What’s up Mafia, welcome to The MLB Early Bird…
This article will focus exclusively on DraftKings and FanDuel Early Slates. It will be written to hopefully draw out some factors for CASH and GPP players on each slate. I will update as news breaks after 11am each day. Now, let’s get started!
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Arizona @ Atlanta
- Starters: Weaver v Soroka
- Game Time Temp: 78 degrees with 12 mph winds to LF
- Vegas: TBD
K Street: Soroka was called up from Triple A. He had a 3.51 ERA in a 26 innings last year. He’s $9.1K against the DBacks, who rank in the top 10 in ISO and hard-hit% against RHP. However, Soroka has limited the long ball at a rate of 0.96HR/9 with a 44% GB% in 2018. His price is way up there, and I am concerned about limited innings. Luke Weaver is coming off an 8 K game, but I am a tad worried about this ballpark and the increase in hard-hit% that has jumped 16%. I am very happy to play some Brave bats today.
Power Alley: For the Dbacks, Christian Walker has four homers and a .538 ISO against RHPs. He owns a 56% hard-hit% the last two weeks. For the Braves, all stacks start with Acuna. No need to explain. After him, Josh Donaldson has the 2nd highest ISO at .246 against RHPs. The stat that concerns is his nearly 50% groundball rate. I do love he’s sitting at 66% hard-hit% and has homered two of the last four games.
Chicago (AL) @ Detroit
- Starters: Nova v Ross
- Game Time Temp: 67 degrees with 17 MPH across the field
- Vegas: TBD
K Street: Detroit continues to strikeout against RHPs and ranks 2nd most in MLB. They are also 29th in Team ISO. Nova has had two solid outings. The matchup on paper is/seems ideal. I expect the Tigers to be without their hottest hitter, Christin Stewart, who left last night game. Tyson Ross will face a team that has 28% K rate against RHPs and ranks 28th in hard-hit%. Ross has a 24% K rate against this CWS roster. Ross will possibly see a Moncada-less lineup after he left yesterday’s game. Both have K upside with the matchup, and I am fine with them in CASH.
Power Alley: The White Sox have five players with a .200 plus ISO. The hottest bat is by far Yoan Moncada. Moncada has an aEV of 96.8 MPH with a 53% hard-hit%. His xwOBA sits at .428 and a 47% FB rate. Over the last two seasons, he has homered 20 times off RHPs. Only two off LHPs. But, Moncada left yesterday’s game with a head injury. Hopefully, he plays. I have no interest in the Tigers bats.
San Francisco @ Washington
- Starters: Pomeranz v Corbin
- Game Time Temp: 78 degrees with 10 MPH winds to left center
- Vegas: WAS -201
K Street: Corbin owns a 31% K rate overall, but against this Giant’s roster, it is cut in half to 16.7%. BVP wise, the main damage has come from Brandon Crawford via the long ball, twice, in 40 ABs. His price is way up there, but his upside is very hard to fade in CASH. Drew Pomeranz has been Mr. Consistent so far this season with 5 plus Ks in each outing. His price is low, but I don’t think the upside is there for a FanDuel slot; however, on DraftKings, he’s a fine SP2.
Power Alley: Kevin Pillar has three homers off LHPs and a .455 ISO this season. Also, the other newly acquired Giant, Tyler Austin, should be back in the lineup. Austin has a .313 ISO against LHPs. The Nationals have faced limited LHPs this season, but in 9 ABs v LHP so far, Anthony Rendon has a massive .857 against them. Yes, that’s a very small sample, but in 2018, he had a .277 ISO against LHPs.
Toronto @ Minnesota
- Starters: Buchholz v Pineda
- Game Time Temp: 48 degrees with 11 MPH winds
- Vegas: MIN -176
K Street: This game has the best pitching environment weather wise. Michael Pineda continues his comeback tour today at home against the Blue Jays. He has topped nearly 17 DK points each outing with 5 Ks each game. The Jays have a 28.7 K% against RHP. Pineda, depending on the lineup the Jays rollout, is in line for another 15-plus fantasy point game. Clay Buchholz made his debut against the red-hot Rays and handled them well, earning a QS. The lack of K potential limits his upside, and before I play him, I need to see more Ks.
Power Alley: The Twins own the 5th best ISO against RHPs this season, and their top bat is Jorge Polanco with his .395 ISO. Next up is Max Kepler at .263. I am fine with a Twins stack here. If you are fading Pineda, using bats like Randal Grichuk and Justin Smoak are two bats with homer potential. Freddy Galvis is cheap on FanDuel and somehow has five homers this season. I am fine with him.
SLATE POSITION BREAKDOWN
Pitchers: Corbin, Nova, Pineda
C: Gomes, Castillo, Kratz
1B: Freddie, Walker, Abreu
2B: Albies, Kendrick, Harrison
3B: Moncada (DTD), Rendon, Donaldson
SS: Polanco, Galvis, Crawford (BVP/PUNT FD)
OF: HIGH $$$ – Acuna, Kepler, Peralta; MID $$$ – Soto (FD), Goodrum, Grichuk; LOW $$$ – Pillar, Inciarte, Tyler Austin (DTD)