If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) $4MM Fantasy Golf Millionaire: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP that pays top 21% overall, min cash is 1.50x – $20 entry; $1,000,000 to 1st,$150,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $800K Fore: 150 MME GPP min cash is 1.6x – $4 entry; $50,000 to 1st, $30,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $50k Yellow Jasmine (5 entry max): $8 entry; $5,000 to 1st, $3,000 to 2nd, min cash is 1.9x.
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK 3-max contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $1MM PGA MEGA Eagle – $15 entry, pays out top 20%, 150 entry max. $200,000 to 1st, $50,000 to 2nd, min cash of 2x
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Matt Kuchar $7,900 DK / $9,700 FD
- Tommy Fleetwood $9,200 DK / $11,000 FD
- Paul Casey $9,000 DK /$10,800 FD
- Dustin Johnson $11,300 DK /$12,000 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list? Click here
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
**Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 15% owned)**
- Adam Scott $8,400 DK / $10,100 FD
- Bryson Dechambeau $9,300 DK / $11,200 FD
- Tyrrell Hatton $7,200 DK / $9,100 FD
- Lucas Bjerregaard $6,400 DK / $7,900 FD
- Kevin Na $6,500 DK / $8,100 FD
Golfer Review:For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPP’s).
$11,000+ (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Rory McIlroy $11,600 DK / $12,100 FD – 25% exposure – As I expected, the projected ownership gap on Rory & DJ is decreasing by the day, I still think they’re both great plays, but I’ll take the guy who’s in better statistical form right now and that’s Rory. His ball striking and tee to green game is off the charts good right now and he’s playing with a ton of confidence.
$10,900-$9,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Justin Rose $10,800 DK / $11,800 FD: 25% exposure – Rose is yet again someone I think could win The Masters and while he’s a perennial Top 10 machine in Majors, he does have some winning equity built into his game. He won the Farmers this year after a week where he looked like a 7 handicap with his new irons, and since then he’s only had one event where he looked like the winner we’ve grown accustomed to seeing week in and week out. If conditions get tough, I like him even more than I do in ideal conditions.
Rickie Fowler $9,700 DK / $11,400 FD: 15% exposure – “2nd – 11th – MC – 12th in his last four appearances, last year’s back door runner-up in the group ahead of the final pairing was basically peak Rickie as he was out of contention for the most part until making a run on the final seven holes. With the way he’s been playing this season, he’s sure to be as popular, if not more than usual and someone I’ll probably be fading based purely on ownership.”Is what I wrote in my preview, and because I’m a Rickie fan, I can’t fully fade him, so he gets as much exposure in my lineups as we’re expecting the field to have. His game is strong, he fits narratives and I really want him to win a major so I’m letting my bias get in the way this week.
Jason Day $9,100 / $11,300 FD: 25-30% exposure – This play is aggressive, but if it pays off it will do so in spades. Day’s game isn’t really any worse than any of the players priced around him this week and yet he’s going to go overlooked. His history here only includes one withdrawal (back in 2012) so I think we should be safe from a post tee-off WD and he presents the Top 5 upside we’re going to need to win GPPs.
Paul Casey $9,000 DK / $10,800 FD: 40% exposure – Casey is a solid play with course fit, course history, current form and not as expensive as the top of the board. My hope is that he gets overlooked as he’s priced $100 more expensive than Spieth (who’s currently falling back at the Valero after two solid rounds and what I can only expect is increasing ownership) and cheaper than Tiger, JT, Fowler and Bryson. He’s won on Tour in consecutive years now, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he finally put it all together at Augusta this year.
$8,900 – $8,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Jordan Spieth $8,900 DK / $10,400 FD:30% exposure – Jordan Spieth. Course history meets current form. Yes, this is the one place on earth where I feel course history matters. Yes, he’s been a stud here since his debut, but something isn’t right with his driving or his putting inside 5 feet. Those can be corrected for a short period of time (say, four days in April). Looking back at the past four years, his tee to green game was in a better place leading in, but I can’t get over how much he’s such a course horse until he burns me multiple times at Augusta. I feel like if you’re letting Twitter talk you off of Spieth, you deserve to lose all of your money when he’s not even priced at $9k.
