What’s up Mafia, welcome to The Early Bird. This article will focus exclusively on FanDuel’s 4
UPDATE: A few bats sitting. Kris Bryant, Luke Voit
Baltimore at Boston
Starters: Cashner v Porcello
Game Time Temp: 62 degrees, 82% humidity, winds 9mph to left center.
Ballpark based off homers (2018): 29thLHHs, #13 RHHs
Vegas: BOS -236
K Street: Baltimore owns a 21% K rate against RHHs and a .150 ISO. Porcello had a 43% FB% last year to LHHs and gave up 13 homers. Cashner has been hit or miss this season but against Boston historically, he’s been decent. He’s allowed just 1 homer and the starting lineup is 8 for 32 against. At $6100 on FD, he’s GPP.
Power Alley: Dare I say Chris Davis homers tomorrow? Damn right. If he’s in the lineup, he’s still $500 on FD and has 4 homers off Porcello in 50 at bats. Mancini has had some success in Fenway batting .364 with 3 homers. Boston’s bats have 9 homers off RHP this season and even if Cashner trolls the first 5 to 6 innings, the bullpen will be in at some point. They have allowed 3.64HR/9. I expect high ownership on these bats, and I am fine with playing a few despite the history v Cashner.
Chicago (AL) at New York (AL)
Starters: Nova v Sabathia
Game Time Temp: 66 degrees, 5 mph to LF
Ballpark based off homers (2018): #1 LHHs, #3 RHHs
Vegas: NYY -174
K Street: The Yankees have the 3rdhighest ISO against RHPs. Even without Sanchez, the matchup against Ivan Nova is a great one. Last season, he had a 1.49HR/9. This Yankee’s lineup is depleted but their power is always in play. The team is only striking out 21% v RHP. C.C. debuts for his 18thseason, after starting on the IL. I’d imagine that he will be on a pitch count, so I’d rather not use him today.
Power Alley: High scoring affair last night and I’d expect it again this afternoon. Bronx Bombers destroy RHP. Frazier, Torres, Voit and Judge all have a .300+ ISO this season against RHP. Yankees should be a popular stack.As for Chicago, Eloy Jimenez has finally gone deep. However, the White Sox have one homer off LHP this season. Wellington Castillo and Tim Anderson have seen some success against C.C. Both have taken him deep. This lineup is ugly but can be a nice sneaky stack in GPPs.
Detroit at Minnesota
Starters: Ross v Pineda
Game Time Temp: 38 degrees, winds 10 mph to right field.
Ballpark for homers (2018): #15 LHHs, 8thRHHs.
Vegas: MIN -171
K Street: Tyson Ross has been a pleasant surprise thus far. The environment is great for pitching and Ross faces a team with a 20% K rate v RHP. Ross had 8 strikeouts last game and a 50 burger. Michael Pineda is the most expensive pitcher on the 4-game slate. He’s facing the team that strikes out the most against RHPs. Upside is there and with a chance at 8 plus Ks.
Power Alley: Mitch Garver has been on a heater to start the season with a massive .667 ISO v RHPs. If he’s in the lineup, he’s worth consideration.Jorge Polanco is the bat that really pops. He has a 54% FB% and 27ft increase in batted ball distance. Add in a 14% increase in hard-hit%, it all adds up to a DONG DETECTOR spot.
Niko Goodrum is seeing similar stats to Polanco. He’s jumped up 22ft in batted ball distance and 17% in hard-hit%. His teammate Christin Stewart has some popping states with a 56% FB rate and 36% hard-hit rate. Each are more of GPP one-offs.
Starters: Stratton v Hendricks
Game time temp: 50 degrees, 11 mph to right field
Ballpark for Homers (2018): #25 LHHs, #6 RHHs.
Vegas: CHC -171
K Street: The 11 mph winds will make the game very interesting for pitching if they stay blowing out to RF. Hendricks has allowed 3 homers to this lineup and has seen his batted ball distance increase by 25ft. Stratton has been trending the other way and has been keeping balls on the ground. He has allowed one homer this season. However, he has just 2 Ks total after 2 starts. Blah.
Power Alley: Winds will play a part. The Cubs are 7thin homers v RHP. Anthony Rizzo had a big game yesterday. He’s had a 4 MPH increase in EV the last 15 days and upped his flyballs by 13%. He’s another Dong Detector player. As for an Angel bat, Tommy La Stella, former Cub, has been 0-4 since his back to back homer games. His increased his flyball rate by 15% and his hard-hit% by 6%. He’s my longshot Dong Detector player.
Slate Position breakdown:
Pitchers: Pineda, Ross, Cashner
C: Contreras, CWS Catchers
Voit, Rizzo, Mancini, Chris Davis
2B: Descalso, La Stella
Bryant,Candelario, Moncada, Moran (DK)
SS: Torres, Polanco, Mercer
OF: Kepler, Clint Frazier,
Goodrum, Schwarber, Eloy Jimenez, Calhoun
Dong Detector: Jorge Polanco, Anthony Rizzo, Tommy La Stella
BVP Dong: Chris Davis.
DK: Snell, Freeland, Cervelli, Ray LHHs, Adam Frazier