If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the club face.
This article will serve the same purpose for your DFS lineups every week, as we’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests this week
- DraftKings (DK) $600K Drive The Green: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP that pays top 20% overall, min cash is 1.50x – $5 entry; $150,000 to 1st, $70,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $400K Club Twirl: 150 MME GPP min cash is 1.5x – $44 entry; $100,000 to 1st, $40,000 to 2nd
- (DK) $40k Albatross: $12 single entry; $4,000 to 1st, $2,500 to 2nd, min cash is 2x.
- Satellites: If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK 3-max contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $125K PGA Eagle: $7.77 entry, pays out top 20%, min cash is 1.5x, 150 entry max. $25,000 to 1st.
This week’s expected chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Rory McIlroy $11,400 DK / $12,200 FD
- Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,500 DK / $9,900 FD
- Tommy Fleetwood $9,100 DK / $10,600 FD
- Jason Day $9,900 DK /$11,700 FD
- Justin Rose $10,700 DK /$12,100 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list? Click here!
This week’s low owned plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 15% owned)
- Si Woo Kim $7,800 DK / $9,200 FD
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat $7,100 DK / $9,500 FD
- Talor Gooch $6,800 DK / $8,800 FD
- Joaquin Niemann $6,900 DK / $8,700 FD
- Aaron Wise $7,000 DK / $8,800 FD
Golfer Review: For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPPs).
>$11,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Rory McIlroy $11,400 DK / $12,200 FD: 20%+ exposure – We get a unique week with Rory setting up as the chalkiest play on the board AND the defending champion. His form, paired with his excellent course history, make him the most obvious play in all formats (1AD included); just know, you’re not discovering a hidden gem this week. He seems like an obvious fade in GPPs based on the number of strokes he gained last year on the greens in the final round (putting has also been what’s held him back this year from winning).
$10,900 – $9,900 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Justin Rose $10,700 DK / $12,100 FD: 20%+ exposure – World #2 seems to be getting snubbed this week, probably because he hasn’t teed it up on the PGA Tour since his win at the Farmers, but he makes for a solid play in all formats this week, like usual. He finished 3rd here last year, making his third straight cut at this event, and has three other Top-10 finishes in the last ten years here.
Brooks Koepka $10,200 DK / $11,400 FD: 20%+ exposure – In typical Brooks fashion last week, he was basically ignored by the masses and turned in a runner-up finish at the Honda after missing what seemed like every putt in Mexico. With the focus on his game turning a corner, I’m sure he’ll see an increase in ownership this week, but not enough to drive him towards the chalk line, making him an ideal GPP target this week.
Jason Day $9,900 DK / $11,700 FD: 40% exposure – A winner here in 2016 (one of his best seasons on Tour) and someone who comes in with two straight Top-5’s on courses where he’s played well in the past has him on our radar this week as a high upside play. His path to winning lies solely in his putting, but not the obvious “he needs to make putts” type, but more-so making the unlikely 15-20’ putts for par to keep him in the hunt (which is something he often does).
$9,800 – $8,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Bryson Dechambeau $9,700 DK / $11,200 FD: 25%+ exposure – First in the field in birdie opportunities over his last 36 rounds, 4th in birdies made and coming off his surprising runner-up finish last year. Despite his play in Mexico, Bryson is still in form, and had he been able to figure out the greens, he would’ve finished much better than where he did. Let’s hope people back off with such a strong field this week.
Marc Leishman $9,500 DK / $10,800 FD: 25%+ exposure – Former winner of this event and someone who plays much better on Bermuda greens, Leishman looks like a guy we can load up on this week in GPPs. In his last seven events, he’s only lost strokes on the greens once (WGC Mexico – 62nd place finish) and has bounced back from poor finishes with Top-5’s the following event twice (4th at Genesis, 4th at ToC).
Hideki Matsuyama $9,300 DK / $11,000 FD: 30%+ exposure – 2nd in birdie opportunities in his last 36 rounds, but not exactly someone who’s been converting those chances at a high rate, Matsuyama brings a consistent tee to green game wherever he tees it up. In the last four months, when his putter hasn’t been god-awful, he’s finished 9th and 3rd. I think he makes for a better GPP game theory play than anything, as I expect most of the field will be off of him because of his propensity to lose strokes on the greens, more specifically on Bermuda grass greens.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,100 DK / $10,600 FD: 20% exposure – Tommy is the “cross your fingers and pray he’s lower owned than everyone thinks because of how bad his season has started” play of the week. We’ve all expected a big breakthrough for Tommy this season, and he has only turned in one Top-10 in four starts on the PGA Tour. A lot of that has been due to issues in one facet of his game in each start. His approach game in Mexico was an issue, the week before that it was his putting, and the week before that it was his driving and scrambling. If he can put it all together this week, we could get the Tommy we’ve been hoping for all year.
Francesco Molinari $9,000 DK / $10,700 FD: 15% exposure – Three Top-10’s in the last five years for the Italian Stallion have him in our sights as a strong play with some GPP potential, as he’s probably going to go overlooked in single entry contests (cash builds) and should only be a part of our competitions exposure in multi-entry GPPs.
Charles Howell III $8,600 DK / $10,000 FD: 15-20% exposure – He’s much better on poa/Bentgrass greens, but CH3 presents us some value in his good form and he’s back to being a weekly cut maker with Top-15 upside. He might even come in lower owned than usual, which is always a nice thing to see when playing someone as consistent as him.
<$7,900 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,500 DK / $9,900 FD: 30% exposure – The price is too nice here on DK, and because of that, he’s going to be chalky. However, the upside is far too great to fade at any capacity. On FD, he’s more of a fade for me this week.
Matt Every $7,400 DK / $8,400 FD: 10% exposure – He’s a better Top-20 or outright to win bet, but ignoring a two-time winner who is in form in DFS isn’t a smart decision, even if his talent is near the bottom half of the field. Anything can happen in four days, so I think he’s worth a small exposure if you’re playing multiple lineups.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $7,100 DK / $9,500 FD: 10% exposure – He’s a ball striking bomber who can putt. Not typically someone I prefer to play because of his inconsistencies on the PGA Tour, but the skillset is far too great to ignore at this price and expected ownership. Tread lightly, as he has been known to get crooked in ideal spots.
Joaquin Niemann $6,900 DK / $8,700 FD: 15% exposure – Niemann ranks highly in birdie opportunities this season and gains strokes off the tee as well as on approach. The layout of this course should provide Niemann an opportunity to add to his birdie opportunities this week.
If you’re looking for one-offs (less than 10% exposure) in MME contests, I prefer these players
- Sam Burns $6,300 DK / 8,300 FD
- Talor Gooch $6,800 DK / $8,800 FD
- Aaron Wise $7,000 DK / $8,800 FD
- Nate Lashley $6,900 DK / $8,500 FD
- Sam Ryder $6,700 DK / $8,500 FD
Below are the 6 best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odd
- Sam Burns $6,300 DK
- Talor Gooch $6,800 DK
- Ryan Armour $6,200 DK
- Sam Horsfield $7,000 FD
- Danny Willett $8,100 FD
- Matt Every $8,400 FD
Last week’s hot takes (Hero World Challenge)
*Correct picks in Green
- Top-10’s: CT Pan (MC), Zach Johnson (T59), Graeme McDowell (MDF)
- Top-5’s: Gary Woodland (T36), Billy Horschel (T16), Adam Scott (MC)
- Winner: Brooks Koepka (T2)
This week’s hot takes
- Top-10’s: Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Rafa Cabrera Bello
- Top-5’s: Bryson Dechambeau, Tommy Fleetwood
- Winner: Justin Rose