If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face. This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) $400K Club Twirl: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP – $44 entry; $100,000 to 1st,$40,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $600K Drive the Green: 150 entry max – $5 entry; $100,000 to 1st, $50,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $40K Long Drive (Single Entry): $100 entry; $4,000 to 1st, $3,000 to 2nd
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK 3-max contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $100K PGA Eagle – $7.77 entry, 150 entry max. $20,000 to 1st, $7,500 to 2nd
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Zach Johnson $9,600 DK / $10,300 FD
- Viktor Hovland $10,900 DK / $11,600 FD
- Collin Morikawa $10,700 DK /$11,700 FD
- Sungjae Im $9,700 DK /$10,800 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list?Click here
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 15% owned)
- Sam Ryder $7,500 DK / $8,900 FD
- Johnson Wagner $7,200 DK / $8,200 FD
- Denny McCarthy $7,500 DK / $9,000 FD
- Hank Lebioda $7,100 DK / $8,200 FD
- Doc Redman $7,200 DK / $8,300 FD
Golfer Review: For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPP’s).
$10,500+ (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Viktor Hovland $10,900 DK / $11,600 FD: 15%+ exposure – I think this is a good week to split exposure between Morikawa and Hovland. If you’re only able to play one of them, I prefer Hovi. They both have similar upside in my opinion, but Morikawa should be slightly higher owned because of his consistency since turning pro. Hovi’s form is great for someone who just turned pro too (13th – 13th – 54th – 12th).
$10,400-$9,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Joaquin Niemann $10,200 DK / $10,900 FD: 50% exposure – He’s expected to be the highest owned player this week, so in order to get leverage in MME contests we’re going to need to double up our exposure.He’s produced for those who have played him, finishing 23rd last week, 5th in Detroit and 5th at the Travelers. Putting held him back last week from a Top 10 finish, and his tee to green game has been absolute fire the past month so we’re not jumping ship.
Brian Harman $9,400 DK / $11,000 FD: 20% exposure – DNP – 10th– MC – 24thall come after the win here in 2014. His form indicates he’ll probably see some ownership as he’s got two Top 10’s in his last three events (missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage).
Daniel Berger $9,300 DK / $10,700 FD:20% exposure – Berger continues to go overlooked every week as he didn’t hit over 4% owned last week so maybe I’m alone in playing him, which is fine by me. His ownership seems to hinge on the bermuda putting splits being in his favor, but he’s no slouch on Bentgrass either as he showed last week finishing 15th and gaining almost a stroke on the greens. His tee to green game should shine again this week.
Sam Burns $9,100 DK / $10,100 FD: 20% exposure – Burns will probably be on the cusp of being not-so-contrarian, but I like how he sets up for Deere Run regardless. 7th last week in a score-fest following a 42nd at the first of the “tri-state score-fests”. He was 11% owned last week, so my hope is that he doesn’t eclipse the 15% threshold coming off a strong performance. He gained over 8 strokes from tee to green last week and was clicking on all cylinders.
$8,900 – $7,500 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Bud Cauley $8,700 DK / $9,900 FD: 20% exposure – This price range is full of players who should be low owned because of how roster construction is expected to play out so it might be beneficial to make some balanced lineups that feature Cauley & Dahmen as they both possess high upside scoring ability and are strong from the key stats that we’re targeting.
Joel Dahmen $8,400 DK / $9,200 FD: 20-30% exposure – Dahmen’s steam has cooled a bit as of lately which explains the pricing and expected ownership. He’s still an elite ball striker who flirted with a high finish last week for a bit, but ultimately came up short. Deere Run should provide him ample birdie opportunities.
Mackenzie Hughes $7,900 DK / $9,000 FD: 30% exposure – Last weekend’s slide might be this weekend’s fortunes for those of us who are planning on playing the Canadian. He’s made the last five straight cuts and given us an array of finishes during that span (best was 8th, worst was 66th). I like him in all formats again this week.
Denny McCarthy $7,500 DK / $9,000 FD: 15-20+% exposure – McCarthy is an odd duck. He doesn’t do anything consistently well, but when he makes cuts he finishes inside the Top 30 (which is perfect for our purposes). His putter has caught fire recently, having gained over 13 strokes on the greens, but he’s been less consistent off the tee and on approaches as of late (which has held him back). I think this course will be good for his game in all aspects.
<$7,400 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Doc Redman $7,200 DK / $8,300 FD: 20% exposure – Horrendous from a tee to green perspective last week in Minneapolis, but I think it was an outlier performance as he’d gained over 12 strokes from tee to green in his previous two events. He’s a very high upside play who will probably be a little less popular this week following last week’s early exit.
Johnson Wagner $7,200 DK / $8,200 FD: 20% exposure – 16th – MC – 5th – 5th in the last five years at Deere Run. 23rd last week after taking a month off following his last missed cut. Wagner’s a guy who returns to a course where he’s had success regardless of form and offers us some great value in a week where we’ll need it if we’re targeting the guys at the top.
Hank Lebioda $7,100 DK / $8,200 FD: 20% exposure – Hank is becoming “cheap CH3” in my eyes. He makes way more cuts than he misses, provides us with legitimate Top 30 upside and hasn’t been priced higher than $7,000 in ages. He’s fine for all formats this week.
Chad Campbell $6,500 DK / $7,100 FD: 10-15% exposure – Course history includes 7th & 12th in his last two appearances at TPC Deere Run which have been his best finishes in the last five years. He doesn’t have much form to speak of having missed his last two cuts and piling up finishes outside the Top 40 prior to that, but Deere Run seems to be his happy place as he’s an old journeyman who usually doesn’t have any form leading into this event.
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odds
- Robert Garrigus $6,300 DK
- Sam Saunders $6,500 DK
- Kelly Kraft $6,300 DK
- Andres Romero $7,500 FD
- Chad Campbell $7,100 FD
- Luke Donald $7,900 FD
Last Week’s Hot Takes
Top 10’s: Mackenzie Hughes (T66), Scott Piercy (T15), Nick Taylor (T46)
Top 5’s: Bryson Dechambeau (T2), Keith Mitchell (T66)
Winner: Tony Finau (T23)
This Week’s Hot Takes
Top 10’s: Mackenzie Hughes, Denny McCarthy, Hank Lebioda
Top 5’s: Joaquin Niemann, Collin Morikawa
Winner: Viktor Hovland