What’s up Mafia, welcome to The MLB Early Bird…
This article will focus exclusively on DraftKings and FanDuel Early Slates. It will be written to hopefully draw out some factors for CASH and GPP players on each slate. I will update as news break after 11am each day. Now let’s get started!
UPDATE #1: Coors PPD. Jordan Luplow (CLE) in 3 hole at $2K on FD. Adding Austin Meadows to Dong Detector.
Tampa Bay at Chicago (AL)
- Starters: Glasnow v Lopez
- Game Time Temp: 37 degrees winds 11 MPH in, 58% chance of rain
- Ballpark based off homers (2018): 7th LHHs, 6th RHHs
- Vegas: TB -140
K Street: Tyler Glasnow has come on strong to start the season, and Chicago has struggled this series. Glasnow’s price is higher than Boyd’s on both sites, but without the strikeout upside, I’d leave him in GPP only consideration. It’s worth noting in this series, the White Sox bats have struck out 25 times and sit bottom-3 in overall team hard-hit%. For the White Sox, Reynaldo Lopez steps on the mound against the red-hot Rays. This series, they have scored 15 runs and totaled 24 hits, and they have won three straight. Lopez has been throwing meatballs thus far, allowing three homers with 10 ER in just nine innings pitched. Yes, the Rays are prone to striking out against RHP, ranking 3rd most, but Lopez is the pitcher to attack today rather someone you’d want to roster.
Power Alley: The Rays rank 2nd in MLB with a team 44% hard-hit%, and against Lopez, the balls should be flying. Tommy Pham has a 58% hard-hit% over the last two weeks with a .368 xwOBA. He’s due for a big game, and Lopez is a great get right pitcher. Austin Meadows continues to rake and carries a 50% hard-hit% along with two homers off RHPs. He should continue to leadoff. Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz both have .350 plus xwOBAs v RHP this season. A Rays stack is most certainly in play.
Dong Detector: Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows.
Cleveland at Detroit
- Starters: Bauer v Boyd
- Game Time Temp: 46 degrees, wind 10 MPH towards RF
- Ballpark based off homers (2018): 17th LHHs, 13th RHHs
- Vegas: CLE -125
K Street: Trevor Bauer takes the mound against one of the league’s worst v RHPs. The Tigers this season have a high 100 Ks v RHPs. He’s a massive $12K on FanDuel, but on this short slate, he’s very hard to fade in CASH games. Matt Boyd comes into today with back-to-back 10 plus strikeout games, and the Indians lineup is a prime spot to continue that trend. So far, they have 33 SOs v LHP and an over .205 batting average in this short season. Both pitchers are in prime matchups for plenty of strikeouts. Boyd will probably draw more ownership because of price and with the fact most will be trying to fit Coors bats in somehow. As with Bauer, I am fine with Boyd in CASH.
Power Alley: Just like yesterday, the BVPers will like Miguel Cabrera. He had two hits off Kluber, but on a bigger slate, I prefer other options. If Bauer can hold off Miggy and Nick Castellanos, who is batting .270 against him, a great output like Kluber should be in store. For the Indians, the loss of Francisco Lindor to start the season has put some pressure on Jose Ramirez to carry the team offensively. So far, he hasn’t with a .171 BA and just two doubles. However, just like BVP, we have BVB. Ramirez loves Comerica; over the last two seasons, Ramirez has six homers, a .470 ISO with a 92.1 MPH aEV in 66 ABs. Against Boyd, he has a .363 wOBA and one homer in 18 ABs.
Dong Detector: None
Atlanta at Colorado Starters: Gausman v Hoffman Game Time Temp: 43 degrees, winds 19 mph in from CF, 53% chance of rain Ballpark for homers (2018): 4 th LHHs, 2 nd RHHs Vegas: TBD K Street: No shocker here, but FanDuel has left off Jeff Hoffman. DraftKings has him at $7.7K, which is surprising, but whatever. This game also has a high chance of a delay and/or PPD. Typically, I don’t like to use arms in Coors, especially not on a small slate for CASH. Both pitchers should be considered GPP only. Last game, Kevin Gausman struck out seven in seven scoreless innings. The Rockies do have eight homers off RHP, and Gausman has been known to give up the long ball. Last season, he had allowed 1.27HR/9 and more to RHHs on the road. Hoffman has thrown very little at the major league level and has battled injuries. If this game plays, the Braves bats are going to be very popular. Power Alley: It’s Coors; all bats on the Braves are in a great spot. Ronald Acuna has started to get hot and has four homers so far. Dansby Swanson has taken advantage of Coors’ light air with a homer last night. His price is $5k on DraftKings! The Rockies are in the same boat. Depending on the weather, stacking this game will be the ultra-chalk on this small slate. Dong Detector: TBD
San Diego at San Francisco
- Starters: Margevicius v Rodriguez
- Game Time Temp: 62 degrees, 11 MPH winds out to RF
- Ballpark for Homers (2018): 30th LHHs, 30th RHHs
- Vegas: SF -104
K Street: In the final game of the slate, we have some young pitchers who have also struggled out the gate. With this game starting at 3:45PM EST, it’s hard for me to see any ownership on either one. Dereck Rodriguez had only a 0.68HR/9 last year, because of the ballpark. He does limit fly balls, but this season, he’s given up two homers in 10 innings. The Giants offense has the 3rd least SO in all MLB. Nick Margevicius faced them 10 days ago and had 5 Ks, but since then, the Giants have added Tyler Austin and Kevin Pillar. Neither are exactly scary bats, but they are upgrades. With Margevicius most likely not getting past five innings, his ceiling will be low. I’d avoid both with the limited upside.
Power Alley: Again, not really the best ballpark to look for power, but this game might be driven by bullpens. Neither starter has pushed six innings all year, so some bats will have a few chances against relief pitching. Late day hammers, like Manny Machado, Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer make for a small stack that has upside in this type of game.
Dong Detector: None
SLATE POSITION BREAKDOWN
Pitchers: Bauer, Boyd, Glasnow (GPP)
Coors C, Zunino
Freeman, Austin, Yandy (DK), Choi
Albies, Lowe, Kinsler (DK VALUE)
Nolan, JRam, Manny
Story, Swanson, Tatis, Crawford
OF: HIGH $$$ –
Coors OF, Pham, Myers; MID $$$ – Meadows, Castellanos, A. Garcia; LOW $$$ – Pillar, Palka, G. Allen, Luplow