously mispriced because DraftKings prices their players based on factors which make no sense. T51 in his Masters debut is forgivable coming off the strong PLAYERS performance. He’s a better player on tough courses. His ball striking is borderline elite and he typically gains strokes on the greens, so I see no reason in avoiding him. His ownership should be fairly low, so having him at around 30% exposure means we’ll have heavy leverage on the field.
Matt Wallace $6,700 DK / $8,400 FD: 15% exposure – Another Euro player who’s not getting any love is world #31 Wallace. He finished the T2 at the British Masters, so the form is there. T6 at the API and 2nd in Dubai shows us he’s able to contend in stronger fields despite missing the cut in his debut at The Masters last month.
Ross Fisher $6,500 DK / $7,100 FD: 15% exposure – Over his last 24 rounds on poa, he’s 1st in SG: APP, 15th in SG:T2G, but his overall ranking gets dragged by his putting and scrambling. He’s a better golfer than 100% of the golfers he’s priced with so he’d be the guy I’d look to in this range for cash and stars & scrubs builds.
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odds
- Scott Piercy $6,500 DK
- Matt Wallace $6,700 DK
- Julian Suri $6,400 DK
- Scott Piercy $8,100 FD
- Keith Mitchell $8,200 FD
- Jorge Campillo $7,100 FD
Last week’s hot takes
Top 10’s: Trey Mullinax (MC), Ryan Moore (T69), Aaron Wise (T43)
Top 5’s: Henrik Stenson (T20), Marc Leishman (WD)
Winner: Keith Mitchell (T59)
This week’s hot takes
Top 10’s: Francesco Molinari, Sergio Garcia, Matt Wallace
Top 5’s: Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm
Winner: Brooks Koepka