What’s up Mafia, welcome to The MLB Early Bird…
This article will focus exclusively on DraftKings and FanDuel Early Slates starting at 1:10PM EST.
Seattle at Boston
- Weather: 68 degrees
- Vegas line: BOS -188
Game Notes: FanDuel Only Game:
Felix Hernandez has allowed 10 ER the last 2 games and today against the Red “Socks”, he should only add to that total. Mitch Moreland has been en fuego lately. He has taken King Felix deep twice in 55 at bats. He leads the team in ISO against RHPs. Michael Chavis and Mookie Betts lead the team in wOBA against RHPs. Red Sox stack will be very much in play.
Rick Porcello is allowing more homers to RHHs this season, so that’s great for E5. If you have followed the Dong Detector; Edwin v FLYBALL RHPs. He has 10 homers off RHPs this season. After that Daniel VogelDong owns a team high .370 ISO with a 44% hard-hit%. Since we are on FD, we can play both. Seattle’s outfield bats are also in play.
Detroit at Minnesota
- Weather: 62 degrees
- Vegas line: Min -157
Spencer Turnbull has been a dominant pitcher so far and has only allowed 2 ER in the last 4 games and hadn’t allowed a homer since 4/11. However, this Twins team is VERY scary. They have the MLB high in team ISO at .237 and 55 homers, 2ndmost v RHPs. Turnbull is GPP worthy with high reward, high risk.
Michael Pineda is coming off a season high 8 strikeouts and now gets his second chance to face this Tigers offense. They still rank 2ndin strikeouts and a team .145 ISO v RHP. Pineda is in a great spot that can warrant usage as an SP1 on FD and an excellent SP2 on DK.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
- Weather: 49 degrees, rain 56% chance
- Vegas line: STL -172
This game on this small slate seems like on where you can use either of these arms. Mikolas after a horrible April, has had two solid games without allowing a homer. The LHHs are the ones that Mikolas will need to handle if he’s going to have another good outing. Josh Bell still ranks top bat against RHPs with 7 homers and a .396 ISO off them this season. Gregory Polanco has a .315 xwOBA against Mikolas including 1 homer.
Jordan Lyles has also been a great pitcher over his last 2 starts, an hasn’t allowed a homer since 4/24. Lyles is striking out LHHs at a 26.7% rate, but these Cardinals don’t have may LHHs. The Cards power RHHs (Goldy, Ozuna, Martinez) each have homers off Lyles.
Milwaukee at Chicago (NL)
- Weather: 48 degrees, light rain
- Vegas line: CHC -143
Ryan Braun: 13-46, 3 homers, .410 xwOBA; .250 ISO v LHPs
Christian Yelich: 7-25, 1 homer, .491 xwOBA; .419 ISO v LHPs
Lorenzo Cain: 5-16, 1 homer, .443 xwOBA; .342 ISO v LHPs
Kris Bryant: 14-38, 2 homers, .355 xwOBA; .350 ISO v RHPs
Willson Contreras: 7-26, 2 homers, .356xwOBA; .370 ISO v RHPs
Kyle Schwarber: 3-21, 2 homers, .400 xwOBA; 143 ISO v RHPs.
As great as the BVP is above, both starters have been some of top pitchers this season. Davies is limiting hard contact to 29.5% but only has a 12.5% K rate. Hamels is the opposite. He is at a 46% hard contact and a 25% K rate. Despite the BVP, I can only use either pitcher at this point in GPPs.
Chicago (AL) at Toronto:DraftKings games ONLY
- Weather: DOME
- Vegas line: TOR -168
Another BVP heavy matchup in this game. Ivan Nova has allowed 3 homers to this current roster. Toronto’s top ISO bats are Tellez, Smoak and Grichuk, two of those have homered off Nova. We already have listed several 1Bs with great matchup and I think game, with Abreu, have the same upside but will ring very low ownership. Vlad Jr has seen the hype train slow down, but he still owns a 47% hard-hit% and a batted ball distance of 330 ft against RHPs. He is due to homer.
Stroman continues to be an extreme GB pitcher but at home, he has allowed two homers to LHHs. As always, Yoan Moncada is the bat to start with against righty. Yonder Alonso has a 51% hard-hit % and of course Jose Abreu has some nice BVP. Overall, the White Sox as a team have a 26% strikeout rate. Stroman is an option.
Los Angeles at Baltimore
- Weather: 64 degrees, light rain
- Vegas Line: LAA -128
Where to start. BVP of course is Mike Trout with 2 homers and a .736xwOBA off Dylan Bundy. Bundy continues to give up the long ball with a 2.27HR/9 this season. 5 of the 6 homers to RHHs, have been in Baltimore. He owns a 48% flyball rate and a massive .502 xwOBA against the Angels roster. Shohei Ohtani had 20 homers off RHPs last year and the matchup looks like an ideal one to start his season total.
Matt Harvey owns a 1.57hr/9 and just like Bundy, the ballpark won’t be doing any favors. Against LHHs, he’s been allowing 1.94hr/9 so bats like Villar, Dwight Smith Jr and Crush Davis are in play. Smith has a .224 ISO against RHHs which leads the team.
Cleveland at Oakland
- Weather: 65 degrees
- Vegas Line: CLE -128
Trevor Bauer ranks head and shoulders over the rest of the pitchers in these slates and in a pitcher park, paying up for him, is tough. He has been hit harder outside of Cleveland, and he allows 1.05hr/9 on the road. His K% drops on the road to 26%. This A’s team is without Khris Davis, who has a .417 BAA and one homer against Bauer.
Aaron Brooks is limiting hard contact and flyballs. He hasn’t allowed a homer to a lefty. Cleveland with all their switch-hitters, can go very much lefty and in this ballpark, Brooks seems to be an option as an SP2 on DK. The two things that are not ideal in DFS are his 5.90 xFIP and his slate last 10% K rate so I can’t use him on FD. He does face the Indians who have the 29thranked ISO against RHPs.
SLATE POSITION BREAKDOWN
Pitchers: Bauer, Pineda, Stroman, Nova, Brooks
C: Contreras, Cervelli, Garver
1B: Edwin (FD), Bell, Goldy, Aguilar, Tellez
2B: La Stella, Frazier, Chavis (FD), Villar
3B: Bryant, Moncada., Vlad Jr.
SS: Bogaerts (FD), Baez, Polanco, Simmons
OF: HIGH $$$ –Trout,Yelich, Betts (FD),Smith Jr.
OF: MID $$$ – Haniger (FD), Santana (FD), Braun, Ohtani, Grichuk
OF: LOW $$$ –Schwarber, Bruce (FD), Wilkerson, Martin, Teoscar
Dong Detector: : Edwin (FD ONLY), Josh Bell, Vlad Jr., Ohtani
Best of luck!