What’s up Mafia, welcome to The MLB Early Bird…
This article will focus exclusively on DraftKings and FanDuel Early Slates starting at 1:10PM EST.
Angels @ Twins
- Weather: 68 degrees
- Vegas line: MIN -134
Game Notes: FanDuel Only Game
Trevor Cahill has a 44.6% hard contact, and he is facing a Twins offense that rank 1ST in ISO and strikeout 3rd lowest against RHPs. Not ideal. The Twins projected 1-5 all have over a .200 ISO and a 36% hard-hit%! Cahill does generate 51% groundballs so we can look at bats that hit flyballs in this matchup. Max Kepler has the team high 47% flyball rate with Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco both over 45%.
Jake Odorizzi has been dealing his last five outings with 28 strikeouts and only 3 ER. He hasn’t allowed a run over the last three games. Odorizzi still has a high flyball rate of 48% but thus far has limited the long ball to 0.42 HR/9. For the Angels, projected leadoff bat Tommy La Stella has the team high in ISO of .341 against RHPs. He has nine homers off them also. I’d expect Kole Calhoun to be out of the lineup; he is 2nd on the team in ISO against RHPs. He also leads the team with 53% hard-hit%. Odorizzi has decent success against this lineup, and with Calhoun out, he is in play.
Orioles @ Yankees
- Weather: 62 degrees, wind 6 mph out to LF
- Vegas line: NYY -254
David Hess has allowed a 47.7% hard contact rate and 3.15 HR/9 to RHHs. The wind is blowing, and the RHH who should concern Hess is Gary Sanchez. Sanchez owns a 53.1% hard-hit% with an average 95.1 MPH exit velocity. His .358 ISO v RHPs is 10th overall in MLB. It’s a double-header so let’s hope he’s playing the first game.
For Happ, this Orioles lineup knows him very well. He has a 30% strikeout rate against them but has allowed seven homers to the projected lineup. Happ has been a flyball pitcher, and in Yankee Stadium, flyballs quickly become homers. RHHs have taken him deep eight times; six of those were in Yankee Stadium. The Orioles bat with the top ISO against LHPs is Trey Mancini at .230 and a 67% hard-hit% (after that Dwight Smith). Rookie Steve Wilkerson is still very cheap, and he has a 46% hard-hit% this season against LHPs.
Pirates @ Diamondbacks
- Weather: DOME
- Vegas line: ARI -155
Greinke faced the Pirates a few weeks back and dropped a 50 burger in a game in PNC. Today, the matchup is in Chase; a place Greinke has been much better than on the road. He has only allowed two homers in Chase this season and sports a 27% K rate there. Against this Pirate roster, he has a 30% K rate and a .221 wOBA allowed. The hottest bat is still Josh Bell; he hit his 12th and 13th homer last night and is top 8 in ISO v RHP in MLB. He’s really the only bat I would concern myself with and using him and Greinke is an option on a small slate.
Chris Archer is coming off the IL to start and isn’t expected to face any pitch restrictions. Archer has strikeout upside but has been allowing homers with a 1.64 HR/9 on the road. This Diamondback lineup only has a .147 ISO the last two weeks off RHPs, but they have some major BVP against Archer. Adam Jones has two homers and a .286 BAA. Also, David Peralta and Christian Walker have dominated RHPs. Walker sits at .303 in ISO and Peralta has a .265 ISO.
Blue Jays @ Giants
- Weather: LIGHT RAIN, 60 degrees
- Vegas line: TBD
Shaun Anderson (NOT ON FANDUEL) has been called up to start against the Blue Jays. He is the Giants top pitching prospect, and this is his debut. He had a 9.5 K/9 in Triple A. I will need to dig deeper if I would use him. Hitter wise, Vlad Jr. finally went deep last night and went deep again. Randal Grichuk has the team high in ISO at .211 overall. Justin Smoak has a 65% hard-hit rate and has a .251 ISO against RHPs.
Thomas Pannone will be starting for the Jays. Last season, he allowed seven homers to RHHs. The top bat for San Fran is Pillar. Kevin Pillar leads the Giants with a .275 ISO against LHPs. Brandon Belt sits a .252 ISO and leads them against RHPs with a .307.
SLATE POSITION BREAKDOWN
Pitchers: Greinke, Odorizzi, Archer
C: Sanchez, Severino
1B: Smoak, Mancini, Cron
2B: La Stella (DK), Villar, LeMahieu
3B: Escobar, Vlad, Gonzo
SS: Polanco, Torres
OF: HIGH $$$ – Trout, Peralta, Jones; MID $$$ – Mancini, Pillar, Hicks; LOW $$$ – Teoscar, Grichuk, Kepler
BVP DONG: Adam Jones
Tommy La Stella
Best of luck!