Hideki Matsuyama $8,700 DK / $10,600 FD: 25% exposure – Matsuyama is a bomber who hits a ton of greens and typically has no idea where his ball is going to end up once the headcover comes off the putter. His history here indicates there’s a course fit as he’s only missed the cut at The Masters once in seven appearances and once he got accustomed to the greens his upside in finishing place shot up from an afterthought to someone who will probably win a green jacket by the time he retires.
Xander Schauffele $8,500 DK / $10,300 FD: 40% exposure – I expect him to be less owned than many think because of being sandwiched between Matsuyama, Molinari, Adam Scott, and Phil Mickelson and I believe he brings as much win equity as well as Top 5 probability as these players. This will be his second trip around Augusta for the Masters and we know that there’s a substantial amount of knowledge that’s gained after your debut.
Louis Oosthuizen $8,100 DK / $9,700 FD: 25%+ exposure – Oosty’s a bit of a course horse. He’s finished in the Top 20 in four of the last five editions of the masters and I feel like everyone remembers the runner-up finish where he almost dropped an albatross from over 230 yards (he ended up eagling the 2ndhole) and they’re hoping he can rekindle that magic every year at this event. We know he won’t withdraw pre-cut, so there’s a bit of reassurance in playing him and the form leading in is fantastic. If ownership is projected highly this week I may have to pivot to someone else and differentiate my lineups as my core is looking a bit on the chalky side.
<$7,900 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Matt Kuchar $7,900 DK / $9,700 FD: 40% exposure – He’s going to be chalky so we’re embracing the good chalk and doubling down on Kuch this week. He’s just a solid play almost every week and at this price I think it’s silly to fade him in any capacity. He has a strong history here, he’s from GA (probably has spent more time on the grounds than we know of) and comes in with solid form (even as of writing he’s in the Top 10 at the Valero). Play him in cash, play him in GPPs, he’s a stud golfer who’s probably going to be under owned this week because of “the heel turn” he’s done the past few months.
Sergio Garcia $7,700 DK / $10,000 FD: 20% exposure – Masters winner just two years ago, Sergio’s ball striking, and driving are still a mainstay in his arsenal and when combined with what he learned about himself finally breaking through as a major winner should be enough reason to play him at such a low cost. His putter hasn’t been on a whole different level as of late, but all it takes is a couple days to find that rhythm and Sergio will find himself on the first page of the leaderboard.
Ian Poulter $7,600 DK / $9,500 FD: 15% exposure – Poulter doesn’t fit the “target bombers” mold, but he does hit a ton of greens in regulation and is a good short game player. His form leading in isn’t eye popping, but prior to the last month or so, he rattled off four consecutive Top 6’s and even if it is narrative, a Masters win would land him the coveted bid to the World Golf Hall of Fame.
Tyrrell Hatton $7,200 DK / $9,100 FD: 40% exposure – I like Hatton this week IF conditions get gnarly. If not, I prefer RCB over him because of scoring upside. Hatton falls into the Willett-ZJ class of winning a low scoring, “tough conditions” Masters years. The course setup shouldn’t give him too many fits either, so let others fade him because of his temper and hope that we get what we’ve been waiting for since the 2016 Open Championship.
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odds
- Kevin Kisner $6,700 DK
- Lucas Bjerregaard $6,400 DK
- Francesco Molinari $8,600 DK
- Kevin Kisner $8,700 FD
- Lucas Bjerregaard $7,900 FD
- Thorbjorn Olesen $8,200 FD
Last week’s hot takes (Valero)
- Top 10’s: Luke List (MC), Joel Dahmen (T69), Billy Horschel (MC)
- Top 5’s: Abraham Ancer (T42), JB Holmes (MDF)
- Winner: Jason Kokrak (T7)
This week’s hot takes
- Top 10’s: Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey, Jordan Spieth
- Top 5’s: Jason Day, Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar
- Winner: Justin Rose