What’s up Mafia, welcome to The MLB Early Bird…
This article will focus exclusively on DraftKings and FanDuel Early Slates starting at 1:10PM EST.
Updates: 11:25am Pena is pitching for LAA. I am not sure if he’s starting since they have mixed reports. Pena does have a great matchup against the Tigers who suck against RHPs. Also I am fading Coors. I am not interested after some reports. I am not saying that it's not a huge advantage and if you MME you should have some exposure. I am a one lineup guy.
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Chicago (AL) @ Cleveland
- Weather: 75 degrees
- Vegas line: CLE -224
Game Notes:
Carlos Carrasco hasn’t been an ace thus far this season. He’s the highest priced pitcher, simply based off ceiling. This matchup can be a ceiling game against Chicago, who is striking out at a 26.1% K rate this season to RHPs. So far, he owns a 12.74 K/9, but he has been allowing 2.70 HR/9 at home.
The two bats Carrasco must worry about are Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada. They both have seven homers off RHPs, and for Abreu, his exit velocity is up 3 mph and batted ball distance is up 32 ft. He has three homers in the last five games. BvP wise, Abreu has two homers off him.
For the Indians bats, they rank dead last in ISO against LHPs this season and own the 2nd highest strikeout rate at 29%. Banuelos hasn’t been very constant, but this matchup has some upside as an SP2 on DK. RHHs have taken him deep four times across 15 innings.
Los Angeles (AL) @ Detroit
- Weather: 71 degrees, 16 mph winds in from RF.
- Vegas line: TBD
Game Notes:
No idea who is pitching for the Angels. Ryan Carpenter has been giving up the long ball in bunches this season. He has a 3.22 HR/9 and a .486 xwOBA. So, he’s a pitcher I think most will look to target.
Mike Trout is an obvious play who has the team high with .286 ISO v LHPs. From there, it’s Simmons and even old man Pujols. The hottest bat is Jonathan Lucroy, who homered last night, but I think he’s going to be resting. The Angels stack should be one we can build around with confidence.
Miami @ Chicago (NL)
- Weather: 67 degrees, winds 12 MPH to dead center
- Vegas line: CHC -202
Game Notes:
Trevor Richards has allowed 1.21 HR/9 this season and 50.5% flyball rate. His splits are interesting; he is hit hard by RHHs, at a 50% hard contact, but he’s allowing a 48% flyball rate to LHHs.
Despite last night’s game, the Cubs bats have been white hot. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, over the last 14 days, rank 2nd and 4th respectively in ISO. Bryant holds a 65% hard-hit%, the 2nd highest in MLB in that time frame. Javy Baez comes in at a 57% hard-hit%, and most of the lineup is sitting above 35%. Cubs bats and wind blowing out equal plenty of Dongs.
Yu Darvish faces the Marlins, who have been a dreadful this season. Miami ranks dead last with a .097 ISO this season as a team and currently own a 25% K rate. They rank 3rd overall in strike rate at 26% against RHPs. Darvish has 24.3% K rate but will give up the long ball and walks the most batters in MLB. With the K upside there, I am almost certain he’s going to be very chalky and #1 CASH pitcher with some risk.
San Francisco @ Colorado
- Weather: 38 degrees
- Vegas line: COL -151
Game Notes:
RHHs v Derek Holland have seven homers, which is a 2.42 HR/9. Here’s the chalk if this game plays. BvP plays also with Ian Desmond, Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon have a combined five homers and a .342 BAA Holland. Trevor Story still holds the team high in hard-hit% at 50%; he’s not taken Holland deep yet, but he has a .462 BAA him. Rockies stack is very much in play.
For SF, Kevin Pillar is always in play with a LHP on the mound, and he has taken Freeland deep once in only two at-bats. Buster Posey and Evan Longoria also have been lefty killers and also have BVP dongs off Freeland. Giants stack is also in play.
This game still has weather concerns, but if it plays, should provide plenty of fireworks.
Cincinnati @ Oakland
- Weather: 64 degrees
- Vegas line: OAK -146
Game Notes:
The pitchers in this game can provide value and a possible SP2. Chris Bassitt has the K upside, and the A’s staff have handled the Reds with ease so far in the series. An SP2 on DK or your main option with hopes of chalky Carrasco busting is an option.
Tanner Roark has a ballpark upgrade. He is only allowing a 0.91 HR/9, and in this matchup, I do have concerns. But he is also an option to try and save to pay up in Coors.
Khris Davis hasn’t homered since 4/12, and today against Tanner Roark, I think it ends. He owns a .290 ISO and a 51% flyball rate. He’s DTD, so I am hoping he is playing today. Roark has always been a GB pitcher, but that’s shifted in his early starts. His teammate Matt Olson is another bat that has a 45 plus hard-hit% and hits plenty of fly balls. Both have a good chance to go deep today.
SLATE POSITION BREAKDOWN
Please note: You can’t stack Coors on DK with high priced pitchers. This is based off best plays IMO at each position.
Pitchers: Yu, Carrasco, Bassitt, Roark, Pena
C: Posey, Davis, Perez, Ianetta
1B: Rizzo, Olson, Abreu
2B: Bote, Dietrich, Kipnis
3B: Nolan, Bryant, Moncada (PICK’EM here)
SS: Story, Baez, Rodriguez
OF: HIGH $$$ – Coors OF, Trout, Heyward ; MID $$$ – Davis, Dietrich, Senzel; LOW $$$ – Schwarber, Goodrum, Puig, Mac Williamson
Dong Detector: Bote, Moncada, Kipnis
Best of luck!
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